Difficulty (maybe price..) will adjust so that ROI for a miner is sane.. say 100% ROI between 1 and 3 years.
This only changes when the TH/$ changes... and currently doesn't seem like it will much. Only asicminer can drive it the furthest as they have the cheapest marginal cost to add hash power.
It is growingly rapidly because the ROI is, even still, insanely good for asics. It has been, and still is, SUPPLY contrained. demand is insane as it always has been. When BFL's backorder is shipped, Avalon chips all delivered, asicminer hardware is online and ROI is like 9 months, it will grow much, much more slowly. then jump when KNC delivers, and perhaps when bitfury ships. After that, what? Are people going to be spending thousands that might pay itself back, if everything goes ok, in 18 months? and more likely will be more than that as the network will still go up as AM and some others add hardware
This level of growth will stop if only because people can't afford to keep doing it, and it would be stupid to add hashing power unless prices goes up. Since it's stabilized, and dropped so much to get to this point, it looks like the frenzy should be over after a few months.
Topic: Asic Profit Speadsheet (Google Docs) v1.0.0 (Read 1388 times)
Nice...
That is similar to my spreadsheet.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/google-doc-with-exponential-fit-lead-time-and-linear-rate-target-236050
I used Wolfram Alpha to do some modeling of the difficulty growth since February to current.
Exponential best fit least squares gave R2 of 0.999897!
Feel free to play around with it too...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc&usp=sharing
Wolfram Data:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31000000%7D%7D
That is similar to my spreadsheet.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/google-doc-with-exponential-fit-lead-time-and-linear-rate-target-236050
I used Wolfram Alpha to do some modeling of the difficulty growth since February to current.
Exponential best fit least squares gave R2 of 0.999897!
Feel free to play around with it too...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc&usp=sharing
Wolfram Data:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31000000%7D%7D
It won't keep growing at 20% forever.
By the time the network reaches 2,000 THash/sec (it is ~285 THash/sec today so that is only a 7x increase) a K16 board will take roughly 12 months to payback at current BTC prices.
It was at this payback range that people stopped investing in more GPU or FPGA equipment and the network hashrate flattened and even decreased for a period during 2012.
I expect we will hit 2,000 to 3,000 THash and then purchases will slow or even stop unless: 1) BTC rise in price significantly or 2) ASICs decrease in price significantly (in terms of $ per GHash).
But yes, it would be best to get your ASICs as soon as possible....
By the time the network reaches 2,000 THash/sec (it is ~285 THash/sec today so that is only a 7x increase) a K16 board will take roughly 12 months to payback at current BTC prices.
It was at this payback range that people stopped investing in more GPU or FPGA equipment and the network hashrate flattened and even decreased for a period during 2012.
I expect we will hit 2,000 to 3,000 THash and then purchases will slow or even stop unless: 1) BTC rise in price significantly or 2) ASICs decrease in price significantly (in terms of $ per GHash).
But yes, it would be best to get your ASICs as soon as possible....
I posted the spreadsheet I have been using to look at profitability / ROI on asics.
Download it, enter your gh/s, and then put a 0 in the last column (Bitcoin) on the period which you will receive your asic.
By my calcs, at 20% diff increase each period, 200 gh/s worth of October 31st BitFurry will never pay off.... comments welcome.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj1A1CpHLPy-dGkxekZpWXg2UEllM1EwejEwNVdqbGc
or click on it from
http://allchains.info
Download it, enter your gh/s, and then put a 0 in the last column (Bitcoin) on the period which you will receive your asic.
By my calcs, at 20% diff increase each period, 200 gh/s worth of October 31st BitFurry will never pay off.... comments welcome.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aj1A1CpHLPy-dGkxekZpWXg2UEllM1EwejEwNVdqbGc
or click on it from
http://allchains.info
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