Topic: Betting tips discussion (Read 1241 times)
Sounds good. As you say you must not hesitate which I do. My gut is almost always right yet fear makes me not listen. Your tips are good. Hopefully I can perform well as you can.
First game analysed:
Psg-Om French match on the 21/05
This game is important and psg never took a game lightly.
What's more, it's the last match of Zlatan, main player of psg, in this team. No reason for him to not try to burst an awesome show before leaving.
The difference of level between the two teams is a huge gap. Om never won a game against psg for last year.
Of course it's the finale of the championship no anything can happen! But the good side of it is that odds are rather high!
Here is my personal betting strategy for the game. I expect psg to win by far, but put a high bet on a simple win in case they lead only by one goal. All bets amount are in mB
Psg wins odd 1.38 bet 200
Psg wins by 2 goals or more odd 2.14 bet 75
Over 2.5 goals odd 1.86 bet 100
Psg wins first half by 1 goal odd 1.85 bet 100
Psg-Om French match on the 21/05
This game is important and psg never took a game lightly.
What's more, it's the last match of Zlatan, main player of psg, in this team. No reason for him to not try to burst an awesome show before leaving.
The difference of level between the two teams is a huge gap. Om never won a game against psg for last year.
Of course it's the finale of the championship no anything can happen! But the good side of it is that odds are rather high!
Here is my personal betting strategy for the game. I expect psg to win by far, but put a high bet on a simple win in case they lead only by one goal. All bets amount are in mB
Psg wins odd 1.38 bet 200
Psg wins by 2 goals or more odd 2.14 bet 75
Over 2.5 goals odd 1.86 bet 100
Psg wins first half by 1 goal odd 1.85 bet 100
Like I said, 6-0 for Canada! Easy cake ^^
Well I've got a problem folks, I keep playing without writing because I like to play midgame. There was a beautiful odd of 1.87 for under 2.5 goals at Belgium game at the 81' so it's a great opportunity.
I've decided to try to write regular report on my bets and to write at least a day before the huge bets I'm putting in games I've analysed. It'll help everyone and give you time to discuss it and place your bets
Well I've got a problem folks, I keep playing without writing because I like to play midgame. There was a beautiful odd of 1.87 for under 2.5 goals at Belgium game at the 81' so it's a great opportunity.
I've decided to try to write regular report on my bets and to write at least a day before the huge bets I'm putting in games I've analysed. It'll help everyone and give you time to discuss it and place your bets
A new kind of time today about ice hockey to change a bit ^^
Canada vs Sweden
The odd isn't high in itself: 1.37
But I'll put a triple bet on that because it's a sure win. Canada it's 22 win out of 23. Sweden it's 3 out of 7 and with some difficulty wins against low teams like Switzerland !
Bet whatever you feel but it's a nearly sure win at an excellent rate
Canada vs Sweden
The odd isn't high in itself: 1.37
But I'll put a triple bet on that because it's a sure win. Canada it's 22 win out of 23. Sweden it's 3 out of 7 and with some difficulty wins against low teams like Switzerland !
Bet whatever you feel but it's a nearly sure win at an excellent rate
Any prediction about baseball 
Hello!Sorry but I don't know much about baseball in general. I don't follow this sport, so I don't think I'll make any prediction here!
what do you think about this one? https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1KVXxF2gx3sisirM9wa2iATjHUrra38Rt7
Many people are of opinion that it will be a draw or United will win , I dint want to take a risk , so I just chose under option . From the past 3 matches (in home )United have scored less , do you think this is a good bet ? And also Granollers was a easy one , he is playing well.
Many people are of opinion that it will be a draw or United will win , I dint want to take a risk , so I just chose under option . From the past 3 matches (in home )United have scored less , do you think this is a good bet ? And also Granollers was a easy one , he is playing well.
Hey! Sorry I didn't see your post earlier ^^
I'm a bit surprised by the result, 3.5 goals or less is a safe options most of the time!
Any prediction about baseball
So time for a little sum up:
Since the beginning 9 days ago, we went from 1125 to 1583mBTC
Quite a nice result! So the basic bet is going right to 75 mBTC !
