Topic: Asics are scam nothing will arrive and it will be the end of bitecoin (Read 16277 times)

It's economics

this is not asics. THIS IS SHIT.

Pricing will come down when there is more competition, the only reason it is so expensive is because only 1 supplier currently controls the market of readily available ASICs, give it a couple of months and prices should be less than a quarter of their current price.

they are here yes, but they are a scam, too overpriced

lol at 50 btc for 10Gh or 2 btc for 300MH, this is the definition of legal scam

ASIC devices and chips are slowly making it on to the seen.  They are arriving.  They are not a scam.

If you want to buy an ASIC device.  Buy a few USB ASIC Block Erupters.  Join a buy group.  This buy group needs orders for about 40 more unit.

European Buy Group
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/gb-usb-asic-miner-closed-and-completed-195037

People believe it because that's how it is. The "general purpose chip" is not doing the bulk of the computing, and requires a ton of RAM. If you think someone will make some sort of super-ram for scrypt mining, maybe you can share your thoughts on that, otherwise it's pretty clear ASICs hold little scrypt potential ATM

Because it will be expensive.

HELLA expensive. You need the fitting RAM on it. If a 7970 at 700kh/s needs around 1.5gb of GDDR5 ram, consider what amount you need to make a 5MH/s Scrypt miner.  (The answer is around 64gb GDDR5 ram)

Let's look at a bit of history.

Bitcoin started out with no vendor support, nothing you could buy with them, and CPU mining.

Then came multi-core cpu support. The sky did not fall.

Then game GPU support. The sky did not fall.

Then came FPGA's, which are still quite viable. The sky did not fall. Bitcoin now has more acceptance and is higher in price than ever before, minus a few weird trading days a few weeks ago.

People are still mining with GPUs, CPUs, FPGAs and whatever else they can get their hands on.

In fact, I just set up my mother-in-law's 10 year old single core Pentium 4 to mine BTC, and its pulling at 11 Mh/s !!! Whoo !!

So, the sky will not fall, and life will go on. BTC's will continue to be generate. If it's not Avalon, or BFL, it will be somebody else coming up with something creative.

I'm optimistic. So, optimistic, in fact, that I just started mining last week, and ordered another case and another motherboard to re-use an old processor I had lying around. I'll probably pick up some Radeon's on e-bay in a week or so, and I might even *gasp*, order a couple of BFL Jalepenos just so I can piss money away. What the hell, it's only money. You can't take it with you.

Why do people still believe this? If something can be done on a general purpose chip, it can be done on a application specific chip.

I hate it when the sky falls.


Asics Arrive -> BTC Difficulty Increases -> Only mine with Asics now -> people built large Asic rooms to dominate bitcoins.
People with GPU no longer make a profit -> Sell GPU and call quits
                                                         -> Switch to Litecoins with can't have Asics


Asics Don't Arrive -> Avalons already arrived... but another company would just try to get an Asic
                        -> people start being interested in GPU rigs again, and build larger ones.

This isn't true.  GPUs and even multi-core CPUs parallelize Litecoin mining.

This isn't true either.  Scrypt ASIC and FPGA design is more complex and expensive than SHA-256 hardware design, and the memory requirements would increase costs, but dedicated hardware will always offer significant  efficiency advantages over general purpose hardware for embarrassingly parallelizable tasks.  People used to think that GPU mining Litecoin would not be viable.

This makes it a security hazard. The cryptographic strength has to lie with the key, not the algorithm. Anybody with a slight understanding of cryptology will confirm this.

