Topic: Bill Holter and Jim Sinclair: Gold $87000 per Ounce at Least (Read 641 times)

Go with Jim Rickards estimate as its far more conservative but still very high by todays standards.    An outright switch to gold is unlikely, we are talking about default in value occurring even while gold rises and obviously dollar likely falls in value with less purchasing power but an advantage to export I guess is one positive to it.
  So the main thing I can remember from Rickards talk through is about a 40% backing to gold exchange to any currency standard, that eases the demand for gold that occurs and lowers the price down to 10k or higher.   10k is enough for trade to continue where as presently gold is so low a price it would be unable to describe the trade done but both a higher price and that 40% backing allows a link to exist to a solid value in every trade especially between countries in global commerce.    Poor and failing currency is especially a difficulty where it causes a loss of confidence and reduces business done, then its a problem.   Right now we hear often how  QE is so stimulating to the economy, it'll reverse in sentiment at a point where the value lost is apparent.



Heres Dollar index over 20 business days recently and shows a loss of about 5% of value in that time.   Pretty volatile in the big scheme and considering its the global reserve currency.

Ohh, I agree with every word because the dollar has never been so unstable. Seriously, I just don’t have time to watch the dollar exchange rate, because it changes every 10 minutes. There are many reasons ... For example, anti-racist rallies and the coronavirus crisis influenced such a depreciation of the dollar and the crisis. This all left a mark on the global economy, but the United States turned out to be more vulnerable. I thought about this situation for a long time and I decided to transfer all my savings to gold. This is the only way out. I had over 250,000 dollars and I decided to buy gold bullion. I found a company that manufactures and sells bullions at a favorable rate and they made two small bullions for me. The exchange rate of gold does not change and gold remains the most stable currency at the moment. I hope that I have made the right choice.

Gold is very much a heavy asset, you have to take care of it.   BTC is virtual , I cant relate these two opposites.   One is not replacing the other, this is not a fight we need to worry about.   Most people have a gold wedding ring and thats it pretty much, what market is there to replace there.   Some countries its slightly more but most of the world wealth is hooked on dollar notes or similar.   I see both are growing in usage, not sure I can be as certain of anything else over my lifetime.


I thought people might appreciate this, physical assets have draw backs.   Any gold I have is unallocated and under a trustee holding in a vault, its not my problem on the security but its all a centralised system for sure.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/business/safe-deposit-box-theft.html

I'm not referring to gold in digital form, because that doesn't exist. It's physical gold I'm referring to and this is just as, if not, more decentralized than Bitcoin is. I thought it should be fairly obvious.

Bitcoin is already that. It's just so that people need to adjust to a state they start accepting it. I personally haven't ever seen Bitcoin as anything other than digital gold.

Bitcoin is the improved version of gold. It doesn't need to be super fast for that because not everyone is constantly trying to move gold from one to another address, that's just what speculators mainly do.

The thing is there could be any type of prediction in gold market and it will never change the reality of the fact that gold will never increase too much too quickly. Now you can assume a dollar pegged price and maybe even say 87k per ounce but the reality is that even if it reaches that price (it eventually will given enough years) the debt and all other metrics will change as well, by that time you will need 250k or 500k or whatever per ounce to do the same.

It means yeah it doesn't matter how high you predict gold will get, it will eventually get there, maybe it will take 10 years, maybe 50 but it will reach there however it will never recover all the debts of USA because that increases at the same time but with a faster rate as well, that is just a wrong calculation.

The thing with Bitcoin, its an active development and there is alot to discuss and some of it is new paradigms that the world has never experienced before.   Nobody really knows but gold is something unchanged in its dynamics for many thousands of years.

  What these people are calling out is the dollar situation, gold they have a belief will take over where weakness becomes apparent not just to them and a few others but the entire world and the vast populations of countries.   If ordinary people find gold now useful to them over a failure in paper value then of course the price rises, whats really happening is the paper diminished.  Like as if I value your house in diamonds or gravel, the quality decides the nominal number and the value could be equal.
   I'm just trying to outline, they arent exactly hyping gold as it doesnt do anything especially.  Its just a static object, what is there to hype really.