Let's remember it's always important some of what you win otherwise nothing is a definitive win
So I withdrawEd 183 mBTC and the bankroll is now of 1400 mBTC stay tuned for next tips!
Since the beginning 9 days ago, we went from 1125 to 1583mBTC
Quite a nice result! So the basic bet is going right to 75 mBTC !
Let's remember it's always important some of what you win otherwise nothing is a definitive win
So I withdrawEd 183 mBTC and the bankroll is now of 1400 mBTC stay tuned for next tips!
what do you think about this one? https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1KVXxF2gx3sisirM9wa2iATjHUrra38Rt7
Many people are of opinion that it will be a draw or United will win , I dint want to take a risk , so I just chose under option . From the past 3 matches (in home )United have scored less , do you think this is a good bet ? And also Granollers was a easy one , he is playing well.
Many people are of opinion that it will be a draw or United will win , I dint want to take a risk , so I just chose under option . From the past 3 matches (in home )United have scored less , do you think this is a good bet ? And also Granollers was a easy one , he is playing well.
Well seems that after the 6/6 in baskets, last prediction was wrong! It was clearly not the good time to be wrong considering the amount bet on that game, but I've been as surprised as everyone here! Let's hope that other predictions will be better.
A last minute tennis bet:
Carreno busta - cervantes
I found an odd at 1.24 for a win of busta. I won't give an amount here, bet whatever you feel like fumbling because busta is at 100% victories against cervantes and more than 80% on ground xD
A last minute tennis bet:
Carreno busta - cervantes
I found an odd at 1.24 for a win of busta. I won't give an amount here, bet whatever you feel like fumbling because busta is at 100% victories against cervantes and more than 80% on ground xD
First second and third: basket golden state-Oklahoma city
Gsw wins by -7.5 1.90 double bet
Over 223 points 1.81
Gsw wins 1.25 4 bets
Fourth: Ireland saint Patrick-finney hips
St Patrick wins 1.46 bet 75
Fifth and sixth: Denmark AGF-Aalborg
Aalborg wins 2.23 bet 75
Over 2.5 got 1.77 bet 75
Seventh and Eighth: England hull city-derby county
Over 1.5 goals 1.41 bet 75
A triple bet split in two. Half on draw 3.51 and half on hull city 2.14
Gsw wins by -7.5 1.90 double bet
Over 223 points 1.81
Gsw wins 1.25 4 bets
Fourth: Ireland saint Patrick-finney hips
St Patrick wins 1.46 bet 75
Fifth and sixth: Denmark AGF-Aalborg
Aalborg wins 2.23 bet 75
Over 2.5 got 1.77 bet 75
Seventh and Eighth: England hull city-derby county
Over 1.5 goals 1.41 bet 75
A triple bet split in two. Half on draw 3.51 and half on hull city 2.14
5/16/16
Play the TB Rays ML and Oakland Athletics ML
Play the TB Rays ML and Oakland Athletics ML
Well, again nearly a perfect. I was a bit too optimistic with the 2.5 goals or more on Aik game but I knew this 2.14 odd bet was the good one for the game.
So it's a day at +140 mB. Quite impressive which means that were statistically expecting less good bets for next days. You can't really beat the stats it's impossible to make a 5/6 everyday on odds around 1.6 ^^
So we're not rising the bet amount for now, let's wait a few more days and stabilise our bankroll.
Seems like my tips are not so bad though, if you followed them all, you're at +30% since day 1 only a week ago
So it's a day at +140 mB. Quite impressive which means that were statistically expecting less good bets for next days. You can't really beat the stats it's impossible to make a 5/6 everyday on odds around 1.6 ^^
So we're not rising the bet amount for now, let's wait a few more days and stabilise our bankroll.
Seems like my tips are not so bad though, if you followed them all, you're at +30% since day 1 only a week ago
First and second: Norway Rosenborg-lillestron
Win Rosenborg 1.24 double bet
Over 2.5 goals 1.5
Third and fourth: Sweden aik-djurgardr
Win aik 2.14 double bet
Over 2. 5 goals 1.75 double bet
Win Rosenborg 1.24 double bet
Over 2.5 goals 1.5
Third and fourth: Sweden aik-djurgardr
Win aik 2.14 double bet
Over 2. 5 goals 1.75 double bet
Nice bets, keep it up.
