Betting on favorites. not always effective

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Quote from: stadus on February 09, 2025, 11:18:31 PM

You win some, you lose some, that's how it goes.

I'm not a big fan of NFL, but there's a common saying in sports betting: bet against the public. The public usually goes for the favorites, which often ends up costing them. So if the data shared earlier reflects the true winning rate on ATS this season, betting on favorites all the time might not lead to losses. Of course, no one bets that way since we’re selective with our picks, and sometimes even our best choices lose. It really all comes down to how good we are at choosing the right side.

Lately I have been seeing some predictions on NFL but I don't copy the bets because I'm still trying to know my way around it...I don't always rely on others for knowledge, instead I make research and try to come up with my own strategies... just like you said betting against the public might be profitable, although the chances of winning are slim but it's all a risky gamble, luck can come at any time..It reminds me of Liverpool's recent match, everyone's idea was that Liverpool was going to win scoring over 2.5 goals..But the opposite happened, they lost without scoring even a single goal.. Those that decided to bet against the public really got lucky that faithful day.

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Quote from: sompitonov on Today at 02:11:28 PM

I don't know much about the NFL, but I can answer the last question because I sometimes bet on other sports that I like on people who are not favorites. I just knew a lot about hockey teams, so before the championship I looked at the rosters and knew that some of the favorites were in terrible shape, and I bet on a weaker team that was playing against them. I don't know if it's a coincidence, but I managed to win quite a few games this way, but then those teams were eliminated from the championship and I didn't bet anymore. I hope I managed to explain and you understood that I looked at how weak the favorites were in terms of rosters and the odds seemed very good to me.

You had a good and interesting experience, but what prevents you from continuing to use your strategy further, or are these teams no longer in these championships?

In general, there is no single recipe, strategy for winning, at least I do not know this and you were probably just lucky, because in your case there was not a sufficient sample, and everything was limited to only one championship, although I am glad that you managed to win in a short period. But in general, betting on favorites or not is not very important, because each individual game must be examined under a microscope, and sometimes find excellent odds in which the favorite is weak, and his opponent has excellent chances. In general, not everything is so clear.

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Quote from: Davidvictorson on Today at 12:32:23 PM

Quote from: Oshosondy on Today at 04:47:38 AM

People will prefer to bet on the teams they think would win. That is how betting is. If you bet otherwise, you will lose more money. The odds are set not to favour bettors.

It was just some few days ago we discussed about betting on underdogs. I remember the opinions on people when they wrote that it wasn't a good decision to make bets on underdogs. Some of you aren't betting on the underdogs, it means you're betting on the favorites then. Well, the OP is another reason see that it is not about the underdogs or the favorites. It is this simple as you have said - bet on the team that you think will win and not on the underdogs or favourites.

I don't know about this particular sport OP is addressing but taking my instance as a football sports bettor, i don't mind betting on the underdogs assumed in a particular case, some causes that might affect the performance of the favorite team, moreover you don't expect the small club to lose at all times, we can see that even from the Premier League, clubs like Bournemouth and rest are yet capable of defeating Liverpool, wins from the underdogs are full of surprises sometimes there are gamblers whom are conversant in taking much risk fewer times they get the best outcome.

Sometimes you don't need to pick who wins or not, just play safe by experiencing different booking options, platforms has made it a lot better for many options when you not sure of direct victories.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on Today at 12:42:15 PM

Approaching a game from neutral perspective will give us the best assesment of the team that's likely going to win but we have to think practical too, people bet on the sports which they love and when they do they have favourites too. So when their favourite team is playing they will be always tempted to bet on them which may lead to loss. There's gamblers approach of a bet and there's fanatic way of approaching a game, the later is always the best.

The effectiveness of our sports is simple, we should never underestimate the oppositions because in sport, alot of impossible outcome is actually been triggered. I've encounter quite extreme roles that are ruined by our ignorance, who wouldn't want to be stuck in profits? Everyone wished to be eating really good from the system.

