Topic: Beginning of the trend reversal (Read 2950 times)

In stock market, 20% is an indication for trade reversal, but in bitcoin trading, maybe 50% or higher is required.

I am not into the daily trading, but having the longer term perspective. From my point of view this recent action is still just a correction, not a trend reversal yet. It takes at least a 20% move to start talking about trend reversals. For now I see the zone $350-400 as a solid support.

Those who are waiting for the price to go down currently, will end up buying at much higher prices because they were waiting for something that doesn't happen. Buy now and enjoy.

Yes it seems nothing gonna pull the price to below 400 within some weeks. better buy at 400 if you see that and hold till 450 or 440 to sell off, nice oppurtunity for day traders.

When the cost of short term trading is lifted from $250 to $400, the price can go up to over $500 easier.

Good luck with your trading Matt

Volatility?

Volatility like this: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7SrPR03D/ ?

Or how about like this:




See, since I decided to actually learn and seek TA advice from people who actually know what the fuck they were talking about, playing this market is becoming increasingly easier, just as it is becoming increasingly easier to spot perpetrators of emotionally based opinion who align any TA they may produce with their personal fantasies of avarice and/or fear (the majority on here), with those who actually have an astute eye for the market (not so many on here, although they do exist).

With my mind set on being a trader of BTC, other than a hapless retard holder, I welcome volatility, but it just so happens, that I think the next major stint of volatility is going to be downside volatilty, just as I think that great big Fork Chart of yours is a croc of shit. I may be wrong, I may even change my mind on what BTC's next major move is. Note that I am currently long BTC, but have already took profits on 50% of my position, and missed on a rebuy lower down the chart by €0.19. For the time being however, whilst I realise that the markets can do anything they want, and that TA simply provides a means of identify probabilities of the future market course, market structure and mom indicators on the 1 day chart speaks for themselves, and they are telling me 'BIG FUCKING CORRECTION PENDING MOTHER FUCKER!'

Mate this is bitcoin get used to it. If you can't handle the volitility go and trade forex or something.

And when ING Bank started this thread, BTC was $460. From the top to present, BTC is down more than 10%. Whether you call that proof that he was right regarding 'trend reversal' or not depends on your time frame. I agree, that on a primary time frame, that Bitcoin is a bull, but Bitcoin could hit $300, and still be considered in a primary bull move. Fuck being on the wrong side of a $470 - $400 move (which we have already seen) and fuck being on the wrong end of a move down to $300. I don't know if BTC will correct that far down, but the $350-$370 area, is looking very likely.

btw...I doubt you are going to 'win friends and influence people' in the Bitcoin trading community with your 'Fork Analysis'.

I dont see much evidence of trend reversal. The price is $420 when only a couple of months ago it was half of that!

Why is your username ING bank ?

If you don't call a correction of over 10%, a substantial downside move then there is no helping you.

P.S. And there is a high probability of more brutal selling pressure to come, pending this consolidation period, which may or may not creep back up as high as $450. If it BTC gets as high as $450, then Pro Traders will start shorting the fuck out of it....that would be like a short RLZ, within a short RLZ of a higher timeframe, within yet another short RLZ of a yet higher timeframe, and then there is that great big fucking dirty bear M visible on 1 day and 4hr charts. $450 BTC would be such a no-brainer short opportunity, that it probs won't happen (although I hope it does!).

The trend reversal i progress is shaken out a lot of weak hands.
When we reach 400 USD, 99% will be out so we could focus on buying bitcoin again and enjoy a 500 usd price.

Correct on what, let's wait to the end of the week, I think it still has a chance of reaching $500. It will come back down after that of course. The weekends are always different. The drop will not continue on Monday and the price will be again around $450. After that I think there would be a quick spike coming that will take the price to $470-480 if not more.

LOL...

The OP was 100% correct, and he is still getting slated for posting a 100% proven correct call.