Biggest deal for gold was the invention of various powered mining vehicles in the last hundred years, none of that is especially recent.   That situation is fairly stable, the paper notes and debt scenarios that can play out are very unstable in potential and I agree with them on that.
   We dont then have to use gold but they see it as inevitable as its such a durable standard.   Its going to be that we see a dozen alternatives to paper and debt should that fail, decline rapidly.   SDR is one candidate waiting in the wings, I dont know it would be held by populations or just national banks but its not gold either way - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights


UK sold almost all its gold, it owns euros and soft assets.   France has a great deal of gold from its legacy of Gaullism's hard line policy on gold vs dollar going back to the 1960's.   Italy and Greece are horribly unbalanced but I'm sure I read Italy retains a good large amount of gold, some counterbalance to instability but also they need to leave Euro pretty much.
    We soon lurch into politics vs macro economics, it will take another ten years to play out no doubt.

I would not still see the use of gold in form of digital money as being a decentralized one, because gold is a metal that is still being controlled physically and digitally, every details or transactions through gold is being know and there no one with digital gold that cannot be traced, except people that keeps it in solid form which they have to keep away and hid secretly from the government, otherwise they will be exposed to investigation.

This will be the unique feature of crypto, especially bitcoin, when it eventually become the new digital gold in future and will be very useful to have as store of value that is why we need to continue to support bitcoin, because this is the only system that I truly believe to be decentralized fully without any IOTA OF DOUBT.

It depends. In some cases you might be right, but investment bias is an extremely powerful element where people go really far to protect their incentives.

We are biased to shill the crap out of Bitcoin, but so are these Gold bugs to shill the crap out of Gold. I find most of their predictions to be quite delusional based on how much economical mass Gold has at this stage, but that doesn't prevent them from calling certain levels per ounce. I find it rather fascinating to some degree.

That being said, Bitcoin shills can be just as delusional as we have seen. Not necessarily because of $1 million per Bitcoin value, but more so the time frame where people expect it to happen.

Those guys are GOLD INVESTORS.They want a gold price of 87K USD,so they are preaching about it.
That doesn't mean that it will happen.They are not analysts,because they can't be honest.
They are like the people who are paid to have a certain opinion.If a guy gets paid to have a certain point of view,you can't convince him to change his point of view.

I love the fact that these guys can just assume that gold will be covering all of the debt of USA for... no reason at all? Why would it? Right now, it is not covering that at all, not even close and it hasn't done that in YEARS so why would anyone think that 21 trillion will be covered with the gold USA has for some reason? Plus even if it does (and it won't) doesn't that mean there are less golds in other nations for that to happen and then price wouldn't cover their debts maybe? Like how much gold does UK have and how much debt do they have? Same with France, Germany, Italy, Greece and all other nations of the world? Do you think if gold was at 87k then all of the debt of everyone will be paid ever? I doubt that is the case. Hence I assume that will not happen at all.

I find metal shills as uninteresting as they must find cryto shills. People like this have been rolling out prediction like this for as long as I've been conscious. Can't see much sign of it myself.

I definitely appreciate the ability gold has to buy a house a few thousand years apart for a similar weight of gold. That's a neat trick. All the same I'll be dead soon so it's no use to me.

Good chart, I did not realise Golds move had placed it outside the bollinger band.   Going by the graph should it not always return back within that range.   So when bullish, it appears above the red line, close to the upper blue band and when bearish its moving between the red line and the lower blue band.
   To completely leave the range of BB would probably have alot of people wanting to take profits or even sell here I guess.     I dont normally use BB, I was hoping for 1,400 to become more of a support area but its probably going to take a while to hold and be seen to hold.

I noticed the other day gold share or mining prices were higher in the move from 2014 lows to 2015 peak then now  (full range BB is big swing I guess).    I didnt think that was the end of it exactly but not surprised its taken so long.   4 years later and gold price rises slightly above those prices and its a big deal, again its touched bottom BB and now above the top


Some describe the trillion dollar movements in Forex as a false market because its just changes in perception vs the old system where all currency held a line against gold and they purely counted trade balance and gold reserves for how likely a nation could keep its standing.
    If free markets work to destroy inefficiency then the whole drift and constant worry on FIAT values is one of those problems a market would normally 'fix' or destroy.    Economics is eclipsed by politics right now, I do not think we have a capitalist system.   The FIAT system is value set centrally and every other body, company, person is trying to adjust around that change every day.   The FED is constantly trying to ensure the market stays 'orderly' to allow inflation or devaluation of all privately held currency but only in a regular way such as 2% lost every year but in expected ways.   Disorderly would lead to a different system I think.

Forget the prices, my take is if the system is disorderly then we get change from this FIAT system.    I think natural dynamics causes this failure without any of us having to force it; the rain falling and causing a flood is not a malicious or unpredictable event but its able to change the landscape and I expect similar in economics also because ultimately it is a natural system.

I don't listen to gold bugs but I do listen to charts. From a supply/demand standpoint, something very important seems to be happening. Gold has been trading around a mode ~ $1,200-$1,300 for 6 years. It's now attempting range expansion above this 6-year range. If successful, years and years worth of sellers will be trapped below $1,300 which will create significant fuel for upside.

Price is already above the monthly Bollinger Bands; we just need some more follow-through and a strong close for the month of July. Then it's on like Donkey Kong. No need to speculate about new ATH yet. The first step is establishing a bull trend. One step at a time.

Some historical monthly BB range expansions, compared to the potential one happening now:

Gold has its merits, especially its ability to hold value for so long that it's considered as a bulletproof hedge against inflation and currency devaluation of some sort, but making a prediction with arbitrary numbers pulled out of thin air and claiming it as a mathematical certainty is just plain old sales talk from people who want to get their investments a nice little bump. Gold is a valuable asset due to a number of reasons, and no, I don't consider it as an investment that will make one rich within a span of a couple of years. No matter how much gold one hoards, in 10 years his net worth would still be worth the same, if not less, due to the slow movement of gold price--unless of course a series of hyperinflation scenarios hit the world.

Not saying that $87000 is an impossibility for gold, it's just highly improbable to happen within the next few decades.


Truth be told, it's the instability of fiat that makes other things susceptible to price adjustments without some important thing happening.

I understand this issue. But the problem here is that the interest rate for depositing banks is 8% - 10% per year and gold grows at such a rate or is only slightly higher than that rate.
Buying gold and hoarding is a good idea but it won't make you rich. You will stop at a stable life and without any great achievements.
I think you should spend that money to buy BTC and hold it until it increases to 50k $ will be better. because each year the value of the BTC will grow from 200% - 400% from now.

I understand the logic behind his prediction and it is completely rational.

 I have been interested in macro economic for a long time now and one thing that I know for sure that a lot of things does not make sense in traditional markets and they still do not make any sense . That does not stop these mathematical or just logical certainties to be proven right, I think this is largely because most of economics are manipulated by governments and big players.

I'm pro gold and I'll tell you the very boring truth, its not a growth asset.   Its not new, there is tons of it around and enough for 3 gold rings for every person on the planet is one estimate I read could be true.   So very simply what will happen is the value prior to any great move is roughly equal to the value afterwards, its a store of value not a productive investment.
The gold bug will tell you the move started 1971 I think (and ends with a major government default event etc) so it should adjust to value lost in dollar since then, which could be a very big price.   Of course its already moved some, many look at 1,400 and believe this is expensive but I agree with OP its not until we are into 5 figures then maybe

Its a dog chasing its tail to be arguing over dollar figures, we are talking about dollar having no proper fixed value so any figure can be floated.   Talk about corn or something, it'll get a bit more sense.




Also I would recommend you listen to Jim Rickards on gold, if only because he mentions crypto as currency etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4xpZm7JlqU&t=80s

I don't doubt that we are going to retest old highs, as governments simply can't turn of the printing presses. However, all real asset classes are going to go along for the ride, adjusting as well. Let's hope we never hit the numbers they mention here, as it would likely mean a complete breakdown in the system, which would lead to insane chaos.

People should understand that just like there are so called moon boys in the world of crypto, there similarly are moon boys in the world of precious metals. Another similarity is that we both support a decentralized form of money.

Overall, people regardless of what asset they own, are looking to hype up their bags-- the bias of our position is obvious just like how the bias of people not holding crypto is obvious.

I'm not a fan of precious metals myself but see what people who do like it see in it. Gold has established itself as money (being in a not so usable way), a store of value and safe haven in times of economical difficulties.

First of all, I'm not saying that this figure that they put out is an impossibility. It could well happen if there was to be hyperinflation; but the numbers that they've put out are completely arbitrary with no basis.


If you look at this statement, it's not entirely true.

They're completely ignoring any short term volatility. USD devaluing does not necessarily transfer dollar by dollar into gold. Otherwise, why has there been no apparent major movements in gold prices over the last few years, even a whole decade, despite CPI rising? Putting forth this oversimplified argument is definitely a trend in the majority of gold bugs, including the infamous Schiff. But it rarely pans out.

Also, they're not taking into account the demand for gold in the long run. Even if fiat does devalue by half, yet demand for gold decreases for whatever reason (which we are somewhat seeing since its store of value properties and status as a global reserve asset can now be substituted somewhat by cryptos), then the price will not trend exactly in the same way as inflation.

Predictions like these for gold I tend to ignore, despite there being merits for holding gold as a hedge still, because of how certain they make it seem. "Mathematical certainty", they say 

8 years aren't enough, usually, when folks invest in gold (or rather save money in gold) they do it for a 20-30 years period. If you consider the last decade Gold did 150%, and 500% the last 20 years. A scenario like in the OP could be possible IF we go back to the old system with the dollar backed by gold

Ugh...this happens every time the precious metals market moves up.  With gold hitting $1400/ounce, here come the wild predictions about it going to the moon--it's like 2011 all over again with this "legendary investor Jim Sinclair".

I stopped listening to hype like this a long time ago.  Gold and silver might be experiencing a nice little pop, but there's no telling whether that's going to be sustainable or not, just like with bitcoin.  And with the goldbugs, it doesn't matter if the price is going up, down, or sideways:  they always tell you the same thing.  Buy gold, it's only going to go higher.  And meanwhile, look at how lousy it's performed over the last 8 years.  Right now I wouldn't touch gold with a ten-foot pole.  Not even your ten-foot pole.

Legendary investor Jim Sinclair and his business partner Bill Holter say Gold is going much higher. It’s a mathematical certainty. Sinclair says, “You need to look at gold, not a speculation, but as a savings account. If the dollar gets sliced in half, you basically double the value (of your gold) if not more. I think much more.

In the second reset, that will take gold to a price where it will balance the ability to pay global debt. That’s the major move coming forward. Right now, we are definitely going back to the $1,850 and $1,925 area per ounce for gold.

The second reset, you can pick any price you want for gold. Pick a high price.” With the national debt officially at $22 trillion, and the additional “missing” $21 trillion discovered by Economics Professor Mark Skidmore at Michigan State University in 2017, you have a huge amount of debt and dollars floating around.

This fact makes Sinclair’s prediction of $50,000 per ounce gold a few years ago look conservative. Bill Holter has done the math and says it simply must go much higher.

Holter explains, “If you take the 8,300 tons the U.S. supposedly has, and I did this math last year when the official national debt was approaching $21 trillion, gold would need to be $87,000 per ounce to cover just the on books debt.

I am not talking about the “missing” money, not future guarantees, pensions, Social Security and things like that. So, the number is $87,000 per ounce for gold or multiples of that.


Click here to watch this video and to read more:

https://goldsilverliberty.blogspot.com/2019/07/bill-holter-and-jim-sinclair-gold-87000.html