Topic: Banks would suffer till at least 2025, according to IMF (Read 607 times)

Honestly the real consequence of current pandemic could start from 2021 onward hence there would be no surprises if slow economic conditions will persist till 2025. I guess almost all the sectors will get suffered and not just banks. But, when traditional banks find hard time due to low production and more job losses, I guess institutional investors will not have more options to go with. So, there are more chances for bitcoins to stop them.

IT could be one of prominent sector to see more job losses due to recession. When more number of software development related people get into bitcoin for various reasons, we may see peaks on everywhere including mining difficulty and new businesses on crypto services. I am not seeing anything con for crypto space due to pandemic but how accurate will be the actual things from foreseen is the big question right now .

This is nothing more but a domino effect, it is going to be very interesting how governments are going to try to stop this because the last time there was a crisis with the banks they just rescue them by printing money as if there was no tomorrow and by getting indebted, if they try that solution once more it is possible they are going to put themselves at risk and the economy by creating a a scenario of hyperinflation, however the alternative of letting the banks fail even if fair will probably have very significant consequences for the economy as well, so there is no really an optimal solution for the economic crisis that we will face in the future.

I think it will be very difficult to leave the SWIFT system because the world already depends on this system. And the fact is faster than transactions using bitcoin.

The advantages of SWIFT are speed, low cost, and reliable data protection. Payments are also eliminated through this network when each party is under the same jurisdiction. SWIFT has helped the money supply in the global economy. Through this SWIFT network, globalization of the dollar to all countries of the world has been successful, SWIFT is denominated in dollars, which means facilitating the international dollar transaction system. Although SWIFT itself is neutral, it is not affiliated with politics but it also cannot be separated from US pressure.


Banks are indeed weak because the existence of fractional reserve banking creates wealth value based on speculation. If people all over the world withdraw cash from banks simultaneously, many banks will collapse because money has been printed hundreds of times the amount of available guarantee.

The effects of bitcoin traded for use in everyday life are very different. One only creates a pseudo surge, one can be the foundation of economic stability.

Banks with a low capital stock and a high share of loans. If loans were previously issued for the weakest sectors - transport, tourism, restaurant and hotel business. Such banks will suffer and may close after a pandemic.

That actually makes sense now so as:

Why JP. Morgan is suddenly interested in Bitcoins.
Why is China allowing users to categorize it as an asset.
Why Indian government have stopped posting ill-advised statements about the same .
Why in Ukraine you can buy And sell Bitcoins super easily.

Etc...
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I do think the government have realized their mistakes and so did most of the people.

A centralized body is bound to fail if they do not improve the network indefinitely.

Governmental strategies are not always the solution , people do need some freedom , some privacy . You know only 10% BTC is being used inappropriately , whereas the chances of Fiat being used is way over this .
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Banks are weak .

Their security does depend on the government which is printing money out of thin air , Making the economy weak . We are bound to go bankrupt if this continues.

If one would calculate the debt these central bodies carry , they will have a good idea of the current situation.

5 years is a big deal , people are not able to get though 5 months of quarantine here . One needs to somehow managed the situation ASAP !


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Banks will suffer forever. Unless Ripple Labs dont buy them out. Quite possible future. Like they bought Moneygram. 

In the just released headline of the financial times they report that banks in the UK fear that up to half of the receivers of the Bounce Back Loan Scheme would default, the total of which was £18.5billion

They are also predicting the collapse of hundreds of thousands of small businesses. It appears that some of the loans were not made in adherence to due protocol and would have not been given out otherwise. The size of those businesses makes it difficult for the government to take equity and if they are written off it would affect the lenders involved, which are the banks. And the collapse of so many SMEs would impact the market.

It seems to me that raising taxes now will be a terrible idea, many businesses are on the brink of bankruptcy, they need all the help the government can give to them if instead they get slapped with more and bigger taxes then many businesses will be forced to close their doors, in my opinion governments will have to learn to do more with less since we cannot afford to have such massive and inefficient governments anymore, if anything there should be a reduction on the amount of taxes charged to businesses and people in general to help alleviate the crisis.

I agree with the IMF's opinion that banks will suffer for at least another 5 years. And it will be even longer if in 5 years it doesn't
COVID-19 vaccine was found. But I believe that the American economy will be able to survive with this COVID-19 pandemic.
Even banks around the world are experiencing the same crisis, COVID-19 has caused crises in various sectors of human life.

If banks started asking fees from the depositors then they are not going to get more depositors and in long run people will move to online wallets been if they are less secured and banks also aware of it.So they will keep everything in an unnoticeable range so people may not get aware of it.

Banks will recover but they'll not gonna provide people with the affordable services, for sure their interest rates on loans will increase and maybe their deposit charges will change, it could be possible that they will reduce the interest given to depositors, and worst if they'll charge depositors, this happens in some countries, so I'm afraid it will happen to us.

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That's normally what would happen, bitcoin is decentralized, so a failure or a struggle of a centralized system will make the decentralized asset more valuable, and maybe the market now is the representation of that idea as bitcoin is still bullish despite the economic struggle.

I support your opinion. It is difficult to guess how Bitcoin will behave, but I want to believe that against the background of market collapses, cryptocurrency will feel good. Even hard times can be a new opportunity.

Don't worry they will make huge profits later once everything get back into normal, so its like a long term investment for the banking sector.

Its the time for decentralized cryptos to get evolved so try to accumulate more bitcoins as much as you possible then you will have assets with real value.

It all boils down to the unemployment rate and closing of businesses, major income of banks are coming from interest on loan, so when the economy are not good, they can't easily lean to people as the number of potential borrowers will decrease.

The government has a very big role, on recovering the economy, but we can't deny as well that taxes could probably increase as the government would want to recover first before us. Anyway, let's just watch it out, and we will remain hopeful that 5 years is just too long for the economy to recover.

Respect man! I agree with you 100%, who fucks banks, I would like banks to suffer and to die soon, if that's possible. But sadly it's not going to happen, government and banks are two strong alies, and they hold control over this world with money. They control supply, distribution, they even control how we can use that money.
Well anyway they are just a third party service, and with crypto we don't need any third party services. So who fucks the banks, they are going down anyway maybe there will be no banks in 2025.

^ Probably yes, the country's economy is devastated by the crisis surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. The advent and rise of the Coronavirus pandemic in the world was shocking and unpopular, even in seven of the world's largest nations. The threat and impact on the economy as well as human life have been enormous. The country's huge economic downturn is expected because of this pandemic and will make it difficult for even large nations to recover from the crisis caused by the Coronavirus. It took five years for each country to recover and recover from this pandemic until they could find no cure for the dread that everyone feared.

The problem is that the crisis we are facing is the very definition of a black swan, no one was expecting a pandemic of this magnitude to shock the world so no one was prepared for the effects and the consequences of this crisis, and if something else hits the world economy during the recovery period then things could get even worse, and truth to be told there is nothing we can do about it except to hope this does not happen, the economies around the world were already not in the best shape because the 2008 crisis was never really resolved and then this happened, if another black swan hits us then the economies of the world may not be strong enough to endure the impact.

In management, there is what is called contingency plan. Global recession that happened in 2008 is an eye opener while every countries must plan in case of unforeseen circumstances. Majority of banks that will be mostly affected will be banks in many third world countries. Especially countries that have been taking loan from international bodies like IMF. Countries like USA will be less affected even though they are greatly hit by the pandemic but i believe the can recover fast before the 2025 that IMF is saying.

Warren Buffet always LOVED when prices went down, he has been above for almost 90 years now I think and that means he has seen so many crashes that he knows eventually everything always recovers. Look at numbers in 1987 for example, it was a crash and it went under and right now we are a million times higher right? Of course inflation went up as well so it doesn't really mean anything but it still went up.

It means in 2020 when the crash happened if you bought as much as you can, eventually you will profit, not saying it will be right away but you will eventually recover in the long term. He is amassing cash to maybe make an acquisition? After all the best time to buy a company as a whole is when they are vulnerable, that way when this crisis is over you will own a huge company.

