Topic: Bitcoin 2013-14 Historical Statistics Repeating itself? (Read 179 times)

IT always repeat and it looks like that it will be a tradition to all bitcoiners to get into this situation wherein they invest in bitcoin and at the end of the year is the peak season for bitcoin to increase its market price. Though constantly repeating some individuals still uncertain on their decision about putting their money on bitcoin. The good thing is that those who trusted are earning the most.

If we look at the 2013 peak and the subsequent crash, the recovery was not immediate. It took almost 4 years for the previous ATH to be reached again. Each and every bull run in Bitcoin's history has been followed by a crash (not to the previous levels), with a longer and longer recovery time. If this time is anything similar, we could wait a decade before $20k is reached again.

If we look at the bitcoin graph for the previous year, then we see that btc moves cyclically, growth - falling - flat, then the same cycle for the new one, but each time updating its historical highs

What we can surely say is 'we went to far from there'. Too many circumstances and technologies are changed. Of course, ongoing projects are growing and developing everyday, every time.
So I think we have nothing to say with the similarity of statistics

All statistics are not always a sure reference for future development. BTC, in 2013, was something only nerds and mafias used and knew. In 2017 BTC officially reach mainstream. It was not fully adopted but a lot of people heard about it. A lot of people also lost money/hope in it. Now for BTC to grow it needs widespread adoption from different communities. Whether most common people accepts it or not is something uncertain.

I am a bit confused about when BTC went from nearly 20K to 4400. I was just checking and see it dipped to 5800ish, but nothing below that. Did I miss a major dip / recovery or is the OPs information incorrect?

Bitcoin doesn't have to do anything. Since it is doing enough. You just cited some historical data but you want Bitcoin to do something? If you are a stickler to statistics then you should know by now that Bitcoin is resilient. It is not dictated by fake news sentiments.

maybe you need to check the charts again because you got almost everything wrong here!
- the bottom was $150 not $250
- the ATH was at the end of December and beginning of November (2013-12).
- the bottom was at January (2015-1)
- that makes the duration 1 year. 13 months if you like.
- the accumulation lasted about 8 months which was the start of the uptrend.

well if you want to stick to the same pattern first everything has to be the same which is obviously not.
we have already had the huge 72% drop and it only took 5 months not 13. so why should anything else be the same?

how about you giving us a reason why history should repeat?

first of all your vision is upside down
bitcoin was NEVER stable at $20k it was a hype bubble speculation period
the price after the $20k was not a crash. but was a correction of a hype bubble period. by which the price needed to settle back down.

secondly comparing 2017/8 to 2013/4/5 is flawed.

october 2013 2 big events happened
1. ASICS hit the market. this caused 3 price affcting factors
    a. cost of mining jumped from a basement dwellers hobby cost, to a industrial farm cost
    b. those hobbyiests couldnt just buy a GPU from a local store. so bought BTC to then buy ASICS
    c. those not wanting to farm using asics and unable to get btc via GPU's flippd from being miners to being btc buyser/holders
2. silk road closure and arrest international news. blasting out the words bitcoin alot. which got alot of people looking into "what is bitcoin"

start of 2014 the price dropped. this was due to MTGox. and all the fears around hundreds of thousands of users funds. which caused the long months of people asking "MTGOX wheres my coins" then others like cryptorush, cryptsy mintpal and others. and then bitstamp in 2015...

2015 also suffered the debates of the 1mb block barrier. which late 2015 the cor devs first suggestd a 2mb basblock and segwit..(yea thy back tracked)

...
anyway.. none of these events occured in 2017-2018 to cause the hype spike. and none of the big exchanges and other dramas of 2014/5 are causing the stagnation of 17/8

This is not history repeating itself.

The numbers are similar but the motivation for the activity is not. In 2013 we were dealing with Mt Gox falling apart and a significant volume of Bitcoin was held on that platform, so the loss of liquidity and the negative news (that a major bitcoin wallet and trading exchange was victim to internal fraud) drove the market way down.

Today we're not dealing with those factors. We're dealing with a general boredom or lack of interest in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin. Not much has fundamentally changed between 2017 and 2018, it's only that the hype is gone.

There are two ways we go from here...we start to build back interest in a slow and steady way due to market players realizing that cryptocurrency still has a valuable functional purpose in the world...or...we fade away.

What's it going to be?

Hi,

Bitcoin had a 78% decrease from 2013 all time high from around $1200 to $250. All time high for 2013 was on Nov 30th. To get to $250 boring volatility it took 1 and a half years and a further 6 months wait to see some uptrend totalling 2 years to wait to catch the slow bull train from the 1st train station stop. In summary this bear market lasted 2 years.

The 2017 crazy bull market started from May 1st 2017 from $1300 all the way to $20000 in Dec 2017 that took 8 months. This is 1438% increase. If we do get another bull run like this passing 20k all time high then new ATH will be $288000 in Dec 2021 then a repeat 78% retracement of this $over a quarter million figure? Isn't this bad health for bitcoin?

So using these statistics is it best to buy bitcoin at $4400 by boarding the 1st train stop departure in June 2019?

I know I will get a reply saying bitcoin's popularity and exposure wasn't as big in 2013-14 compared to now however can someone give me reasons why history wont repeat itself?

I know I will get another reply saying bitcoin died many times in past and survived however everyone knows this latest crash from 20k so how can bitcoin survive from this well exposed crash high from the sky?

Has the 78% crash from 20000 to 4400 scared the average public away to invest in it?

What must bitcoin do to gain the confidence from public again apart from lightning network and store door front logos appearing everywhere? Will it be the upcoming another economic recession like in 2007/8? Will average public able to afford bitcoin in a economic recession? Also how we stop average public driving up prices by 1438% in the future as it's not healthy growth.

My final question is how can bitcoin have a steady slow healthy growth without 78%'s retracements in its future?