Hamilton should be a rock-solid favourite. And his chances will of course be increased by the fact that a lot of major sporting events were cancelled in 2020, no Olympics, no Euro 2020, etc.
Regardless of these, he should be favourite anyway for this year becoming statistically the greatest ever in his sport. But he has suffered here in the past, winning 6 world titles before but only 1 sports personality win... so it's by no means a definite. There is also some establishment backlash against the BLM movement, in which Hamilton has been a prominent figure, so this could also count against him.
I don't know who you're referring to as getting angry with the BLM movement, but I don't think that the BBC is among them. The BBC is tricky to figure out because I read that the left-wing media accuse it of being right-wing, but conservatives say it has left-wing liberal bias. I think it's close to the center, so there's no reason for them to be against the BLM movement. That being said, I don't think any elites within the BBC or elsewhere matter in this situation because it's the public vote that determines the winner of the award, right? Regardless of these, he should be favourite anyway for this year becoming statistically the greatest ever in his sport. But he has suffered here in the past, winning 6 world titles before but only 1 sports personality win... so it's by no means a definite. There is also some establishment backlash against the BLM movement, in which Hamilton has been a prominent figure, so this could also count against him.
I do agree with you that it's not a fact that Hamilton will win, though.
