Bear Trend Forming on 4 Hour Chart? | Bitcointalksearch.org

MatTheCat

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Quote from: Nikinger on December 12, 2013, 12:32:33 PM

Maybe we'll go that way?

What's the difference between the bubble in 2011 and now?

Because I fear repeating the 2011 bubble, I sold 35% of my Bitcoins.

I don't just fear a lower low (then $545), I am expecting it and betting on it.

I have sold 75% of my Bitcoins, mind you, being a Johnny come lately to the BTC speculation game, that isn't a whole lot of coins (22 to be precise and I am keeping just 6). In the fullness of time, I am one of those who believe that Bitcoin can go right to $10K and beyond, but in the near term, I think we will see the $300s before we see the $1000s again.

zby

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Quote from: Nikinger on December 12, 2013, 12:32:33 PM

Maybe we'll go that way?

What's the difference between the bubble in 2011 and now?

Because I fear repeating the 2011 bubble, I sold 35% of my Bitcoins.

This convinces me that it can indeed repeat 2011 - not enough fear - true fear would mean 100% bitcoins sold.

Nikinger

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Maybe we'll go that way?

What's the difference between the bubble in 2011 and now?

Because I fear repeating the 2011 bubble, I sold 35% of my Bitcoins.

proudhon

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Quote from: Hfertig on December 11, 2013, 01:03:06 PM

We are in a bear market. The volume above 1000 was thin. Lots of people are sitting on paper profits. Bulls at this current level will learn the same lesson as the bulls did in the previous two crashes. I don´t believe that 546 was the low. Sorry, but greed is not selling to protect profits, it is sitting on massive profits and being greedy for more.

This. This is the advice I followed when people said the same thing in early June 2011.

Haha, jk.

EvilPanda

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Small Red and Bad

Quote from: Edward50 on December 12, 2013, 02:06:07 AM

Quote from: EvilPanda on December 11, 2013, 04:02:38 PM

Quote from: Salivan on December 11, 2013, 03:38:48 PM

don't compare it to april because there are some very important differences
- lack of early adopters
- much lower fold in respect to floor ( 10 -> 266, 100 -> 1300 )
- and what most important China effect
Did anyone here noticed a huge volume in general when you add all exchanges. I can risk statement that we are "in summer" now when you look at this factor.
Changes are more rapid, back then a crash needed 6 months to unload. Now the same job is done within days.
And it wasn't really comparable crash in magnitude and overall reception.
In my opinion someone is simply probing how strong support is and its why we are falling. but believe me or not sentiment is still positive and we have room to go up.
Only thing I fear at this point is some formal preventive action against bitcoin ecosystem, with this exception I am bullish as never

+1
I can see a lot of positive reactions to btc. People just sell around $1000 because it seems a lot for an electronic coin. It's going to take some time before they get used to price staying above $800 and then we'll go up again.

That's if it stays above $800. Looks weak and low volume.

It's not a typical stock. If the Greek/Cyprian crysis hits another country or a big company enters the market we might have an instant rally. Right now we are slowing down because, since last weekend, there was no spark to ignite the fuel. The only thing you can be quite sure with BTC is that it's going up in the long run, so this spark will eventually come. If it's soon then the price won't fall much, if not we might even see that 500 you're waiting for Wink

MatTheCat

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Yup....looking weak. If the price is going to go shooting in any direction any time soon, then that direction certainly won't be ^UP^

Here is my buy in ladder:

Order type   Date and time   BTC amount   Bitcoin price   Order value   Order status
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   4.00000000   $580.00   $2,320.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   5.00000000   $540.00   $2,700.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   6.00000000   $500.00   $3,000.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:24 p.m.   6.00000000   $480.00   $2,880.00   Open   Cancel
Buy   Dec. 11, 2013, 6:25 p.m.   4.50000000   $440.00   $1,980.00   Open   Cancel

Just hope it doesn't go too much lower than the $400....perhaps I will take out the $580 and put in a $400 tranche....hrmmm?

