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Topic: Bearish side of futures. (not shorting) (Read 321 times)

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1001
December 08, 2017, 05:41:11 PM
#8
Why are you always saying that the futures are going to be a bad move on bitcoin?

I have always thaught the opposite about them, in fact, everybody is happy about seeing that a lot of economic institutions are now being interested about operating with bitcoin.

First, it was the CME, then, it was Walls Street, then the another one who i dont remember the name, and then japan decided to do the same, i dont know what is going to happen, but i am pretty sure that they are not going to dump the price, only because they do not have a method to do it.

Do you guys really think that because they are going to release a "future contract" they are going to be able to move billions and billions of dollars out of the market?
full member
Activity: 155
Merit: 100
December 08, 2017, 01:30:15 PM
#7
Bingo.

This guy knows. He is TERA. I 'member.

Wasn't Tera she instead of he? This is how I member it.
legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
December 08, 2017, 11:44:45 AM
#6
OP what’s your agenda? You’re trying too hard, nearly every post you make is predicting epic crashes & or dumps.
What’s the real reason, are you butthurt & all out of bitcoin’s after selling your entire stash way too early? Did you convert 100% into some shitcoin, Roger/Jihan coin? What’s the real reason for the over the top pessimism?
sr. member
Activity: 317
Merit: 252
December 08, 2017, 10:24:23 AM
#5
Since learning about how the btc futures work, I am less bullish on the matter. They are cash settled meaning they are just bets and arent every settled against real bitcoins. Each owner has a brokerage account that is restricted to them that holds their bets. At the end of the trades the exchange uses bitcoin's price on real exchanges as an imaginary reference rate to settle the bets. Its like betting on horses. Those with losing bets pay those with winning bets - but never are real bitcoins actually touched - no clearinghouse is ever going to buy from bitstamp, etc. in relation to futures. I cant think of a way to arbitrage either, since futures cant be transferred away from their owner.

Futures are a trick and are not actually increasing the public's exposure to bitcoin at all.

Here is the potentially bearish take:

What is the limit on the futures? It has nothing to do with the amount of real bitcoins, since there is no settlement with real bitcoins. There could be billions of these futures. So essentially we have a limitless number of worthless imaginary coins being dumped to all wannabe bitcoin investors instead of them buying real bitcoins. Futures are keeping traders who were interested in buying real bitcoins on real exchanges, instead buying imaginary bitcoins on imaginary exchanges where they support the banks. It is effectively keeping them OUT of the bitcoin ecosystem right where the banks want them. Meanwhile our market cap of real bitcoins is not increasing at all. In fact we might even be having some of our traders SELLING and LEAVING so that they can trade on more reliable futures exchanges.

YES. I am thinking the same thing.

Question: Does money rush into the futures as soon as they start trading (Sunday night!) and bitcoin itself drops?

We are about to crash, I just figured we might have a little more time.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 252
December 08, 2017, 05:41:03 AM
#4
Great points! I Agree with you. I don't really think that it will help Bitcoin at all. Bitcoin Futures exists to easily manipulate the price of Bitcoin, attracting new investors to Bitcoin Futures which is not directly connected to Bitcoin ecosystem, From FUD to this, It is actually a great way to slowly pull out the money out of Bitcoin ecosystem.

Bitcoin Futures will make Bitcoin's price decrease from time to time. Though I agree with your points, I am still thinking twice on their real intention if it is good at all ( Obviously it is not, but then again, I am still thinking twice). 2nd week of December is the launch of CME Bitcoin Futures, which is a critical weak for everyone who's into cryptocurrency, specially the HODLERS and Investors, I hope we are both wrong on our speculations (that CME Bitcoin Futures is just a strategy to pull out money on Bitcoin ecosystem) .
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
December 08, 2017, 05:01:49 AM
#3
Since learning about how the btc futures work, I am less bullish on the matter. They are cash settled meaning they are just bets and arent every settled against real bitcoins. Each owner has a brokerage account that is restricted to them that holds their bets. At the end of the trades the exchange uses bitcoin's price on real exchanges as an imaginary reference rate to settle the bets. Its like betting on horses. Those with losing bets pay those with winning bets - but never are real bitcoins actually touched - no clearinghouse is ever going to buy from bitstamp, etc. in relation to futures. I cant think of a way to arbitrage either, since futures cant be transferred away from their owner.

Futures are a trick and are not actually increasing the public's exposure to bitcoin at all.

Here is the potentially bearish take:

What is the limit on the futures? It has nothing to do with the amount of real bitcoins, since there is no settlement with real bitcoins. There could be billions of these futures. So essentially we have a limitless number of worthless imaginary coins being dumped to all wannabe bitcoin investors instead of them buying real bitcoins. Futures are keeping traders who were interested in buying real bitcoins on real exchanges, instead buying imaginary bitcoins on imaginary exchanges where they support the banks. It is effectively keeping them OUT of the bitcoin ecosystem right where the banks want them. Meanwhile our market cap of real bitcoins is not increasing at all. In fact we might even be having some of our traders SELLING and LEAVING so that they can trade on more reliable futures exchanges.

I agree it will pull new money away from buying bitcoin ... and feel there will be a ton of manipulation of Bitcoin pricing so the futures pay off for certain people.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
December 08, 2017, 04:49:57 AM
#2
Bingo.

This guy knows. He is TERA. I 'member.
full member
Activity: 266
Merit: 222
Deb Rah Von Doom
December 08, 2017, 04:46:04 AM
#1
Since learning about how the btc futures work, I am less bullish on the matter. They are cash settled meaning they are just bets and arent every settled against real bitcoins. Each owner has a brokerage account that is restricted to them that holds their bets. At the end of the trades the exchange uses bitcoin's price on real exchanges as an imaginary reference rate to settle the bets. Its like betting on horses. Those with losing bets pay those with winning bets - but never are real bitcoins actually touched - no clearinghouse is ever going to buy from bitstamp, etc. in relation to futures. I cant think of a way to arbitrage either, since futures cant be transferred away from their owner.

Futures are a trick and are not actually increasing the public's exposure to bitcoin at all.

Here is the potentially bearish take:

What is the limit on the futures? It has nothing to do with the amount of real bitcoins, since there is no settlement with real bitcoins. There could be billions of these futures. So essentially we have a limitless number of worthless imaginary coins being dumped to all wannabe bitcoin investors instead of them buying real bitcoins. Futures are keeping traders who were interested in buying real bitcoins on real exchanges, instead buying imaginary bitcoins on imaginary exchanges where they support the banks. It is effectively keeping them OUT of the bitcoin ecosystem right where the banks want them. Meanwhile our market cap of real bitcoins is not increasing at all. In fact we might even be having some of our traders SELLING and LEAVING so that they can trade on more reliable futures exchanges.
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