Topic: At what price will you bitcoin holders sell if we have a major price spike? (Read 692 times)

You can't say never, buddy. Or it seems you are keeping your bitcoin holdings for your heirs. If you are not selling now, one day it may not be you who sells it off; it may be your heir who will take after your holdings. I know you have taught them about bitcoin and preached the good tidings to them, making them believers. There is just no way you won't sell your bitcoin. So I'd prefer if you say SOMEDAY. No one knows how long but someday you will sell and take that massive profit. 

Actually as an investor, you need to have an investment goal, like how much you are expecting from this or that investment, how much loss you are will to take, because being a Bitcoin investor, precisely in the crypto space, the level of greed can be very destructive to our portfolio, because you might say from the beginning that, you will sell and take profit when the price reach 100k, but when the price got closer and closer, you will feels like it is too small that you want more, and you will fail to seize the opportunity then, and most times the the price will not got to your second price target, and it will reverse to a lower price, which you will be now forced to sell to a much more lower price because the price is declining very fast at that stage.
So I would suggest, it's best you sell and take profit when the price reach your first target, instead of allowing greed to make you wait further.

This kinds of dream I cherish though it could be personal but I like join in this dream, may this kind grace to hold and be patient enough engolf me, this dream will come through at most in the next two years.

2026 is the actualizing of this dream my faith is there who want to join should.

Well I think you are right about the number 100k. That number is such a high number and I think people will start to sell and take profits when it does go that high.  And now I do think it there is a good chance it does see that price this year.

you have personal opinions?? since when..?

seems you just take other people opinion.. im still waiting for you to for once have a personal opinion of your own you didnt take from someone else

an opinion you stole from somewhere days ago was that gold was king due to YOUR ill informed thoughts that china was buying gold exponentially


funny how you listened to my points and are now saying gold has reached its day and bitcoin is king as the upward trajectory for 2025

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based on the cost of mining when looking at the highest electrical prices of the planet as a ceiling of where traders come to the belief that once hitting the ceiling on the market, its cheaper for all countries to mine coin to then sell vs market buy to hoard..
shows that $140k is a rational number.. for todays numbers projected forward by a year

however ETF are pushing bitcoin markets outside of normal economics.. (outside the fundamentals of underlying value-premium window which is based on mining costs of the planet)

we have seen that although ethereum changed from PoW to PoS meaning it lost its fundamentals of underlying value which should have taken ETH down in price by 20x, it however didnt drop due to its fundamentals and instead rose higher due to its shadow puppet trading against bitcoin rises..

with bitcoin ETF's we could see bitcoin surge above $140k if the persistence of bitcoin ETF keep pushing demand on the bitcoin spot in 2025, or if the mining costs of 2025 surge once again..
but for now a $140k is a reasonable rationale target for todays numbers projected onto 2025

I believe those are very conservative ATH projections.

Because of the ETF, Bitcoin's potential ATH value has probably increased ten-fold. Asset managers around the world that wanted some exposure in Bitcoin can currently access it through the ETF. Plus if you're an asset manager with billions under management, would you continue holding a less profitable Gold ETF? Or will you sell some of that to purchase a more profitable investment?

In my personal opinion 2025 will see the market value/volume for Gold ETFs go down, and Bitcoin ETFs to surge.


Plus China is in Quantitative Easing/has their money printer on.


Russia?


👍

All I see is FOMO, you would see so many persons acting as tho they can really hold and now after making profits they want to sell, just to start the process of buying again.


I don't even advice selling at all, bitcoin is an asset and not just some profit maker and right now you can see the pace the big companies are using to buy bitcoin and you well know they are for the hold and also would live to influence price, we retail investors should stop out selling g habits now more than ever, and no one knows If this cycle would happen like the rest, the way I see it we might well start having bull and bear occasional and the days of long bear or very long bull would soon be over, I think it would be more like a consolidation movement where price would drop like 30% and Jack back again, but who knows I might also be wrong.