My last buy in was pretty good...lowest buy in tranche was at $600, it went to $545. Will see how this one goes. I don't expect to get it imminently, but then I never expected to get my last one so soon (sold 75% of what I bought), but I ended up getting it basically the following day....was the weekend though.....Friday evening, nobody watching, not new money getting into exchanges..etc.

Edward50

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Quote from: EvilPanda on December 11, 2013, 04:02:38 PM

Quote from: Salivan on December 11, 2013, 03:38:48 PM

don't compare it to april because there are some very important differences
- lack of early adopters
- much lower fold in respect to floor ( 10 -> 266, 100 -> 1300 )
- and what most important China effect
Did anyone here noticed a huge volume in general when you add all exchanges. I can risk statement that we are "in summer" now when you look at this factor.
Changes are more rapid, back then a crash needed 6 months to unload. Now the same job is done within days.
And it wasn't really comparable crash in magnitude and overall reception.
In my opinion someone is simply probing how strong support is and its why we are falling. but believe me or not sentiment is still positive and we have room to go up.
Only thing I fear at this point is some formal preventive action against bitcoin ecosystem, with this exception I am bullish as never

+1
I can see a lot of positive reactions to btc. People just sell around $1000 because it seems a lot for an electronic coin. It's going to take some time before they get used to price staying above $800 and then we'll go up again.

That's if it stays above $800. Looks weak and low volume.

EvilPanda

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Activity: 658

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Small Red and Bad

Quote from: Salivan on December 11, 2013, 03:38:48 PM

don't compare it to april because there are some very important differences
- lack of early adopters
- much lower fold in respect to floor ( 10 -> 266, 100 -> 1300 )
- and what most important China effect
Did anyone here noticed a huge volume in general when you add all exchanges. I can risk statement that we are "in summer" now when you look at this factor.
Changes are more rapid, back then a crash needed 6 months to unload. Now the same job is done within days.
And it wasn't really comparable crash in magnitude and overall reception.
In my opinion someone is simply probing how strong support is and its why we are falling. but believe me or not sentiment is still positive and we have room to go up.
Only thing I fear at this point is some formal preventive action against bitcoin ecosystem, with this exception I am bullish as never

+1
I can see a lot of positive reactions to btc. People just sell around $1000 because it seems a lot for an electronic coin. It's going to take some time before they get used to price staying above $800 and then we'll go up again.

piramida

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Borsche

I have my lowest buys at $650 since I seriously doubt we get anywhere lower than that. More like some wide swings in the 700-1200 region until an ATH is made. Speculation paradise!

Salivan

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DiMS dev team

don't compare it to april because there are some very important differences
- lack of early adopters
- much lower fold in respect to floor ( 10 -> 266, 100 -> 1300 )
- and what most important China effect
Did anyone here noticed a huge volume in general when you add all exchanges. I can risk statement that we are "in summer" now when you look at this factor.
Changes are more rapid, back then a crash needed 6 months to unload. Now the same job is done within days.
And it wasn't really comparable crash in magnitude and overall reception.
In my opinion someone is simply probing how strong support is and its why we are falling. but believe me or not sentiment is still positive and we have room to go up.
Only thing I fear at this point is some formal preventive action against bitcoin ecosystem, with this exception I am bullish as never

Hfertig

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Activity: 361

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Hfertig on December 11, 2013, 03:21:42 PM

No, no trouble to feed them, but I want to work less, to spend more time with them. Not possible with a second job. Let´s say I have been speculating in 2011 and not afterwards...

I can't blame you there! Best of luck to you.

The same to you mate ! Let´s see how it is going to turn out....

pbody

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Quote from: bitcon on December 11, 2013, 03:05:16 PM

i put in a strong wall at $700. lets see if it gets filled.

I'm putting it at 800.

Hfertig

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No, no trouble to feed them, but I want to work less, to spend more time with them. Not possible with a second job. Let´s say I have been speculating in 2011 and not afterwards...

Hfertig

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Activity: 361

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Hfertig on December 11, 2013, 02:56:30 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: MatTheCat on December 11, 2013, 02:39:53 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm a bit dull, could you just tell me the lesson so I don't have to wait until I learn it on my own?

