Bakkt’s bitcoin futures and warehouse to debut in September

BitHodler

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Quote from: dark08 on August 16, 2019, 06:40:39 PM

Eventually we cannot know what will happen during or before halving it can be dump or pump scenario but if you based on the historical chart of halving bitcoin create a massive pump up.

Historically the price has gone up before the block halving, then followed either by stagnation or a dump the first few months after the halving. Unless there is a catalyst that makes the price go up a lot, I can't see it do so without it.

I have been following the correlation between Litecoin and Bitcoin's price movements this year, and the similarities are striking. Bitcoin does what Litecoin does but with a two'ish month delay.

Litecoin's chart looks extremely bearish after breaking major support levels downwards, and from the looks, so is Bitcoin currently following a bearish trajectory with a descending triangle that's going to break out this or next month.

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on August 17, 2019, 02:42:25 PM

Quote from: exstasie on August 17, 2019, 12:55:06 PM

Why does it matter? It's not like cash settled futures affect the spot market; there's no arbitrage mechanism. I don't see anything wrong with people speculating on the price. Surely Bakkt's order books will benefit from such speculators when its markets launch.

I see Bitfinex-style margin as more problematic for the market: you can use cash collateral to short the spot market, or BTC collateral to long. This seems much more influential to price than the CBOE or CME markets.

It matters because these legacy cash settled platforms are gaining more dominance within this space. The CME market is no longer a market you can ignore.

Why? What evidence is there that CME has any effect on spot market prices? I certainly don't pay attention to it and I make a living trading BTC.

Quote from: 1Referee on August 17, 2019, 02:42:25 PM

It has consistently been delivering super high volumes that have gone through the $1 billion mark more than once, and that's just 8 hours worth of trading. In a space that's getting more and more institutionalized it's only going to gain more dominance.

Higher volumes maybe, but what do you mean by "dominance?" Nobody follows the CME because it doesn't have real supply and demand pressures. Anyone who wants to buy or sell real BTC needs to do it on a real spot exchange.

Let's say hypothetically institutions want to use cash to dump the price of BTC. They certainly can't do it on CME because it's tied to an index: other CME traders will simply bring the market back in line with spot prices.

Quote from: 1Referee on August 17, 2019, 02:42:25 PM

Bitfinex on the other hand isn't that dominant anymore. It has gone backwards after their many fuckups which lead to a massive outflow of capital.

Bitfinex is trading within $10 of the other spot exchanges. That means there is real arbitrage happening. It doesn't matter if you don't think they are "dominant" anymore. If large traders suppress prices on Bitfinex (for example, by leveraged shorting with USD) then arbitrage traders will flow into Bitfinex to buy up the cheap BTC. This absorbs real demand and takes from available fiat supply on the spot market.

Unlike CME, this has an actual tangible effect on price.

Quote from: 1Referee on August 17, 2019, 02:42:25 PM

Not really something I consider worth following. No institution will send a penny to Bitfinex.

Galaxy Digital was one such institutional customer: https://www.coindesk.com/nyag-bitfinex-tether-served-new-york-residents-longer-than-they-claim

I very much doubt they are the only one.

1Referee

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Quote from: exstasie on August 17, 2019, 12:55:06 PM

Why does it matter? It's not like cash settled futures affect the spot market; there's no arbitrage mechanism. I don't see anything wrong with people speculating on the price. Surely Bakkt's order books will benefit from such speculators when its markets launch.

I see Bitfinex-style margin as more problematic for the market: you can use cash collateral to short the spot market, or BTC collateral to long. This seems much more influential to price than the CBOE or CME markets.

It matters because these legacy cash settled platforms are gaining more dominance within this space. The CME market is no longer a market you can ignore. It has consistently been delivering super high volumes that have gone through the $1 billion mark more than once, and that's just 8 hours worth of trading. In a space that's getting more and more institutionalized it's only going to gain more dominance.

Bitfinex on the other hand isn't that dominant anymore. It has gone backwards after their many fuckups which lead to a massive outflow of capital. Not really something I consider worth following. No institution will send a penny to Bitfinex.

Juggy777

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Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on August 16, 2019, 04:30:02 PM

Mark your calendars and get out the popcorn!
What will happen with the price?
Dump from the perfect short setup? or A mad scramble to source coins to deliver and moon?

https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/cleared-to-launch-8dfc3e6f9ed0

It’s too late for Bakkt to come and have an immediate effect on bitcoin prices, as Bakkts launch has been delayed so many times that has caused people to loose their interest in it. Even if we do see some pumps I don’t expect them to last long, and the maximum we should expect is $13 - $14k levels. The markets are yet to react to this news, which makes me wonder what will happen if we see no pumps at all from this news?.

Bitcoinwaist

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so many positives.
how would you all like goldman sachs or any of the other brokerage houses to put out a buy recommendation to all its customers on bitcoin?
they cant now, but after bakkt launches they will, because they can acquire and hold the actual coins. they may sell their bags to the plebs after the buy recco but still they can now say it.

perfect timing : currency wars, interest rates plummeting, stock market tanking, recession talk(usa), gold up, might be the perfect storm?

#1 thing is that bitcoin needs new blood in the game, and this is it.

Wexlike

legendary

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Doesn't it mean that they re done buying the starter amount of coins to launch the project ?

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on August 17, 2019, 09:16:58 AM

Both CBOE and CME have indeed been the first to have launched after regulatory approval, but these cash settled futures are a product that belongs in a casino. These futures are backed by hot air. It gives anyone the opportunity to short without actually owning the asset. All you need is cash. Sucks. I'm glad CBOE quit.