There's this scenario we should tend to understand, there's always something to follow whenever our mind is been made to gamble. I know it's never consider an easy thing but the best is yet to come. Losses and winnings are all acceptable because it all originates from the pattern we execute. This betting is dangerous but not for those category of people that are absolutely applying precaution and measures to step up in profits. It's usually consider difficult but once there's enough dashing techniques, winnings do come forward.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

Gambling is the riskiest game where you have to take the most risks. And in this gambling game, no one can say with 100% certainty that my favorite team will win. Sometimes it is seen that favorite teams perform the worst and bad teams perform well and win. So there is no correct analysis of who will win and who will lose in a risky game, and it is not that our confident team will win. So it is not right to always bet with confidence on gambling platforms because confidence never helps in winning bets.

But I have never bet on such games. I have always bet on football and cricket matches where I can do some analysis. And those who have bet on these games probably took their maximum risk and bet on the underdog because they thought the game might have a chance for the underdog.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

I don't know much about the NFL, but I can answer the last question because I sometimes bet on other sports that I like on people who are not favorites. I just knew a lot about hockey teams, so before the championship I looked at the rosters and knew that some of the favorites were in terrible shape, and I bet on a weaker team that was playing against them. I don't know if it's a coincidence, but I managed to win quite a few games this way, but then those teams were eliminated from the championship and I didn't bet anymore. I hope I managed to explain and you understood that I looked at how weak the favorites were in terms of rosters and the odds seemed very good to me.

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Based on the analysis, the Eagles are doing best right now compared to the Chiefs, so if Chiefs is your favorite, then for me, I'm against it without analyzing how the team plays.
Even though they are two time defending champions, I see that the Eagles have a higher chance to win based on their game plays.
I don't know how you analyze these two teams; having a favorite doesn't mean you will always win, but if you do have some analysis, you should be able to know if the Eagles have a chance to win. That is why analysis remains the best thing you can do before betting because it allows you to learn more about the team and determine whether the opposing team has a chance to win the game.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

There will always be failures in favorites especially in sports like NFL, tennis and basketball being the sports with most failures when betting on favorites. I would say that this is not going to change as I have experienced first hand losing in basketball when the leader with odds 1.04 lost to the last place, we need to be able to choose a good team which this is also difficult. Sometimes when betting on non favorites I imagine that people see the h2h results and bet on a team who has valid good results, meaning they are in good form and have won most of their recent games.

Or lets just say that everything in sports on having that underdog wins or simply talking about upsets on which this could really that indeed happen. If favorites betting does have that bigger chance of winning then people will really be just that simply betting on it all the way but we do know that betting on sports doesnt really works on that way because there's no way that you can be able to make profits if you do just simply betting on favorites on which we know that winning percentage isnt known but if it turned out that it is really that giving out some good results into you then go ahead but honestly betting up on sports that you dont even know doesnt really give out any entertainment and really just that shows that you are really just that playing for the sake of money and not for fun and this is something which isnt really that recommended. You would be able to find out sooner or later that sticking with favorites doesnt really give out any assurance that you can be able to make profits with it and its not something enjoyable if you will be having this kind of approach.

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Betting on both favorites and underdogs, we've got threads in here now and those are good discussions out there. So, as a bettor, we should analyze each of the bets we make because both can be profitable in our own methods but sometimes there really are times that they are not. It only means that we have to take our chances for both of them and learn something for every bet that we make because it won't be the same for most of us.

Quote from: Findingnemo on Today at 12:42:15 PM

There's gamblers approach of a bet and there's fanatic way of approaching a game, the later is always the best.

That's right, a fanatic way is betting no matter what the odds are as long as you bet for them.

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Approaching a game from neutral perspective will give us the best assesment of the team that's likely going to win but we have to think practical too, people bet on the sports which they love and when they do they have favourites too. So when their favourite team is playing they will be always tempted to bet on them which may lead to loss. There's gamblers approach of a bet and there's fanatic way of approaching a game, the later is always the best.

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Quote from: mirakal on Today at 03:56:30 AM

Odds are somewhat tricky, and there is no assurance. Because if all the favorite teams win, nobody will choose to bet on the underdog. But the real situation says that both the underdog and favorite have the chance to win.

It is just the same in other sports. Odds couldn't say who is going to win until the game ends. That is why I don't rely on odds but rather check their performance.

And it tells us that winning in gambling is not because we choose the right team but just luck. That is how gambling works.