Well if you want some kind of "rational" response we could build a theory for the next price peak, based on the following statement:

Volatility is declining, but the ups and downs follow a roughly similar pattern than in the previous cycles.

We would then have to find a formula to describe the volatility decline. One very simple measure is to base the decline comparing the difference between 4-year all time highs, in comparison to the previous one. As we had only a few 4-year highs I'll include the 2011 high of 32$.

Then we'd have:

- 2011 -> 2013: 32 to 1200 => ~3650% in 2 years => 510% per year
- 2013 -> 2017: 1200 to 20000 => ~1550% in 4 years => 101% per year
- 2017 -> 2021: 20000 to 70000 => ~250% in 4 years => 36% per year

This already shows us that while volatility is definitely declining, if there is a pattern, it is quite wonky.

One idea is to try to find a trend for the decline of the average yearly growth rates between ATHs. We see that the decline between the 2011-13 growth rate of 510% and the 2013-17 rate of 101% is approximately minus 80%, but between 2013-17 and 2017-21 the decline is is only minus 64%. So we could continue this series and now assume a decline of 48% (80 - 64 = 16, 64 - 16 = 48) between the 2017-21 and the 2021-25 growth rate.

This could give us a growth rate for the "potential peak ATH" this cycle of 19% per year approximately.

As we don't know when the peak will occur, we can simply define some simple points each year based on the 2021 high and apply the +19% formula:

- November 2021: 70000
- November 2022: 83300 (70000 + 19%)
- November 2023: 99127 (83300 + 19%)
- November 2024: 117961 (99127 + 19%)
- November 2025: 140373 (117961 + 19%)

My impression is that the peak will occur some time before November 2025. Perhaps due to expectations based on previous cycles, we are already in a more advanced stage of the bull market in early-to-mid 2024, so I personally expect the peak in the first half of 2025. This would roughly mean that if we go for the formula, the peak could be between 125000 and 135000 USD.

That's approximately the price range where I would be comfortable selling in this cycle. There are however some indications that it could be higher, because 2020/21 was a particularly bad year for the world's economy due to Covid. If the recovery continues and interest rates continue to go down, then I expect more than 135000.

Potential other positive "black swans" could rise the peak even higher:

- China allows crypto again
- The BTC vs gold debate becomes more favourable for BTC and BTC is seen as a real competitor, e.g. first central banks buying BTC

I'm not really expecting these two events soon, so these would count as black swans for me if they occur before mid-2025. But I'm expecting them for the next 2 cycles.

Selling half of it is not a bad idea, we just consider this securing our profit. If it fall, we never regret from missing the opportunity.
Unrealistic...Bitcoin will never go that fast and reach that high instantly. I can't imagine it will happen in two weeks, not even a year. Maybe, it happens in the future but not this coming ATH. Stop believing rumors, $200k is too high.
Just think about this - hold as long as you can but don't bother to decide to sell if you already make a profit. If the purpose of buying Bitcoin is to just hold, then hold. But if our goal is to make money, then why not sell them? 

Don't sell them all instead 50% to be selling and the other 50% will remain holding unless the price reached 100k ten consider releasing them all.

Like my plan to sell half of my holding if we will reach 80k before halving and wil try looking for a chance to buy again once the bear followed , but if not and the price will continue increasing then at least I have my holding.

Yeah, I totally understand it too. I can say now my target is #300k because that is my price now and I would not hesitate to sell everything and semi-retire (I can't afford to retire but this would pay all my debts to zero and get rid of need to pay rent).

But once price reaches $300k for real, I don't know if I can get greedy. Depends when I guess. If it's next year, I might get tempted to wait one more cycle

To purchase shares of the Sacramento Kings, it's probably better to wait for $2,000,000 no? Which Bitcoin surging to $200,000 during a cycle, could add to the probability that Bitcoin could surge to seven digits?

