Topic: Betcoin.eu - full automated lottery with 160% / 200% instant payout (Read 8724 times)

mem here again,

yep - the numbers can be pre-checked and the site op can easily insert a bet at the right time.

I saw a player(bot) wake up from a 16 hour sleep to place a single bet after I had a string of 10 losses.
The play did not come back online until another 10 hours later.

I have also had non payout issues and bets simply not being placed.

Unless the fairness issue is addressed I will not be shifting out of the scam list.

Hopefully I can sit down tonight and update my list, still catching up on all the backlog + I have started a new perl project on the side.

Figures that three days AFTER I found the site, it was added to the "Fraud/Unattended" category in mem's list.

r4in - look at his comments that mem made on June 23 in his gambling list thread.

I was playing on June 20th and the jackpot was at 35 bitcoins, which I calculated would mean ~154% expectation for BTC0.1 bets. I was actually considering playing until hitting the jackpot and sent three separate BTC0.1 bets in one transaction to make sure it could handle it the way Satoshi Dice can. Only one of the bets got booked the site kept the rest. Looks like that little amount may have saved me quite a bit of money.

Mem suspects there is a bot that checks the random number ahead of time and places the bet right when it needs to.

F that site.

BTW - the way I calculated expectation was ²/₅ x 1.6 + ⁴⁹/₅₀₀ x 2 + ¹/₅₀₀ x 350 = 153.6%

1 betting unit was 0.1 and the jackpot was ~35BTC so, 350 units in the last one there.

Does that calculation look about right to you?

Even now with the jackpot at only BTC13.9 the expectation should be 111%. I suspect that mem's theory of a bot playing and keeping the jackpot has merit.

Betcoin.eu ist mit most likely fraud.

I just conducted 112 games with a bet of 0.1 BTC each. I won 41 games. The likelihood, that the true win rate equals 50% is just 0,6%!

The calculation from my statistics tool:

Exact binomial test

data:  41 and 112
number of successes = 41, number of trials = 112, p-value = 0.00589
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.5
95 percent confidence interval:
 0.2770590 0.4623553
sample estimates:
probability of success  0.3660714

In plain english: The likelihood to win just 41 times out of 112 tries with a postulated win rate of 50% is just 0.00589 or 0,6%! By 99.4% the true likelihood is something completely different. I only observed a win rate of 37% instead of 50% with a very significant sample count.

-> Stay away, the indication of fraud is very strong in my opinion.

Does anyone have contact info for this site? I think it ate 0.2 of my bitcoins and I'd like to get it sorted out. I couldn't find anything in english on the site for how to get a hold of the operators.

"Da Man" has apparently not been active on the forums since last year.

Back from holidays.

I am glad anything is still working and want to send congratulations to the two jackpot winners this week!

Regards!

We will try a special with no fees and a 200% payout at the weekend. Please send me a PM with your currently used Bitcoin address.

As you know all numbers are generated and delivered by random.org.

It would be nice if we could see the personal total bets...
I've bet all my (4.6~ BTC) on your game, lost all in the end, and I think I've won 44% of the bets.
I'm mildly unlucky? Yeah. With the 160% and very difficulty JP, It's a secure loss for me
0,2% chance of win JP.
my 184 bet = 36% chance of won...

Thanks a lot

I checked the database and saw you played 80 rounds. At 50% you should have won 40 games, but at the moment you won 34. You have to win just 6 games more to be even, I think thats in normal range.

I think so, the complete all-played-games-percentage is 47,68 % at the moment. I checked the connection to random.org, but there are no problems.

I've done a lot of bet... And I have an high % of losses... Very unlucky?

Just bet 0.1 and won 0.16, I like how it instantly sent me my winnings.  I think I better quit while I'm ahead 

It's a company server, I have no direct costs for the server. It will be running anyway.

5% seems more than fair to me, does it even cover your costs?

So tell me what you would like to change and how the bank balance could be increased to cover more and higher bets?

What I am saying is that the money "in the Bank" is your money as well. Your profit, or more exactly your expected profit remains the same and is above 5%.

Sorry, i don't understand what you mean. I don't Charge doubble! I Charge 5% (0.005 btc) of every 0,1 btc Bet. Everything Else remains in the game and is Used to cover payouts. It would Be Great if the Bank would have more money, but its running 3-4 Weeks now and there is no noteable increase of the banks balance. At the Moment it decreases. Or did i missunderstand you?