I read a study that showed that in modern conditions bookmakers guess the outcome with an accuracy of up to 1%. The problem is that this is for a huge number of games and not for a separate unique game that cannot end with the result "team A won 40%, and team B won 60%" since there can only be one outcome. It is pointless to draw conclusions based on the outcome of one game; we need to take into account a much larger number of results.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

You don't have to bet on your favourite if you are not so sure that they will win the match, choosing favourite over winning mean you don't gamble to make money, something that fits someone who is just gambling for fun, for those gamblers who are hellbent on making money only they will gladly bet on the most hated side if they are sure that the side will win, and this my friend is what gambling is all about.

The choice is yours, do it for favourite/fan base or do it to make money, in the end this won't determine if you will win or not, we all win and lose at some point, get used to it.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on Today at 04:47:38 AM

People will prefer to bet on the teams they think would win. That is how betting is. If you bet otherwise, you will lose more money. The odds are set not to favour bettors.

It was just some few days ago we discussed about betting on underdogs. I remember the opinions on people when they wrote that it wasn't a good decision to make bets on underdogs. Some of you aren't betting on the underdogs, it means you're betting on the favorites then. Well, the OP is another reason see that it is not about the underdogs or the favorites. It is this simple as you have said - bet on the team that you think will win and not on the underdogs or favourites.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

It is hard to get into what's actually profitable because this is sports and games are sometimes both predictable and unpredictable.

That's why if there are some underdogs that could make a twist and turn into the event of the game. There are those that are expected to get with the results as follows from what has been predicted.

But most likely, these favorites have the bigger chance of winning and the bookies know that. As said, not all the time they are correct.

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Basically, betting on a non-seeded team gives the hope of getting a big win. But, at the same time, of course, a gambler needs great courage to choose a non-seeded team. Because after all, even though the bettor does an analysis in such a way and also, sometimes instinct says to choose a non-seeded team, but if the bettor does not have the courage to do so then in the end the bettor will still choose the seeded team, or skip the bet.

Thus, to be in the minority in such cases is certainly difficult if you do not have the courage to go against the trend, and even if the bettor insists on choosing the non-seeded team, then it is also possible that the bet is low amount. After all, in soccer such results often occur but still, it is very rare to really focus on picking non-seeded teams. Although indeed, continuing to choose seeded teams also does not always provide victory, but that's what gambling is like, no one can really guarantee to provide consistent wins for the long term.

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Quote from: mak013 on Today at 06:02:42 AM

I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy[...]

I mean, I do care but, I kinda like find it really fascinating to see a huge fan base debating on what and what not to bet on... TBH, I really had to look up for the difference between NFL and rugby as a sport... I suck in sports aside football.
How does your strategies work/ affect the outcome of the games in your favour if I may ask? Lol

Quote from: Mia Chloe on Today at 11:02:53 AM

Stats actually don't lie but for the case of gambling they can fail too.

I love how the system is run; not essentially by whatever stat was recorded in the previous games, but by how motivated the players are to win.
I can't just get my mind off the fact that most people would stake everything in them, on a team (Which I assume would be their favorite) over a team that's obviously going to win.

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Gamblers bet on underdogs because the odds are attractive. It looks obvious to bet on the favorite for some, but fact is that it's unprofitable to bet solely on favorites, because they also lose, and their odds are bad for gamblers. The most important thing is to identify when to not go for the favorite.

That is, when the underdog has realistic chances of winning, despite the bookmakers not giving them too much credit. When it happens, gamblers take advantage of the high odds and go for it.

However, there isn't a magical formula. Risks are always present, and gamblers still hope to be lucky, while trying to improve their intuitive skills at its maximum.

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I don't bet on super brawl but looking at the stats and odds, there's no much difference between the two teams. Instead of calling the eagles an underdog, I'd say it's a fierce rival that won the game. If you want to talk of an underdog, talk about the game between Plymouth and Liverpool. Where Plymouth was given 14.70 odd, and they went ahead to beat liverpool with 1.18 odd. Like I did said in the other thread, betting on underdogs is risky but it could be worth taking some times.

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Quote from: mak013 on Today at 06:02:42 AM

I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy, i research event before betting, i watch odds. If everything is ok - i bet and it doesn`t matter who is favorite.
PS. And i try to avoid cup games - it can surprise. Right like in your example.

