Topic: Avalon going to cut into BFL customers pocket books? (Read 4928 times)

Orly?

Ouch!

Only if Avalon sells more than 300 > 600 at a time... as there seems to be a large market for ASIC given the fact they "PRESELL" like hotcakes. Wonder what the total market would be?

You know what I call a promotional joke. When BFL is willing to have their customers wait to see what the competition will come up with.

but hey! you seem to be ok to bash a competitor that at-least tried to put their customers first. So sad we obtain that level of customer service from a communist company.

Like I have said before I appreciate the service Avalon has done for the community to actually put the fire under BFL's ass.

2 units in the wild, I just can not describe as shipped!
This I call as promotion joke!

I don't think you quite understand what is going on.  First, pulling from history we need to remember that BFL dropped the "bombshell" about ASIC in early autumn 2012.  The fact that there is any competition is amazing.  It was announced so early, it if like they were trying to scare away competition.

I saw this, because how Bitcoin works and what ASIC represents.  We are now in a cold war in regards to increasing hashing power and diminishing rewards.  If you are doing any ASIC, you are locked in or you will get out period...  The fact the Avalon has shipped (I believe this week we will see many units coming online), is very significant and you can't not dismiss the impact.   If they can ramp up their (Avalon) production and get GEN 2 ready by later summer, they may be able to continue to increase the hashing power and difficulty to a point where further ASIC development is just plain, unprofitable. 

I made a chart with all the shipping dates announced and estimated total network hashing with estimated difficulty, there are two contrasting scenarios, one where BFL comes ahead and one where they don't and it is all tied into a few keys dates and how much hashing they actually sold and ship.   The next 3 months will be defining.   

You are right if you're telling about this very moment. So, PuertoLibre has got 0 GH/s yet, so it's a draw.

12*0=0, not 720

If BFL ships... It will be WAR.
<65nm chips in 3 months.

BFL, please, ship!

blahblahblah .... all piss and vinegar...

No one is listening to the rubbish that spews forth from the opening at the top of your body....

DELIVER ON YOUR COMMITEMENTS

They were originally intending to charge $1999 for Batch 2.

Looks like it's $500. So $2000 for 90GH/s. Same cost and H/s as a BFL single + little single + raspberry pi to run them, and BFL's two units still take up less space and use less power than the non-upgraded Avalon.

If BFL ships, Avalon will be just barely keeping up with BFL in H/$ and still way behind in H/J.


Yes, I'm still thinking along the same lines. (If it wasn't obvious, I meant "increase mining without making the power usage even worse".) They've effectively allowed you to buy 1/3 of a second unit. This is useful for people who have $2000 but not $3000, space for 4U but not 8U, and free power. "Serious" miners will be getting multiple units anyway (and 4 normal units is as good as 3 upgraded units).

The only undeniable advantage is that Avalon has shipped and BFL has not (and that's a pretty fucking big one), but this has nothing to do with the magic feature.

Ha, you could fit, what, 6-9 Single boards in Avalon's case? And it has built in fans, so that's convenient

You missed out a few steps: get into a time/alternate reality travel machine, go to whatever dimension you can obtain 12 working BFL SC Singles, procure, return to genuine reality, realise they were all a figment of your imagination.

You could even re-use the power supply and the control board!

Puerto, you're right. I was wrong. The Avalon is modular enough that you can throw out or sell those Avalon chips and put BFL cards in them! That is a killer feature.

+1 I love this place.

lol I love this forum.. always keeps me entertained. 

Josh, awww the baby wanna cry because you weren't the first to ship?

Well hopefully this time you guys can stick to your damn timeline and stop making kindergarten type excuses.

Most people would rather have a working ASIC in their hands than nothing at all but excuses from you.

Mark my words: You delay one more time and your preorder customers will request refunds in a wave the size of a tsunami that will make you want to pee pee your pants as I doubt your precious BFL business can handle refunding ALL customer preorders at once.

Your Best Friend,

Smoothie 

Actually you didn't ship on time either, not even close. Power estimates wrong, shipping estimates wrong. Stick to your pie in the sky estimates bud and don't try to stand on your record...it sucks.

One out of two is a pretty mediocre average to be touting the way you are.

It Lives! 

Hey... you can get an Avalon unit to do 720 GH/s.  It's totally easy.  Just put 12 BFL singles in the case.  Just a bit more wattage than a 4 card Avalon and you'll have room to spare AND you'll get almost 3/4 of a TH out of an Avalon.