Miners can just switch to Litecoin. It's more profitable than Bitcoin to mine anyway + it's hashing algorithm is Scrypt which has no currently known way to be parallel computed (ie any asics or fgpas that do eventually come out for it can only have a minimal advantage). Check out btc-e.com to see the exchange rate for Litecoin, or see the profitability on dustcoin.com

BFL has delayed but NOT DENIED....To  deliver a  perfect MINING ASIC SYSTEM is not a joke. ASIC  is not a Scam......it will BOOST BITCOIN....The strong system of CHEKS & BALANCES by increasing the difficulty rate can stabilise and overcome any GIGANTIC COMPUTATIONAL NODE

HAHAHAHAHAH! +1

IF BFL is a scam...which they are starting to look A LOT like... not only are quite a few of you OUT significant monies.... BUT bitcoin gets a major BLACK EYE. You will notice there is a little press around BTC... it is a novelty...a curiosity (as far as the mainstream press is concerned) not hugely newsworthy... UNTIL something goes wrong. And I'm not talking about technical bugs that are only understood by geeks, I mean human interest news stories like "Bitcoin Fraudsters bunk users of millions in Fake BTC mining scam" which grabs the interest of many many news readers. Not to mention the schadenfraud (sp?) or sadistic pleasure that non-investors get when they see us early adopters get stung.

If BFL is full of shit, it will hurt BTC's overall credibility and could prevent it from gaining widespread adoption. If they aren't its business as usual, but IF they are scamming... WE, the honest BTC community, should do something about it. Aren't most of you guys knowledgable about hacking? couldn't you "punish" josh and co.? if they prove to be bullshit?

just sayin....

Um, no?
Your examples seem to be arguing against something else other than what I have said.

What I disagree with is the idea that Bitcoin will be valued directly based on its security more because "the hashrate is higher". It has proven to be secure and continues to do so. If it was proven insecure before but then goes on to be proven secure for a year, that would be a different story. I am arguing against the idea that a massive increase in hashpower will directly increase the value of a Bitcoin.
Changing your public/ private keys on your bank's website from 2048 to 8192 is not going to get more customers.

Never, ever did I say if Bitcoin were to lose its prowess in security would it then continue to be successful.

If Bitcoin's security is proven ineffective --> price will drop significantly.
If Bitcoin suffers no security issues        --> price may go up due to other factors
If Bitcoin hashrate increases                 --> price will not go up because of this.

In the second underline, you are forgetting about supply and demand, which is a significant factor in Bitcoin specifically due to the few and growing users and the fixed supply. A simple news article can cause large changes in price that would not be true for USD.

I had a personal interest in BFL being the real deal, and personally went through the trouble of vetting them - including verifying arrival of shipments and the identity of lead individuals involved.

They seem to be legitimate.


Exhibit A.
https://i.imgur.com/hD8Ox36.jpg

But apparently there's already 20k preorders on Butterfly Labs, so even with a jalapeno I'm not entirely sure it would be worth it. The difficulty is going to increase so much if the ASIC's arrive, and I honestly believe a single Jalepeno will be enough. But oh well, I guess it's better than nothing

Yes the GPU days will be over, but it doesn't exclude the little guy.  In fact it's a lot easier to grab a $150 Jalapeno (assuming it comes to fruition) and just plug it into a USB port than it is to try to setup CGMiner with all the correct flags and worry about temps (I'm talking for a layman).  For those who have $ and are into running GPU farms there's always the possibility of custom modding he ASIC units in the future.

Don't tell me people are "mining" with their 5450 GPU which costs $50 and don't have $150 for a jalapeno (or whatever low end device any manufacturer may put out).

To be honest, I don't really want the ASIC's to arrive. When they do, gpu miners are gonna lose out big time. And people who can't afford an ASIC aren't gonna have enough hash rate to compete

So you disagree with this?:

Any E-Currency that is easy to crack is doomed to fail.

Mainstream joe public has little to do with anything. They are just consumers who will only shape the interface as producers try to please them.

Large growth will be garnered by large vendors getting on board, granted the CEOs of these companies may not be computer whizzes or know anything about cryptography but they have employees and freelance advisors who are cold and objective and VERY good at math like Spock.

BTC is a fungible asset based on proof of work, ecenomically it is identical to gold; Imagine if somebody worked out a way to quantumly lock onto gold atoms within 1000m and teleport them into the back of their van lab. Word spreads and gold funneling vans are zipping around everywhere. do you not think this softened security would undermine golds value as an asset? I think you'll find it would! Even if all the gold bugs knew nothing about the details of quantum teleportation.