Basically everyone has their methods and resolve when it comes to gambling. Because gambling is based solely on luck some persons actually don fancy the idea of calling up a strategy and still it could work for them too. Stats actually don't lie but for the case of gambling they can fail too.

Quote from: freedomgo on Today at 06:29:17 AM

That seems odd because if you're consistently betting on sports, you'll know whether you're backing the favorites or the underdogs. Sure, everyone has their own strategy, but it's important to know which side you're on since the odds matter. So, you've got a strategy, but I find it a bit strange.

You will hardly find a gambler with or without strategy that doesn't have a favourite team especially if they practice sports betting the most. There is a very high chance you will bet your team to win in most games too.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

Everybody got their favorite teams to beat, but looking forward on their effectivity and efficiency doesn't have to be reliable and 100% rest assured. Gambling on your best team has a lot of diversion on scores, so much better to have your alternative bets before it's too late. Losses tend to happen as errors accumulate during each game, that's why we need to look at to different sides of the story and don't just rely with one instances. Underdogs might bring unexpected surprises, so you better prepare for that to happen because its reality.

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Quote from: eisen33 on Today at 10:19:42 AM

Quote from: Akbarkoe on Today at 08:48:48 AM

What we need to pay attention to is the effectiveness itself in gambling, I think not a few people say that we will not always get lucky, will not always win even though we have the strongest team in a match, so seeing the effectiveness itself in betting on the favorite team in my opinion there is no if you demand that effectiveness always gets victory in gambling in the same way, we must understand on the other side that is big and cannot be controlled is that gambling is owned by luck so that you can get victory on the bets you make.

You can simply look at the history of the team's results and see that favorites also often lose points, if they do not lose very often, but they can have draws, and if you consider that the odds on the favorite are almost always very low, then the profit from such bets can be lost much faster than it would have to be earned. So betting on favorites is normal, and this is what players most often do, but for higher odds they collect events in a pair.

That's data and only provides possibilities, right? You won't be able to guess the reality of a match going on when you believe that you will win a match, you will say that historical data is very good and it is a favorite so that it allows victory in the match, but you will not know either that the team that is considered bad, has a bad history then you gamble for its defeat at a certain time to win, conquering the favorite team in an unexpected way like luck happens on the field.

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The Eagles really played well and you can already see from the first half that they will probably win that game. I didn't expect the Chiefs to play that bad but heck, they are just humans and there will always be bad days. Now Rejoice! Philly! Grin

I didn't place any bets for his game as I thought I don't need to because I know it will be a damn good game so no need to add some flavor on it. I am not a fan of both teams too but it's still football so might as well just watch it. The Chiefs may be the favorite but they are not that far from the Eagles when the odds came out.

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Quote from: cabron on Today at 08:24:19 AM

You may only bet the underdog if you are a die hard fan of that team, that's just it but if your goal is to win, the fave team would be your choice. Only a few people can see how an underdog can win.

When you want to win, you are going to bet on the team that you've analyzed, probably listen to the public, whether they are underdogs or not, but they have high potentials of winning that's the team you'll choose. But when you bet for fun and you are not betting with a large sum of money, you can always bet on your favourite. If they win, fine. If you don't win, that's also fine. So it just depends
Betting on the underdogs does not guarantee that they are going to win, games change, no two games are the same.

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Quote from: Akbarkoe on Today at 08:48:48 AM

What we need to pay attention to is the effectiveness itself in gambling, I think not a few people say that we will not always get lucky, will not always win even though we have the strongest team in a match, so seeing the effectiveness itself in betting on the favorite team in my opinion there is no if you demand that effectiveness always gets victory in gambling in the same way, we must understand on the other side that is big and cannot be controlled is that gambling is owned by luck so that you can get victory on the bets you make.

You can simply look at the history of the team's results and see that favorites also often lose points, if they do not lose very often, but they can have draws, and if you consider that the odds on the favorite are almost always very low, then the profit from such bets can be lost much faster than it would have to be earned. So betting on favorites is normal, and this is what players most often do, but for higher odds they collect events in a pair.

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The Eagles were not heavy underdogs before the match began. If I remember correctly, it was just +2 for them and the odds for default picks are almost identical. Many trusted the Eagles could really win it. It's just that the Chiefs are hyped because of Mahomes.
I was also one who lost on this bet as I thought Mahomes could carry the game for his team but I was mistaken. I guess the real mistake is underestimating the Eagles and I bet many gamblers did the same.
I cannot answer your last question but when I do bet for underdogs, it must mean that I checked that the team could really win the match. I sometimes take the +3 or +4 in the NBA.

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In betting, it's 50/50, even the odds is different.

This mean, even you bet on favorite, the chance to win is 50% while chance to lose is 50% too.

If you think betting on favorite means you will make money in the long run, you're wrong, it's not enough to earn by only betting on favorites.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

To be honest I don't have much knowledge on NFL sports but I think I can answer this.

Even then betting is all about luck I think betting only on favourite team wasn't a wise decision and as well it will no effective. And I think it doesn't matter whether I bet on my favorite team or not. I'm supporting my favorite team, that's enough for me. And in the case of gambling, this kind of emotion will never actually bring good results.

I have no intention of taking such a strategy so there can be no reason for it.I always suggest to everyone that when you bet, keep your emotions in check, analyze and based on the analysis, bet on the team that you think is likely to win even it was against your favorite team.
Even you will not always win by following this strategy but it could help you to lower your losses amount.

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Quote from: Rabata on Today at 09:31:09 AM

In betting, there is always a change in the outcome. I have realized from regularly participating in sports betting that when our ideas are similar in a matter, the outcome usually happens opposite to it. In most cases, I have lost by participating in my favorite bet. My winning rate in those bets is very small. I try to control myself more when there is a specific match. Because my loss rate is higher in such matches. That is why I agree with the OP's point of view. In gambling I have realized from long experience that the opposite of what the average person imagines will happen in reality. People who have made such comments in the meantime, I will definitely agree with them. The fact that the favorite also wins is comparatively very low.

In most sports events, the usual underdog really can lose in the match. They are underdogs for so many reasons, and so their chance of winning is quite lower when you compare it to the heavy favorites. However, one can't say that their chance of winning is always higher when it comes to betting the favorites because there are some instances that the underdogs will show their best performance.

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In betting, there is always a change in the outcome. I have realized from regularly participating in sports betting that when our ideas are similar in a matter, the outcome usually happens opposite to it. In most cases, I have lost by participating in my favorite bet. My winning rate in those bets is very small. I try to control myself more when there is a specific match. Because my loss rate is higher in such matches. That is why I agree with the OP's point of view. In gambling I have realized from long experience that the opposite of what the average person imagines will happen in reality. People who have made such comments in the meantime, I will definitely agree with them. The fact that the favorite also wins is comparatively very low.

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Quote from: Poker Player on February 09, 2025, 11:40:31 PM

Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

In this particular case I have not done it but in general I can bet on the underdog if I think there are factors that may affect, as their best player is injured, they play away from home or the opponent has a very good trend in recent games, things like that. The bad thing is that the bookmakers also take that into account. In the end it is to rely a little on a hunch hoping to be right because they will also pay you much more if you win.

What advantage the eagles had over the chiefs seems to be in mentality. A lot of the eagles players were humiliated before in their careers and so you could say that they were determined and extremely motivated to take this win.

And maybe the chiefs have gotten too overconfident, winning almost every game they have played in this season, and not expecting for the eagles to be any strong. If you betted against the public, congratulations. It’s paid off.

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What we need to pay attention to is the effectiveness itself in gambling, I think not a few people say that we will not always get lucky, will not always win even though we have the strongest team in a match, so seeing the effectiveness itself in betting on the favorite team in my opinion there is no if you demand that effectiveness always gets victory in gambling in the same way, we must understand on the other side that is big and cannot be controlled is that gambling is owned by luck so that you can get victory on the bets you make.

bitterguy28

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Quote from: freedomgo on Today at 06:29:17 AM

Quote from: mak013 on Today at 06:02:42 AM

I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy, i research event before betting, i watch odds. If everything is ok - i bet and it doesn`t matter who is favorite.
PS. And i try to avoid cup games - it can surprise. Right like in your example.