As for evidence....I have read all manner of utter fucking bullshit on this forum, about the CNY gaining ground against dollar, hence fall, people withdrawing funds for X-Mas, hence fall, there not being 'any reason at all' why Bitcoin should have went down, and therefore the fall was whale manipulation. The latter reason might be closer to the truth, but only if you also accept that there was no 'reason' for Bitcoin to rise up way past $400, except for whale manipulation.

A trader guy I subscribe to (https://twitter.com/CRInvestor), warned us about the BTC 3 Months Futures Contract Expiration on the 25th. He suggested that Bitcoin was being brought up high, and parked in a range up top, until the contract expiration date, after which we could expect a lot of selling pressure to ensue. (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13321768). Seems that he was 100% correct. So, there is your 'reason'.

Evidence is the price. Maybe now you can see this for yourself? It all started at December 20th. Not everyone is fast to catch on.

The reversal trend was reversed again.

But like KenR stead, don't let a minor up and down let you believe something is changed. This market is different then other markets and not in a good way.
There are some very active manipulators at work now.

For your information,we started out with $5 and today is $400+ what makes you even think its reversing.By the small ups and downs doesn't mean its not going to come up again.This is the part of the market ,get used to it.

Another waste of time thread. OK trend reversing. On what evidence. OP has nothing. NOTHING  

Anywhere near $500 and a lot will be profit taking

getting above $500 and maintaining that level is gonna be tough

Today it went back to $450, that's just the way bitcoin works. With ups and downs, you can't bring something up without it going down first.
I'm not buying nor selling right now, who knows if bitcoin will reach $500 these days to come.

Today we are at 24 and the trend is the same. Any kind of reversal was happen. Even we can tell that is stable. This kind of behavior of bitcoin is a new thing as for me. We are seeing a bitcoin much more calm than before. Every its move is made with calm and not like before with high up and downs in big amplitude. So when move, move in and with calm (when it goes down or when if goes high) and when stabilize go around a close level of value. It a sign of more maturity compared to before or an occasional behavior? Will see.

Why do you say this? Every man of bitcoin world hope that price will rise. Anyway, I see that trend is direct in positive verse, not reverse. In the first month of the next year I guess that will be a reverse trend, then, there will be a new rise

Well I was led to believe we were into a trend reversal too. But seeing the trend resevering on the last reserval makes me less sceptic.
I am not buying yet, but I have my sell orders in place for we will see a fast really to 500 USD again.

Definitely it will. There is however quite a lot of support between $350 and $400 and I expect the correction to stop there. There will be buying opportunities below $400, but one has to time it well in order to catch the train.

Yeah 'fluctuations' in price and nothing more.

Nothing more than $60-$80 less per BTC that is!

Don't buy BTC now, wait until sub $400 at least. It WILL get there.

Ugh, the technical analysis goes on...

It seems OP is chart watching and is focusing on the extremely short term.  And what do you glean from this?  These are fluctuations in the bitcoin price and nothing more.

I guess a trend of 10 dollar decreases looks terrible when you forget to put it next to the 100 dollar increase (or the 300 dollar increase)

True... I do hope it'll go back up before the year ends.

But don't worry Probably a bear trap anyway.

570 - 560 - 540 now being 535 is a trend reversal to be reckoned with. Remember where we came from (320 USD).
What goes up, must go down, and we should go down a lot. I don't expect a 320 price, but somewhere near 350 sounds likely to me.

Volume today 50M is less then yesterday, when it was 100M. Let's hope the price will get back on track.
For now it seems we are looking onto a decline.

"The trend is reversing" - on which time frame though?

that is exactly the point. Think about longer term and forget about this daily bumps. Bitcoin, as each young asset, has a lot of volatility to offer. That may be hard to digest, especially for the inexperienced traders (as myself). therefore I go more long term, and if go with the trend it is a way much easier game!

That's why hodling can be a good choice. If you're in for the long term forget about the swings our baby is having while growing and maturing.This is part of the process and always makes sure that only the strong one will stay, the real believer, a true user and participant.
I also think we are able to hold the 400, maybe for a short time we might go down below that, but really just very short.Halving is around the corner and I can not believe anybody risking to miss that train.