Hello people!
Well this was a crazy bet series!
It's the end of the day and we got +340 mB
Clearly it was an excellent idea to bet max on this basketball game and on the Turkish game.
It was not perfect though. Because it was rather risky and with a few mistakes.
But it ends well our first week of gambling with a bankroll of 1340mB which means +240mB or +20% on the bankroll.
That's a crazy stat and I'll try to do even better next week! So keep betting wisely
Well this was a crazy bet series!
It's the end of the day and we got +340 mB
Clearly it was an excellent idea to bet max on this basketball game and on the Turkish game.
It was not perfect though. Because it was rather risky and with a few mistakes.
But it ends well our first week of gambling with a bankroll of 1340mB which means +240mB or +20% on the bankroll.
That's a crazy stat and I'll try to do even better next week! So keep betting wisely
Then two big betting games
Turkey fenerbaha-genderbigli
Win fenerbaha 1.32 I've bet 5 times the normal amount here. It's a simply 1.05 betting game normally! They just can't lose!
Over 2.5 goals 1.58
Genderbigli 1 goal or more 1.62
France basketball monaco-Nanterre
Monaco -6.5 1.81
Over 153.5 1.79 double bet
Monaco win 1.27 a four times bet here. Same idea than before, they just can't lose!
Turkey fenerbaha-genderbigli
Win fenerbaha 1.32 I've bet 5 times the normal amount here. It's a simply 1.05 betting game normally! They just can't lose!
Over 2.5 goals 1.58
Genderbigli 1 goal or more 1.62
France basketball monaco-Nanterre
Monaco -6.5 1.81
Over 153.5 1.79 double bet
Monaco win 1.27 a four times bet here. Same idea than before, they just can't lose!
Well yesterday bets were not perfect and gave us a -47mB result, mainly because of this incredible Irish game where only 1 goal was made! I still don't understand how it's possible but we'll... that's why you call that a bet!
Today's bets are a bit more risky mainly because a few games are really interesting so bets will be high!
First andsecond: England everton-Norwich
Win everton 1.72 double bet
Under 3.5 goals 1.61 double bet
Bets are doubled because odds are higher than 1.5 and I think it's really amazing to see such odds
Third and fourth : Portugal benfica national
Under 4 goals 1.5
Under 1.5 goals 1st half 1.74
This one is a bit risky it's more for fun
Today's bets are a bit more risky mainly because a few games are really interesting so bets will be high!
First andsecond: England everton-Norwich
Win everton 1.72 double bet
Under 3.5 goals 1.61 double bet
Bets are doubled because odds are higher than 1.5 and I think it's really amazing to see such odds
Third and fourth : Portugal benfica national
Under 4 goals 1.5
Under 1.5 goals 1st half 1.74
This one is a bit risky it's more for fun
So after this awesome day let's hope we do at least as good!
First bet: Austria liefering-salzburg
Over 2.5 goals 1.6
It's obvious we gonna see at least a 4 goals game, so even with some security, this bet seems good!
Second bet: Austria innsbruck-salzburg
Win innsbruck: 1.75
Innsbruck is a great team with a great winning streak, I was amazed to find a 1.75 odd, anything over 1.5 is good here!
Third and forth: France dijon-ajaccio
Win Dijon 1.55
Over 2.5 goals 1.68
Here again, dijon is clearly above! And at home! Gonna be bloody
Fifth and sixth: France le havre-bourg en Bresse
Win le havre 1.47
Under 3.5 goals 1.5
Le havre is much better but they're really careful and defensive! So it should be less than 3 goals
Seventh: Slovakia myjava-ruzomberok
Win myjava 1.78
Here I doubled the amount! Seriously? A 1.78 odd? You can bet as long as it's above 1.4 for me
Eighth and nineth: Ireland limerick-athlone
Over 3.5 goals 1.64
Over 1.5 goals at first half 1.79
Limerick didn't lose a single match for months. They destroy their opponents, the odd on them winning is about 1.08...