Sorry for upper/lowercase, i am typing on the mobile.

So yeah you still charge "double" for the game. Firstly a fixed 5% fee that then make your win loss calculations look better and then you have the advantage that 80% of win's you only pay out 160%. You basically make this calculation make you look much worse off than you are. Yes the advantage after the 5% (on every bet) is small, but it still exists.

Yes with variance comes always the risk that the operator looses short term, otherwise there would be no incentive for the player to gamble as he is always in the disadvantage. If you move the 5% out of the pool its easier for you to go below your safe treshold of -2 BTC, which in my eyes is way to low. You should have at least 5x the max payout available to cover variance. But in long term every % of house edge will make you the winner.

The JP is essential and the only reason it's worth playing. But it's not like you pay for it out of your pocket.

I'm finding your payouts to be quite interesting. I have a feeling though that more will play more often even if it's at the expense of a bigger jackpot. You'll have more winners but smaller jackpots. More will be winners but the jackpot winner won't win as much. I guess you find the balance where more are playing to optimize your business.

I wish the odds where a little better, too. But let me explain why there is not much room for the game.

Reason 1: 10% of every bet >= 0.1 btc will be moved to to jackpot
Reason 2: 5% of every bet will be moved to the system fee account
Reason 3: 50% winning chance

So if you play with 0.1 btc that means that 0.085 btc will remain on the bank account and will be used for regular gameplay.

Now we play 500 rounds. The complete deposit is 500 x 0.1 btc = 50 btc -> net 42,5 btc

We have a 50% winning chance, so 250 rounds will statistically win. We have two winning classes with 160% and 200% (even numbers greater than 400).

So 200 games will win 160% and 50 games will win 200% ->

200 x 0.16 btc = 32 btc
50 x 0.2 btc = 10 btc

Total payout: 32 btc + 10 btc + (Transfer Fee for wins) about 0.125 btc = 42.125 btc Payout


Lets have a look at the bank with 42.5 btc deposits and subtract 42.125 btc payouts. Result -> Bank + 0,375 btc.

As you see the bank remains balanced and makes a slight plus of 0.375 btc. Thats not much! If someone bet 1 btc and wins the bank makes a clear minus and we can hope that another one plays with 1 btc and loses to compensate for the loss.

If the bank falls below a certain amount there will be a warning message not to play with larger amounts than 0.1 btc. If the bank falls to 2 btc the site closes automatically and no further bets are possible.

Now remember the weekend special with 200% payout for every even number, started friday afternoon a week ago! I knew that this system could not work, but some people asked me to give it a try. So I did. The result was that I have to end the weekend special after 12 hours. The bank was broken. I changed it to 200% for every even number greater than 400. Thats what we have now.

So what could be done to increase the payout percentage?

1. We can play without a jackpot. But right no I see that noone is playing because of a missing jackpot.
2. We can play without a system fee. No, we don't really like that, right? :-)

That's all we can do.

But there is one thing more: we can reduce the 50% winning chance. Let calculate it:

40% winning chance -> every even number >100 wins -> Payout 180% and 220% = bank plus 4,4 btc
30% winning chance -> every even number >200 wins -> Payout 200% and 300% = bank plus 7,425 btc

In this scenario we can use the bank plus to increase the jackpot, but we will need a bigger bank to cover possible winnings.

But note: higher payout means the player will loose more often and need more luck to win.

So what do you think?

Regards!

I like the ideas bitlotto posted, but they might not work in the large scale.

Personally I have made ~400 bets in the last 5 days from 0.1 to 1 BTC. I have won some of my 1 BTC bets but also lost several (one with an insulting 499). Somehow it would be nice to have the winning number displayed nicely - but his page paying out directly so I often know before checking the page if I have won. Adding a further page for me to visit makes it even slower.

I think the odds should be a bit better. On a win you usually only get 160%, so that leaves you with 40% less than you would need to break even. If you roll above 400 and even you will get 200% so you break even. It appears that 10% of every bet (win or loose) goes to the Jackpot, sometimes it is 20%? I don't know where the 5% fee comes in place here.

Generally speaking I wish the odds where a bit better. For example by raising the 400+ payout to 300%.

