Topic: Bears take on the current price? Input need from Bears only (Read 1279 times)

Saying it is no support for higher prices is different than saying it places pressure on the price (downward).

Another way to look at it.  If the block reward had always been 25 BTC would we still be at $2.x right now?  What if the block reward has been 1 BTC or 1,000,000 BTC?

Also as others have pointed out difficult =/= reward.  Rising difficulty affects miner profitability but makes no change in the daily supply of new coins.  Falling block reward may also affect miner profitability (although I believe difficulty will continue to decline over the next year) but it is different in that daily supply is reduced.

baby jesus christ + fat budda,

 

Block reward =! Difficulty.

One is adjustable and one isnt. Guess what will be adjusted?

Sometime in the future (maybe 2013) bitcoin mining will reward miners with 25 btc per block instead of the current 50 btc.  That's a halving of the financial reward, or a doubling of the difficulty required to achieve 50 btc per kilowatt of power spent.

Most people contend this will cause bitcoins to increase in value as they become harder to create.  I counter that judging by past data from this year, an increasing difficulty in creating bitcoins is no support at all for a higher price. 

I think it's an overcorrection, will trend back down soon, or will as soon as people start cashing out before it drops again. 

Wait what? and what?

Fundamentals Bear here.  I've said for a while that the fundamental floor is in the low cents range.  The bottom will be an order of magnitude higher - tens of cents - at which point it may be cheap enough for the permabulls to hoard enough supply to keep it propped up.

Right now the price is stable because a few people (perhaps even just one) with a lot of money is gently nudging the price around.  It might be philanthropy.  It might be a market maker creating controlled volatility to exploit.  As long as they're willing to keep doing it the way they have been, the market will stay where it is.  Ultimately the high price will just over-subsidize mining until people get tired of wasting money.  Once they pull out, the price will head toward fundamentals.  The only thing that will intervene is a large hype campaign to launch another bubble; but regardless all bubbles eventually burst.

Long term the growth has to be driven by fundamentals, which are driven by increasing commerce.  Until I see that happening (or we finally reach the fundamental price), I'm keeping my bear hat on.

One thing we have consistently seen over the past few months is a plateau of stability where people think 'phew! the price has stabilised and can't fall further', right before new lows due to rapid sell offs.  Falling from $4 to $2 is just as bad as $30 to $15, percentage wise.  I don't think bitcoins will once again be worth cents each, but I also think people are placing far too much hope in future developments.  The 50 to 25 btc block reward is one such very often claimed hope.  I actually think it would place pressure to reduce the price of bitcoins, not increase them.  It's like doubling the difficulty today.

There are only 7700K bitcoins in existance. There are 7500 coming to market every day which on a percentage basis anymore becomes less and less important. Once the issue rate halves then it will be even more dramatic. This is why bitcoin as a currency is intended to be much better than fiat currencies which get issued at an increasing percentage rate.

Bid 2     53590.2
Bid 2.05 19367.82
Bid 2.1   27881.07
Bid 2.15 10895.42
Bid 2.2   12197.71
Bid 2.25 5141.49
Bid 2.3   5594.79
Bid 2.35 5372.81
Bid 2.4   6338.23
Bid 2.45 6720.36
Bid 2.5   6207.89
Bid 2.55 2860.6


These are some bidwalls that are being put up. It is obviously done by the same person.

I really should not overlook the fundamentals. This guy is artificially keeping the price higher, so he will have to pay for it out of his own pocket. How long can he do this for? Especially considering the higher the price goes the more money it takes him to keep the artificial price at that higher point.

There is still 7500K of bitcoins entering the market new every day. This will eventually be too much for him to try and maintain.

But I should not be fooled by his manipulation attempts. It does seem to offer some security, but many times he has pulled out and the price shot down by a large amount.

I think I will sit this one out. It could be in his strategy to eventually pull out.

Lets look at the obvious here. If he wanted to buy bitcoins, why would he put up all the bidwalls making the price higher for himself. This would be a bad strategy to buy bitcoins. He has obviously alternative motives with these bidwalls, and it is not to buy bitcoins.

I am uncertain on that. I still consider it more likely that we will drop under the $2 mark but I don't rule out the possibility that we don't.

Buying now might also not get you the best deal regardless, since there will be a correction from this rally which I think will end with a little over 2.6.
I would consider the possibility of market reversal if we reach the higher 3s after that.

If that doesn't happen I estimate the ultimate bottom to be somewhere in the penny range. I say this because a full fledged bubble collapse is usally steeper than expected so that's the prices where I would consider buying in hard. If you look at the all time weekly RSI indicator it is currently at 40 it shot over 90 in the bubble so for me the buy area is around 20.

In the meantime there is bitcoinica

Hello fellow bitcoin bears,

I was wondering if you guys think we hit bottom or are we still looking to hit bottom?

To me it looks like the market can be easily manipulated to have a price floor. Which looks like it is the case right now. I am starting to think some big players will spend the money to put the floor in then have bitcoin price fall below $1.00, which I think it would if it was not for these players.

When bitcoin was well over $10 or $15 dollars, I claimed that I would buy in around $2.00. That seemed far fetched at the time to most, but that seemed to be what I thought bitcoin would hit. NOw that it reached $2.00, and it looks like bit market players are putting in a price floor, maybe this is the bottom?

I already lost big with my oil gamble, waiting for it to hit around $20 dollars a few years back, it hit around $30, and never looked back. I was being too bearish with my $20 mark, but looking at historical pricing it seemed feasible. Still was very close to my mark as oil was what $150 just some months before that.

Seems like there is little risk for it dropping lower, and we will have plenty of time to pull out if it does.

Let me know what you fellow bears think. Or is this just another little rise before another drop. If history is any predictor, then this would surely be the case.

Only bears comments here, I know plenty of you bulls think it was a great buy at $5, $10, $15, $20, $25, $30. So it is a great buy for you at the current level also.