That seems odd because if you're consistently betting on sports, you'll know whether you're backing the favorites or the underdogs. Sure, everyone has their own strategy, but it's important to know which side you're on since the odds matter. So, you've got a strategy, but I find it a bit strange.

i guess he is talking about not immediately coming to a conclusion just because one is a favorite and one is an underdog some people do bet on the team that is known that is the favorite so if you don’t get swayed by the public’s opinion then you can make your own analysis and come up with a good betting strategy

Fivestar4everMVP

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

There are never guarantees of winning regardless of the side you decide to bet on in a sports match, all this debate on whether to bet on the underdog or favorite should have subsided if we all are really to start telling ourselves the truth..

Winning in sports betting deals with two things, and they are your level of knowledge on the sport and team you are betting on, and second and last is Luck.
One can have the knowledge and every thing else required to make the right predictions in a sports match, but he or she will still have to depend on luck to ensure that he or her prediction ended up correctly as predicted, without luck on our side, we can still be wrong whether you choose the underdog to beat the favorite or the favorite to beat the underdog.
This is something I believe we all should learn and know that there are no guarantees, if there was, we all will be billionaires because no one will know who will win a match, and still choose to bet on the team they know would lose.

cabron

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Bookmakers rarely make mistakes in considering which teams are favorite by what people thinks. If they see Team A is a favorite that means its really can win easy or at least it can win by few points against Team B.

You may only bet the underdog if you are a die hard fan of that team, that's just it but if your goal is to win, the fave team would be your choice. Only a few people can see how an underdog can win.

_act_

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Quote from: mak013 on Today at 06:02:42 AM

I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy, i research event before betting, i watch odds. If everything is ok - i bet and it doesn`t matter who is favorite.

I think you are confusing fans with favorite. You can be a fan of a club but if you know that another club the club you are a fan of is playing with have highest chance to win. That means the other club is your favorite. Which means after you have analyzed and choose a club to win, the club you choose is your favorite. So you will definitely have a favorite which is the club that you chose to win.

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Quote from: mak013 on Today at 06:02:42 AM

I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy, i research event before betting, i watch odds. If everything is ok - i bet and it doesn`t matter who is favorite.
PS. And i try to avoid cup games - it can surprise. Right like in your example.

That seems odd because if you're consistently betting on sports, you'll know whether you're backing the favorites or the underdogs. Sure, everyone has their own strategy, but it's important to know which side you're on since the odds matter. So, you've got a strategy, but I find it a bit strange.

mak013

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I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy, i research event before betting, i watch odds. If everything is ok - i bet and it doesn`t matter who is favorite.
PS. And i try to avoid cup games - it can surprise. Right like in your example.

swogerino

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

There will always be failures in favorites especially in sports like NFL, tennis and basketball being the sports with most failures when betting on favorites. I would say that this is not going to change as I have experienced first hand losing in basketball when the leader with odds 1.04 lost to the last place, we need to be able to choose a good team which this is also difficult. Sometimes when betting on non favorites I imagine that people see the h2h results and bet on a team who has valid good results, meaning they are in good form and have won most of their recent games.

Weawant

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Quote from: Pandu Geddon on Today at 04:05:20 AM

Betting on the favorite or underdog will not give consistent wins. Maybe for bets like in football matches where the league is dominated by one strong team like the French Ligue 1, betting on the favorite team can produce consistent wins. But it will also create new opportunities, namely draws in several matches.
The same as Liverpool's match in the FA Cup, they were very favored but had to lose surprisingly. This applies to all sports betting. We can bet on the favorite, but we must know that there will be other possibilities that make the bet not won.

Even in the French league there are times wheen thr dominating favourite loose game and even times when they draw so at those points in time it's usually not going to profit whosoever bets on them alone as favourites, I agree with your taughts as its reminds us that there's still never certainty in gambling, you only get lucky and you can only improve your chances to be lucky by making sure to have a good knowledge about teams, get a strategy and follow-up with discipline and your picks should be profitable majority of the time but never always.

bakasabo

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I believe it will be wrong to think that favorites always win and build gambling strategy on that. I think everyone has experienced in his life when obvious was beaten with unexpected, when we were sure in something for 100%, but then something unforeseen ruins our plans. Simply another explanation how random effect influence on our lives. But that is what makes gambling interesting; situation when high risk pays off.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites.