Question is not are they going to win, question is by how far?
Tenth: Austria st polten-linz
Over 2.5 goals 1.89
First bet: Austria liefering-salzburg
Over 2.5 goals 1.6
It's obvious we gonna see at least a 4 goals game, so even with some security, this bet seems good!
Second bet: Austria innsbruck-salzburg
Win innsbruck: 1.75
Innsbruck is a great team with a great winning streak, I was amazed to find a 1.75 odd, anything over 1.5 is good here!
Third and forth: France dijon-ajaccio
Win Dijon 1.55
Over 2.5 goals 1.68
Here again, dijon is clearly above! And at home! Gonna be bloody
Fifth and sixth: France le havre-bourg en Bresse
Win le havre 1.47
Under 3.5 goals 1.5
Le havre is much better but they're really careful and defensive! So it should be less than 3 goals
Seventh: Slovakia myjava-ruzomberok
Win myjava 1.78
Here I doubled the amount! Seriously? A 1.78 odd? You can bet as long as it's above 1.4 for me
Eighth and nineth: Ireland limerick-athlone
Over 3.5 goals 1.64
Over 1.5 goals at first half 1.79
Limerick didn't lose a single match for months. They destroy their opponents, the odd on them winning is about 1.08...
Question is not are they going to win, question is by how far?
Tenth: Austria st polten-linz
Over 2.5 goals 1.89
Sixth and seven: Germany basket
Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it
Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50
Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose
I think I'm going to follow you with this handicap for Brose as I also seen the last game of those two team Brose dominant completely and finish the game with the huge edge thank you for reminding me of this game I almost forget to bet from it. good luck.Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it
Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50
Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose
Well I hope you did!
In fact the -11.5 was even a bit too cautious, you could have gone with a -18 without a problem ^^
OK guys,today was as good as yesterday was bad!
Most bets were ok, 7/9 is a good ratio. It's enough to earn money on average, but here it's especially good thanks to 2 bets incredible: the basket one and the Iceland game.
It's a day at +184mB for me. I hope you're still following guys, next betting tips are coming soon!
Most bets were ok, 7/9 is a good ratio. It's enough to earn money on average, but here it's especially good thanks to 2 bets incredible: the basket one and the Iceland game.
It's a day at +184mB for me. I hope you're still following guys, next betting tips are coming soon!
Sixth and seven: Germany basket
Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it
Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50
Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose
I think I'm going to follow you with this handicap for Brose as I also seen the last game of those two team Brose dominant completely and finish the game with the huge edge thank you for reminding me of this game I almost forget to bet from it. good luck. Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it
Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50
Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose
The problem with tips are most of them are low odds, so if you are going with 5%, one loss, you have to win atleast 3 matches continuously to collect the loss, so if the odds are more than 1.60, then also you have to get a good percentage of wins to get some profit.
Indeed you're right but that was a special Monday and it was not my best day for sure xD
Most of other tips are between 1.5 and 2, that's the best area to bet!
Sixth and seven: Germany basket
Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it
Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50
Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose
Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it
Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50
Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose
Here are the new bets
First: Russia ural-Spartak
Under 3 odd 1.5
It's a really good odd for less than 3 goals.
Second and third: Norway StartIK-Rosenborg
Win Rosenborg 1.35
Over 2.5 goals 1.58
Rosenborg won most of its games with much more than 3 goals
Fourth: Norway kongsvinger-kristiansuund
Win kongsvinger 2
I'm not saying kongsvinger is 100% going to win but they're still having a huge win series and a 2 odd is probably what you could get at best
Fifth: Switzerland young boys-st galen
Win young boys 1.36
Young boys is winning absolutely everything, no way they gonna lose
First: Russia ural-Spartak
Under 3 odd 1.5
It's a really good odd for less than 3 goals.