Am I merely being a Moon Boy? I believe not ser. After BlackRock entered Bitcoin Land, followed by the Cabal of some of the largest asset managers around the globe, the kind of investors that will buy those Bitcoin ETFs might not care if the price of Bitcoin is $70,000, $200,000, or $1,000,000. They will buy those Bitcoin ETFs because they need it for their portfolios.

HODL on longer.

probably when $100k hits im readying my bags to dump after all a man needs to eventually dump their investment and I personally sees that already sufficient enough in my opinion.
but it depends though my target is flexible if i see that the price climbing up higher and earlier than we expected I will probably holding off from selling any of my bags because i can probably see another higher heights up there and I will set my next target at around $200k.
the thing is that we probably won't be seeing any bottom below $50k again, people have learnt that when the price of bitcoin is dipping it just means a chance for them to invest, the recent sudden price dumps shown me enough that people are eager to make money from the price dipping I mean thing can suddenly turns worse when something as massive as the case of previous bearish happening again.
but i'm sure of it that since i made my investment at the bearish im sure that my capital will never fall short because of slight dump, i know bitcoin will never dumps as low as the price when im entrying.

We all turn into greedy when we are already seeing some price spike happening in the market. That’s why first and foremost, it’s still best to set your target selling price first where you are comfortable of selling and stick to it no matter what will happen to bitcoin. Otherwise, you’ll end up being confused when to sell most especially when the market is highly optimistic until you realize you have done nothing but keep on waiting for another price rise, until you realize you have missed an opportunity to sell at a profitable price due to greed.

hmm, good question. A price of 100k is quite possible and even more, but the scenario may be completely unpredictable. There is another option to take back the funds that you initially invested, and wait for the maximum profit from the difference. This option will save your initial investment and return the starting capital , but you can go all-in and wait for the price you have in mind.

I believe one shouldn't be asking others when it comes to such matters because everyone has their personal financial goals and targets and they can't be the same for all. I might have a different target in mind based on my personal goals and if I tell you that and make up your mind accordingly, you might miss your actual target, so I don't recommend such things because this should be your decision to make, see suggestions, but make sure you are not influenced by them and the final decision is yours.
There is only one thing I would say, don't keep waiting for too long and when there is a correction after the halving event and when you see it's going too deep, try to take profit because you never know, that might be the beginning of the bear run of the new season.

I’ve been saying for about 6 years now that $200K is my price. If we hit that level it will be difficult for me to continue being a holder because I will be able to do pretty much everything I’ve ever dreamed of, with the exception of owning the Sacramento Kings, but that pipe dream may be forever out of reach.

I would sell
0.1 today at 70k+

I would ladder list

0.1 at 79876
0.1 at 84321
0.1 at 94321
0.1 at 111111

And I would on to the rest for dear life.

I think by no people have realise that they should not be selling entire Bitcoin rather the should only sol when they are in immediate need of fund because we have already witnessed how profitable Bitcoin would be hence I would be selling it only it's that's the last resort and since it has already reached $73k I would be selling it for atleast $100k if I had to do.

Everyone have its perfect to to sell its bitcoin or any coin depending on the coins you are holding, like me I have target of when I will sell my bitcoin and if the value of bitcoin have not reach to this particular time, I believe that everyone have it values point when they like to sell their bitcoin, I'm holding my bitcoin base on future, because those people is a billionaire today invested or hold bitcoin when the value was nothing and today they all a billionaire....so everyone have in mind what values they would like bitcoin to reach before sell.

From your perspective its good to achieve your goal but we should know that is not good to have greediness to take over our
goals,so in investment you have to be extremely careful and observe well before you venture into the investment.

I think considering the situation we are in right now, it doesn't really feel like such a big jump to consider people could sell at 70k+ right now. However, that doesn't mean that we are going to have something major, it is going to probably be fine, it is not going to really change all that much.

I hope that people could see some changes here and there, because we look like we might have some troubles if we sell too, since it may keep going higher. A lot of people are seeing the situation like a big deal, but the reality is that we are not going to really see it change all that much if we are not careful. All in all, I think we should just let it be, do not sell, if you do not want to buy that is fine too, but do not sell.

Since you bought Bitcoin in 2022 and held it for a long period of time, you can now make multiple gains on your Bitcoin purchases. Currently the price of Bitcoin is 72000$ which you can earn several times more profit than your purchased Bitcoin at that time. However, since the halving is still a few days away and Bitcoin is at the ATH level, it is more likely that the price of Bitcoin is going to rise in a bull market. As a result, you can still hold on to your bitcoins if you want, so that you can earn more profit. I think Bitcoin will cross $1000 in a few days. Then through this you can achieve more profit And if you want, you can keep some of the profit or the amount of money you used to buy Bitcoin for yourself. As a result, the amount of money you have gained will continue to increase.

It doesn't matter what price you're thinking of, just set the price. And if it doesn't hit, then wait for the next bull run.

I know it sounds so simple, but that's literally what I do.

It kinda means I'm not selling this cycle almost for sure, because my target is $300,000. You're very lucky you have 2 Bitcoins... I'm settling for a total value of around 150k dollars, as it's comfortable for me in my local area to buy a house and the land, very very small, but mine to own.

Don't be quite confident ser, it will not be everyone. I was one of those people who had a "take profit" target of $100k when I started to purchase the DIPs during 2019. But as the six digit price valuation target started to become more and more possible, my take profit target became higher and higher. Then I said to myself my new "take profit target" will be $500,000, then probably to seven digits, then after BlackRock = Never. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

With the current positivity in the market, I think that it's quite ambitious of me to say that my goal would be around 170k USD, I know it's a weird amount for some but that way, I'm not going to easily waiver when the market shows that it's probably the peak, prepared myself too in the case that my selling price isn't met, if that's the case then I'll just continue hodling again and then just wait more for even more profit. What I'm not prepared for though is when I reach that goal but there's no sign that's the peak, I do have a plan where I sell half and then if it increases even more by about 10% I'd sell half again, but I don't think it's effective, there's probably better strategy out there when it comes to selling, hope that someone can give me some pointers.

If you are trying to predict what the next bubble peak is going to be where people sell so much that it stops rising, I have to tell you that it is impossible to know or predict. Look at any of the other cycles and the bubble peaks. Nobody could tell at those times. For example when price reached $1200-ish back in 2017 (which was the previous ATH set in 2013) nobody could even dream of price reaching $20000 in less than a year as the ATH.

It's the same today. Now that we've just broken the previous ATH at $70k, we can not tell if we are going to reach $200k or $1.1 milllion (same rise as 2017 percentagewise).

I am pretty sure almost everyone that entered this cycle will sell at least some at $100K. This is where we might have that issue like we did with the 2017 top. Where we reached $19500 but never touched $20000 since many had their sell orders there. So keep in mind if this happens then there is a good chance we might not reach $100K but might touch $99K and head back down.

However I predicted this back at $10K in 2017 and $50K back in 2021 and I was dead wrong and sold way too early. So take my analysis with a grain of salt. Either way, somebody has an exit price, even Saylor. If we reach $250K, even he might start taking some partial profits at least.

You have enough questions here and I can't blame you, it's a general panic when it comes to the liquidation of an asset at a very good price that will not cause regrets on whether you liquidated it at a price that would make you miss more money or blaming yourself for not liquidating it soon enough.

Well, first, I would like you to note that there is no perfect trader/investor just as there is no perfect speculation of the market, so there can't be perfect liquidation of positions as well. You should know that liquidation could come with luck as well, this is where luck and expertise are working together due to people's approach because some people would just liquidate at a particular time that the market would start selling without any prior analysis, they will just use their instinct and it will be a near perfect decision. But this is still a style that is random, it is never professional. If You would like to liquidate your asset professionally, I bet you use your chart guidance.

I knew it when the long-term bullish trend of Bitcoin started in 2023 through chart readings, so good chart readers would also know when the long-term bearish trend of the coin starts. This is the best time you liquidate to avoid mistakes. You can use the weekly and monthly charts together for proper analysis to achieve the purpose, and you will never regret it.

Personally, I believe Bitcoin would hit $100,000 in this bullish season and might still hit above $120,000 as well. The comeback level should be between $100,000 and $150,000 as well. If such an assumption is what you want to use, fine, but note that it is just a random pick for the liquidation. What if the asset moves far above the level? This is why you need your analysis.

For me, if I am currently considering selling, maybe if I speculate it is too early to bet, the reasons are:
Bitcoin's countdown to the halving phenomenon is speculated & predicted to occur in time: 39 days 23 hours 12 minutes 28 seconds to go, I'm sure it's not the right time for me to do it, even though $70k has actually happened.

My speculation.

With what I said above, I think you will know when to sell and other things for Bitcoin, good luck to everyone here.

Absolutely. If you believe that bitcoin has huge potentials to reach even a million, then don’t force yourself to sell early but hold continuously until it satisfies your greed. However, if you want to enjoy also the fruit of your sacrifice, then selling a portion of your bitcoin is not bad at all, like selling when $100k is achieved. Don’t worry if you can’t maximize your profits, having the thought that you still have future profits ahead waiting for you is already fulfilling enough.

For now, continue to observe the market and if possible, continue doing DCA. After all, even if price correction happens, once you continue to hold, you won’t still lose your bitcoin.

lol anyone telling you it could spike to 200k quickly is straight up lying to you. Please if you are participating in the market you should have at least a basic sense of the amount of money this all involves and be able to easily realize such a statement is pure nonsense. $200k maaaaaaaybe could happen this bull market, though I think it is unlikely, so most likely scenario is bitcoin hits $200k in about 4 years, not in a few weeks lol.


Personally I expect the peak of this cycle to be around $150k, and I do plan on selling some of my bitcoin as it rises towards that (some of that money will be bought back in on the crash). I plan to start selling a very tiny amount around $110k-$120k, and then most of my planned selling from $130k-$150k, so I'm hoping it hits $150k as that is my highest planned sell.

But I've been holding my bitcoin a lot longer than you and I'm only selling some of my bitcoin in order to set me up to never worry about money again (being a bitcoin millionaire but only having like $5k in the bank is kinda a silly thing for me to continue doing haha). So selling a bit this cycle is part of my life long financial plan and this money will go toward not only giving me plenty of cash so I don't ever have to worry about being short on cash again, but also other things that will increase my income, and the excess will be poured back into Bitcoin on the next bear market.

My point is, you don't NEED to sell during the bull market. Why are you selling? Just because price went up a bunch? Cuz price is going to go many times higher in the future. So if this is meant to be your long term savings, and unless you need the money for some purpose, I would recommend you to just hold through the market cycle. Hold long term. That way you aren't trying to guess when to sell in the next 12 months or whatever, and instead you just let that money keep growing over many years. If you need money for a specific purpose, unless you are like buying a house, you probably only need to sell a little bit of your 2 bitcoins, and should hold the rest long term so you can be spending it when price is $500k, $700k, $1 million, etc, instead of just selling it in the first bull market you've seen.

If there is no real purpose to sell, then no need to sell.

I don't agree completely, It is also smart to use the profit from investing in bitcoins to invest in other things that will be profitable like real estate etc. If you still keep all your profits and hold only bitcoin as investment, that is complying with keeping all your eggs in one basket, which is not good.

OP, study Bitcoin Bull-Bear cycles and its relationship with the increase/decrease of the total M2 global money supply. Every time M2 global money supply increases, Bitcoin price surges. But if it decreases, Bitcoin's price crashes, BUT it never goes down under its previous ATH by multiples. Plus the last bear cycle was the first time it went under its ATH which may not happen again.


The answer is obvious. It's NEVER?

It's always a gamble.

My advice, don't think about when to sell your holdings, even if you have made a sizable profit. You have 2 BTC since 2022 and if you buy it in the middle of 2022, the highest price of Bitcoin will be around $30,000+, and I don't think you made a big profit and only double compared to the current price of Bitcoin which is $71,500+. Because I don't know what the price of Bitcoin will be when I buy it in 2022, when the price is highest or when the price of Bitcoin falls because you didn't mention it.
And whatever the reason, I advise you to continue holding your Bitcoins or take advantage of this moment to accumulate more Bitcoins periodically, before the Bitcoin price rises further. And I think if Bitcoin hits $100,000-$150,000, it seems like there's a chance of that happening. And you have to continue to hold it and be patient to reach the price you mentioned in order to get a satisfactory profit, at least 3x or 4x the previous price.

I'd sell some at $150k-$200k but I'll never sell everything. Just like taking a few sweet profits by that time so that I can taste the flavor of being patient.

But if it won't be reached this bull run, I'm still fine. I'd keep my Bitcoins until I can as long as I don't have to sell, then I won't do it. I've got some prepared to be sold and a portion that will likely be kept forever.

It's still going to be a long time for this bull run, it won't be a gamble if it's with BTC but if it's with some memecoins, sure it is a gamble.

I'm quite greedy and my sell target is only when bitcoin is above $200k. This is the goal I set from 2023, not because I see the current situation that I change the goal . Because I believe this bull season will be a super cycle and bitcoin will be worth over $200k or more and the $100k target for me is quite modest .

Everyone has different visions and goals, so I can't give you advice . But I just want to tell you, in the long run bitcoin can even reach $500k or $1 million, so why should we be afraid and sell at too low a price to others?

When Bitcoin was hovering around $30k the $100k target looked like it was a going
to be a big effort to get there so a lot of people had that price as their sell point.

For me $100k is way too soon. Now that >$60k is kind of the norm now and the ATH
broken $100k is reachable before the halving so I would like to see the Bitcoin market
pass $150k then I'll start considering selling some.


Personally I have never sold to take profits, only out of necessity. This time around
it will be a bit of both.

There are those who have in the past sold close to the ATH to buy back when the markets
fell and increased their HODL'ings - could be a bit of a gamble this time around?

Why sell at all?

It's smarter to keep your profits in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin may get to $100000 in this year. I think selling at $80000 will only be selling too early. Although people will have different opinions on this. Anyone that wants to sell should sell around $100000. Bitcoin is going above $100000.

Some people will see it as a correction but before they will know after they want the market to dip further, they will see the price higher than the price that they sold it. That is one thing about trading.

$100k is the target and right now we are trading with the new ATH and the hype continues.

I can still hold up to this level and will assess the market trend if the corrections is about to happen.

BTC bull trend seems unstoppable right now, this is a good sign to hold stronger and of course stay focus with your goal.

Always have your target profit, once you are happy with it make sure to commit with it so you wont regret things.

After seeing the current rally I would never sell Bitcoin below $80k but I will check the market fully before even selling at $80k because if the market become overly bullish during $80k price then I will wait for the pump to reach its intensity before selling some of my holdings.

I would most probably sell it for the purpose of trading not for permanent selling at that price. I'll accumulate more Bitcoin with the money when it sees a correction, that's how I'm planning to sell Bitcoin. I guess if you really wanted to earn some good profits then don't sell but hold your Bitcoin, however if you're good at trading then you can sell and rebuy in order to accumulate more of it.

I have been thinking about when to start selling my 2 bitcoins I purchased for $21,000 each average price during 2022 lows.

I keep hearing things like we could spike to 200K really quickly and stuff like that, maybe in just weeks.

My question is when will you guys start to sell if we have a major spike?

I used to think I wanted to sell at 100K, but this is rising so fast I have been thinking more like 150K to start selling.

How will you sell, slowly into a spike or wait for a set price and just dump.