Have you forgotten that betting is very risky? You can not be so perfect in a way that your bets will always hit and win. That is not possible at all. Your favorite in the OP means the team you think would win. People will prefer to bet on the teams they think would win. That is how betting is. If you bet otherwise, you will lose more money. The odds are set not to favour bettors.

Kelward

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Betting on favorites cannot be effective all the time, sometimes it goes to the underdog, that is why it's called gambling, nobody knows what the final outcome will be. Favorites are better rated teams that gives better performances and they win most of the time that is why they're the main choice but sometimes offsets can happen and the underdog will carry the day. I don't have a rigid strategy on focusing only on favorites or underdogs, I analyze and go with what I think will give me wins at any point when I want to place a bet. My major focus is always on how much I'm willing to risk on any bets because I know that at the end of the day luck can determine the outcome of the game.

crwth

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Well, with the recent Super Bowl, there are unpredictable things that have happened, and it's pretty hard to predict, just like in anything (NBA Trades *wink wink*)

Anyway, it's really all about the results, and underdog stories are unpredictable but great storytellers. With all the favorites, they want to prove something to the world.

Personally, I would stick to my favorites—not necessarily because they are the superstars—but there are factors. These are just literal favorites.

Apocollapse

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I don't bet on such bet, this situation is similar to facing Real Madrid in final Champions League, I give an example in soccer because most people understand about this sports. Let's say Liverpool or Barcelona is the opponent, even they're strong, but people still believe Real Madrid is the favorite since they're known in Champions League.

Quote from: Jating on Today at 01:06:42 AM

It's obvious that even bookies make mistakes in their selection of their odds like in the games between the Chiefs vs Eagles and we can say that it was the underdog that really prevail. But I believed that there are fans who bet on the underdog here, for many reasons, i.e. they hate Mahomes and the Chiefs, Grin

.

There's no mistakes here, Chiefs is two times become a champion in the last 2 years, people and bookies think Chiefs gonna become a champion again since they have "winning mentality".

Pandu Geddon

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

Betting on the favorite or underdog will not give consistent wins. Maybe for bets like in football matches where the league is dominated by one strong team like the French Ligue 1, betting on the favorite team can produce consistent wins. But it will also create new opportunities, namely draws in several matches.
The same as Liverpool's match in the FA Cup, they were very favored but had to lose surprisingly. This applies to all sports betting. We can bet on the favorite, but we must know that there will be other possibilities that make the bet not won.

Sanitough

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Quote from: mirakal on Today at 03:56:30 AM

And it tells us that winning in gambling is not because we choose the right team but just luck. That is how gambling works.

That's what most people think, they bet just hoping to get lucky. But gamblers with that mindset rarely win in the long run, because if we really want to succeed, we need to change our mindset. Sports betting isn't about luck but it's about skill and consistency.

mirakal

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Odds are somewhat tricky, and there is no assurance. Because if all the favorite teams win, nobody will choose to bet on the underdog. But the real situation says that both the underdog and favorite have the chance to win.

It is just the same in other sports. Odds couldn't say who is going to win until the game ends. That is why I don't rely on odds but rather check their performance.

And it tells us that winning in gambling is not because we choose the right team but just luck. That is how gambling works.

Kemarit

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Quote from: dimonstration on Today at 03:03:59 AM

Quote from: Jating on Today at 01:06:42 AM

Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

…

It's obvious that even bookies make mistakes in their selection of their odds like in the games between the Chiefs vs Eagles and we can say that it was the underdog that really prevail. But I believed that there are fans who bet on the underdog here, for many reasons, i.e. they hate Mahomes and the Chiefs, Grin

.

No I didn't bet on the Eagles though, although I did follow the results and I was happy that the Eagles won this time. Of course, this can be applied in any other sports. That you can look at the underdog and see if they can pull a big upset. But not underdogs though will win, and this is the very definition of gambling we really don't know the result and maybe we have the gut feeling to bet on the underdog and win.

It’s not a bookie mistake rather those odds are based on the popularity of that outcome to come through. Bookie doesn’t guarantee that their odds is the basis of what will be the outcome rather they grade it in consideration with their profit.

Most of the bookie error are those matches that was assigned odds a little bit higher than the regular odds for the match that gives room for value bet and arbitrage bet but a simple odds placement on a favorite team is never an error from bookie side because that what the stats dictates.