Second and third: Norway StartIK-Rosenborg
Win Rosenborg 1.35
Over 2.5 goals 1.58
Rosenborg won most of its games with much more than 3 goals
Fourth: Norway kongsvinger-kristiansuund
Win kongsvinger 2
I'm not saying kongsvinger is 100% going to win but they're still having a huge win series and a 2 odd is probably what you could get at best
Fifth: Switzerland young boys-st galen
Win young boys 1.36
Young boys is winning absolutely everything, no way they gonna lose
well indeed giving you an option and letting you gamble, same way win or win lose or lose it is just same arguments the wisdom is if you are sure and instinct declared it from your heart much provably you will choose the big winnings, the only example that I knew similar to this is a fixed game what if you know that the game is fixed and odds for the weak team is too big but it is already been fixed are going to gamble? so for me this tips will be exempt on some aspects but thank you for opening this mate.
The problem with tips are most of them are low odds, so if you are going with 5%, one loss, you have to win atleast 3 matches continuously to collect the loss, so if the odds are more than 1.60, then also you have to get a good percentage of wins to get some profit.
So Monday was a truly bad day for our bets! Nearly half answers were wrong which makes a rather horrible stats with 1.5 average odds ^^
Well shit happens, here two games destroyed our predictions, especially the Switzerland game which was a real surprise. The game was the first draw of last 20 games and one of the only three getting less than 3 goals.
But well that's why it's important to have a good bankroll management.
It's going to be hard to do less good so that's the good news.
Well shit happens, here two games destroyed our predictions, especially the Switzerland game which was a real surprise. The game was the first draw of last 20 games and one of the only three getting less than 3 goals.
But well that's why it's important to have a good bankroll management.
It's going to be hard to do less good so that's the good news.
Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite, you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else
Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2
Against the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow
It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.
We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.
Sorry again but I have the firm impression your reasoning is completely false ^^
What you're saying is in a sense "you bet more on lower odds because you can earn more". That makes as much sense as saying to bet more on a dice game if you have higher chances. You don't make money by betting on confident bets, you make money by betting on bets priced higher than reality by the booker. It's much more profitable to bet on something with a 2.5 odds if you think real odd is 2 than betting on 1.2 odds if real odd is 1.2
But with you're reasoning, taking the odd as an absolute can lead only to great losses because the small odds losses will be much more important than big odds win.
Would you make a bigger bet on red on the roulette wheel or on the number 7?
If you can't answer that question correctly this project is doomed.
You don't understand how betting works your question is flawed ^^
The good question would be:
Would you bet more on something with 50% chance of happening and giving you 2x the amount or on something with 10% chance but giving you 12x the amount?
That's the good question ^^
Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite, you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else
Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2
Against the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow
It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.
We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.
Sorry again but I have the firm impression your reasoning is completely false ^^
What you're saying is in a sense "you bet more on lower odds because you can earn more". That makes as much sense as saying to bet more on a dice game if you have higher chances. You don't make money by betting on confident bets, you make money by betting on bets priced higher than reality by the booker. It's much more profitable to bet on something with a 2.5 odds if you think real odd is 2 than betting on 1.2 odds if real odd is 1.2
But with you're reasoning, taking the odd as an absolute can lead only to great losses because the small odds losses will be much more important than big odds win.
Would you make a bigger bet on red on the roulette wheel or on the number 7?
If you can't answer that question correctly this project is doomed.
Here's an important advice for anyone wishing to bet to earn money:
KEEP A RECORD OF ALL YOUR BETS
Of course it's first because you need to keep a track of your method and of your bankroll. But not only.
The bet I made on Russian game was 50mB bet on 1.5 goals or more. It was considered as a loss while game ended 1-2
Of course it was just a small mistakes and thing like this happen. But as I keep a record of all my bets, I saw it immediately and just asked the booker to check. It took 3 minutes to be relayed with a small bonus for the inconvenience and that's why it's mandatory to keep a record of all your bets
KEEP A RECORD OF ALL YOUR BETS
Of course it's first because you need to keep a track of your method and of your bankroll. But not only.
The bet I made on Russian game was 50mB bet on 1.5 goals or more. It was considered as a loss while game ended 1-2
Of course it was just a small mistakes and thing like this happen. But as I keep a record of all my bets, I saw it immediately and just asked the booker to check. It took 3 minutes to be relayed with a small bonus for the inconvenience and that's why it's mandatory to keep a record of all your bets
Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite, you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else
Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2
Against the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow
It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.
We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.
Sorry again but I have the firm impression your reasoning is completely false ^^
What you're saying is in a sense "you bet more on lower odds because you can earn more". That makes as much sense as saying to bet more on a dice game if you have higher chances. You don't make money by betting on confident bets, you make money by betting on bets priced higher than reality by the booker. It's much more profitable to bet on something with a 2.5 odds if you think real odd is 2 than betting on 1.2 odds if real odd is 1.2
But with you're reasoning, taking the odd as an absolute can lead only to great losses because the small odds losses will be much more important than big odds win.
Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite, you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else
Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2
Against the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow
It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.
We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.
Yeah, i love to bet on goals.
Over 2.0 goals is my favourite bet.
And yes crazy thread but im already loving it.
Over 2.0 goals is my favourite bet.
And yes crazy thread but im already loving it.
A last minute bet for today! (Crazy day indeed) 
Russia: Sp Moscou-Arsenal Tula
Over 1.5 goal odds 1.42
It's really a gamble to bet on one of the two teams as they're both good and efficient. But it's much less risky to bet on the amount of goals! Both teams are rather agressive and around 85% of their games were with 2 goals or more !
Russia: Sp Moscou-Arsenal Tula
Over 1.5 goal odds 1.42
It's really a gamble to bet on one of the two teams as they're both good and efficient. But it's much less risky to bet on the amount of goals! Both teams are rather agressive and around 85% of their games were with 2 goals or more !
Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite, you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else
Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2
Against the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow
Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.
either way, good luck.
OK there is another page I forgot ^^
Fifth and sixth bets: Ireland derry-finn harps
Winner derry 1.49
Over 1.5 goals 1.45
Reason: I was surprised to find such good odds for the over 1.5 goals. Derry wins a lot at home and finn harps lost a lot when they're not at home. Most importantly, 90% of their games had 2 goals or more.
Seventh bet: England West Han - Manchester
Winner Manchester 2.5
Draw 3.49
Reason: here I split the bet in two (25 on each)because West han won barely 15% of last 20 games but draw are still common. Here you win either on Manchester or draw with such odds so nothing to be afraid of.
Eighth a.des ninth : Ireland Dundalk-Wonderers
Winner Dundalk 1.18
Over 3 goals 1.76
Reason: Dundalk is at home and first of the championship. Wanderers is tenth. All the games of 2015 were done with 4 goals or more. The ninth is a bit more risky but has a good profit and as Dundalk is at he they should really destroy Wonderers.
Tenth: Costa Rica Alajudense-Herediane
Winner: Alajudense 1.81
This bet is a little bit more risky than usual but the odd I found was excellent for a team playing at home and winning a lot! Nearly 2 for a home play against a bad team? That's a good opportunity! But don't bet if you don't find an odd higher than 1.5 in my opinion.
Fifth and sixth bets: Ireland derry-finn harps
Winner derry 1.49
Over 1.5 goals 1.45
Reason: I was surprised to find such good odds for the over 1.5 goals. Derry wins a lot at home and finn harps lost a lot when they're not at home. Most importantly, 90% of their games had 2 goals or more.
Seventh bet: England West Han - Manchester
Winner Manchester 2.5
Draw 3.49
Reason: here I split the bet in two (25 on each)because West han won barely 15% of last 20 games but draw are still common. Here you win either on Manchester or draw with such odds so nothing to be afraid of.
Eighth a.des ninth : Ireland Dundalk-Wonderers
Winner Dundalk 1.18
Over 3 goals 1.76
Reason: Dundalk is at home and first of the championship. Wanderers is tenth. All the games of 2015 were done with 4 goals or more. The ninth is a bit more risky but has a good profit and as Dundalk is at he they should really destroy Wonderers.
