Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022 | Bitcointalksearch.org

Chainsmokers

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Quote from: lucates on August 27, 2022, 12:55:25 PM

Quote from: Paul Pogba on May 08, 2022, 11:05:05 PM

If we compare bitcoin 2018 and 2022 we see almost the same trend, namely the price drops significantly after reaching ATH, of course there is still a lot of time to see if 2022 will repeat 2018, but I hope it doesn't happen again.

Even if a bitcoin crash is inevitable in both scenarios, a bull run is also there. Apart from fluctuations, its popularity and acceptance should be comparable in recent years. Every day, more businesses accept bitcoin. The total number of Bitcoin addresses almost tripled over the same period.

It is impossible for bitcoin to crash because bitcoin has donate or dominate a lot of cramp since it is is when mum and it is when pronounce as a digital currency that you can personally work on and the only thing daughter can subdue the reaction or the act of Bitcoin is when the market is not friendly as it is happening right now for that this only means you can say Bitcoin is irrelevant

after reaching new ATH in 2021, bitcoin experienced a dump or correction of up to -70%,
and the possibility of a correction that occurred this time is still not finished, considering the dump that occurred during 2017-2018 was at -83%,
and the possibility of bitcoin price in 2022 will be the same as 2018,
I'm sure after the bad news MTGOX Bitcoin price will drop again at least at $ 10k or $ 15k, which for sure we have to prepare funds to buy!

Fara Chan

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When viewed from the graph you share, the four -year cycle is real, where bitcoin gets ath in 2021, after that returns to the correction stage, even if recovery is only in a low range, so now .
If we follow the bitcoin trend like the chart you share.
But in reality, there are not many references to strengthen the cycle, althouch bitcoin's journey has such an impact, based on personal analysis, that power is actually strong

lucates

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Quote from: Paul Pogba on May 08, 2022, 11:05:05 PM

If we compare bitcoin 2018 and 2022 we see almost the same trend, namely the price drops significantly after reaching ATH, of course there is still a lot of time to see if 2022 will repeat 2018, but I hope it doesn't happen again.

Even if a bitcoin crash is inevitable in both scenarios, a bull run is also there. Apart from fluctuations, its popularity and acceptance should be comparable in recent years. Every day, more businesses accept bitcoin. The total number of Bitcoin addresses almost tripled over the same period.

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on May 11, 2022, 10:21:58 AM

Nice chart, glad to see a chart like this, looking also the other side. I wish I still have sMerit.

then you can check this:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/a20R05s5-Bitcoin-cycles/#tc8638840

i thought a lot of people were thinking like this here but came here and saw enough experienced noobs

FanEagle

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Quote from: Pujangga on June 17, 2022, 08:23:25 AM

What is happening with bitcoin today can be said to repeat the trend that happened in 2018, the market dropped more than 60% and made many investors panic and choose to sell at a low price, of course this is not a good choice but can reduce bigger losses .

Many people are saying that it is similar to 2018, but the reality is that it is not really similar outside of the crash. I mean in 2018 there was a logical reason for it to go down, because we had a ton of "fights" in the crypto world and some people sold bitcoin, we knew who sold it and why they sold it and it wasn't a repeatable thing and we just had to eat that and move on.

However, this time around it's just market movement and FED and recession that is causing it, so it is not really the same, it could repeat. So, I would say that it is even worse right now, not that it won't get better, of course it will get better, it just means that the same type of crash could happen at any moment because the reasons could be replicated again.

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Quote from: ShowOff on June 17, 2022, 12:43:59 PM

Quote from: livingfree on June 17, 2022, 08:02:42 AM

I'm not worried. The pandemic came and we're at a global recession still bitcoin at $20k sounds good. But I guess we're going to see a peek from the price of under $20k.

Lol, are you still saying $20K sounds good if the bitcoins you currently have in your wallet were bought for around $65K? Some people will definitely worry about this correction but if they knew how the market works then they would probably buy anything on a dip and do a DCA to maximize profit opportunities if the price bounces back.

That's the different case for me, I haven't bought during the peak and I've bought lower than it was right now. I've forgot to tell that and I know that there are others who have a bad situation because they've bought higher.

But I've just learned it through the process and that's why DCA is really an important move to do these days.

Quote from: ShowOff on June 17, 2022, 12:43:59 PM

Quote from: livingfree on June 17, 2022, 08:02:42 AM

It's like a matter of time only until we go back to under $20k which is very possible. The selling pressure is high and everyone's likely going to panic if it breaks that price below $20k.

Panic, selling pressure and worries will affect the psychology of the market. This will certainly have an impact on someone's interest in entering the market, but I can be sure that anyone who already understands how the crypto market works will decide to buy and hold for the long term.

Yes, that's for sure.

Those who have been watching the market closely won't let this opportunity pass. It's either they've bought already or still waiting for some confirmation if it goes lower than the $20k mark.

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Quote from: ShowOff on June 17, 2022, 12:43:59 PM

Quote from: livingfree on June 17, 2022, 08:02:42 AM

It's like a matter of time only until we go back to under $20k which is very possible. The selling pressure is high and everyone's likely going to panic if it breaks that price below $20k.

