Topic: Biden butchered hurricane Helene response & aftermath (Read 20 times)
I think Trump will win, he has more money. And his friends have more money.
Biden might have truly fucked up Kamala's path to Victory.
North Carolina and Georgia are truly suffering from Hurricane Helene aftermath. The whitehouse keeps saying they're giving the states everything they've got, and the media keeps telling that evacuation orders were in place and people didn't evacuate.
Literally the democratic agenda right now is to blame the dead while their families are suffering, and to say that $750 in disaster aid to survivors is "everything they've got" and congress should do better. Everything else, every criticism, is misinformation.
Clearly the Biden administration understands that everything is at stake and their tactic right now is to call their critics crazy. Which I believe is a very stupid thing to do when people are dying.
I'll give them that congress delaying to pass aid bills is ridiculous, but still their actions are very damning.
First of all, the federal response for previous hurricanes like Ida was much greater. 6 thousand national guard and 8 thousand coast guard troops were mobilized in 2021, some even proactively, to secure people on the ground.
Now for hurricane Helene Biden sent 1 thousand national guard troops after the hurricane had struck, and at a point where most of the missing were probably already dead...
So the real question is why wasn't there more action proactively from federal authorities especially when the path and magnitude of the hurricane was known days ahead.
Moreover, Biden has utilized his powers multiple times to send aid to Israel and Ukraine bypassing congress directly. It's very hypocritical to do this for other countries but seemingly give no fucks about your own people. Americans pointing this out aren't necessarily Trump supporters. Yet the paranoia of Democrats right now is trying to portray everyone saying this as crazy. So probably a lot of people that weren't even going to vote are now going to be motivated to punish the democrats.
I could make this into a separate thread also but I think it ties in well and I don't want to clutter the board.
So let's talk about Kamala's path to victory.
I'll be using https://www.270towin.com to draw the electoral map.
As you can see Nevada, Arizona Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia are all battleground states this year.
If we go by our theory that hurricane Helene aftermath is going to lead many locals in wanting to punish the Democrats, these states are lost for Kamala.
That doesn't get any candidate to 270 where they need to be to win. So we'll need to make more assumptions to see who's more likely to win.
Current polling data has Kamala slightly favored to win Wisconsin and Michigan
Kamala is also also favored to win Pennsylvania slightly based on current polls.
This could be enough to lead Kamala to a clear path to victory. Buuuut...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/19/nebraska-electoral-system-trump-win-election
Nebraska is considering making its electoral system so electors can't be split... This would give Trump all of Nebraska's electors. So a -1 for Kamala. Based on the above, that would land her in 269 electoral votes.
For some further fun, if Kamala doesn't win Pennsylvania, even if she wins Arizona and Nevada (unlikely), she'll be again be short of a few votes, even with an elector in Nebraska. In which case Trump may win with 270 electors sharp.
fivethirtyeight.com's simulations now give Kamala wins 55 times out of 100 times, whereas this number was considerably higher just some days earlier. So it really seems like Biden just made Kamala's life considerably harder.
North Carolina and Georgia are truly suffering from Hurricane Helene aftermath. The whitehouse keeps saying they're giving the states everything they've got, and the media keeps telling that evacuation orders were in place and people didn't evacuate.
Literally the democratic agenda right now is to blame the dead while their families are suffering, and to say that $750 in disaster aid to survivors is "everything they've got" and congress should do better. Everything else, every criticism, is misinformation.
Clearly the Biden administration understands that everything is at stake and their tactic right now is to call their critics crazy. Which I believe is a very stupid thing to do when people are dying.
I'll give them that congress delaying to pass aid bills is ridiculous, but still their actions are very damning.
First of all, the federal response for previous hurricanes like Ida was much greater. 6 thousand national guard and 8 thousand coast guard troops were mobilized in 2021, some even proactively, to secure people on the ground.
Now for hurricane Helene Biden sent 1 thousand national guard troops after the hurricane had struck, and at a point where most of the missing were probably already dead...
So the real question is why wasn't there more action proactively from federal authorities especially when the path and magnitude of the hurricane was known days ahead.
Moreover, Biden has utilized his powers multiple times to send aid to Israel and Ukraine bypassing congress directly. It's very hypocritical to do this for other countries but seemingly give no fucks about your own people. Americans pointing this out aren't necessarily Trump supporters. Yet the paranoia of Democrats right now is trying to portray everyone saying this as crazy. So probably a lot of people that weren't even going to vote are now going to be motivated to punish the democrats.
I could make this into a separate thread also but I think it ties in well and I don't want to clutter the board.
So let's talk about Kamala's path to victory.
I'll be using https://www.270towin.com to draw the electoral map.
As you can see Nevada, Arizona Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia are all battleground states this year.
If we go by our theory that hurricane Helene aftermath is going to lead many locals in wanting to punish the Democrats, these states are lost for Kamala.
That doesn't get any candidate to 270 where they need to be to win. So we'll need to make more assumptions to see who's more likely to win.
Current polling data has Kamala slightly favored to win Wisconsin and Michigan
Kamala is also also favored to win Pennsylvania slightly based on current polls.
This could be enough to lead Kamala to a clear path to victory. Buuuut...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/19/nebraska-electoral-system-trump-win-election
Nebraska is considering making its electoral system so electors can't be split... This would give Trump all of Nebraska's electors. So a -1 for Kamala. Based on the above, that would land her in 269 electoral votes.
For some further fun, if Kamala doesn't win Pennsylvania, even if she wins Arizona and Nevada (unlikely), she'll be again be short of a few votes, even with an elector in Nebraska. In which case Trump may win with 270 electors sharp.
fivethirtyeight.com's simulations now give Kamala wins 55 times out of 100 times, whereas this number was considerably higher just some days earlier. So it really seems like Biden just made Kamala's life considerably harder.
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