Topic: Betting on euro collapse through a mortgage? (Read 1021 times)
another way to frame the scenario: pay now in Bitcoins or USD or take a Euro loan?
Spain used to have Pesetas, not Pesos.
Yes, but it's very stupid.
Even if the Euro failes it is very likely to make a huge loss due to goverment regulations. After the german hyperinflation dept and savings got different exchange rates. There also might be a new tax on property and there is no way homes keep their value.
Since you probably loose your job and savings there is no way you could pay tax, loan and food and loose everything. Even if you had enough cash to pay for the loan it would be cheaper to buy homes at market price instead paying off the higher mortage.
Even if the Euro failes it is very likely to make a huge loss due to goverment regulations. After the german hyperinflation dept and savings got different exchange rates. There also might be a new tax on property and there is no way homes keep their value.
Since you probably loose your job and savings there is no way you could pay tax, loan and food and loose everything. Even if you had enough cash to pay for the loan it would be cheaper to buy homes at market price instead paying off the higher mortage.
Let's say you buy a property in Spain. You can have it denominated in £ or €. Let's say we go for Euros. Then Spain goes back to pesos.
Most likely the mortgage gets converted to pesos and then the peso devalues so you're in profit... but that's not the only scenario.
The banks aren't going to be happy with switching to pesos? What if the mortgage could stay in Euros and then your asset is going to devalue massively. It seems less likely but is it possible? Looking at history you might think no but those examples are different in that this time we have the eurozone and a group of countries - is there an analog in history... US states or anything like that?
If one believes in a switch to peso then perhaps it's better to wait for that switch and devaluation first. Or perhaps not - perhaps in a situation like that trade with things like offshore accounts or Bitcoin would now be under massive attack by governments... and might not be an option because everything is such a mess.
Is it possible to use a mortgage to make a bet on this?
Most likely the mortgage gets converted to pesos and then the peso devalues so you're in profit... but that's not the only scenario.
The banks aren't going to be happy with switching to pesos? What if the mortgage could stay in Euros and then your asset is going to devalue massively. It seems less likely but is it possible? Looking at history you might think no but those examples are different in that this time we have the eurozone and a group of countries - is there an analog in history... US states or anything like that?
If one believes in a switch to peso then perhaps it's better to wait for that switch and devaluation first. Or perhaps not - perhaps in a situation like that trade with things like offshore accounts or Bitcoin would now be under massive attack by governments... and might not be an option because everything is such a mess.
Is it possible to use a mortgage to make a bet on this?
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