Sell now, buy back in at inevitably lower prices like I am doing.

Hope that helps clear things up for you.

So... you want me to risk trusting an exchange, force myself to deal with tax issues (along with foreign account issues), and convert my bitcoins into something I despise (money that is controlled by the few for their own benefit), in hopes that I beat the odds (most speculators lose) and will be able to purchase more bitcoins in the future?

Fuck that. I'll just buy more with whatever fiat I happen to find during a crash.

I guess it really depends where you live.

In Germany Bitcoin profits are tax free after one year and I do cash out via Bitcoin.de, where people send the money directly to my bank account....

So basically after the crash you sit on a pile of Fiat (which you need at some stage anyway for food, rent, gas....) and the same amount of bitcoins, maybe more. Don´t see anything wrong with that. No train to be missed at these prices...
Even if it is less Bitcoins, I would not really care...

Indeed. If there was an exchange available to me which I trusted, and a less cumbersome tax burden, I would certainly consider playing the market (in the hopes of winning more bitcoin). I think my paranoia about exchanges and reluctance to make a move which would require dealing with taxes has saved me quite a bit of money (bitcoin or fiat) in the past three years.

I certainly do understand you !

accord01

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Quote from: BitChick on December 11, 2013, 11:35:07 AM

Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now? I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream. Now that seems cheap. The same thing will happen to $1000.

No ma'am, that is hardly why.

Hfertig

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Activity: 361

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: MatTheCat on December 11, 2013, 02:49:42 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

So... you want me to risk trusting an exchange, force myself to deal with tax issues (along with foreign account issues), and convert my bitcoins into something I despise (money that is controlled by the few for their own benefit), in hopes that I beat the odds (most speculators lose) and will be able to purchase more bitcoins in the future?

Fuck that. I'll just buy more with whatever fiat I happen to find during a crash.

Hooray for the 'buy in at any price crowd'.

Afterall, there has got to be someone to buy out our bad bets.

Now if you don't mind, I will place you on ignore. you haven't insulted me or anything like that, its just that I figure that if I can slowly block out all the brain damage merchants polluting this place, this forum section might just be a place where one can glean insight and good advice.

It sounds like you are only here for fiat profits. I'm sorry to hear that, Bitcoin is so much more. Some day you might realize that. Then again, it might be the brain damage talking...

Mate, I got a family of 5 to feed, no time for ideological feelings. If I want to believe I go to church... I would guess most people are here for the same reason.

Hfertig

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Quote from: seleme on December 11, 2013, 02:58:44 PM

I always wondered how do you prove to German tax authorities that you've hold your BTC for one year??

Easy, just show them your transaction history. Of course you need to download and save it once in a while

bitcon

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i put in a strong wall at $700. lets see if it gets filled.

seleme

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Duelbits.com

I always wondered how do you prove to German tax authorities that you've hold your BTC for one year??

Hfertig

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: MatTheCat on December 11, 2013, 02:39:53 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm a bit dull, could you just tell me the lesson so I don't have to wait until I learn it on my own?

Sell now, buy back in at inevitably lower prices like I am doing.

Hope that helps clear things up for you.

So... you want me to risk trusting an exchange, force myself to deal with tax issues (along with foreign account issues), and convert my bitcoins into something I despise (money that is controlled by the few for their own benefit), in hopes that I beat the odds (most speculators lose) and will be able to purchase more bitcoins in the future?

Fuck that. I'll just buy more with whatever fiat I happen to find during a crash.

I guess it really depends where you live.

In Germany Bitcoin profits are tax free after one year and I do cash out via Bitcoin.de, where people send the money directly to my bank account....

So basically after the crash you sit on a pile of Fiat (which you need at some stage anyway for food, rent, gas....) and the same amount of bitcoins, maybe more. Don´t see anything wrong with that. No train to be missed at these prices...
Even if it is less Bitcoins, I would not really care...

humanitee

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Activity: 1302

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Quote from: MatTheCat on December 11, 2013, 02:49:42 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

So... you want me to risk trusting an exchange, force myself to deal with tax issues (along with foreign account issues), and convert my bitcoins into something I despise (money that is controlled by the few for their own benefit), in hopes that I beat the odds (most speculators lose) and will be able to purchase more bitcoins in the future?