The fundamental worth of any currency is ONLY related to its ease of use (liquidity) and its security.

Of course fiat currency, does not abide by these fair laws, it has its own set of laws that are enforced by its issuers and accepted by its users. So maybe you're still thinking with a fiat mindset? Fiat currency is only as secure as a few people choose it to be, with quantitive easing a handful of big-wigs can inflate the currency at the push of a button as and when they please, that's pretty dodgy when you think about it.

I disagree. The only reason this has been true in the past is because a relatively large portion of people involved with Bitcoin at the moment are involved in mining or investments in mining. The average user of the future wouldn't know anything about the security of the Bitcoin network. How many people who do online banking know what https or a public and private keypair are?
We are not talking about the worth of a storage facility when we are talking about Bitcoin as it becomes mainstream. We are talking about the worth of a currency.

Sure ASIC are possible for scrypt mining, but it does not have as big of an advantage, due to huge memory requirement, it'll mostly just be more power efficient, while costing roughly 1/3 or 1/4 of GPU per MHash. Those who mine with GPU on a free electricity basis will continue be able to profitably do so, with very reasonable ROI time frame.

I dont known i have the feeling they are using ASIC pre-orders to build up the things but them using them instead of deliver, if i make a ASIC today why should i sell it? today it makes its own cost in less than a week.

ASIC will make botnets less viable for example.

But I agree litecoin can keep GPUs in the game for alot longer and is suited to GPU architecture. I have a feeling that $LTC$/BTC value is going to accelerate from here on out. But GPU mining will still be profitable on LTC for some time to come.

From litecoin.org:


I would change that quote to this though:


Might happen sooner than you think?

hehe,  Mr. optimistic

much challenging how? surely the "large entity" can just order ASICs just the same as everyone else. In fact I think ASIC makes it easier (once they become readily available).

With GPU mining, if you wants to acquire a large amount of GPU in a short time, you have to compete with regular gamer demand, it's very difficult to do, as we have seen previously with all the top AMD GPUs sold out everywhere during the 2011 bubble.

With ASIC mining, the "large entity" only has to compete with other miners, or heck he could invest in building his own ASICs, it's very cheap to mass produce once the initial cost has been invested. If a 22 yr old Chinese guy from Brooklyn could do it in a few months, surely this "large entity" can build it too. Good luck with building your own GPU though.

This is why I think Litecoin's scrypt mining is superior, because ASIC for scrypt does not have as big an advantage over GPU due to large memory requirement, so GPU will remain viable to mine.

I think ASICs are the beginning of bitcoin being a serious system.

For a large entity with the agenda of overpowering the network, without ASIC the system is a cheap combination bike lock.

When all asics come on line the hashpower makes overpowering the chain much more challenging.

This will be reflected in bitcoins worth. what is worth more? a 4 barrel combination bike lock or a bank vault?

More hashpower means more security. worth of a storage facility is proportional to its security.

After the first genesis block was laid, when difficulty was 1, had you been privvy to the network you could have overpowered it with trivial computing power. Would you prefer it stay like that, just so you can mine easier?

Sorry but the needs of the network outweigh the needs of the nodes. There will come a point when mining is not profitable, but hashing transactions will be a steady earner.

Cars are coming, time to sell your horse.

I asked already a similar question, what could be an alternative? Or is their anything different, more powerful already in developement?

Everyone, please calm down.. and cash out: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitfunder-mining-difficulty-futures-now-available-coinbridiff-140608

I think you should stay off satoshidice for a while.

scammer tag?

Cough Cough.

bitecoin? one word... IDIOT!

Again, why will the value fall?

and if it does fall, it will be a buying op.

.... You do realise when there is a high demand for something and it becomes rare the price rises right? We've also got the ability to break up the Bitcoin too.

God this thread is more about his irrelevant typo of bitcoin. He raised a point but no it won't be the end of bitcoin although the value will fall.

Your statement is only right for pooled mining.
Didn't understand what 10 minutes means

You are forgetting about difficulty. If the hashrate doesn't increase, neither will the difficulty.


