Topic: BitBet "BFL Will Deliver" bet resolving soon, how did you bet? (Read 3345 times)
I guess this thread is going to happen in every single forum section. See here.
Lemme get my pitchfork.
Maybe that's what he's thinking
It was a relatively balanced bet. So he probably expected to get 100BTC back (his 50 + 50 more). Instead he lost money.
Totally, that guy who bet 50BTC lost like 11 cents! Lemme get my pitchfork.
I just noticed that people lost money - even when betting on the right side!
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/
Have a look:
E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):
21-02-13 15:50 No 710 50.00000000 146mo 49.93600046 1FRBb
But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!
Is bitbet.us buggy?
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/
Have a look:
E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):
21-02-13 15:50 No 710 50.00000000 146mo 49.93600046 1FRBb
But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!
Is bitbet.us buggy?
It looks like the bets are really heavily weighted. In other words, the first people to enter their winning bets get a lot more than the last, for the same bet. It does seem rather unfair that the last few winning bets actually lost money. Maybe Milk could tweak the weighting formula in the future to prevent that from happening with relatively even bets like this.
Let me get this straight! If I would have bet 10 BTC and won, all I would have gotten back is my bit if it was in some weighted position? I understand the weight aspect, but getting back less than what's wager after winning is not an ideal outcome.
Doesn't betsofbitco.in take out 10% from the losing side though? For a relatively even-sided bet like this one that would be 4-5 times as much. And betsofbitco.in took like 5 days after the resolution date to pay off a winning bet I had with them which I was not amused about.
Bitbet has some room for improvement, but I still prefer them.
Bitbet has some room for improvement, but I still prefer them.
+1 no registration required at bitbet too.. I like that.
Plus all my winners have been with bitbet and all my losers with betsofbitcoin.in.
Doesn't betsofbitco.in take out 10% from the losing side though? For a relatively even-sided bet like this one that would be 4-5 times as much. And betsofbitco.in took like 5 days after the resolution date to pay off a winning bet I had with them which I was not amused about.
Bitbet has some room for improvement, but I still prefer them.
Bitbet has some room for improvement, but I still prefer them.
This is why I think betsofbitco.in is superior to bitbet.us. Early betters make more than late betters, but everybody is guaranteed to receive 100% of their initial bet, because betsofbitco.in takes the fee out of the losing side of the bets, not out of both sides.
Exactly. You should never lose money on a winning bet. bitbet.us should change their weighting algorithm imho.
This is why I think betsofbitco.in is superior to bitbet.us. Early betters make more than late betters, but everybody is guaranteed to receive 100% of their initial bet, because betsofbitco.in takes the fee out of the losing side of the bets, not out of both sides.
Absolutely. People who bet way back when should be rewarded because of the extra risk they took. Look at the dates of the ones that lost a little, they are quite close to the resolve date so they had more information to go on. Some people made out like a bandit, BTC510 = yummy
I just noticed that people lost money - even when betting on the right side!
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/
Have a look:
E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):
21-02-13 15:50 No 710 50.00000000 146mo 49.93600046 1FRBb
But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!
Is bitbet.us buggy?
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/
Have a look:
E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):
21-02-13 15:50 No 710 50.00000000 146mo 49.93600046 1FRBb
But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!
Is bitbet.us buggy?
It looks like the bets are really heavily weighted. In other words, the first people to enter their winning bets get a lot more than the last, for the same bet. It does seem rather unfair that the last few winning bets actually lost money. Maybe Milk could tweak the weighting formula in the future to prevent that from happening with relatively even bets like this.
Bets placed to late and paid back minus a handling fee?
No. Bet closed 22-02-2013. Those bets were in time.
Bets placed to late and paid back minus a handling fee?
I just noticed that people lost money - even when betting on the right side!
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/
Have a look:
E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):
21-02-13 15:50 No 710 50.00000000 146mo 49.93600046 1FRBb
But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!
Is bitbet.us buggy?
http://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-march-1st/
Have a look:
E.g. this guy placed 50 BTC on "No" (which was correct):
21-02-13 15:50 No 710 50.00000000 146mo 49.93600046 1FRBb
But instead of receiving something like 100 (50+50) he did not even make his wager back!
Is bitbet.us buggy?
Wow, a few people are about to make some serious coin! Mr 350, may I suggest you spend a fraction of your winnings on a nice Harley sportster 48?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/closed-2011-harley-davidson-sportster-48-forty-eight-142257
Or maybe step it up to the next level and get yourself in a Porsche?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sold-300-bitcoins-2007-porsche-cayman-s-8200-miles-143722
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/closed-2011-harley-davidson-sportster-48-forty-eight-142257
Or maybe step it up to the next level and get yourself in a Porsche?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sold-300-bitcoins-2007-porsche-cayman-s-8200-miles-143722
Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.
May I suggest that you bet against them at http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 (disclosure: I submitted it)
That bet runs until June 30. This one will pay sooner:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701
Betting closes in 4 days.
How long does it take those assholes to pay out though?
February 28, 2013, 11:11:53 PM
Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.
May I suggest that you bet against them at http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 (disclosure: I submitted it)
That bet runs until June 30. This one will pay sooner:
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701
Betting closes in 4 days.
February 28, 2013, 09:24:55 PM
Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.
May I suggest that you bet against them at http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 (disclosure: I submitted it)
February 28, 2013, 03:51:58 PM
Irregularities in the die pics they've recently posted have me considering betting against them and I never bet outside of a poker room.
February 28, 2013, 06:26:05 AM
Tempting... so tempting.
I think that bet was my suggestion... I'm sure others did too though.
February 28, 2013, 03:16:42 AM
Thank you BFL for some month with easy money 
I used betsofbitco.in and bitbet.us so far to bet against BFL.
As for April: Not so sure. I think BFL will ship their products in late April (well, if their design is not completely borked).
But this bet is so ambiguous ("Devices must be in scope of +-10% of advertised performance in order to be accepted as valid.") that it's suicide to place money on "yes".
I used betsofbitco.in and bitbet.us so far to bet against BFL.
As for April: Not so sure. I think BFL will ship their products in late April (well, if their design is not completely borked).
But this bet is so ambiguous ("Devices must be in scope of +-10% of advertised performance in order to be accepted as valid.") that it's suicide to place money on "yes".
February 28, 2013, 01:32:31 AM
Quote
Devices must be in scope of +-10% of advertised performance in order to be accepted as valid.
What is "performance", Gh/J? Or the devices have to be within +-10% for both Gh/s and power requirements?Either way, 10% isn't a huge margin and people betting in favor of BFL can lose even if the devices exceed specifications.
February 28, 2013, 12:06:10 AM
I bet 10 BTC.
Regrets to Josh or whoever that was to bet 500 BTC for "Yes" side.
Regrets to Josh or whoever that was to bet 500 BTC for "Yes" side.
February 27, 2013, 11:15:11 PM
This is me:
03-02-13 04:15 No 39`341 2.02100000 1EiN3 / 1KZvH
And I'm a BFL customer. I was just sure by then that their timeline was too optimistic. Now by the end of March? That's a more interesting bet. Right now I would say yes, around mid-March. If there are issues with the chips then it's anyone's guess though.
03-02-13 04:15 No 39`341 2.02100000 1EiN3 / 1KZvH
And I'm a BFL customer. I was just sure by then that their timeline was too optimistic. Now by the end of March? That's a more interesting bet. Right now I would say yes, around mid-March. If there are issues with the chips then it's anyone's guess though.
February 27, 2013, 10:44:34 PM
Tempting... so tempting.
February 27, 2013, 10:39:18 PM
When looking at this bet you have to keep in mind that anybody who thought BFL would deliver more likely gave their money to them rather than to take part in this bet.
So the consensus is actually much higher than 50%, which doesn't mean the majority isn't wrong...
This. So the consensus is actually much higher than 50%, which doesn't mean the majority isn't wrong...
February 27, 2013, 09:51:24 PM
When looking at this bet you have to keep in mind that anybody who thought BFL would deliver more likely gave their money to them rather than to take part in this bet.
So the consensus is actually much higher than 50%, which doesn't mean the majority isn't wrong...
So the consensus is actually much higher than 50%, which doesn't mean the majority isn't wrong...
February 27, 2013, 09:48:15 PM
bet 10BTC....and will not use my winnings to buy BFL uhhhh anything 
?
? February 27, 2013, 09:43:54 PM
BFL will deliver ASIC devices before March 1st
How much did you bet, and what will you do with your winnings?
How much did you bet, and what will you do with your winnings?
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