Topic: Billionaires Quietly Preparing for Market Plunge (Read 1908 times)
What is 'quiet' about this? they have been running expensive shorts all year and are starting to get annoyed. there is a difference between happily being out of equities and needing the market to drop. it is pretty sad when you have to cheerlead retail. Collapsing time value, painful....extend or jawbone? Dividend-payers can go sideways for a good long time, if they drift higher, even better, but not necessary.
its all physcology... because of the fiat printing, the top 1% control the deck of cards, they simply play it the way they want to. So for now until people get uber bullish it wont happen. I still say dow 32k before the crash or something close to it... it should bring mom n pop and average joes looking for 100k forcasts looking at charts from 1980 and repeating. Ive been saying 32k since it was around 8k but couldnt get myself to invest because I still feel bitcoin is a better game, you know your enemies atleast.
The market has been overvalued for some time; the fact that they are all singing in unison now makes me wonder if they have some inside information on the direction of Fed policy.
It's much easier to time one's bets when one has a pipeline to the source. I'm speculating here, but you have to wonder.
It's much easier to time one's bets when one has a pipeline to the source. I'm speculating here, but you have to wonder.
The current market price is always at "fair" value.
It is the fiat that is usually over or under value in the short term which cause asset price to fluctuate wildly.
Part of the way they con you citing "facts" such as bolded above is to never use inflation adjusted numbers.
That statement is true in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars.
First of all you have to be very careful about whose measures of inflation you believe for this kind of a calculation. This is very important. www.shadowstats.com
Secondly, for any given starting and ending dates for an investment, whether you make a profit or lose is a random thing.
Third, at this time there is massive over investment in the stock market in order to get a basic return on investment, which cannot be done with savings. This over investment is due for a correction in my opinion.
Remember that at the very time that government wants to prevent capital flight, they will lie on every number, every statistic and try to prevent those funds from moving using a variety of tactics and slow-walking.
I'm always curious when people will take notice of news like this. The media like to just play it off as fear and doubt but those who are paying attention can see it's much more then that. These Billionaires make their fortunes from economies of the world so they aren't dumb, if anyting they should be looked at as the "canary in the coal mine" at this point.
The world itself noway but I'm not sure about the world as we've come to know it in the 21 century.
Don't worry ..rehypothecation is like economic recycling nowadays.The world won't end anytime soon 
The world itself noway but I'm not sure about the world as we've come to know it in the 21 century.
Don't worry ..rehypothecation is like economic recycling nowadays.The world won't end anytime soon
Part of the way they con you citing "facts" such as bolded above is to never use inflation adjusted numbers.
That statement is true in constant (inflation adjusted) dollars.
The bubble has been blown, getting quite full and turgid.Just look at the S&P ramp 2009-Present. Those who get out at the right time make a lot of money.Those who don't get out get 2001'd or 2008'd.That is the game (401K/IRA crowd always lose).
Those who buy S&P500 and hold long term (> 20 years) have always done well, historically. Yes there are ups and downs along the way, but for the vast majority of people, trying to time the markets is a losing proposition.
Part of the way they con you citing "facts" such as bolded above is to never use inflation adjusted numbers.
Funniest thing, during each of Argentina's hyperinflations it's stock market did quite well. Using those ways of calculating it.
4 billionaires - 3 Jewish and one guy who made his millions working for one of the Jews, all consummate insiders who might know less about how "the economy" works than a guy trying to sell houses in a Detroit suburb...
Sounds about right - let me study what they have to say, for they are surely out to dispense good financial advice to the chattel...
Sounds about right - let me study what they have to say, for they are surely out to dispense good financial advice to the chattel...
The market has been overvalued for some time; the fact that they are all singing in unison now makes me wonder if they have some inside information on the direction of Fed policy.
It's much easier to time one's bets when one has a pipeline to the source. I'm speculating here, but you have to wonder.
It's much easier to time one's bets when one has a pipeline to the source. I'm speculating here, but you have to wonder.
The current market price is always at "fair" value.
It is the fiat that is usually over or under value in the short term which cause asset price to fluctuate wildly.
The market has been overvalued for some time; the fact that they are all singing in unison now makes me wonder if they have some inside information on the direction of Fed policy.
It's much easier to time one's bets when one has a pipeline to the source. I'm speculating here, but you have to wonder.
It's much easier to time one's bets when one has a pipeline to the source. I'm speculating here, but you have to wonder.
The bubble has been blown, getting quite full and turgid.Just look at the S&P ramp 2009-Present. Those who get out at the right time make a lot of money.Those who don't get out get 2001'd or 2008'd.That is the game (401K/IRA crowd always lose).
Those who buy S&P500 and hold long term (> 20 years) have always done well, historically. Yes there are ups and downs along the way, but for the vast majority of people, trying to time the markets is a losing proposition.
The bubble has been blown, getting quite full and turgid.Just look at the S&P ramp 2009-Present. Those who get out at the right time make a lot of money.Those who don't get out get 2001'd or 2008'd.That is the game (401K/IRA crowd always lose).
US stocks are in a secular bull market and they are going way higher.
I dunno, with the market at all time highs already and a lot of the public still uneasy about the economy, I doubt that stocks will go much into overbought territory. I would be surprised if the S&P500 exceeds 2500 in the next few years.
US stocks are in a secular bull market and they are going way higher. However, I never buy into strength and taking profits into strength is always smart risk wise. Sept/Oct is often bearish for stocks, but I hope that I'm not too much of a pussy to buy into a large reaction in stocks.