BTW, for creativeIdiot who keeps bitching about BFLs power estimates, I would like to point out that power estimates exceeded expectations for the Minirig.  So if you want to talk track record, it's a wash.  So stop with your lies about how we've never estimated power properly.  We made ONE (count it), ONE mistake and you've been banking on it forever.  Of course, you just can't be bothered to mention that the minirig power estimates came in under spec, for which we over delivered on promises.  God forbid you tell the truth in all your bullshit.

Uh, I think you came out a bit fool-ish in that comparison.

You compared a 30k modular design with a 1.3 to 1.5k modular design.

Are you being serious??

----------------

Beyond that, Revision 2 Avalon units will have up to 6 modules for upgrades (up to 132Gh/s). So the box will likely be a bit bigger but more expandable. Hence the price hike I'd bet.

lol BFL is in a position where the lies and extensions are no longer going to work.

The longer they wait the more anyone is not going to care about wattage and size.

You can speculate all you want guys. Who cares how big and ugly it is. It's gonna crank 250 bucks a day until the next difficulty adjustment.

Guess who's ass that 250 bucks a day is coming from?

Thats right BFL's customers that are swallowing the bullshit that Josh spewing.

TIME=MONEY=BITCOIN

I know it difficult to talk badly about the horse you bet on. Hey don't worry.

I'm sure BFL is working real hard now installing those tables they just ordered when they were gonna ship in OCT.

Remember?

Microsoft Proved a better design/product does not win the race..........  

Power will only come into play once we have ~300THash online  how long until then....long enough for Avalon to have a 2nd or 3rd Gen product out there....?

I would like to say at this point "Welcome to our new Chinese Overlords" ...

BFL better

1)Have VC funding
2) Have not spent it all
3) Miss the march deadline by 1 day as the refunds will be 90% of orders

Thank god for competition in this space...

Day 2 Of the arms race  

Agreed, but it was just too tempting to turn Puerto's statement around.

It depends on how Avalon's batch 2 goes, how BFL goes and how ASICMINER goes. I'd rather not.


Of course they can do that, if they've paid off their initial NRE and have $500k? to spare for moving to a smaller process. The result will be a product similar in efficiency to BFL products, but most likely months after BFL has already met most of the demand.

Or they both consider it logical to make a customisable/upgradeable product and it's a commonsense choice rather than anyone "copying" someone else.

I honestly wonder if the level of fanboi-ism would be so great had the products been delivered last year.  It seems to me like people have become irrationally emotionally attached to ASIC products and I wonder if there's going to be a lot of disappointment in them once Avalon, BFL, ASICMiner and Goliath have all thrown significant new hashing power at the network.


I suspect that any ASIC vendor who isn't already thinking about the design of their next generation products is going to be left behind.  We're going to hit the situation where it's not profitable to buy single units very quickly and the number of people who can just keep buying more units to maintain a constant proportion of total hashing power will be limited.  For everyone else, the level of diminishing returns is going to happen sooner rather than later.

Care to wager when this phase sets in? April? May? June?

Why would Avalon not be able to upgrade to a better design after a few batch iterations? June is 4 months away, it only took them that much time to bootstrap their project from scratch, why could they not leverage their knowledge and do it again with a different 65mn design? Or better. Their design seems to modular and ready for upgrades.

It's not like NGzhang is assembling the units himself by hand, he can sit back and start all over again.

I thought the mini rig was already customisable/upgradeable, meaning that Avalon copied BFL.

Um, did I say they were in a good position for the race if they're losing the race? That would be stupid.

Edit: I should clarify. The race is obviously over (Avalon won), which means ASICs are now in the ramp-up phase of the curve (like GPUs right after the first OpenCL miner), but when the curve flattens off and 60GH/s units are normal, it will no longer make sense to use units that are not power efficient. BFL has obviously been targeting the flat-curve phase since they went with 65nm. Avalons will not sell well in that phase.

Lets see. Part of this observation is going to be long term as people get their rigs and figure out what upgrade path they will put into practice.

Don't be surprised if BFL tries to copy Avalon in the premise.

Stated otherwise...if BFL is again as lousy at guesstimating their power consumption as they are at guesstimating their shipping dates then they're hosed. You have to have a large vat of kool-aid to think BFL is in a good position when they're set to come in third in a three man race.

I think they put them in exactly the spot where they expected to be - a pretty good one if their power usage will be as low as expected.


