Topic: ASICS - How high will the difficulty be on june 30, 2013 (Read 3213 times)

copy + paste = same amount of effort. I mean, you did copy and paste something anyway: the link

saves me re-writing the same thing twice
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1511329

Let's get a real discussion going. Let's start with picking apart my calculations based on incomplete information:

Avalon 1st shipment: 20TH/s finished during march
BFL first shipment: 55TH/s? finished during march? (rough guess of me assuming the total hashrate listed on the wait thread will be the same as the first shipment)
Asicminer, 1st setup: 12TH/s mining by late feb?

Avalon 2nd shipment: 40TH/s
BFL second shipment: ??-? (doesn't really matter since estimates of delivery of second shipment seem to be around late june)
Asicminer, 2nd setup: 72TH/s

Sooo.... let's assume 25TH/s+55TH/s+20TH/s+12TH/s = 112TH/s by the end of march

expecting to expand to at least 224TH/s by the end of June
224TH/s=31.29 million difficulty.

My personal guess is 35 million (aka ~250TH/s) for your poll, based on all this, since I expect to see shipping problems, resellers, people not mining 24-7, GPUs and FPGAs dropping out due to people with ASICs switching and some people without ASICs dropping out completely, etc. Plus, I don't expect everything that has been sold so far to be online or shipped by the end of June anyway.

250TH/s
= 34.92 million difficulty
= 0.86401318 expected BTC/day@60GH/s
= 69.44GH/s to solve 1 block per day

Interestingly, the SC mini single I have on order at 30GH/s should net me a bit more than amount per day that I got with my 800MH/s setup when I started mining seriously, once everything starts to level out. Of course, I expect the difficulty increase to incline at the same relative rate as it has over the past few months, once things level out.

I hope to have a unit that will break me even within 6 months and after that, I can keep hashing competitively enough to keep up the hobby.

These are my expectations. What does everyone else think?

edit: gorram smily on ? ? ?

Yup,wow doesn't wow me.

On ASICs,It seems all the 'companies' are being super secret and shifty concerning what they have to offer with nothing but promises and artificial dates.I also don't think pics are enough at this point until actual reports on the success of the product comes from at least 10 users. *Throws down gauntlet*

not everyone plays wow?

wtf is wrong with you people that you didn't get the "Over 9000" joke? 

On July 1st, 2013, Bitcoin mining difficulty will be higher than 20,000,000 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1021)
On March 1st 2013, bitcoin difficulty will be higher than 9,000,000 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=926)

9,000,000,000 = over 100,000,000.

He meant "Over 9000,000,000".

Since it's already 3,275,465 I don't see why

Where's the "Over 9000" option?

When ASICS start hitting the market, expected for this (or next) month, what will it do to difficulty.

I think, on june 30, the difficulty will be close to 50,000,000.
That would mean the Bitcoin network power went up from 25Th/s to 400Th/s!

Why? I think 5000 - 6000 units at 60Gh/s will be added to the network on june 30, 2012 (BFL Bitforce 'SC' single and Avalons) and some 1,5Th BFL mini RIG's.

At that difficulty rate, a 60Gh/s ASIC will only mine 0,55 BTC in 24 hours 

What do you think that happens to difficulty?