Sorry to say this that if I should read that book (the articles on the link) that is included in the OP before I should start to bet, that means I will never bet in my life time. I think I do not have to be like I am going on an educational journey like schooling before betting.
But I will like to know about expected value. I checked this while I clicked on the link:
How much should you risk per bet?To win in sports betting you need a betting strategy with a positive expected value, i.e. an estimation of your average winnings per bet. But how much capital should you risk per bet to achieve maximum profits? For this, you need to understand the concept of utility. Read on to find out all about it.
Expected value, a concept first explored by French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat in the 17th century when trying to solve the problem of a game of points, shows us how much we can expect to win, on average, from a bet. It doesn’t, however, have very much to say about how much capital a bettor should risk on their bet. Here is where expected utility comes into play.
I have preferred to just use 5% or less of my weekly income on gambling, this has been helping me, but this is new to me and I do not really understand what expected value really is. Can you illustrate it?
Let us take example from Club A and Club B.
If the odd for club A to win is 1.8
While the odd for club B to win is 2.4
If odd for draw is 3.5
How is the the expected value calculated using EV = Po - 1? To know if it is positive or negative.
Basically the expected value, is the average value you can expect from a game or a bet.
To compute it from a bet you need to know the
real likelihood of the outcome to happen.
If you are likely to win 1$ half time and lose 1$ the other half you will get 50 times $1 and 50 times - $1 if you repeat the event 100 times. The average winning value will be then 1+1+1...(50 times)+(-1)+(-1)+(-1)...(50 other times) divided by 100
That is to say
( 50 x 1 + 50 x -1 ) / 100 = 0Here with a 1$ bet on a Club A victory @1.8 we would be expected to win $0.8 and to lose $-1 an unknown number of times if we were able to repeat the match in the same conditions 100 times.
If we think this number of Club A victories would be 60 for 100 matches against Club B, that is to say if the
real likelihood of their victory is 60% then we will get
EV = 0.8 x P(Avictory) - 1 x P(Anovictory) = 0.8 x P(Avictory) - 1 x (1-P(Avictory)) = 0.8 x 0.6 - 1 x 0.4 = 0.08Now if we want to include the expense of the stake.
We can consider we will lose it each time (100%), get it back with the winnings($1.8) 60% of times and not receiving anything($0) 40% of times, then we will get
EV = 1.8 x 0.6 + 0 x 0.4 - 1 x 1 = 1.8 x 0.6 - 1 = 0.08So we can conclude that EV of one bet is its european odds (1.8) multiplied by its real likelihood to happen minus the stake ie 1 if we compute it for a one dollar bet.