Why does it matter? It's not like cash settled futures affect the spot market; there's no arbitrage mechanism. I don't see anything wrong with people speculating on the price. Surely Bakkt's order books will benefit from such speculators when its markets launch.

I see Bitfinex-style margin as more problematic for the market: you can use cash collateral to short the spot market, or BTC collateral to long. This seems much more influential to price than the CBOE or CME markets.

sana54210

legendary

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Bakkt has been trying to do this for a long long time, I am not even sure they will be capable of doing in September let alone make a dent in bitcoin in some way. Even if its shorting they will not be capable of making enough damage because not that many people will use it to short, look at bitmex that is the real place where people use shorting futures.

Because, if you want to be successful in bitcoin world you have to have volume, doesn't matter if its fake volume or real volume but that has to be a volume and without it (which bakkt doesn't have the hype) you gonna be only a small place doing what a big place is doing. At the best case bakkt will be a place for doing all these shorts and long futures for people who do not know how they can use bitmex and nothing more.

1Referee

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 17, 2019, 08:29:40 AM

Besides, haven't at least two or three other platforms somehow outdone them and launched cash settled futures earlier?

Both CBOE and CME have indeed been the first to have launched after regulatory approval, but these cash settled futures are a product that belongs in a casino. These futures are backed by hot air. It gives anyone the opportunity to short without actually owning the asset. All you need is cash. Sucks. I'm glad CBOE quit.

Bakkt's futures are backed by Bitcoin, which is an important difference. People need to give it some time and not expect them to turn over massive volumes.

Is it a sell the news event? Who knows, but I wouldn't want to put it to the test. I'll gladly buy that dip if so.

buwaytress

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Yeah... I don't think so. Those management guys at Bakkt have been known in the past to jump the gun countless times, kinda the Bakkt who cried wolf so even if it were true, the impact desired has long past. All that juice in the bank is gone now, goodwill notwithstanding.

Besides, haven't at least two or three other platforms somehow outdone them and launched cash settled futures earlier?

Bitcoinwaist

copper member

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I really do think this is a game changer. Finally a legit worldwide recognized name (NYSE) that invokes trust and security for the deepest pockets on the planet. I think that thousands of institutions/individuals will take positions and hold some bitcoin because it will be so easy for them to do it. That is going to be a lot of coins taken out of circulation for a long time. I also think that the whales are going to be challenged now that there are players who have pockets as deep as them. There will be more liquidity meaning there will be more buyers stepping up and buying discounted coins and less of the possibility of always being able to buy back cheaper. THe volume and dollar amounts that will be traded will dwarf all the existing bitcoin exchanges and they will become secondary. Price will be determined worldwide on a legitimate exchange finally. We will be seeing OTC type volumes. Think of all the wealthy people all over the world that just may want a little piece and now are completely safe and secure to be able to get in. Just my 2c.

adaseb

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I think the market will react but most likely until the moment it actually launches and it's live.

We have been hearing about Bakt since the bear market started in 2018 and it kept getting delayed and delayed. And basically right now people are no longer interested.

Maybe if it actually launches with a bang then maybe there will be a reaction. However I think that Sept / Oct in general is an active month for Stocks and Cryptos so there is a chance that it might launch at a good moment and bring us to a new ATH.

tabas

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Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on August 16, 2019, 04:30:02 PM

What will happen with the price?

We can't foresee the future but this is an exciting event for most of the bitcoin holders. How long we've been waiting for Bakkt to launch their bitcoin futures? Is the timing timely?
Majority thinks that this will boost the prices up just like what it did 2 years ago. It's Bakkt and it has a big name and this will create a FOMO.

Quote from: dark08 on August 16, 2019, 06:40:39 PM

Eventually we cannot know what will happen during or before halving it can be dump or pump scenario but if you based on the historical chart of halving bitcoin create a massive pump up.

Every after the halving, the trend rises which makes the price to pump harder.

dark08

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Quote from: BitHodler on August 16, 2019, 04:47:53 PM

I don't think many take them serious enough to consider it a short the news event. People are looking at the block halving and expect it to result in a massive pump, now that's what I call a short the news event.

Sure, the block halving dump will very likely be short-lived, but brutal enough to wipe out positions of those who aren't strong enough to withstand this market's brutality. People expect the moon but will face something else. Cheesy

Bakkt has become a meme. They need to prove being a platform that provides a useful enough product. Most institutions are already on CME's platform and don't care about physically settled futures.

Eventually we cannot know what will happen during or before halving it can be dump or pump scenario but if you based on the historical chart of halving bitcoin create a massive pump up.

Quote from: Bitcoinwaist on August 16, 2019, 04:30:02 PM

Mark your calendars and get out the popcorn!
What will happen with the price?
Dump from the perfect short setup? or A mad scramble to source coins to deliver and moon?

https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/cleared-to-launch-8dfc3e6f9ed0

O see a lot of memes in cryptogroup related regarding bakkt but I dont know if people will serously short setup lets just wait what will happen.

BitHodler

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I don't think many take them serious enough to consider it a short the news event. People are looking at the block halving and expect it to result in a massive pump, now that's what I call a short the news event.

Sure, the block halving dump will very likely be short-lived, but brutal enough to wipe out positions of those who aren't strong enough to withstand this market's brutality. People expect the moon but will face something else. Cheesy

Bakkt has become a meme. They need to prove being a platform that provides a useful enough product. Most institutions are already on CME's platform and don't care about physically settled futures.

Bitcoinwaist

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Mark your calendars and get out the popcorn!
What will happen with the price?
Dump from the perfect short setup? or A mad scramble to source coins to deliver and moon?

https://medium.com/bakkt-blog/cleared-to-launch-8dfc3e6f9ed0

Topic: Bakkt’s bitcoin futures and warehouse to debut in September (Read 183 times)