America is still able to survive so far because it is indeed under the responsibility of the United States really so therefore the banks need five years long enough I think this could suffer even worse because of waiting for quite a long time.

With this very bad economy, I'm sure this will continue even if slumps continue during this pandemic because I think America should be able to be consistent in some ways, including in its own country.

The IMF is not an international organization for nothing. The 2025 bounce back study of them surely have undergone serious study and investigation. They have been established long before we know it. We may see many people in the beaches and in the streets in America, it doesn't mean that their banks are not stumbling. Maybe they are just seeing the tip of the iceberg not the bottom. America may be a huge earning country but it also has lots of people to feed and over 1 million have alredy been infected.

I still agree that America is one powerful country. It will surely stabilize but not in a rapid way. This pandemic may last for more months to a year if a vaccine is still not found. So, once everything goes back to normal, America can rise up again easily.

When a bank makes profits,the profits go in the bank owners pockets.
When a bank has losses,those losses are covered by the government(taxpayers),by the central bank(newly printed money)or by the people,who deposited their savings in that bank.
Banks are the casinos of the global "casino capitalism". I couldn't care less about their financial condition.
Warren Buffet is kinda right here.America is still strong and this corona crisis won't lead to the collapse of the biggest economy in the world.

According to Q1 numbers, Berkshire Hathaway is amassing record amounts of cash, meaning they aren't buying equities. If we read between the lines, they are expecting deeper discounts to come.

So while Buffet may be expressing optimism (and over the long term he is probably right) that doesn't rule out a grim outlook for the next 2-3 years.

I think this not similar to the economic meltdown in 2008, wherein the banking system always collapse if not for the bail out of the US government because of the Lehman Brothers. Yes, it was followed by a global economic crisis, but banks has survived. They can suffer but for sure not in 5 years though.


Banks have plenty of money today, so they can play around with it to stir the US economy to be able to recover.

America can turn great depression into victory and prosperity after winning World War II. With QE to overcome subprime mortgages, America can still maintain its dominance as a barometer of the world economy. If the pandemic only attacks America maybe America will be defeated, but in reality all countries are affected by the corona pandemic and experiencing economic contraction.

But unlike America, other countries suffered two major beatings, namely the impact of the domestic pandemic and the impact of the pandemic on the American economy as a barometer of the world economy. If America faces a recession and China experiences a contraction you can imagine the effect of a pandemic on developing countries or countries that depend on foreign debt, countries that depend on imports and countries that depend on the dollar.

Some economic observers in Indonesia see the Berkshire Hathway action to release its shares in many industries as an indication of the economic reset that will be carried out by the Wall Street authorities. Many big Wall Street players sell their shares and hold fiat money. They do not care about the stock market crash because they have withdrawn the money because they read that the papers are overvalued and must be discarded.

Economic conditions due to the pandemic in America are the only repetition of old stories with different narratives. Whatever the conditions of the Wallstreet rulers, they are ready to face them because they are the rulers and they are the ones who determine the initial and final forms. Rothschild, Rockefeller, Oppenheimer, Muzin, Ican, Zukker are a group of mormons who have mastered Wallstreet for almost 4-5 generations.

Banks will "never" suffer, not just now and not until 2025. They will do a bit worse probably, but do you know the main reason? Because banks do more than just being banks and the understanding what banks do as a job changed over centuries. Normally it was a simple place where you deposit money, withdraw money, get savings interest, or get a loan and pay back with interest and that was it for a long period of time. Now banks gets a ton of money, plus they do insurance as well together, or have the biggest share in insurance companies.

So, they have plenty of money that they will never have to pay back, and they use that to buy out companies and buy 80-90% of big companies and use that income as profit of their own. Now that those companies are not making profit, banks are "not making profit" but they shouldn't have done that to begin with anyway.

5 years is a very long time IMO, and it could be shorten if the government carries on with babying the banks for its benefit. With the government corroborating with most of the banks' actions, I think the US gov't would give more favorable financial adjustments to the banks in order to stimulate their financial exploits and help carry America back to greatness. This has happened in the shadows for long though it might be too obvious after this pandemic.