It's not the popularity of the outcome, it's base on numbers that this sports bookies released, as they have thousands of data in their hand to process and then they will come up which one is going to be the favorite.

And it just so happen that Eagles has way more heart, play good defense and never alloy the Kansas to have their game right from the beginning. Although I was still thinking that the Chiefs might have to pull another miracle comeback just like what the Brady time with New England. But the Chiefs doesn't have it in them and it's no denying that the Eagles as underdog are going to win the championship.

dimonstration

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Quote from: Jating on Today at 01:06:42 AM

Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

…

It's obvious that even bookies make mistakes in their selection of their odds like in the games between the Chiefs vs Eagles and we can say that it was the underdog that really prevail. But I believed that there are fans who bet on the underdog here, for many reasons, i.e. they hate Mahomes and the Chiefs, Grin

.

No I didn't bet on the Eagles though, although I did follow the results and I was happy that the Eagles won this time. Of course, this can be applied in any other sports. That you can look at the underdog and see if they can pull a big upset. But not underdogs though will win, and this is the very definition of gambling we really don't know the result and maybe we have the gut feeling to bet on the underdog and win.

It’s not a bookie mistake rather those odds are based on the popularity of that outcome to come through. Bookie doesn’t guarantee that their odds is the basis of what will be the outcome rather they grade it in consideration with their profit.

Most of the bookie error are those matches that was assigned odds a little bit higher than the regular odds for the match that gives room for value bet and arbitrage bet but a simple odds placement on a favorite team is never an error from bookie side because that what the stats dictates.

Beparanf

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

I didn’t post on this game but I watch superbowl due to the hype. To be fair, Eagles is not weak opponent since their stats is always close to Chief so popularity aside their skills is close to each other.

Sometimes team classified as favorites is influenced by the charisma of the team and forgets the real stats of both team.

This is the reason I didn’t bet on this match since this is a close fight while the odds showing different interpretation.

Jating

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

It's obvious that even bookies make mistakes in their selection of their odds like in the games between the Chiefs vs Eagles and we can say that it was the underdog that really prevail. But I believed that there are fans who bet on the underdog here, for many reasons, i.e. they hate Mahomes and the Chiefs, Grin

.

No I didn't bet on the Eagles though, although I did follow the results and I was happy that the Eagles won this time. Of course, this can be applied in any other sports. That you can look at the underdog and see if they can pull a big upset. But not underdogs though will win, and this is the very definition of gambling we really don't know the result and maybe we have the gut feeling to bet on the underdog and win.

Die_empty

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

Sometimes underdogs pulls surprises that would make you want to bet on them consistently. But the case is that these low rated teams win big games once in a while. I remembered the last World Cup in Qatar when Argentine lost to Saudi Arabia in the group stage. Based on analysis, most people will bet on the defending Champions because they were the favourites to win the game.

People bet on underdogs because of high odds which could also lead to bigger payout potential. But the possibilities of winning these games are very low. That's why people always prefer to get on favourites.

Poker Player

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

In this particular case I have not done it but in general I can bet on the underdog if I think there are factors that may affect, as their best player is injured, they play away from home or the opponent has a very good trend in recent games, things like that. The bad thing is that the bookmakers also take that into account. In the end it is to rely a little on a hunch hoping to be right because they will also pay you much more if you win.

stadus

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You win some, you lose some, that's how it goes.

I'm not a big fan of NFL, but there's a common saying in sports betting: bet against the public. The public usually goes for the favorites, which often ends up costing them. So if the data shared earlier reflects the true winning rate on ATS this season, betting on favorites all the time might not lead to losses. Of course, no one bets that way since we’re selective with our picks, and sometimes even our best choices lose. It really all comes down to how good we are at choosing the right side.

Ziskinberg

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Not always, because you don't win every time. This season in the NFL, check out the data here: https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/league-trends/seasontodate

According to the numbers, the favorite spread has covered 53.8% of the time. With smart bankroll management, that slight edge means a bit of profit, since at average odds of -110, you only need a 52.6% hit rate just to break even.

kotajikikox

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With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

Topic: Betting on favorites. not always effective (Read 329 times)