No new device,no innovation= no significant difficulty changes =GPU miners continuing to mine and FPGAs becoming the defacto efficiency option for those with the cash.

"bitcoin can survive only with enough miners"
No.

Fixed that for you.
10 minutes.

Fun provocation. I helped you by posting random stuff
I treat bitcoin as an investment. If people buy it or sell it or mine it, I'm sure a lot of people treat it the same way. It does have a long way to come before being treated by the majority of people using it as a currency.
Hopefully, that will happen over time and the investment will slowly pay off.

+1  I wouldn't touch it with a shitty stick.

Are you talking about US Dollars?  You call that stable and non volatile???  The US economy is on it's way to the same train wreck that Greece is in.  So USD is the last thing I would hold at the moment.

There are a lot of people who participate in bitcoin that are not interested in trading them for physical goods or services. Paying for goods/services or holding bitcoins - I'm not interested in that at all, like many others. I'd rather hold dollars. Holding unstable, volitile currencies is not for me. I'll trade a bitcoin for a dollar any day.

As for Mah87, I'm not sure what point you are actually trying to make. So, you can go suck a polar bear's dick unless you have something marginally interesting to say.

While I don't agree with the language, I agree with the argument. Value comes from what people are willing to trade for a real good. The reason why the exchanges exist at all is because people are willing to exchange real goods for bitcoins. They are also willing to exchange real goods for fiat. If at any time people no longer want to exchange goods for bitcoin or fiat, the exchange rate will skyrocket (or plummet). If no one wants to give you something for your bitcoins, they are worthless and the exchange rate will follow. [This excludes speculation, which can't be the basis for a stable economy]

That's Black market Reloaded you heretic.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1465887

Your English is terrible. "could be the dead of Silk Road". lol

"in the wiki". wow. good for you. I don't care.

The economy IS the exchanges. This is where the value is set. Who gives a shit if people use them for real world transactions. I'm not concerned with the economy past where I turn them into dollars.

Silk road and free market reloaded sell more than just drugs. You can buy guns, passports, poisions, and even have someone send a ricin bomb to a numpy like you.

If asics are a scam and will never arrive, how are asics responsible for the end of "bitecoin" (how your idiot mind spells it)? Are you implying that asics are the only thing that can ***cough*** save "bitecoin"?

Seriously, you (like most of the people that troll around here) need to get laid.

I clicked!

I've never heard of "bitecoin" so I'm not concerned about its future, lol.
For the record, I have stated many, many, many times that BFL was lying about their release date completely on purpose.  It was so they get like 90% of the pre-orders since everyone will believe they'll be first.  Then when they have the money in their pocket, what do they care about releasing it on time or not?  They already have a bad reputation for doing exactly that.

I am really starting to like this ignore button

They are so yummy.

Never heard of 'bitecoin'? Do you eat them?

+1

Fail
Less Hashrate = Less difficulty, which means more Bitcoins with easier work.

MINE ALL THE BITECOINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

eh... what?
if hash rate 'crashes' that would make mining more profitable...

Its still early days in the cryptocurrency sector and so naturally there is almost no 'real bitcoin economy'- just like in 1990 there was no 'real internet economy'.

This doesn't really have any significance as every project has to start somewhere.

See my tongue in cheek reply here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1293309

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1431982

  This reply you just gave me is substantially better than what you stated in the OP:

It could be referred to as a scam because of all the delays, but your absolute statement of "nothing will arrive and it will be the end of bitecoin" was what I was referring to.

Don't underestimate the power of self-delusion and denial. These people love ASICs and they will believe they are coming for months yet.
If they do arrive they will be an obsolete generation.

Where did you get the knowledge of this "truth" from?

troll harder

"Bitecoin", A Freudian slip?

Can't argue with that.

Also, the sky is falling.

How will it be the end of Bitcoin?  If ASICs never arrive, those who couldn't afford them will rejoice and keep mining with their existing hardware.

I'm saying the truth. Period.