Agreed.

I had a feeling that you would defend whatever the magic feature was when released, then fabricate some numbers to make it sound amazing. Adding extra modules to bring an Avalon to 90GH/s is roughly the same as buying a little single to add to your 60GH/s single to get to 90GH/s...Except that the Avalon will cost $1500 to start with, we don't know what the add on modules will cost, it still takes up more space, and the power usage is STILL going to be much higher.

I predicted before that the feature would not be enough to overcome the difference in power usage or make people suddenly cancel their BFL orders. Was I wrong?

Yeah I'm not terribly worried.  Even if Avalon got all 300 units out to customers by the first of March and hashing away, that's just about another 20TH on the network.  Now compared to the quantities that BFL is going to be shipping in or so is said, I'd imagine their first pre-orders would be significantly larger than Avalon by several times, let alone once the rest of their chips go out.

In short, yeah sure any of BFL's customers will certainly be earning a little less at this point if 30 or 50 or even 100 Avalon customers receive their orders first.  But I think it's not such a drastic climb that it's the end of the world.  I mean, if you're purely profit and time driven, yeah it does suck but anyone who's purchased at this point is committed so can't really change that.  I can only say be fortunate (and not without trying to be disrespectful) that you ordered with one or two companies who have come through in the end.  It'd be unfortunate if someone tied up their money elsewhere to a company that's had to issue refunds or cancel production.

Either way, congrats to Avalon and I do hope that with these good schedules and bullet-points that Josh and crew is able to proceed smoothly to final production and get the units out.

Avalon has previously stated that they wouldn't be shipping during CNY so unless something has changed, not everyone from Batch 1 will receive their units in February.  It's just not possible to guess how much Avalon power will hit the network before BFL delivers their first units.  Avalon has now delayed Batch 2 orders - which were due for delivery in early March - so it's quite possible that BFL will deliver a significant amount of units before Avalon delivers batch 2 - although less BFL units are going to be delivered in their first batch than originally expected.

The number of Avalons in the wild before BFL delivers their first units will have some impact on profitability for all miners, but so will BFL's first batch of deliveries.  BFL's first round of deliveries may well have a greater impact on the profitability for all later customers than Avalon's will.  Let's face it - every delivered ASIC essentially increases the ROI period for all ASICs which are subsequently delivered.  High Bitcoin prices or reduced hardware prices may be able to mitigate that somewhat and keep the ROI period at an acceptable period.

A number of fair points made. I think we're roughly on the same page, though you seem to be able to put "thoughts on paper" a bit more efficiently than I do. 

In any case, the next few weeks will either make or break BFL.

Several reasons, some of which you just alluded to. Avalon is now in another league IMO as they're now an ASIC vendor and not a vaporware vendor that used to sell FPGAs. They've now definitively proven themselves to not be a scam. They've also proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they're capable of delivering what they said they could and on the schedule they said they would. BFL has failed to meet any of these criteria. I believe BFL is in trouble now, not just if/when they announce another delay. Meanwhile BTC continues to march north in price vs fiat and opportunity costs for those that sold BTC to pay for ASICs or paid directly for ASICs continue to climb.

How so? [serious question]

It's sort of a "proof of concept" having Avalon deploy one working unit so far, which is why I'm largely holding judgement on this issue until more units are in the hands of customers. But I don't think BFL has much to worry about until Avalon takes the lead with orders. Avalon just showed that they have a working product..so if BFL doesn't kick into gear and get units out the door soon, they're going to be in trouble.

There are MiniRig customers already asking big questions about the power outlet and overclocking issue. The PSU is only half the problem.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/875-1-2w-per-gh-not-good-mini-rigs-2.html#post12370

BitCoin Magazine article on the FIRST ASIC hashing device. (by Avalon)

http://bitcoinmagazine.com/working-avalon-asic-confirmed/


https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/837-sunday-27-jan-2013-asic-update-discussion-thread-9.html

I think you're kidding yourself. That single ASIC hashing on slush is a huge blow to BFL and their customers investors.

Seems about right. Avalon may have shipped one unit so far, but it won't start to actually matter until they start getting pallets out the door at a time. Nevertheless, BFL can't risk falling behind again.


My goodness that was a good laugh...disturbing..but good.

As low as they go.  No, no movie quote. Just me being a douche.