Pretty sure Buffett already made some moves behind-the-scenes and doesn't want to make it known in order to take advantage of the leverage he's made. If you're a huge businessman like him, you'd definitely maximize the position you acquired to its fullest, and I think that is what he's been doing during the course of this pandemic.

I agree, 5 years is very long time and if banks need that long then other businesses and average people would need twice as that.
However, at this stage these are only predictions and guessings, probably in the worst scenario, but economy hasn't strarted to show bad signs yet and only fall and winter will show the true state of play. If another wave of virus doesn't strike again.
Stil I hope that economies will manage to recover sooner and that at the end all this predictions will turn out exaggerated.
However, hope for the best, expect the worst.

I agree, the minimum to average income earners will be the mostly affected for this crisis. It's a bad sign for the entire world and for those countries that just simply follows the lead of US, they'll also take the same path as them.

Some countries like Saudi Arabia increases their tax.

Saudi Arabia triples taxes, cuts $26B in costs amid pandemic

This action made by them is also likely to happen to US and that's why I've said that the minimum-average people will be the once to deal with this cost.

If a bank needs 5 years to recover, imagine how much the average Joe needs. We've been all hit much harder than a bank and the result will be seen pretty soon..

There are some very good indicators out there (good for predictions, not good as in positive) that show very well how hard this entire Corona thing hit us. For one, number of suicides & heart attacks in the past few weeks. More than half a million britons registered for a suicide prevention course. This entire situation hurts everything: health, our mental, the economy etc.

I keep waiting for that true face of the economy to be seen, because everyone's trying to cover it up and once the beast unleashes it's going to be a blitzkrieg from all sides..

America as an epicenter of the pandemic will obviously suffer a lot especially on its economy though their economy is highly developed and mixed, its structure cannot withstand with the effects of pandemic from million unemployment rate to billions of relief they need for their citizen. No one would really think that they are just going to bounce back easily. Just imagine if you are the president or any official from that state, you are handling 50 states with over 350 million residents, and 1.6M of those are infected with corona virus. 36 millions from that is unemployed that is covered for benefits from state, just imagine how much will that costs for America.

It might really take time before America can finally get back what they have lost during this pandemic since they are hugely affected by this. But it's not only America since a lot of countries are also facing the same dilemma. It might take 5 years if the vaccine can't be found immediately, and the government won't work efficiently to fight against the pandemic.

I kinda agree that America can still stand despite the big losses brought by the virus. When they can finally stabilize the growth of COVID cases and as long as they can adapt living normally with extra caution even when there's still a virus, the economy won't crash that hard. If they can learn from other countries who manage to control and flatten the curve, America can lessen its possible losses.

5 years is huge period to get back on track for any nation. When it comes to America then their wealth structure is pretty stubborn as compared to other nations worldwide. I believe US will surely retain its position of being top player of economy which it has done since 1871 as per study.

GDP of US is gonna be $21.44 trillion by the end of 2020 being in the endemic scenario of Corona. This is way more GDP than 2008 crisis which was about  $14,712,800 million. (Reference :- US GDP 2008)

Whether we predict it even worst value than mentioned above then also US stands bigger chance of improving its economic situation than anyone else.

It doesn't seem like the US could actually bounce back immediately after this, even with them being at the top. What more of those countries at the lower end right? Sure, the damage may not be as huge as what the US was inflicted but we've got to look at the scale instead. Plus, even if we did give at least 5 years to the banks, them bouncing back that fast seems to be out of the question. The vaccine hasn't even been made yet and there aren't really any positive news with regards to it after all, so it may actually take longer than that.

On a side note, Warren Buffett remarks the following


Basically Warren Buffet, a key player of the 2008 financial crisis, believes that America can still standstill despite the overwhelming losses that the economy of the US has experienced and would probably experience in the next few years. Nonetheless, he hasn't really made any large moves recently, even with the stocks dropping quite hugely.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/05/22/banks-earnings-will-suffer-until-2025-because-of-coronavirus-imf-says/#2988a50a798e

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/05/16/buffett-sells-stocks-goldman-sachs-no-elephant-sized-acquisition/#6f29ca7bbbf9