Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 941. (Read 3917058 times)

remember that all the last few posts are not considering the BTC world as a whole. Here in the USA selling your BTC to get cash has been restricted this restriction could force BTC "underground".  This idea of the value of a BTC stands apart from the risks of AM.  Simple example all above ground purchases and sales of BTC get banned.         
    This drives price down to 50 USD per btc   so your AM selling at 4 BTC a share or 3 BTC a share lost value  if you want to convert it to USD.  Or any country for that matter if they restrict BTC.

+1
There are two things will affect the share price ,First is assets capability to generate dividend, second things is share value adjusting with competitors.
If there are not other assets operating likes AM which is mining and sale hardware and trading in public exchange ,then the second assumption is invalid.

So ,the share price is only related to the assets capability to generate dividend, As long as AM still pays highest dividend compare with all other assets. I would see that price will continue but slowly go upward ,then stoped util AM pays slightly higher dividend than other assets.(at that time we will see that those 1/100 shares will have higher price than the PT, because price of P-T shares prevent some small investors to buying it and equal to entry barrier.)

I think your maths is right but when you say "break even", you are just including the dividends.

Many "real" companies don't pay dividends, and for those that do, you would never get your money back in a year and a half. More like twenty or thirty years in most cases.

As for the share price, who knows? Nobody knew at the IPO shares (0.1 BTC) would hit 3 BTC. Nobody knows today what the price will be in 6 weeks, let alone 6 months or a year.

That's why its best not to sink your life savings into this, or any other kind of "investment" come to think of it 

Tell me any investment you get 1% intrest per week ! Why has a share to break even? You can sell it anytime and maybe even higher that 2.5 or 3.x

Edit: the post above gives you a better answer. But be careful, you seem a little too positive, there are big risks here and you should be aware of them.

Well, you are forgetting that your share entitles you to dividends in perpetuity. These dividends are based on mining output of a growing mining operation, and hardware sales. Assuming that AM can keep expanding their mining farm, and keep up with the growing network, and that they remain competitive in releasing new mining HW for sale (and use themselves), then the share price will largely remain firm, and likely rise. As long as the price + all dividends you have received is higher than the price you paid, you are at break even, or profitable.

If they can not keep up, then we don't know where the share price will end up. (on the downside). It does however get ugly fast and 0.5 could be quite possible. I do not consider this a likely scenario however, because Friedcat has exceeded almost all overall expectations of investors to date.

According to my most favorable long term valuation estimations, a share price of 5.75btc has about a 25% chance of happening.

For this to happen two things would have to occur.

1) ASICMINER can keep paying on average at least 0.015 btc dividends per week. To do this they would need to maintain about 15% of the network over the long term. If they drop below 15% they could make up for it in increased HW sales. This rate is lower than their current average income generation, so I am arbitrarily putting a 50% probability on them being able to do this.

2) People would have to accept lower annual yields. I am estimating ~13% as a reasonable APY for a consistently delivering BTC stock, that has strong management and a long term consistent track record. (As time goes on and Asicminer delivers consistently on point #1, I expect the trust the community places in them will continue to grow. I give this a 50% probability as well.

Of course only time will tell if Asicminer can deliver, and if they do whether the market recognizes them as a BTC "Blue Chip" and adjusts it's valuation and expectations accordingly.

I would have posted this in speculation, however, I think since a) the question wasn't in speculation and b) it's more of an "investment/valuation" question, I feel it's ok to respond in this thread.

Two things my simplistic model does not take into account are revenue from transactions, and block award dropping, as we have no way to know if these won't just cancel each other out.


EDIT: Adding some other really rough and ballpark scenarios:
25% - AM is overcome by the competition and downward price spiral begins: Price could fall very far.
40% - AM struggles a bit but largely stays competitive but doesn't maintain clear leadership: price probably remains in the 2-3.5btc range
10% - AM does what I said above and market doesn't give them a strong valuation: 3.5-5.5btc range.
25% - AM does what I said above and market recognizes them as leader: price could go as high as 5.75btc

-helixone

Sorry that was a typo. It was meant to read "if the dividend remains at ~BTC0.03? Or is it possible the dividend will hit BTC0.5?"

But I've got the answers I was looking for. Thanks everyone

If your "break even" means double your assets (in forms of BTC and AM shares), then yes, it will probably take a year and a half at the current pace. The BTC0.03-ish is the current weekly dividend, not the share price. The weekly dividend is bounded by BTC0.1.

It's a share of a company. Depending on how good they do the value of the shares may change over time and it's possible that they hit 0.5 or 5.0 Btc.
The dividends can also vary a lot, so a certain risk is still there.
But there is less pressure to break-even in comparison to those Mining-bonds, because it's unlikely that the share will be worthless soon.

share price generally rises slowly, and plus you get dividends every week from mining profits and also hw sales profits from AM,

so in 1 year you would get dividends worth how much you would pay for a share, but in that one year you still have your share, so you can always sell it for its risen price for even more profit,

hope i explained it better,

ofcourse just speculating here

Could someone please explain something simple to me....I don't get the share/dividend pricing.

Please correct where I'm wrong:
I pay BTC2.5 or BTC3 a share and I will get BTC0.03 in dividends week?
If so if my math is correct it will take me a year and a half to break even if the share price remains at ~BTC0.03? Or is it possible the share price will hit BTC0.5?

Is this a long term investment plan and am I being too short sighted?

Thanks!

As in, "Oh shit, I can no longer access my assets and funds. As soon as the site is back up, time to cash out"

How do you panic sell, when the site is down?

Trying to get people to panic sell, don't give in.

Been down for 2 hours or so.

Yes, it's currently down. No official word on cause and ETA yet.

Is anyone else having trouble accessing btct.co?

I'm using Chrome Version 27.0.1453.116 OSX - works fine. Sounds like a beta issue then? But also fails on some Windows systems apparently.

I also have problems with Chrome 28.0.1500.52 beta and Opera 12.13, but no problems with Safari (all OSX). Didn't try Firefox.

great analysis on this. we need to weed out the scammers.