Seeing as how I'll be late to the ASIC game no matter which vendor I choose to do business with, I think I'm going to go with BFL because their units look better. That's about all I've got to go on lol

LOL

That's taking the low road. Is that a movie quote? Sounds vaguely familiar.

Lies. You'd love his fingers all over you, wouldn't you? Pushing your buttons and poking all the right places. You disgust me.

Well that just means Gen 2 is going to be a helluva lot more expensive, doesn't it?

What happens if the dillute the cost of each GH/s so rapidly that Gen 2 has to be uber powered in order for them to sell it as an upgrade (even with a trade in).

It is complicated game of fumbling with numbers. I would hate to be Josh's calculator right now.

It will depend on BFL having any more delays.  If there are no more delays and BFL is able to build and ship quickly enough, they may survive this blow.  If they have to delay another couple weeks or a month (with Avalon then opening up batches 3 and 4, no doubt bigger than 1 and 2), I think the demand for refunds would be catastrophic.

Are you forgetting that BFL offers a 100% trade-up program for FPGA to ASICs? And they've said that they will prolly do another similar trade-up program for 2nd gen ASICs? So how exactly does BFL have an inferior upgrade path?

Avalon: I get to buy more hardware and manually swap out the ASIC chips myself. Lucky me!
BFL: I get to mail them my old miner for a massive discount towards a new miner. Lucky me!

I believe Avalon has put BFL in a tough spot. Miners and BTC in general are likely to benefit from the competition.

They already had their units upgraded by 50%. Though they (BFL) ate through thermal headroom and power capacity built into the MiniRig to do that.

Now a few BFL MiniRig customers are asking about how they are going to power this rig from a standard wall outlet. So far silence on the subject last I checked.

If BFL raises the GH/s of one Single. Guess what?


--------------------------

The problem is of course that BFL bought those pretty expensive EVGA power supplies. Really expensive units and hardly with any discounts according to Josh from BFL.

Now what? Where do they get the extra power from? A second Power Supply? How?

What kind of wall outlet will the customer of the MiniRig need if they jump each board from 60Gh/s to 90Gh/s?

Upgrades like that aren't free you know!

There are a boatload of issues to be considered very carefully. Or people will start demanding partial refunds...if not full refunds (I doubt the latter though).

As a great man once said, "True dat!".

If BFL customers consider that Avalon is upgradable (to what extent remains a question), then they may take a second look.

Assuming all modules in an Avalon case are exactly identical to each other. Then I can start mining at 65Gh/s~70Gh/s.

When the upgrades are released by Avalon, I'll have an upgrade path. With BFL none, except buying a very expensive second unit by comparison.

I can put in an order for (possibly) $350 and upgrade my units up to 90Gh/s. Do you think BFL will ramp up their small box/clamshell configuration to run up to 90Gh/s?

I don't think they will.

-----------------------

Here is the kicker though. Some Avalon users will not upgrade their internals. So as Avalon slowly moves from 110nm to 90nm or however low they need to in the future. The power draw will decrease and the GH/s per chip increases.

Assuming they have 25 chips in one unit. A small additional capacity change multiplied by (let say) 25 will result in a huge increase in speed and higher efficiency per box.

I can then sell off my old Rev1 modules to other miner who want to upgrade their 65~70Gh/s stock unit up to 90Gh/s.

I only need to pay the difference in price between the used modules and the newer Rev2 modules. Depending on the market price that could be, perhaps, 150$ extra out of my pocket for each Rev2 module.

If the current (REV 1) modules are 22Gh/s each, and the second gen (REV 2) modules jump to 30Gh/s or more. Can you guess how much I saved vs buying another BFL unit priced at $1299?

Lets say 30 x 4 = 120Gh/s for an upgrade path.
Lets say I had to pay a difference of $150 for each additional module.
So that is about $600 total to double the GH/s capacity.

What will BFL do? Slash prices?

Ouch, their first run customers would be screaming at the top of their lungs if they did that.

-------------------

The silence "sounds" to me like BFL is in the backroom talking about the "issue" before them.

Expect promises to come quickly, and actual changes very slowly.

Heh.

------------------

They have 8 chps and they can only overclock them so much before they seriously cut into the thermal headroom for normal operations. Lets see how big a jump they go to after 60Gh/s.

With more money and time, Avalons upgrade-able units will eventually drop in power use I'd bet.

What you should worry about is having to pay a whole $1300 + Shipping for an entirely different unit from BFL to keep up. Either way, competition is good.

Dude,
You are already in interesting BTC situation. I assume that you are BFL BTC paying customer. So if you want a refund now you will loose about 80% of your initial investment (because of BTC exchange rate and no full BTC refund). Correct? I guess yes. You have no other option expect to wait. Right? For how long - only good knows and of course i forgot Josh also. Imagine that he got flat tire wile trawling to the fab it will be national disaster i guess. And for sure it will cost a week or two of additional delay.

And the electrical disaster is much more profitable now. And will be.

Tell you the truth i feel that BFL and BTCFPGA are no different they all depend on China because they do not have the skills and knowledge to make it. And more over both companies are/were(BTCFPGA) willing to to deliver with honesty - no sarcasm here, but they just got fucked up by their partners. No matter how good you are in business the Chinese borders got the technology, they take you 100% money upfront and make you wait as long as tey want. It is not uncommon at all. That is what exactly happening here. Tom played wrong made a couple of promises and he is history. BFL is still here and for sure they will deliver some day. but it will be after CNY for sure and long after electrical disaster which has to be history by then:)

If BFL can hit even close to 1W/Gh efficiency, and fit a whopping 60Gh into the that small sandwich box, then I'll be replacing any Avalons I have with BFLs.

After the customer service ordeal with Avalon's Batch 2, I really don't want to deal with them if I have an alternative. I just wish BFL offered standalone units for under $2k 

Ah! Good to know, thanks for that.

Thankfully I didn't order 9 Avalons, or else I might be in an interesting electrical situation haha.

Power, measured in Watts can be expressed as Voltage multiplied by current in Amperes. So, if you know that you will be generating 3600W over a 120VAC (nominal) circuit then you can figure you will be drawing around 30A. That is not an outrageous number of Amps for a home circuit. Typical daisy-chained outlets in a room are supplied through a 15A or 20A breaker at the box. Knowing that you will be drawing at least 30A one would need to wire for likely a 60A breaker with the upgraded wiring to handle that much current. Optionally, one could spread the loads over multiple 15A or 20A circuits which would mean ASIC boxes in every room of the house but no reconfiguration of the wiring and an intimate knowledge of which outlets were on which breakers.

To answer your subject line, no, I'm not under the impression that Avalon is going to take away from BFL customers (at least not in any substantial way).

The way I see it, Avalon is great for people getting into ASIC on a smaller scale, maybe 1 or 2 units. They're more expensive, vastly larger than BFL units, and draw more power. I've got an order in to BFL for 9 Singles and a Jalapeno..and all of them will be able to sit on a single shelf (and cooled properly at that).
I could have placed the order for 9 Avalons, but that would require a 40U server rack to hold it all...not to mention I'm not entirely sure my house is laid out to supply 3600watts over an outlet (though I know zip about electrical engineering, so maybe someone could enlighten me here).

To that end, Avalon is still just offering a single product, compared to BFL's variety (which can tailor to a number of financial situations). And BFL accepts a few different pay methods as well


ASIC mining will be profitable even after we break into the 50m difficulty range, and long afterwards as well. Adding 14TH/s to the network isn't actually very much when taking into account all ASIC orders from all companies.


ASIC miners will undoubtedly take over the market and split the 6 blocks...just as thousands of GPU owners do right now.

Excuse me for indulging in some mild trolling outside of a designated trolling thread, but I'm willing to bet that BFL's staffing budget for their trolling accounts is going to pretty much dry up, lol

Come to think of it, where are the BFL uber Trolls? Oh yeah, they're running out of even vaguely plausible points to make, now that they're the 2nd worst performing non-deliverer (and they're still in the running for 1st place if they screw up again)

SO, although I'm still a skeptic, the Avalon folks pulled through and delivered a test unit like they said, so kudos to them!

BFL currently has their estimates of shipping their first wave of products to customers February 18th. Avalon is currently (or at lest one) shipping their product to customers and delivering 65Ghash/sec per unit. They SAY they're shipping 12 per day, meaning that let's say they continue to ship between now and the 18th, that'd be 14 THash/sec added to the network before the first BFL box even leaves their facility. That would represent a 50% growth in network speed and (I'm guessing) a 50% increase in difficulty, which (I assume) would mean a 50% drop in income for BFL customers who were counting on a quick ROI assuming they'd be first to market.

Side car question: Is the assumption that the thousands (?) of ASIC miners will eventually just corner the market and split the 6 blocks per hour once GPU miners drop off due to decreased income? I couldn't find a thread that discussed.