A simple forecast of what corporate earnings will be with normalized interest rates shows their future. These companies are all riding on low rates, just like the FED wanted. That's going to come to a screeching halt.
Why? When central banks finally decide to raise rates, they are likely to do it very slowly and gradually.
then that would mean the economy would probably start sputtering a bit, which would reflect in the stock prices. my point is that artificial fed money and lower interest rates are in place in order to create an artificial "demand" which makes companies more valuable. the long-term trend is that the middle class is cratering, while the upper tier of earners is rising. weakening middle class = weakening economy = weakening stock market.
What evidence is there that the middle class is cratering?
In the US, we see income growth in all quintiles:
And in the developing world, we see hundreds of millions of people being lifted out of poverty into a new global middle class.
Rest is based on an assumed "income level". But also look at disposable income and net worth.
The website from which the chart was pulled, dshort.com, has numerous articles that support the point of view that "the middle class is cratering."
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Lance-Roberts-140903-Calling-It-Like-It-Is.php
Like all confidence tricks and magic tricks keep the people looking over here than looking over there. Something tells me that a major false flag is being positioned so that can be used to blame the economy imploding. I bet it will be a that missing plane with a nuclear weapon in it and it will be flown to a city and detonated over it. Then they will blame ISIS since they are everywhere and are so tyrannical.
then that would mean the economy would probably start sputtering a bit, which would reflect in the stock prices. my point is that artificial fed money and lower interest rates are in place in order to create an artificial "demand" which makes companies more valuable. the long-term trend is that the middle class is cratering, while the upper tier of earners is rising. weakening middle class = weakening economy = weakening stock market.
What evidence is there that the middle class is cratering?
In the US, we see income growth in all quintiles:
And in the developing world, we see hundreds of millions of people being lifted out of poverty into a new global middle class.
Quote
"The stock market is at an all-time, but economic activity is not at an all-time," explains billionaire investor Sam Zell to CNBC this morning, adding that, "every company that's missed has missed on the revenue side, which is a reflection that there's a demand issue; and when you got a demand issue it's hard to imagine the stock market at an all-time high." Zell said he is being very cautious adding to stocks and cutting some positions because "I don't remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people's thinking." Zell also discussed his view on Obama's Fed encouraging disparity and on tax inversions, but concludes, rather ominously, "this is the first time I ever remember where having cash isn't such a terrible thing." Zell's calls should not be shocking following George Soros. Stan Druckenmiller, and Carl Icahn's warnings that there is trouble ahead.
More good stuff...http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-03/icahn-soros-druckenmiller-and-now-zell-billionaires-are-all-quietly-preparing-market
This guy probably already position himself for correction and try to talk the market down.
If the market keep going up, he will be in a whoop of pain.
A simple forecast of what corporate earnings will be with normalized interest rates shows their future. These companies are all riding on low rates, just like the FED wanted. That's going to come to a screeching halt.
Why? When central banks finally decide to raise rates, they are likely to do it very slowly and gradually.
then that would mean the economy would probably start sputtering a bit, which would reflect in the stock prices. my point is that artificial fed money and lower interest rates are in place in order to create an artificial "demand" which makes companies more valuable. the long-term trend is that the middle class is cratering, while the upper tier of earners is rising. weakening middle class = weakening economy = weakening stock market.
A simple forecast of what corporate earnings will be with normalized interest rates shows their future. These companies are all riding on low rates, just like the FED wanted. That's going to come to a screeching halt.
Why? When central banks finally decide to raise rates, they are likely to do it very slowly and gradually.
Actually if you look at P/E ratio and similar ratios, the S&P500 is near historical averages in terms of these metrics. It's not overvalued like it was in 2000 and prior to other major crashes. The US market is at all time highs right now, but corporate earnings support these valuations.
A simple forecast of what corporate earnings will be with normalized interest rates shows their future. These companies are all riding on low rates, just like the FED wanted. That's going to come to a screeching halt. And with it, comes a halt to the profitability of many companies.Also higher rates will cause a restructuring of the real estate market. People that have $1000 per month will buy less house.
Actually if you look at P/E ratio and similar ratios, the S&P500 is near historical averages in terms of these metrics. It's not overvalued like it was in 2000 and prior to other major crashes. The US market is at all time highs right now, but corporate earnings support these valuations.
i've always thought this. with the fed pumping out all that money and creating artificial "demand," the stock market bubble seems about ready to pop. i don't know how the market could reach all-time highs when the economy is nowhere near there, as well as the middle class.
The stocks are pretty expensive right now... so experts might be right when they say that a market crash is very near. The P/E ratios are getting bigger and bigger, and I don't think this can be sustained in the long term. It will be hard on the global economy though, especially after the recession we had during the 2008/09 period.
Quote
"The stock market is at an all-time, but economic activity is not at an all-time," explains billionaire investor Sam Zell to CNBC this morning, adding that, "every company that's missed has missed on the revenue side, which is a reflection that there's a demand issue; and when you got a demand issue it's hard to imagine the stock market at an all-time high." Zell said he is being very cautious adding to stocks and cutting some positions because "I don't remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people's thinking." Zell also discussed his view on Obama's Fed encouraging disparity and on tax inversions, but concludes, rather ominously, "this is the first time I ever remember where having cash isn't such a terrible thing." Zell's calls should not be shocking following George Soros. Stan Druckenmiller, and Carl Icahn's warnings that there is trouble ahead.
More good stuff...http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-03/icahn-soros-druckenmiller-and-now-zell-billionaires-are-all-quietly-preparing-market
Jump to: