Topic: BFL 30GH delivered (Read 4576 times)

one more example

a roulette wheel pays 35-1 odds on a number bet.  usually there are 38 spots to bet.  Pretty even odds, enough vig for the house to make money.

now, if same wheel pays 10-1 odds it is a terrible bet even if you win 5 times in a row...  bad bet, good results

same wheel pays 100-1 odds it is a great bet even if you lose 5 times in a row... good bet, bad results


do not factor in the results on evaluating the bet.  You do not have control after placing the bet. That is all you can be judged on.


you understand now??

It's interesting this idea of correct moves (if it were a poker game I might agree). I think we have to look at motives as well. I for example placed a small BFL order about 2 months before they stopped selling FPGA - got my 5 units and have cleared ~9000 USD from selling coin they've made (in the last 14 months). I didn't hold any bitcoin (which I regret) simply selling it on a set schedule or whenever I thought the price was good. Except for the bitcoin I used to purchase sc upgrades for my fpga units.

From my perspective, skipping avalon (and asic miner) were wise choices on my part. At this point, with my FPGA stuff about to be upgraded (just 2 more weeks   ) I've got ROI of 300%. I also have the side effect of spending btc I mined to purchase pairs of nice video cards for my 3 computers, as well as a gpu rig (and that expense isn't in the numbers I've given here) I later sold the rig, and kept 3 7950s to use on the computers.

All told it's been a fun hobby over the past year... My total investment was less than 3500 USD.

As for your 'luck' in not purchasing avalon batch 3... I chose not to buy avalon because the tech was inferior and I didn't want to support it. I chose not to buy asicminer because the business model would result in a centralization of (imo) too much hash rate in one location if the succeeded (and I think it's bad for bitcoin in general).

I think the mistake a lot of people make is looking at investing as some sort of game of chance, with odds and using hindsight to evaluate decisions. If they'd take a more classical view - everything changes. 10 month ROI is amazing by investment standards. Using standard batch buying and the concept of drawing your investments down... you can ROI much much faster that simply buying miners and waiting for them to earn themselves out.

An example of drawing down a hardware investment is what I did with my GPU rig. I laid out 1800 bucks for the entire system, 5x 7950. I mined with them for about 5 weeks... then I sold 4 of the 5 cards (moved 1 to an existing machine) The left me with ~300 UDS in profit. My timing was good, about a month after I sold them people we suddenly turning of GPUs for bitcoin mining.

You could follow the same strategy with any asic gear, evaluate what it's earnings should be over a shorter time period. Buy much more than you're 'going to keep' and then sell some of the hardware over time so you end up ROI'd after a shorter period of time... on the hardware you have left. It's called risk management.

Money well spent has been well earned.
Awesome card. Get your high end gaming on man.

See,there ARE other smart folks out there     With my 3.3GH of vid cards & my BFL FPGA included,I'm making .80 BTC per day 

I'll be shutting my cards down in 2 weeks & selling a few of em to get a GTX 780 

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814130916

Now THATS ROI !!!!!!!!!! 

Love hearing this. I am in the same boat in that I paid for mine with funds from my initial BTC investment in the summer of 2011. To hear you're making .7 BTC a day is really cool.

1BTC=6.50$
you have 100BTC which you can
A. keep.
B.buy miner with

On one hand if BTC went down and 1BTC=1$

A.If you kept your 100 BTC  you are left with 100$.
B.If your miner did not mine 100BTC, but only 90 BTC altogether you are left with 90$.

both ways were bad and you lost money but still A was better than B



And on the other hand, if went up and 1 BTC=650USD ?

A.If you kept your 100 BTC  you have 65,000 USD
B.If your miner did not mine 100BTC, but only 90 BTC altogether you have 58,500 USD.

both ways were good and you earned money but still A was better than B


See?
It doesn't matter at all if BTC goes up or down.
It is all about how many BTC you can mine comparing to the amount of BTC you invested in the miner at the time of purchase.

Awesome to hear it.  Happy Mining!

Well,at the time,it was a good investment.BTC was $6 & I figured 30GH @ $650 was ok.

It still is a good deal,the device should make 100 BTC in about 200 days or less,if diff dosen't ramp up too quickly.

Personally,I nor anyone I know where able to predict the jump in BTC price would happen as soon as it did.I was thinking it would hit $100 by late 2014 or so.

But as far as ROI in dollars goes,it'll be 7-9 more days & its paid off  

Currently making .70 BTC per day  


BTW,I paid for my miner with BTC I mined since June 2011.My initial investment of $1000 has rolled over about 3 times at least  

Personally I would rather mine BTC than buy & hold,after ROI on miners is reached,each BTC costs me only the electricty to mine it.

If bitcoins go down, a miner might actually mine more, for example possibly other people might turn off their miners when bitcoin goes far down in value.

So having a miner instead of bitcoins can be a hedge against bitcoins going down in price. The more they go down the better chance there is that your miner will mine you more coins.

When bitcoins are going down, obtaining more bitcoins can help the total value of your collection of bitcoins to not go down so much.

To increase the value of your hoard of bitcoin you need the individual coins to go up in value or the number of coins you have to increase.

miners help the total number of coins you have to increase.

So it can seem to make some sense not to put all your wealth into bitcoins; putting some of it into bitcoin mining gear can seem reasonable.

When bitcoins dropped to $2 way back when, having a bunch of mining equipment instead of bitcoins probably seemed very good to some people.

-MarkM-

if you kept btc instead and don't sell till btc goes back to $1 then what??  you always sell at the top?  perhaps the buyer kept 70% of their btc as a hedge and used 30% for miners...  the 30% would represent higher risk/reward.  You can only base that decision at the time it was made.  Hindsight does not factor into it.  If you knew BFL were morons and still risk the btc then it was dumb move even if you got lucky...  if you did research and saw that they are solid company then it is good risk

what happens afterward is just second guessing.  only rate the move at the time it was made.

I decided in March that BFL were jackasses so I didn't place a minirig order.  I thought Avalon were good, but I didnt have btc for batch #3.   Hindsight says I am lucky that I didnt go for avalon batch #3.. but that doesn't mean the move was good.  It was lucky.  The correct move at that time was to risk on batch #3 from the data available..  but who knew they suck at handling problems and get lazy?

   

you are a clown....  if btc goes to $1 then he actually SAVED money then right?? when is you time of selling? when btc was $260 or now at $78? or can you predict next year's price?

A lot of people do not understand the difference between the probability of a result and the result itself. They see the result of a long shot coming in and say "See? I should have bet on it!!!". You can argue until you are blue in the face they shouldn't do it again and if they do it 100 times they will lose their shirt and they will never understand.

Finally! I hope your words will be more clear than mine, because I give up 

I actually figured out why so many people don't know how to calculate ROI for Bitcoin miners.
They don't believe that one can with certainty determine what a device is expected to produce in BTC at a certain difficulty. They are aware of "calculators" but do not understand why they work, nor do they trust them. They get hung up on luck, and trying to predict the future. They think calculating a devices expected return is black magic. So they don't do the math, and positive results are good luck and negative results are bad luck. They believe these things to be beyond human control.

For those who do not believe in magic:
Buying the miner is buying Bitcoin over time vs. buying the Bitcoin as a lump sum and holding it. Both are bets that the exchange rate will remain good or improve. Both are long bets on Bitcoin. It is possible to know with certainty which growth rates of difficulty will yield a positive return over a fixed time period and which ones will not.

Of course it is not possible to know at what rate the network will eventually grow at. However, you can build a graph of possible returns and look at what the network hash rate must do in order for an investment in mining equipment to generate a positive return. If the hash rate has to do very unlikely things (like shrink for 6 months) for your investment to generate a positive return, then you shouldn't buy the equipment. If you feel strongly about owning BTC, you should buy them from an exchange.

After the time has passed, you can know what the hash rate did. After the time has passed, you can with certainty know if buying Bitcoin over time was a better investment than buying it as a lump sum from an exchange. Beforehand you can know the probabilities of an investment paying off, like the odds at a blackjack table. Afterwards you know if a hand won or lost, but you can know beforehand if you should have bet on it or not.

I wish that was true, every time I receive a box from BFL I so eagerly look inside for a mug. I would really like one you know, but noooo, there is only that stupid Jalapeno inside.

Damn scammers...

I believe one or two come with every hardware order.  I know it was one with the Jalapeno for sure.  FPGA customers can say if this has always been the case.

I totally agree!


This whole argument started when I wrote this:




It is yet to determine if this is/was a great deal.
People here don't seem to realize that the only way of calculating the ROI
is if you minded more BTC that you could have just bought at the moment of buying the miner.
Why? because both options has the purpose of getting as much BTC as possible. One way could get you more than the other and one need to gamble.
Do you agree on that?

My point is that we don't know if OP did a great deal or not that's all....

This is not the same at all because BTC, oil and Apple are 3 different investment.
While buying BTC or buying a BTC miner is the same investment. investment in BTC.

Yep more or less. Its like saying you would've known the future outcome ahead of time, what simple math that is!

The oil price has increased heavily in the last years. You can tell start telling me now that through investing in Bitcoin miners, I might have lost the profits in oil investments.

That is the same kind of argument.


Yeah. Of course, that is simple. However you would also be right if you said "If you had invested in Apple stocks some years ago instead of... you would have more USD than before, simple math." It is just as nonsensical.

This is really simple.
If you buy a miner, you pay for it x worth of BTC. even if it is payed in USD it is still worth x BTC at the moment of purchase!
If the miner  mines less than x BTC alltogether than you lose because you could have bought x BTC instead of buying the miner.
This is a fact. It has nothing to do with assumptions, theories, feelings, subjective way of looking at the world. Just a very simple math.

And mostly it doesn't matter if when the mining is over, BTC worth a lot more USD (which means either way you earned USD)
or a lot less  (which means either way you lost USD).

x BTC is always bigger than "less than x BTC";

All I am saying is that only if op is able to mine more than 100BTC he had a good deal.

You should have bought Gold ten years ago, how could you buy stocks.

If you buy dollars now you have lost totally to euro conversion from 2008 when we once hit 1,50.

That is the only right way to look at it.




Those assumptions are worthless. The "would" assumption is simply a scenario comparison. From the point of time he made the decision, that is if he bought for $650 which was the asking price, he is making money. If the asking price was 100BTC at that time, I would agree. But that was the conversion price. Not the asking price.

And even then, it might not matter. Because it means he has lost something since he waited on something. Those are speculative costs that after all, could not even be in any way foreseen.

Yes yes, same ol' same ol' woulda coulda shoulda, we've been through this for what...a gajillion times already?

philips,

When you buy a minner, you want to earn as much BTC as possible (if you don't agree on this statement this discussion is pointless)


You have 650$ which can buy you 100BTC directly.

If you instead  buy a minner with these 650$ and mine less than 100BTC
it was a bad deal because the 650$ gave you less than 100BTC.

Care to explain why this is not the correct calculation?

Thanks

No, that is not the correct way to look at it, is just one way to look at it.

Sorry to ruin the party, but the correct way of looking at it is that you bought 30GH for 100BTC (because a year and 5 days ago 1BTC=$6.5);

You could have bought with your 650$ 100BTC instead.
If you ever profit more than 100BTC (which I really hope you do) then it will be a good/great deal

Good luck!

OHHH,wow did I misjudge him,I'm soooo sorry 

Well, every dude that has a BFL device must be a shill. It makes sense.

This guy is funny!!!!!!!!!! BFL is about as big a P.O.S. as bASIC was........................The freakin lies from october till Feb were insane,"just 2 more weeks" over & over & over.

I only kept my order cause I didn't see they were folding up & running & 30GH for $650 was a great deal 

How's THAT for a freakin BFL shill,you moron!!!!!!!!!!! 

congrats ... I see you got two mugs too. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_(medication)

stop bumping this thread faggots, it's clear the OP is a BFL paid shill

LOLS. BTW, how do you get a BFL mug?

man that unit sounds loud as heck

Congrats！

7/2/13? Nice!

Somethint in the words, I got it one year and five days after ordering, leads me to believe that he
ordered in the few remaining days of June 2012.  

What was the title of your winning entry?

Now I just want my single 30 forum contest prize !!

"WHAT'S IN THE BOX?..."

Yeah, I am pretty sure that is awful to be around a LittleSingle or a Single.
I can stand a Jally or two, but imagine God forbid...to be around a Minirig...oh, the horror  

I did Folding at home with my bro & some of our friends,we kept trying for the lead spot....came close once  

Yeah the rewards make it worthwhile,plus its something "geeky"  

Good luck gettin your jally  

Nice stuff.  Hope my Jally doesn't take a year to arrive.   Then again, I'm not exactly worried about ROI - I wasted enough electricity doing RC5 cracking for 10 years, at least mining BTC gives me some money back.

Мои поздравления!

Yeah,Its not that bad.Definitly louder than thier FPGA's.My 6970's in xfire @ 90% fan are louder.

I got up close so no one would be dissappointed,if they thought they were super quiet.

Curious what the 50/60GH units sounds like.

I may open it up in few days to check,but there is only 1 PCIExpress plugin on the back,so I don't think both boards have chips 

Congrats

That doesn't appear to be 'whisper quiet', but it maybe your proximity with mic. Is it bearable to be around?

They exist! Yes! 

Congrats... Can you peek inside... I would like to know if they have chips both sides of the board or have it loaded on one side, i.e. 1 heat sink/fan  or 2.

Not like only just release little to represent big? I'm still worried about this.

Hey what's in side that box? Any one have any pictures of what kind of cards are  inside the 25GH and 50GH boxes?

You don't know much about mining do you?? It's "hash dust"  

Personally,if anyone preordered after January,get a refund & go in on a Avalon group chip buy.I don't see BFL filling all preorders up to May by August,not unless they ramp up production to 400 units a day in the next 2 weeks.....................

Lovely!

You should honor your miner by dusting your desk 

Lucky you, enjoy. I'm still waiting for miiiiiiiiiiiine   

Congrats, Unacceptable. And i love the mugs.

mugs ? i see.
probably this is their main business,  they sell miners only for hobby  

however, besides jokes, congrats  

If you used Paypal you can get your order back, even if it is after 45 days.
Ask BFL for a refund and if they refuse then complain to Paypal.

damn . 1 year later .. and i made a order 16.04.2013 . *facepalm*

Thanks 

I upgraded 4 jallies to the 30GH in Oct 2012,when they were first offered.

They are really moving slow,like ole grampa in Petticote Junction      Good luck man 

Strange. I thought in 2012 there were only 60 Singles... And. Jalapenos of course...
??

Anyway congratulations. I ordered a 60 GH/s @ 9 July 2012. Not any sign yet

No I didn't promise anything,just proof that I finally got it  

Ordered 6/23/2012 #1825,shipped Friday 6/28/2013 7:30pm CST,recieved Monday 7/2/2013 1:00pm EST.Paid $129 for shipping,so 1 buissness day to ship.A bit high but it was only 1 workday,not including weekend of course.

I just got lucky firefop,had I kept all 4 jallies,I would have been mining 3 weeks ago  Best of luck bro 

Thanks K9 

I'm not the happiest camper with BFL,more later.After I come down from my ASIC high 

Grats on 0 more weeks! 

Congrats.  Haters may not agree, but coffee actually tastes just a bit better out of BFL mugs they day after your order arrives.

Oh yeah and congrats on the black box too.

congrats!

Now be happy with your easy ROI and pat yourself on the back for having the foresight to change your order into that =P

I'm still kicking myself for doing my upgrades to singles instead of 8packs of jallys. I just keep telling myself... 2 more weeks... 2 more weeks... 

maybe posting some info about when did you order. did you promise bfl to post pictures etc ?

Finally got it,1 year & 5 days to ship   Its here & I'm done waiting,on with my life  











Vid link:
http://s63.photobucket.com/user/Bigblock462/media/Profit%20calc/BFL%2030GH/BFL30GH_zps804f8204.mp4.html

Sorry to start a new thread,but I want folks to see & hear this.