Fuck that. I'll just buy more with whatever fiat I happen to find during a crash.

Hooray for the 'buy in at any price crowd'.

Afterall, there has got to be someone to buy out our bad bets.

Now if you don't mind, I will place you on ignore. you haven't insulted me or anything like that, its just that I figure that if I can slowly block out all the brain damage merchants polluting this place, this forum section might just be a place where one can glean insight and good advice.

Pot, meet kettle.

sgbett

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I find it best to block everyone that doesn't share my world view, lest it hurts my fragile ego ...

MatTheCat

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Quote from: ?? on ??

So... you want me to risk trusting an exchange, force myself to deal with tax issues (along with foreign account issues), and convert my bitcoins into something I despise (money that is controlled by the few for their own benefit), in hopes that I beat the odds (most speculators lose) and will be able to purchase more bitcoins in the future?

Fuck that. I'll just buy more with whatever fiat I happen to find during a crash.

Hooray for the 'buy in at any price crowd'.

Afterall, there has got to be someone to buy out our bad bets.

Now if you don't mind, I will place you on ignore. you haven't insulted me or anything like that, its just that I figure that if I can slowly block out all the brain damage merchants polluting this place, this forum section might just be a place where one can glean insight and good advice.

humanitee

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Not one China chart? Cool analysis bros.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I'm a bit dull, could you just tell me the lesson so I don't have to wait until I learn it on my own?

Sell now, buy back in at inevitably lower prices like I am doing.

Hope that helps clear things up for you.

Odalv

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Hfertig on December 11, 2013, 01:03:06 PM

Bulls at this current level will learn the same lesson as the bulls did in the previous two crashes.

I'm a bit dull, could you just tell me the lesson so I don't have to wait until I learn it on my own?

You will learn that after "crash", you have at least same amount of Bitcoin if no more and not only half. :-)

Wekkel

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yes

Quote from: Hfertig on December 11, 2013, 01:03:06 PM

We are in a bear market.
[...]
I don´t believe that 546 was the low.
[...]

You, Sir, are violating a very important rule on this forum Grin

Rygon

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Quote from: MatTheCat on December 11, 2013, 01:52:57 PM

Quote from: Rygon on December 11, 2013, 01:41:57 PM

Yeah, I can only speculate from the US side, where the tax year runs Jan to Dec. The USD volume in BTC is still about 50%, combined Gox and Bitstamp. I'd say that's pretty equal with the Chinese, even though BTCChina has the single largest exchange.

m8, folks from all across the world are buying and selling BTC in US dollars because that is the currency of the main exchanges, not because we all have to pay taxes to the US government.

Ah, good point.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: Rygon on December 11, 2013, 01:41:57 PM

Yeah, I can only speculate from the US side, where the tax year runs Jan to Dec. The USD volume in BTC is still about 50%, combined Gox and Bitstamp. I'd say that's pretty equal with the Chinese, even though BTCChina has the single largest exchange.

m8, folks from all across the world are buying and selling BTC in US dollars because that is the currency of the main exchanges, not because we all have to pay taxes to the US government.

Rygon

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Quote from: MatTheCat on December 11, 2013, 01:22:00 PM

Quote from: Rygon on December 11, 2013, 01:16:16 PM

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Tax? January?

My tax year runs from April to April m8.

I am not sure when the Chinese (by far the main market for Btc these days) pay their taxes either.

Yeah, I can only speculate from the US side, where the tax year runs Jan to Dec. The USD volume in BTC is still about 50%, combined Gox and Bitstamp. I'd say that's pretty equal with the Chinese, even though BTCChina has the single largest exchange.

Hfertig

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Quote from: MatTheCat on December 11, 2013, 01:22:00 PM

Quote from: Rygon on December 11, 2013, 01:16:16 PM

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Tax? January?

My tax year runs from April to April m8.