The statistics page is good, actually I usually use that to check my results as its nice in one large list.


edit: did only about 400 bets not 700...

game is so addciting lol i made 2 small bets and 1 big and won it almost doubled the coins i had for today.

First off, I really like your lottery! I even tried for a while to win the jackpot! But lost, dang it!

I was thinking of your site today after that post and it got me thinking. You could change a few things. It would still be simple, yet eliminate any question of cheating. It would also make it more fun!!

Here's what I'd do:
-don't change the send to address / payment address part. It's very simple and elegant! BUT, when you ask if the address is yours just say "1KLk...aPw" with a good portion missing.
-when they first register they are given a link. This link would be betcoin.eu/(theirpaymentaddress) and they are told to remember it or how to figure out what it is if they lose it. If someone figures someones out, it not a huge deal since all they can do is make their picks and NOT change where its going
-that page will be their pick a number page. It would be like your incoming payment tx pages but it would be a list with all the transactions for the sending address.
-once a payment is verified a link will appear letting the person make a pick. When they click it it opens a new page.
-now they are on a page where they pick a number 1-500. You could make it look all cool with graphics or having a 3-digit wheel they spin to select or something. Underneath is a hash. This is the hash of a list of 1-500 listing what each number is. 1.2x, 2x, lose, and one with the jackpot. They then pick a number and click submit. It then loads a page showing the data with random data as well and the same hash of all the data. Then they click next and it goes back to the "pick a number page".
-they get to pick for each payment

Main advantages:
-MORE FUN as the user feels like they are more in control of the outcome
-impossible for people to accuse you of cheating
-dealing with the randomness is more simple because people are actually determining the outcome and not a random number
-MORE FUN!

You could even have it where no selection after 2 hours or something will have one picked for them.

I REALLY hope you do something similar. I just kind of hope you don't as I may get addicted to your game! 

Yea all the games are a game of risk after playing alot of them i find that all of them are legit it seems but your chances of winning alot are low unless you get real lucky.  Like i turned 0.80 into 6 coins on one site but then every time i played after that i lost lol.

I played alot befor but i stoped because it seemed more bets i sent more i lost one time i sent like 20 and lost 18 of them im not saying game is a scam its all chance like all the gambing sites.

As I answered in his thread:

I'm tired of justifying myself always. Maybe my betcoin.eu is just an example. If you think you can't win, don't play it. The people who are playing it have a fair chance to win. There is a real 50% winning chance. The calculated chance including all played games is 48,31% at the moment. It was over 51% and it was below 48% in the last days.

There are many people who won and there are many people who lost. Its a pitty that only the people who lost are posting. There are some winners who post and told me they like the game very much.

That's all from my side, the rest can be read in the other thread in detail. I published all deposits and all payouts and everyone can see whats going on. I published my 5% cut profit, which is more than my mining rig ever produced per day, and everone can see all statistics and all played games. Tahe next update will include the hash function, at the moment I use random.org. But to be honest I have more fun on developing my roulette table at the moment. It's a hobby, not more.

And one thing more: everyone who played my game many times should see that there is a real 50% (+/- 5%) chance to win. Everyone can test the game with 0.01 btc to see if it work for him and makes fun. If you need quotes of long time players, look at the statistics.

Regards.

You should probably see:
https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=27880
He is pretty much saying that your type of lottery is a potential scam. Could be a bitter loser! If you want, PM me and I'll help come up with a hash method that may stop this kind of stuff.

Jackpot update: 17.4787 btc

http://betcoin.eu

I know, but it's hard to increase the jackpot after it was won.

This isn't bad, but the only thing that really makes it a plus is the jackpot.

current jackpot: 2.7016 btc

http://betcoin.eu

I'm in for 0.15 to give it a try

Current Payouts:

Every even number: 160%

Every even number greater than 400: 200%


+ Winning chance: 50%
+ instant payout!

http://betcoin.eu

We are now using the Random.org Number Client by Jonathon Reinhart to generate the rolling number.

http://software.onthefive.com/RandDotOrg/

Hey, yea the last one took awhile to process, its there now. Thanks!  and i was referring to the 3% chance that I would lose 5 in a row haha, o wells, fun game. The last one was 499 too.. so close

Hi,

the server can handle much more requests, proofed 2 hours ago. But not all transactions were confirmed at the same time.

All of you five transactions were processed and all five are in the statistics overview.