Tenth: Costa Rica Alajudense-Herediane
Winner: Alajudense 1.81
This bet is a little bit more risky than usual but the odd I found was excellent for a team playing at home and winning a lot! Nearly 2 for a home play against a bad team? That's a good opportunity! But don't bet if you don't find an odd higher than 1.5 in my opinion.
I've got an unusual number of bets for this Monday, but we'll when the situation is good you have to know to seize the opportunity. Sometimes I don't bet for 3 days but that's not the case today!
First bet: Croatia Dinama-Sloven
Winner: Dinama odd: 1.21
Reason: easy, Dinama won each and every game against Slovenia since 2011, and they seem rather performant for now not tired at all, a rather safe bet I'd say.
Second bet: Austria KSV-FAC
Winner: KSV odd: 1.65
Reason: KSV has impressive results when they play at home (which is the case here) while FAC is making a terrible season until now, they're the last of the championship. Of course that's not an absolute proof but I'd say any bet with an odd superior to 1.5 is good here!
Third and Fourth bets (so 50 mB each): Switzerland Basel-Thun
Winner: Basel 1.44 over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46)
Reason: Basel is at home and first of championship. They literally destroyed Thun in most past games, basel won 16 out of the 20 last games against Thun and put more than 2.5 goals in 15 of them
Again any odd superior to 1.25 seems good to me
First bet: Croatia Dinama-Sloven
Winner: Dinama odd: 1.21
Reason: easy, Dinama won each and every game against Slovenia since 2011, and they seem rather performant for now not tired at all, a rather safe bet I'd say.
Second bet: Austria KSV-FAC
Winner: KSV odd: 1.65
Reason: KSV has impressive results when they play at home (which is the case here) while FAC is making a terrible season until now, they're the last of the championship. Of course that's not an absolute proof but I'd say any bet with an odd superior to 1.5 is good here!
Third and Fourth bets (so 50 mB each): Switzerland Basel-Thun
Winner: Basel 1.44 over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46)
Reason: Basel is at home and first of championship. They literally destroyed Thun in most past games, basel won 16 out of the 20 last games against Thun and put more than 2.5 goals in 15 of them
Again any odd superior to 1.25 seems good to me
Hey people!
I've bet for a few weeks on betcoin.ag mainly on football (or soccer depending on where you're from ^^). And I've been rather successful, a 25% roi so I've decided to share my reasoning here hoping discussion will help me improve those results and maybe helping someone to do the good bet!
Don't hesitate to make any proposition if you feel like you have a good opportunity!
First of all for people not used to regular betting, it's important to manage correctly your bankroll.
I'll update regularly my bankroll here in order to keep a history of it but the idea is the same overall. I manage my bankroll always the same way. I place all my bets as a fixed amount of average 5% of my bankroll at the beginning of the week.
For now my bankroll is of 1125 mB so my fixed bet is of 50mB. That's not exactly 5% but it makes everything much simpler to calculate.
So for this week every bet placed is of 50mB there is absolutely no exception for this rule. That's the most important point to win on the long run! Having a stable and rigorous way of managing your bankroll. There are numerous ways of managing your bankroll, mine is just one. But choose your method and keep to it
I've bet for a few weeks on betcoin.ag mainly on football (or soccer depending on where you're from ^^). And I've been rather successful, a 25% roi so I've decided to share my reasoning here hoping discussion will help me improve those results and maybe helping someone to do the good bet!
Don't hesitate to make any proposition if you feel like you have a good opportunity!
First of all for people not used to regular betting, it's important to manage correctly your bankroll.
I'll update regularly my bankroll here in order to keep a history of it but the idea is the same overall. I manage my bankroll always the same way. I place all my bets as a fixed amount of average 5% of my bankroll at the beginning of the week.
For now my bankroll is of 1125 mB so my fixed bet is of 50mB. That's not exactly 5% but it makes everything much simpler to calculate.
So for this week every bet placed is of 50mB there is absolutely no exception for this rule. That's the most important point to win on the long run! Having a stable and rigorous way of managing your bankroll. There are numerous ways of managing your bankroll, mine is just one. But choose your method and keep to it
Jump to: