Topic: betting on a favorite, high p-spread or low p-spread? (Read 151 times)

I won't blame a gambler like that. It's all about the risk and that is why they are willing to overlook the ATS record.

I went through the link you sent for analyzing games. No doubt it might be helpful. I have made some handful of picks through there let me see how it goes and I will give you feedback on my observation.

From my experience, it really depends on the teams and the specific game context. For lower point spreads, like -3.5, I feel more confident betting on the favorite, especially when they're a solid, consistent team but facing a competitive opponent. Games with tighter spreads tend to be less risky since they're typically more balanced.

For higher spreads, like -10.5, I’ve found them to be more hit-or-miss. While it can be profitable when the favorite is a powerhouse and the underdog is clearly outmatched, there's always a risk of a late-game slowdown where the winning team takes their foot off the gas, making it harder to cover that larger spread. In my experience, higher spreads have been less reliable, but when they hit, they can be pretty rewarding.

I haven't seen any specific stats on whether low or high spreads are generally more profitable, but personally, I've had more consistent wins with low spreads.

Obviously high spread if we talk about confidence rate on bet since it has more room for error on prediction compared low spread. I believe will be more confident on low spread compared to high spread if odds is just same.

Gamblers just use low spread because of high odds typically score on this type of bet which is better alternative to match winner if you are not confident enough that your team will win the game.

I personally like this kind of asian handicap bet because it’s less risky while the odds is still good compared to betting on ML match that one of the team is dominant.

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Then you really have to look at the teams first, and so for me, there is no right or wrong answer here. Still base on your analysis of the game itself, maybe the first game, teams are really close in the standing, that's why the spread is just +/-3.5.

As compare to the second game, maybe the -10.5 is obviously top tier teams, maybe on top of the standings, while the opponent is in the cellar, and could be in the losing streak that's why sport bookies make it that way.

The second game looks like it is telling us that Team A is strong for getting the -10.5 handicap and the First game looks like will be a close fight. It's hard to tell which might win if we don't have the knowledge about them but for the sake of answering the question, I am picking Team B for the first game and might even risk it for the money line to increase the profits and Team A for the second game.

A -10.5 handicap is something that will not just be input that easily if few people believe that the team is strong. Although there are times I go against it because I believe an upset could happen I will need to make sure so I take the +10.5 or maybe lower like +7 only to have a better-winning amount. I will not go beyond taking the Moneyline though with that kind of difference, it's too risky, I rarely do that.

I usually go for low-spread bets for the most part, unless I know a team is just underperforming due to some reason or I'm a fan favorite. In this case where all I'm relying on are the point spreads then I'd 100% go for it, not that if it ever happened I'd try to lol. Sounds kind of dumb to decide on a bet when there are a LOT of factors involved that are missing.

A high spread would probably be a choice IF there's a large enough gap to justify it. It usually comes down to team/player performance (especially during the late stages), which can be hard to predict even if you consider the teams habits and the like.

Can I just not choose no option?
I would NEVER choose an outcome of a game just looking the odds. Yes odds are really useful and can give the perception for an estimation.
But that's all! This way can lead to mistakes. I would never trust too much this number and I don't think this can be the basis for any plan.

Even statistics will not help anyone decide whether betting on a low spread or a high spread is more profitable because it all depends on the ability of the gambler to accurately predict how close or tight two teams can be under one match.

There are certain factors to consider when you are betting on these matches. One being the nature of the match. Could it be a very important match that the players would have the “go big or go home” kind of mindset? Usually matches of great significance tend to have a tighter spread.

Personally low spread is easier to predict accurately since if you were to go on to high spread, you would have to predict that a team dominates the match.

This is what some gamblers overlook--they focus only on the spread, comparing the low to the high, and of course, they’re more attracted to the low spread since it seems easier to hit (in their minds). But without checking the ATS (Against The Spread) record, they won’t be able to make a realistic spread handicap analysis.

One of the websites I use for analyzing games is https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trends/ats_trends/. I linked the NBA section so everyone can check it out, especially since the OP’s example is about basketball. There’s a ton of information on that site, just explore the drop-downs and you’ll find the data you need. In sports betting, you win by analyzing the data, at least that should be your first priority.

No, odds aren’t measured like that; they’re based on what the bookies offer.

For example, if you have -7.5 at 1.90 odds, and you bump it up to -8.5, the odds go up to 2.00. So, the odds rise when you stretch the point spread from the original offer. In my opinion, about the question, I think those bigger spreads that scare most public bettors tend to hit more often. That’s just from my experience. As a human, I find -3.5 appealing, but as a gambler, my instinct tells me to go for higher odds, like -10.5 or more, since I’ve usually had good outcomes with those bets.

That's a great question! Based on my experience in basketball betting That actually greatly depends on the situation surrounding the game. When I bet on favorites, the more I have confidence when spread is lower, even for those -3.5 examples you gave regarding Team A and Team B. A tight spread usually means that it's going to be close game. And if I am sure that The favorite will cover also I mean it is more than a sure thing, and of course, that two teams fight each other when they are in a pretty good form. Such games less risky. And my win percentage is higher with low-spread games. Especially with playing against the freshest team that are in the shape and know what to do.

On the other side of the coin, large spreads like -10.5 are a real pain in the neck. Of course, the opportunity to catch a nice windfall doesn't miss occurring frequently. Still, so many things can happen. Like an injury to a key player, watching your beloved characters flail the last hour. Or worse, garbage from the underdog. I haven't had much success going that way. Sometimes the favorite wins easily, but doesn't cover the spread because it gets easy in the fourth quarter. That aside, I also found a few cases where the favorite is just too dominating. That makes greater spreads impossible.

For loss I think I get more stable returns with lower spreads. Especially when I could take advantage of my beloved matchup with a clear but victorious advantage. This rate hasn't appeared significant. in my opinion Larger spreads tend to be more dangerous. But if you can accurately estimate when a team can attack their opponent, They'll be effective too.


What a wonderful way! The live games are indeed much more thrilling when one bets on them. It also tends to open many opportunities for better pairings as well. Especially when a powerful team falls behind early in the game. - - - For me, personally, it is extremely helpful in live betting to read up on the strengths of a game before placing a bet. as you said If the favorite is behind in the first three years of a game It is a fantastic chance to exploit the spread set for betting.

For me I always avoid the circumstances where the underdog leads the game momentarily. Because of the hot shot in the morning or because of a great beginning. If I feel that the right team could pull back the lead. I will bet on the division that agrees based on the timing of the odds. Very well done, especially with a strong fourth-year team involved. But timing is everything. And being patient until the right time is the key. Are you looking for matchups where this strategy works the best-such as teams that have a history of slow starts but end strong-or are you using more of this just based on gameplay? Want to know more about how to decide when to join?

High spread means lower odds and vice versa. The question is about profitable then both can be profitable because you can adjust your bet size depending on the odds that you preferred.

Personally I will choose higher spread to have a better life line in case shit happened. I bet on live games whenever I’m betting spread and wait for the better team to get behind score on early quarter to make the odds better for a spread bet on them.

This is proven profitable for me because there’s a high chance for a game recovery when a top team get behind early when they already have the momentum in the late game.

Depending on the team's ATS record i'd easily take Team B on the second game if Team A tends to dominate their matches, and then throws away their big leads in garbage time.

On the first game, i'd instantly lock Team A with their low handicap. From what I recall last regular season, home teams rarely had low handicaps and road favorites struggled more than expected.

They could still open at those numbers and then it'll quickly move by 4 to 6 points within a few hours so you're always left with handicaps reaching double digits if you don't lock in your bets right away.

Which one do you feel more confident betting on, and maybe you could share which has been more profitable for you?

For example, you’re betting on a favorite:

First Game: TEAM A -3.5 vs TEAM B +3.5
Second Game: TEAM B -10.5 vs TEAM B +10.5

I’m not sure if there’s a stat showing whether betting on a low spread or high spread is more profitable, so I’m asking you. Could you share your thoughts based on your experience? This is specifically for basketball betting.