It is a pity that you have lost. but it is statistically quite possible. If you have lost a previous game, that does not increase your chance of winning next time. Each round has the same chance.

Kind regards!

Hey, i think your server can't handle all the requests.  I just sent in 5 transactions of .10 BTC and only 4 got ran through the game. The last one disappeared.  (all 4 were losses how statistically improbable) 

http://gyazo.com/8fafdfdf965f11d1430461ebea806660.png

My username in the game is MasonIII, you can see that only 4 showed up in the past hour out of the 5 i sent in, the others were from yesterday.

Damn, I hope the Bitcoin Server can handle so many requests. The gaming and database server has no problem right now, the cpu runs at 20%.

I am asking myself if the people play because of the jackpot or the 200% payout?

Whoa, sooo close!

01. Jul 2011 21:43:51   HUmpfry   0.1   499   

I'm definitely getting value for money :-)
Invested 10 x .1 bets, and keep re-investing any winnings till I either win the jackpot, or all bets lose.

@m4dhatter:

Roll a 111, 222, 333, 444 and I will send you 1 Bitcoin!

This offer lasts for 10 rounds ^^

All sorted. Thanks for the quick response. Come on 500!

Your transaction arrived already and is shown in the list.

Good Luck!

Yea, it never appeared in the waiting list. I just registered this name and have only used it this one time so we should be good on that front.

Hi,

your bet should be in the »Waiting for payment confirmations« list like all the others. I will have a look in the database. Please note that the system will use your previous players name if you use the same bitcoin address.

I'll keep you informed. Hold the line ...

UPDATE:

Your registration is correct. But the bitcoin server did not receive your payment. There are two possible reasons:

1. Did you use the shown payment address? The one in the green box?
2. Does your client download the complete blockchain? If not, some transactions will be shown as »offline« if you click the bitcoin clients labels -> »Send/Receive« and back to »All Transactions«. If so, please restart your client.

If anything else went wrong, please post a screenshot of your client with the transaction in the »Project Development« thread:  http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=22747

Kind Regards!

I know the payment has to be confirmed before the site rolls for you, but wont my bet show up in the stats before the payment is confirmed.

I made a bet of .15 but nothing ever showed up on your site. The name is madhatter.

WEEKEND SPECIAL: 200% PAYOUT

every even number wins!

Current Jackpot: 10.2211 Bitcoins!

http://betcoin.eu

Jackpot: 9.2151 BTC

 -> give it a try!

http://betcoin.eu

Jackpot: 8.1311 BTC

 -> give it a try!

0.01 minimum bet for testing available.

http://betcoin.eu

Implemented: excessive high bets will be refunded.

Current Jackpot: 6.9065 Bitcoins

New Jackpot:

6.2335 BTC

Thank you. Use lower playing values next time Congrats!

Just won a cool 1.5btc off this. Great setup, man.

New Jackpot: 5.2627 Btc

Many thanks to BillyBob (yesterdays Jackpot winner, 10,48 btc)!

He donated 2.7 Btc to the Jackpot!!!

It will be added as soon as the transaction is confirmed.

That name is easily confused with Betco.in (aka Betcoin), the Texas Hold 'Em site.

BTW, that is an absolutely massive house edge you've got there!


Chance of winning: 50%
Chance of losing: 50%
Payout for winning: 150%

Chance of winning	x Payout	- Chance of losing	= Expected Value
50%	x 150%	- 50%	= 70%

...or in other words, a house edge of 30%.

Hello!

****************
Please note: This thread is a continuation of the former Bitcoin Lottery thread. The name was not really appropriate and I would like to phase out the other thread now and do it all here.

****************

Thank you for all the good ideas and PM's! I have implemented most of the ideas and I hope it is even better, fairer and a little nicer to have! Incidentally, the name was changed because "lottery" was not quite fit.

Current state of affairs:

New URL: http://betcoin.eu

Chance of winning: 50%
Payout Class 1: 160%
Payout Class 2: 200%
Rolling Range: 1-500 (1-499 in the mini-test mode at 0.01 btc bets)

Every even number wins , every odd number loses.

New Jackpot Payout: 99% (previously 90%, the missing percentage is used to calculate the Transaction Fee. I think it will be lower than 1%, but it's better to be safe and the transctions went through.)

This thread will be used for player feedback and update informations.

Greetings!