I am not sure when the Chinese (by far the main market for Btc these days) pay their taxes either.

that´s only iin the uk m8.... most other counties tax years go from jan till dec.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: Rygon on December 11, 2013, 01:16:16 PM

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Tax? January?

My tax year runs from April to April m8.

I am not sure when the Chinese (by far the main market for Btc these days) pay their taxes either.

John999

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Quote from: Hfertig on December 11, 2013, 01:03:06 PM

We are in a bear market. The volume above 1000 was thin. Lots of people are sitting on paper profits. Bulls at this current level will learn the same lesson as the bulls did in the previous two crashes. I don´t believe that 546 was the low. Sorry, but greed is not selling to protect profits, it is sitting on massive profits and being greedy for more.

+1

Rygon

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Quote from: BitChick on December 11, 2013, 11:35:07 AM

Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now? I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream. Now that seems cheap. The same thing will happen to $1000.

December was a slow month last year too, with price drifting lower. There are probably enough bitcoiners out there who are cashing out a little bit to pay for the holidays that the price is going lower. I expect things to pick back up in February and March, much like last year. The positive news lately hasn't been lifting up the price as much as we'd expect specifically because most newcomers are too busy around the holidays to do their research. Some folks could be more likely to sell in December instead of January because of tax reasons.

Hfertig

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We are in a bear market. The volume above 1000 was thin. Lots of people are sitting on paper profits. Bulls at this current level will learn the same lesson as the bulls did in the previous two crashes. I don´t believe that 546 was the low. Sorry, but greed is not selling to protect profits, it is sitting on massive profits and being greedy for more.

sumantso

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Quote from: BitChick on December 11, 2013, 11:35:07 AM

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream. Now that seems cheap. The same thing will happen to $1000.

Just because something has happened earlier doesn't mean it will keep happening.

I do believe we will break the current ATH, but not as soon as most hear think it would be. There is also that doom-and-gloom scenario predicted by EWT worshippers (which I am quite skeptical about, more out of greed than anything, tbh).

sumantso

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I have been bearish since the start of this month. Buying in the crashes, of course; but maybe selling a bit too quickly. Catching the top and bottom is always much tougher than spotting trends.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: BitChick on December 11, 2013, 11:35:07 AM

Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now? I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream. Now that seems cheap. The same thing will happen to $1000.

I think more along the lines off:

"Perhaps if the average price of Bitcoins being held in wallets is less than $100, then now that the surge of buying power has clearly subsided, it is going to become more and more clear to holders of BTC that now is the time to cash out."

This is not the end of Bitcoin, far from it, but definitely looks to me like a period of consolidation at best, and bear trending at worst. Perhaps the low (currently $546) is actually not yet in?

BitChick

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Perhaps people need cash for Christmas right now? I would think that December would be a slow month for Bitcoin anyways.

$1000 per coin is nothing compared to what it could be.

I am sure everyone thought $10 a coin was high, then $100 was considered a dream. Now that seems cheap. The same thing will happen to $1000.

Edward50

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Yup, it is looking very weak for bitcoin right now.

It never made sense to me that it rose back up to $1000 so fast. It should really be sub-500.

This recent recovery was a very weak low volume recovery.

Too many people are cashing out and they do it slowly to make sure the exchanges don't rob their bitcoins. There is no way that the demand for $1000 bitcoins is there to cash out all these people.

Think about it $1000 bitcoins, crazy.

fr33d0miz3r

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Agreed.
And the today's recent selloff broke the support provided by 2-, 5-, 10- and 14-day EMAs again.

MatTheCat

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Looks to me like we have the start of a bear trend forming on the longer term 4 hour chart.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This would seem reasonable to me, as Bitcoin has shot up very very fast, we have had a double top, and now a strong correction from a recovery that fell well short of the top, and a bounce from that which looks to be falling well short of the recovery target of around $980 on Bitstamp.

Perhaps we are entering another 'traders market' for the next few months, as seen post April 2013?

Topic: Bear Trend Forming on 4 Hour Chart? (Read 3278 times)