It is like it was going up, then down to a place higher than the previous down-trend, then up again.

Although this time it did not go as up as the one before.

I agree, the price has been rising all year and if you take a larger time frame we all know value rises every year since its creation. These fluctuations are expected, but if you ask me it will stay above $400 but as you said sub $400 is also possible, not a huge dip though.

Last chance to sell.

I think a large trader sold a good amount of coins to scare off weak hands and to trigger panic sellers. Right now the others are selling hoping to buy back lower. I think right now the panic is starting to take over some smaller traders. Bitfinex just touched $431.5.

TPTB is that you?

Sub $400 is possible, but it is just a short term blip. The price will rise in long term.

Might very well be people starting to ddos the exchanges to make the drop bigger and longer to make it look like a more real drop.

This way, by selling on one exchange, it looks like it happens across the board, but in reality, half of the exchanges are not functional.

'Smart Money' reload zone is down in the $360s m8.

Noobs will panic and dump it down to there.....sharks will be buying into dumps with both fists.

eh if the price drops below 400, i reckon alot of people will start dumping their coins and itll just decrease even faster.  cant imagine it going too low though,people who believe in btc would just buy more and more.

Thanks for the tip! Selling all my BTC now and never looking back. Good bye everyone on this form thanks for your help!

Nice for the price to drop to get a chance to scoop up some cheap bitcoins before the real rise

Yep,  for now sell and see if we can gain some momentum back in the 360-380 range.

1Hr EMAs confirm short term bear market:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mnWvCbSK/

and if that wasn't spooky enough, here is the 1 day chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a1W2Q8sn/

A bit down, a bit more up. A bit up, a bit more down.. this is normal things for bitcoin. I believe it will not going below 400 $. This is just a temporary, we will see price recovery for couple days or even faster. Just u people relax and don't freak out. Even if it falls below 400 it will be nice opportunity to maybe buy some btc while its cheap. For some traders this is good thing for sure, how can they earn if there isn't ups and downs, spikes and bubbles..
I was sure that price will not start to fall until new year, now I see i was wrong. Im still hoping that we will get in new year with 500 $ or more.

Yes looks like that.
But how much will we go down? And for how long?
Sub 400 and I will check for a bit more of accumulation.
A cheap coin is a good coin to go for.

how is long this long term? 5 10 years? because it seems that this word will always be used even in 10 years from now

we are already in long terms phase, this si just the beginning, i'm also in favor of any drop for correction purpose, since it permit the price to be more stable before the next rally

think you need to lay off the hopium tbh.

if you can't withstand a correction much deeper than $430, then my advice to you would be to cash out now, and buy back in down around sub $400 area.

I agree. there is a strong, previously resistance, now support cluster between $350 and $400 that should provide support on the eventual move down. It will look technically very good as well if this zone is once again tested and provides positive outcome.

Keep in mind:  corrections must be scary to shake out the weak hands.

I would not be surprised to see USD/BTC drop to the 390 range in the next 2-3 weeks.

Longer term, I am strongly bullish.

my guess is that it might fall back (if that's going to happen) to around $430-$440. not much lower than that. definitely not below $400. that would be a great moment for people to buy.

Fucking hell...

Kraken down as well.....

So both exchanges I operate on, go down right when Bitcoin is on the precipice of an obvious correction.......is this not the sort of stunts that Gox used to pull when it was trying to prevent the market from taking a course it didn't like?

Just as well I wasn't frantically trying to dump a load of BTC or take a short position, otherwise I might be rather agitated right now......

looks like it

Right this moment Huobi has confirmed bear market structure on shorter term time frames.....

....looks like BTC is likely to roll over, doubt the correction will go too deep though.... very strong support at $380, if it even gets that far down.

Edit: I have an account on Huobi and am having difficulty in getting access to it...but everytime the exchange starts working again, the price dumps, then the exchange ceases to function again.....flashing warning signs if ever I saw them.

Today on the 20th of December the trend is reversing.
The bitcoin price is coming back down from its $450-$500 peak.