Panic, selling pressure and worries will affect the psychology of the market. This will certainly have an impact on someone's interest in entering the market, but I can be sure that anyone who already understands how the crypto market works will decide to buy and hold for the long term.

I actually consider this current situation is a perfect time to buy and fill our bag more. We are very certain that Bitcoin will recover someday and taking this chance is a great opportunity that we have to experience every 4-years cycle. I don't just focus on how the chart may close similar to the previous bear season and think that we follow the same path as I see that the mindset of the people had already changed. Maybe I was wrong but this bear season will never stay long unlike last 2018 - that I don't think we need to panic.

ShowOff

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Quote from: livingfree on June 17, 2022, 08:02:42 AM

I'm not worried. The pandemic came and we're at a global recession still bitcoin at $20k sounds good. But I guess we're going to see a peek from the price of under $20k.

Lol, are you still saying $20K sounds good if the bitcoins you currently have in your wallet were bought for around $65K? Some people will definitely worry about this correction but if they knew how the market works then they would probably buy anything on a dip and do a DCA to maximize profit opportunities if the price bounces back.

Quote from: livingfree on June 17, 2022, 08:02:42 AM

It's like a matter of time only until we go back to under $20k which is very possible. The selling pressure is high and everyone's likely going to panic if it breaks that price below $20k.

Panic, selling pressure and worries will affect the psychology of the market. This will certainly have an impact on someone's interest in entering the market, but I can be sure that anyone who already understands how the crypto market works will decide to buy and hold for the long term.

Pujangga

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What is happening with bitcoin today can be said to repeat the trend that happened in 2018, the market dropped more than 60% and made many investors panic and choose to sell at a low price, of course this is not a good choice but can reduce bigger losses .

livingfree

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I'm not worried. The pandemic came and we're at a global recession still bitcoin at $20k sounds good. But I guess we're going to see a peek from the price of under $20k.

It's like a matter of time only until we go back to under $20k which is very possible. The selling pressure is high and everyone's likely going to panic if it breaks that price below $20k.

wiss19

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Quote from: skarais on June 16, 2022, 05:55:17 AM

$20K won't be able to contain the panic and it's a weak support at the moment.

I don't know how people react to the market making similarities between 2018 and 2022, but it has happened, so I never thought it was a coincidence. Will we be at an 85% drop from ATH in 2022 and 2023?

Well, people got used to the drop before so they will not panic anymore and they know that btc can just recover on the right time but right now people seem to be more excited seeing this btc dipping because in their minds, they can now be able to got btc cheaply. We can't say that 20k is a weak support just yet because the price didn't fall under it but there's in fact a small recovery that happen. Pretty sure that people are overwhelmed when they figured out that there are similarities of the year 2018 and this current year. They will now have an idea if what to expect in the upcoming days, weeks, and so on..

Quote from: Semar Mesem on June 15, 2022, 11:32:22 PM

It can be said that there is the same pattern between bitcoin 2018 and 2022, I still remember last june 2018 selling bitcoin when the price was $6800 or dropped more than 60%, and the same price also happened today, bitcoin price dropped more than 60%. Will the price trend continue to follow as happened in 2018? worth waiting for.

Interesting but I hope that you didn't sell your bitcoins this time but instead what you are doing is buying more bitcoins. There are some evidence already that btc in 2018 and btc in 2022 looks the same so maybe this trend will continue.

peter0425

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Quote from: peter0425 on May 15, 2022, 09:55:22 PM

I want to see this happening lower than what expected at least 50% fall? that will be a largest discount for me as I have a ready funds to buy more from that dumping stage.

Bitcoin has already lost 55% of its value in six months, what 30% and from what mark are we talking about?

I mean just this year alone , the 50% fall from what is the starting value of 2022 , in which happening now and this is what I wanted and waiting for.

Quote

A good discount starts at 20,000 and below, and I see how many people are waiting for this price to start buying,

yups , as I already bought today , and will not expand my waiting for any low because that is greediness for me . this 20k is a Biggest discount i ever had this year from 2021.

Quote

the market may not meet the expectations of these buyers and go up. But the likelihood of a move to $20,000 still remains in the medium term, when we enter the final bearish phase, similar to the one that was observed in early 2019, when Bitcoin was 85% cheaper than its past ATH.

I can't say anything because I am already contented to what I gather now.

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Quote from: $crypto$ on June 16, 2022, 12:13:36 PM

Quote from: fzkto on June 16, 2022, 10:14:52 AM

Quote from: Desscount on June 16, 2022, 09:03:18 AM

really looks like mate!, wow this thread is really amazing, I appreciate this Bitcoin prediction,
if you look at 2018 it's also the same, Bitcoin price has dropped to $20k just like what you speculated,
hopefully this is the last bottom Bitcoin, let's go Bitcoin to $50k again! Grin

Panic has happened, but not as much as it was in 2018 and 2020, because there were large volumes then, and there have been no such volumes in the last few days. Likewise, there has not been a lot of buying now, which usually happens after a sell-off. There is also a big increase in bitcoin inflows to exchanges right now. There is likely to be more to come.

No, it won't happen like 2018 it will be very different from the current year the drop is now maybe $20k or below a little more the rest will not be as basic as 2018 for me predictions it won't happen.
I know there are more panicking than buying now but panic is not going to calm them down but my guess is that more people will stock up from now on to buy lower.
I'm sure some will be ready to buy from the bottom for the coming days and we'll see bigger volumes from this increase.

I think we may soon see the final panic, after which there are always large volumes of buying. Until such volumes appear, the fall in price may continue. Also note that bitcoins continue to flow into the exchanges, which are probably being moved there to sell. Another important indicator is the market capitalisation of Tether, which is declining rapidly, which may indicate that USDT is being moved into cash.

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Quote from: Zanab247 on June 16, 2022, 04:04:21 PM

Quote

really looks like mate!, wow this thread is really amazing, I appreciate this Bitcoin prediction,
if you look at 2018 it's also the same, Bitcoin price has dropped to $20k just like what you speculated,
hopefully this is the last bottom Bitcoin, let's go Bitcoin to $50k again!

Yes, that is the minimum bitcoin price will reach in this month of June before it will hit back to $50k for those that invested to start earning from their investment. I think the crypto market is still looking good for people to buy and hold because the price will definitely increase higher next month for long term investors to smile again. This bear market is coming to an end soon because the market price is changing gradually for people to start experiencing the bull market.

I like those of you who can still think positively with the current market conditions, we really have to believe in the future of Bitcoin. So don't hesitate
to buy Bitcoin at the current price, because the price of Bitcoin is already at a very low price right now. Besides, I think the bear market this year is
not as bad as what happened in 2018. Therefore, we should not panic about the current situation, and remain optimistic that the market will recover
in the near future. And hopefully your prediction is correct that next month the Bitcoin price will recover, but to return to the price of $50k like it still
takes much longer. According to my prediction by the end of this year Bitcoin can return to the price of $50k again and if that happens we can make
a big profit, because we have started buying Bitcoin from now on.

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really looks like mate!, wow this thread is really amazing, I appreciate this Bitcoin prediction,
if you look at 2018 it's also the same, Bitcoin price has dropped to $20k just like what you speculated,
hopefully this is the last bottom Bitcoin, let's go Bitcoin to $50k again!

Yes, that is the minimum bitcoin price will reach in this month of June before it will hit back to $50k for those that invested to start earning from their investment. I think the crypto market is still looking good for people to buy and hold because the price will definitely increase higher next month for long term investors to smile again. This bear market is coming to an end soon because the market price is changing gradually for people to start experiencing the bull market.

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The scary thing for me isn't the losses we just incurred, but the economic environment moving forward. Bitcoin has never been through a massive global recession before. As the economy melts down over the next 18 months, I find it hard to believe that Bitcoin will be able to maintain it's value. Especially considering where we are in the 4-year cycle. Does that mean sell? If you need to, but most of the damage has already been done. I'd advise people that managed to sell the top to start dollar cost averaging back into the market, but for those looking to speculate now that prices are lower... I'd urge you to not try and catch a falling knife, because things could get back if Bitcoin doesn't act as the safe haven during a recession that it's been billed as.

$crypto$

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Quote from: fzkto on June 16, 2022, 10:14:52 AM

Quote from: Desscount on June 16, 2022, 09:03:18 AM

really looks like mate!, wow this thread is really amazing, I appreciate this Bitcoin prediction,
if you look at 2018 it's also the same, Bitcoin price has dropped to $20k just like what you speculated,
hopefully this is the last bottom Bitcoin, let's go Bitcoin to $50k again! Grin

Panic has happened, but not as much as it was in 2018 and 2020, because there were large volumes then, and there have been no such volumes in the last few days. Likewise, there has not been a lot of buying now, which usually happens after a sell-off. There is also a big increase in bitcoin inflows to exchanges right now. There is likely to be more to come.

No, it won't happen like 2018 it will be very different from the current year the drop is now maybe $20k or below a little more the rest will not be as basic as 2018 for me predictions it won't happen.
I know there are more panicking than buying now but panic is not going to calm them down but my guess is that more people will stock up from now on to buy lower.
I'm sure some will be ready to buy from the bottom for the coming days and we'll see bigger volumes from this increase.

fzkto

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Quote from: Desscount on June 16, 2022, 09:03:18 AM

really looks like mate!, wow this thread is really amazing, I appreciate this Bitcoin prediction,
if you look at 2018 it's also the same, Bitcoin price has dropped to $20k just like what you speculated,
hopefully this is the last bottom Bitcoin, let's go Bitcoin to $50k again! Grin

Panic has happened, but not as much as it was in 2018 and 2020, because there were large volumes then, and there have been no such volumes in the last few days. Likewise, there has not been a lot of buying now, which usually happens after a sell-off. There is also a big increase in bitcoin inflows to exchanges right now. There is likely to be more to come.

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really looks like mate!, wow this thread is really amazing, I appreciate this Bitcoin prediction,
if you look at 2018 it's also the same, Bitcoin price has dropped to $20k just like what you speculated,
hopefully this is the last bottom Bitcoin, let's go Bitcoin to $50k again! Grin

skarais

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Quote from: Semar Mesem on June 15, 2022, 11:32:22 PM

It can be said that there is the same pattern between bitcoin 2018 and 2022, I still remember last june 2018 selling bitcoin when the price was $6800 or dropped more than 60%, and the same price also happened today, bitcoin price dropped more than 60%. Will the price trend continue to follow as happened in 2018? worth waiting for.

A repeat of the trading cycle as in 2018 is possible in 2022, the same is true for the ATH cycle which looks like a repeat between 2017 and 2021. I think a bigger drop for bitcoin this year is very likely, $20K won't be able to contain the panic and it's a weak support at the moment.

I don't know how people react to the market making similarities between 2018 and 2022, but it has happened, so I never thought it was a coincidence. Will we be at an 85% drop from ATH in 2022 and 2023?

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Quote from: Semar Mesem on June 15, 2022, 11:32:22 PM

It can be said that there is the same pattern between bitcoin 2018 and 2022, I still remember last june 2018 selling bitcoin when the price was $6800 or dropped more than 60%, and the same price also happened today, bitcoin price dropped more than 60%. Will the price trend continue to follow as happened in 2018? worth waiting for.

There are definitely some similarities, but I wouldn't say that it was the same pattern. But then again, we will have to look as well regarding the factors affecting the market crash. I can't recall what's the world economy that time in 2018 maybe we are in a recession, but definitely there was no pandemic and no war. And maybe this is a big influence to what will be the lowest price that we will see this year or in this bear market Could be lower that what the OP has predicted or just about right and it will be validated.

Semar Mesem

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It can be said that there is the same pattern between bitcoin 2018 and 2022, I still remember last june 2018 selling bitcoin when the price was $6800 or dropped more than 60%, and the same price also happened today, bitcoin price dropped more than 60%. Will the price trend continue to follow as happened in 2018? worth waiting for.

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Idea got well executed. Price reached $20,830. Wink

Sir Legend

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If we the history, there are many similarities between 2018 and 2022, many analysts believe that the 2018 trend will repeat itself in 2022 when the ATH occurred in december 2017 was around $19k but in 2018 it dropped to below $7000 or more than 50%, when it's happening the same thing i.e. ATH for the month of november 2021 is over $68k and the current price is around $29k or a drop of more than 50%.

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Quote from: Quidat on May 14, 2022, 05:43:08 PM

Quote from: Silberman on May 14, 2022, 11:42:01 AM

It seems that at least for now the downtrend has stabilized, however bitcoin is having problems going above the 30k level, before 30k was a support level and now it has become a resistance level, lets see if the bulls can increase their demand and make bitcoin to surpass that level as it is critical, if bitcoin remains below it for long this may cause yet another important drop in its price, which will bring yet another round of FUD and crash the markets again.

Im not really that confident when it comes to stabilization because anything or everything could really happen which would really be resulting into impulsive kind of selling or buying decisions.
Its not something new and been common and comparing out into those years between in the market then you couldnt really be sure if there would be some sort of pattern or not.
Everything is unpredictable and cant be known thats why its up to someones decisions and awareness on how they would really be making action.

You are right when you say that there is not any assurance that we are not going to see a massive drop like that again, however I think it was caused mostly by Terra Luna, now that things are clear the chances this will happen are lowered, also now many weak hands have sold their coins already and their coins are in stronger hands now, something that aid us as those people are not going to sell their coins so easily, with this in mind I think the chances the price goes down even further are reduced but they are not zero.

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Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

its almost there , we are now at 30% drop and seeing the market there might be more to come and if that happens then your prediction might be what we are waiting before buying it again.
so lets call this a waiting time and things will come in the right time .

I want to see this happening lower than what expected at least 50% fall? that will be a largest discount for me as I have a ready funds to buy more from that dumping stage.

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Quote from: lornadane on May 14, 2022, 12:48:02 AM

I don't know when this decline will end so that the chaotic situation disappears.
This situation makes us frustrated and crazy as if everything has been lost.
Many big investors end their lives because they are not mentally strong enough.

The current situation of the crypto market will only make naive crypto investors frustrated and crazy because the market always experience this situation after the ATH market. Besides, you ought to look into the evidence provided by the OP and this is what I always told some people that believe the Bitcoin market to receive a $100K price when the next step is a market correction.

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Quote from: Silberman on May 14, 2022, 11:42:01 AM

Quote from: RealMalatesta on May 13, 2022, 02:14:29 PM

Quote from: danherbias07 on May 13, 2022, 08:04:56 AM

Found this somewhere that compared the same year fluctuations, this is just better with graphs. Yes, the dump may not be over. The first wave upwards will be the investors who are waiting for their moment, maybe new ones who feel like this is it and purchased in a rush.
But there's a chance another dump may come for correction. The second wave upwards though could be the real deal and it will stay at a new price creating a new bottom. But whether buying now or later after another dump, both will surely be profitable.

I believe that what we are seeing right now would probably be something that will happen only once in a while and not that frequently, so another fall is unlikely. I am not saying that it can't go lower, it can but it wouldn't be this harsh anymore, it will be a lot less, like maybe 10-20% more but that's about it.

The trick is that when we start to go back up, it would be hard to calculate when it will stop, and that's not going to be easy, I personally do not know when it will start to go back up, but I know it will, yet I have zero clue about when it will start to go back down again after it goes up. If you know that, you are going to profit from the future.

It seems that at least for now the downtrend has stabilized, however bitcoin is having problems going above the 30k level, before 30k was a support level and now it has become a resistance level, lets see if the bulls can increase their demand and make bitcoin to surpass that level as it is critical, if bitcoin remains below it for long this may cause yet another important drop in its price, which will bring yet another round of FUD and crash the markets again.

Im not really that confident when it comes to stabilization because anything or everything could really happen which would really be resulting into impulsive kind of selling or buying decisions.
Its not something new and been common and comparing out into those years between in the market then you couldnt really be sure if there would be some sort of pattern or not.
Everything is unpredictable and cant be known thats why its up to someones decisions and awareness on how they would really be making action.

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Quote from: lornadane on May 14, 2022, 12:48:02 AM

I don't know when this decline will end so that the chaotic situation disappears.
This situation makes us frustrated and crazy as if everything has been lost.
Many big investors end their lives because they are not mentally strong enough.

This will be a conundrum that we will be facing because at the moment the cryptocurrency market reacts to other global financial markets and now we are in a situation where inflation is looming and everyone is expecting a financial crisis we cannot expect and invest in the cryptocurrency space thinking it would be a safe heaven apart from the fiat world. So it is a tricky situation and i am expecting it would take a long time to recover. Safe bet is always having the patience till the next halving Wink

.

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Quote from: TheGreatPython on May 14, 2022, 02:08:10 PM

Quote from: Sebas.tian on May 13, 2022, 05:08:04 AM

The decreased of bitcoin has caused a lot of panic to those sellers who are planning to sell their bitcoin in this month of May to improve their businesses and other things in the community. I think, it will be difficult for bitcoin price to hit $100,000 this year 2022, because the price has dropped to $27,000 that made many people to hold their coins not to experience losses from the market. I believe the price of bitcoin will not decrease more than $27,000 because the price is preparing to move back to $45,000 before the end of this month to allow people to recover from their losses they experienced from the market early this year.

What's with this month and why they picked up may? Is this a lucky year for building and improving a business and communities? I think they are new in investing because old investors don't have a specific month for selling but the month of may haven't ended yet, we are almost half way. They should have waited first before they sell.

To me, if there are a good month for selling, that will be November or December because this is usually the time where the price of btc rises. The price is so low and it makes us think that btc cant reach 100k anymore but we shouldn't think like that. Let us not forget that btc loves to make surprises.

No one knows why there must be a very drastic decline this month, we certainly don't panic with the current market crash. Because Bitcoin
has experienced a very deep decline in 2018, so for those who have experienced what happened in 2018, dealing with what happens in 2022 is easier.
In fact, I am still optimistic that the decline that occurred this month will not last long. I predict at the beginning of next month Bitcoin's performance
will slowly recover and finally at the end of this year at least Bitcoin can pump back to the price of $50k-$60k.

As you said usually in November and December Bitcoin performance often increases, and if we want to sell Bitcoin it is better at the end of the year
when the price is high. Selling Bitcoin right now just out of panic, will make us regret. So my advice is to be more patient as long as the market is
still in a bearish trend, because as long as we don't sell the Bitcoin that we have when the price is low, then we haven't experienced a loss.
I also agree that Bitcoin always surprises us, so we have to believe in the bright future of Bitcoin.

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Quote from: speedy963 on May 12, 2022, 09:26:07 AM

Great chart. Although not completely disregarding the possibility, I honestly thought a few weeks ago that it was quite impossible to get near let alone go below 35k but it did and just went lower and lower. Right now we are at 28k and about to go to lower again at 27k+. A couple of hours ago, we went as low as 26k+. This sell pressure is quite worrisome and as much as I hate it, your prediction may really happen. I just hope that when it does, a bounce will also follow to signal another bull run and not just another long term back and forth movements on several price ranges.

You were right about thinking it wouldn't happen, not because it is impossible but because we were talking about something expected vs what the reality brought which was unexpected and shocking thing. When something this big happens, it is normal to be unexpecting of such a thing. This is what crypto teaches us, even when everything shows one direction, we could go towards other direction if something unexpected happens.

Nobody expected Elon to write tweets about doge and take it from 3 cents to 71 cent neither, and yet that happened. If we accept that a good possibility could happen, then we need to realize that the bad one could happen as well.

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Quote from: Sebas.tian on May 13, 2022, 05:08:04 AM

The decreased of bitcoin has caused a lot of panic to those sellers who are planning to sell their bitcoin in this month of May to improve their businesses and other things in the community. I think, it will be difficult for bitcoin price to hit $100,000 this year 2022, because the price has dropped to $27,000 that made many people to hold their coins not to experience losses from the market. I believe the price of bitcoin will not decrease more than $27,000 because the price is preparing to move back to $45,000 before the end of this month to allow people to recover from their losses they experienced from the market early this year.

What's with this month and why they picked up may? Is this a lucky year for building and improving a business and communities? I think they are new in investing because old investors don't have a specific month for selling but the month of may haven't ended yet, we are almost half way. They should have waited first before they sell.

To me, if there are a good month for selling, that will be November or December because this is usually the time where the price of btc rises. The price is so low and it makes us think that btc cant reach 100k anymore but we shouldn't think like that. Let us not forget that btc loves to make surprises.

Silberman

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Quote from: RealMalatesta on May 13, 2022, 02:14:29 PM

Quote from: danherbias07 on May 13, 2022, 08:04:56 AM

Found this somewhere that compared the same year fluctuations, this is just better with graphs. Yes, the dump may not be over. The first wave upwards will be the investors who are waiting for their moment, maybe new ones who feel like this is it and purchased in a rush.
But there's a chance another dump may come for correction. The second wave upwards though could be the real deal and it will stay at a new price creating a new bottom. But whether buying now or later after another dump, both will surely be profitable.

I believe that what we are seeing right now would probably be something that will happen only once in a while and not that frequently, so another fall is unlikely. I am not saying that it can't go lower, it can but it wouldn't be this harsh anymore, it will be a lot less, like maybe 10-20% more but that's about it.

The trick is that when we start to go back up, it would be hard to calculate when it will stop, and that's not going to be easy, I personally do not know when it will start to go back up, but I know it will, yet I have zero clue about when it will start to go back down again after it goes up. If you know that, you are going to profit from the future.

It seems that at least for now the downtrend has stabilized, however bitcoin is having problems going above the 30k level, before 30k was a support level and now it has become a resistance level, lets see if the bulls can increase their demand and make bitcoin to surpass that level as it is critical, if bitcoin remains below it for long this may cause yet another important drop in its price, which will bring yet another round of FUD and crash the markets again.

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Quote from: gantez on May 13, 2022, 06:30:46 PM

I think panic buying is also coming in on the current situation of the market and that causing the large dropped of lately.

There's always a panic, whether it'd be buying or selling when times like this comes.

Quote from: gantez on May 13, 2022, 06:30:46 PM

Bitcoin always drop this way gradually when it starts to fall and more weak hand fear and panic to sell . This is making that the price of bitcoin losing a high percentage when it fall .

And when this comes, everyone must have understood that it won't be back to the high price yet. It will require another a lot of time before we see those ATHs that we've used to see before. It's going to be another round of waiting and this is where the good time to be far from charts if you're a holder that's starting to feel panic.

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Quote from: Sebas.tian on May 13, 2022, 05:08:04 AM

Quote

Bitcoin has dropped to $27k and has even touched $24k on Binance, of course this is a pain,
but the OP has provided very helpful information, and I thank you, we can see $20k will be Bitcoin's strongest support and we everyone hopes that,
but indeed if you want to take the risk, don't forget to put the stop loss and stay calm

The decreased of bitcoin has caused a lot of panic to those sellers who are planning to sell their bitcoin in this month of May to improve their businesses and other things in the community. I think, it will be difficult for bitcoin price to hit $100,000 this year 2022, because the price has dropped to $27,000 that made many people to hold their coins not to experience losses from the market. I believe the price of bitcoin will not decrease more than $27,000 because the price is preparing to move back to $45,000 before the end of this month to allow people to recover from their losses they experienced from the market early this year.

Currently, bitcoin is trading at $28.8k we have 15 days to the end of May and the distance from 28 to 27 is only 1 or 2 units apart.
I think bitcoin will most likely happen again even under $25k before it can bounce back. We definitely can't see $100k ATH this year. The market will continue to turn for the worse this year with upcoming Fed rate hikes, this year is a bear year only suitable for holding and accumulating rather than waiting for a bull season.

speedy963

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Quote from: lornadane on May 14, 2022, 12:48:02 AM

I don't know when this decline will end so that the chaotic situation disappears.
This situation makes us frustrated and crazy as if everything has been lost.
Many big investors end their lives because they are not mentally strong enough.

Indeed it does. Not just big investors but also the small ones that invested more than they can afford to lose. Although the warning "only invest money you can afford to lose" is always present and can easily be seen several times in this industry, some people just won't listen and still want to gamble with their money on crypto instead of being patient and more cautious. What's worse is that people does this mostly on meme coins or shitcoins just because of witnessing some hype or some random influencer shilling it. A tough and expensive price to pay for a valuable lesson in life. I just hope they do not end up giving up and actually ending their lives. As long as there is breath, there is hope.

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Quote from: gantez on May 13, 2022, 06:30:46 PM

Quote from: Yamifoud on May 13, 2022, 03:56:32 PM

Panic selling is the cause of the last 2018 huge drop and yes, I'd never see this activity which helps to keep the price still high.

I think panic buying is also coming in on the current situation of the market and that causing the large dropped of lately. Bitcoin always drop this way gradually when it starts to fall and more weak hand fear and panic to sell . This is making that the price of bitcoin losing a high percentage when it fall .

I don't know when this decline will end so that the chaotic situation disappears.
This situation makes us frustrated and crazy as if everything has been lost.
Many big investors end their lives because they are not mentally strong enough.

ultrloa

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Quote from: gantez on May 13, 2022, 06:30:46 PM

Quote from: Yamifoud on May 13, 2022, 03:56:32 PM

Panic selling is the cause of the last 2018 huge drop and yes, I'd never see this activity which helps to keep the price still high.

I think panic buying is also coming in on the current situation of the market and that causing the large dropped of lately. Bitcoin always drop this way gradually when it starts to fall and more weak hand fear and panic to sell . This is making that the price of bitcoin losing a high percentage when it fall .

I'm not surprised to see this scenario since in fact once there's a drop happen many newbie people think about the bearish times happen and they start to sell off. But what most important thing we need to see on how whales react on every market condition since from there we can actually picture out what will be the outcome in the day. Always see the news since this will help traders to know the market sentiments.

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Quote from: Yamifoud on May 13, 2022, 03:56:32 PM

Panic selling is the cause of the last 2018 huge drop and yes, I'd never see this activity which helps to keep the price still high.

I think panic buying is also coming in on the current situation of the market and that causing the large dropped of lately. Bitcoin always drop this way gradually when it starts to fall and more weak hand fear and panic to sell . This is making that the price of bitcoin losing a high percentage when it fall .

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I didn't see the market will turn like in 2018, not anymore for I know that people had already changed and learned from their mistakes 4 years ago. As I analyze the current market sentiment, many don't get fall with their emotion and worried too much. The price didn't move down fast which is a good thing to see and that is probably because there is no huge selling happened.

Panic selling is the cause of the last 2018 huge drop and yes, I'd never see this activity which helps to keep the price still high.

Natalim

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Quote from: romero121 on May 13, 2022, 03:28:15 PM

We're completely in a bear market. Same as that we're moving between 39k and $41k we'll experience between $28k and $31k for some time period. Maybe after that based on the momentum generated we'll see a change in the trend. Anyhow the second quarter of the year isn't gonna cross $50k based on the present market situation. For now it is time to hold, and experienced ones can make something out of scalping.

Definitely, there's no other way to do this time but to accumulate. We enjoyed the bull run last year, so now we should be prepared for a possible another huge dump, that's just part of the cycle, so there's nothing to worry about here. If the market gave us $20k below bitcoin price, it's still a great opportunity to buy as bitcoin never collapses completely, it's just normal volatility.

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We're completely in a bear market. Same as that we're moving between 39k and $41k we'll experience between $28k and $31k for some time period. Maybe after that based on the momentum generated we'll see a change in the trend. Anyhow the second quarter of the year isn't gonna cross $50k based on the present market situation. For now it is time to hold, and experienced ones can make something out of scalping.

barbara44

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Quote from: ?? on ??

But his price predication about 21k looks legit to me. I will not be surprised if this goes below the 20 k level. After UST and Luna crash everything seems possible to me and I also agree the famous quote "History repeat itself" is not true for crypto. I can see most of the altcoin also setting around -98%, down from its ATH and if BTC fall to 20k level all of them will go below that level too.

The first time I see this thread I almost don't agree with it but seeing the price still decays, I think I am slowly convinced by the OP. We had reached 25k recently and only a few more declines and we are now at the 21k but this seems to take some time because as we can see, the price returns to 28k again.

20k is not far from 21k so it is not really that surprising and even under 20k is still possible if the bears take it more seriously. Everyone is talking about ust and luna, and they blame that two for the recent dump but I think there are still other factors that made the situation more worst like FUDs, manipulation, more negative news and so on.

Jating

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Quote from: danherbias07 on May 13, 2022, 08:04:56 AM

Found this somewhere that compared the same year fluctuations, this is just better with graphs. Yes, the dump may not be over. The first wave upwards will be the investors who are waiting for their moment, maybe new ones who feel like this is it and purchased in a rush.
But there's a chance another dump may come for correction. The second wave upwards though could be the real deal and it will stay at a new price creating a new bottom. But whether buying now or later after another dump, both will surely be profitable.

Yeah, as much as we thought that the dump is over, maybe they are just resting, and the selloff might resume again on Monday.

On the technical side, Moving Averages still confirms that we are still in the downtrend on the weekly charts.

So we might revisit this sort of 'free-fall' area very soon. And the comparisons of chart might still hold true.

RealMalatesta

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Quote from: danherbias07 on May 13, 2022, 08:04:56 AM

Found this somewhere that compared the same year fluctuations, this is just better with graphs. Yes, the dump may not be over. The first wave upwards will be the investors who are waiting for their moment, maybe new ones who feel like this is it and purchased in a rush.
But there's a chance another dump may come for correction. The second wave upwards though could be the real deal and it will stay at a new price creating a new bottom. But whether buying now or later after another dump, both will surely be profitable.

I believe that what we are seeing right now would probably be something that will happen only once in a while and not that frequently, so another fall is unlikely. I am not saying that it can't go lower, it can but it wouldn't be this harsh anymore, it will be a lot less, like maybe 10-20% more but that's about it.

The trick is that when we start to go back up, it would be hard to calculate when it will stop, and that's not going to be easy, I personally do not know when it will start to go back up, but I know it will, yet I have zero clue about when it will start to go back down again after it goes up. If you know that, you are going to profit from the future.

danherbias07

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Found this somewhere that compared the same year fluctuations, this is just better with graphs. Yes, the dump may not be over. The first wave upwards will be the investors who are waiting for their moment, maybe new ones who feel like this is it and purchased in a rush.
But there's a chance another dump may come for correction. The second wave upwards though could be the real deal and it will stay at a new price creating a new bottom. But whether buying now or later after another dump, both will surely be profitable.

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Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

I have not figured it out and never anticipate the drops. Maybe not just me but I assume that many people never see its close similarity.
Yeah, we could expect more drops in the coming days but we can also possibly pump. Neither the two who come first I'm sure that nobody is able to see it in advance. This is the reason why I usually do not consider the past to happen again, not even to believe history repeats itself as I was very certain the people have already changed their trust and mindset towards crypto which affects the behavior of the market.

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Quote

Bitcoin has dropped to $27k and has even touched $24k on Binance, of course this is a pain,
but the OP has provided very helpful information, and I thank you, we can see $20k will be Bitcoin's strongest support and we everyone hopes that,
but indeed if you want to take the risk, don't forget to put the stop loss and stay calm

The decreased of bitcoin has caused a lot of panic to those sellers who are planning to sell their bitcoin in this month of May to improve their businesses and other things in the community. I think, it will be difficult for bitcoin price to hit $100,000 this year 2022, because the price has dropped to $27,000 that made many people to hold their coins not to experience losses from the market. I believe the price of bitcoin will not decrease more than $27,000 because the price is preparing to move back to $45,000 before the end of this month to allow people to recover from their losses they experienced from the market early this year.

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

Quote from: hugeblack on May 12, 2022, 04:57:32 AM

In general, I may need to recalculate after reading this topic in detail, but are there seriously chances of a drop below 26k?

It already dipped to $22k on KuCoin BTC/USDC pair.
$24.5k on Binance. Not sure what are you talking about.

speedy963

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Great chart. Although not completely disregarding the possibility, I honestly thought a few weeks ago that it was quite impossible to get near let alone go below 35k but it did and just went lower and lower. Right now we are at 28k and about to go to lower again at 27k+. A couple of hours ago, we went as low as 26k+. This sell pressure is quite worrisome and as much as I hate it, your prediction may really happen. I just hope that when it does, a bounce will also follow to signal another bull run and not just another long term back and forth movements on several price ranges.

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Bitcoin has dropped to $27k and has even touched $24k on Binance, of course this is a pain,
but the OP has provided very helpful information, and I thank you, we can see $20k will be Bitcoin's strongest support and we everyone hopes that,
but indeed if you want to take the risk, don't forget to put the stop loss and stay calm

hugeblack

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Quote from: ImThour on May 12, 2022, 12:04:50 AM

Glad you liked it. 200 Weekly Moving Average is at $21.8k and I am sure, we will touch that.
Gave you some sMerit though, haha.

This scenario in this topic started to scare me, so I hope it is not true, I still see that we did not complete the top of the cycle to talk about bear period (70%-80% correction) and therefore we test the bottom of 28k before there is a rapid rise to levels above 70k in 90 days.

In general, I may need to recalculate after reading this topic in detail, but are there seriously chances of a drop below 26k?

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 12, 2022, 04:33:57 AM

so a brief touch near 25k is in

I don't know, but it's here at 28k

philipma1957

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on May 08, 2022, 04:41:32 PM

40% drop right now would put Bitcoin at $20,000. That's the top of the previous cycle. Bitcoin never fell to the price level of the top of the previous cycle. Of course there's a first time for everything, but purely from the long-term trend, it is unlikely. The bottom of this cycle should be much higher than $20,000 - somewhere at $27-29,000. Maybe it will briefly touch $25,000 if there's some foreseen event that could cause such panic.

well we blew past 26k

25.3k on coin base and a few other exchanges.

so a brief touch near 25k is in

lets hope that is the bottom.

sunsilk

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Quote from: 19Nov16 on May 12, 2022, 04:01:56 AM

What I felt until May 2022 was worse than January to May 2018, at that time the market was still moving positively and Bitcoin only dropped around 20%, but in 2022 the price had dropped more than 50%, I only hoped that this large storm would soon end and The market can skyrocket again as happened in the end of 2021.

What happened in 2018 was much worse. But this year hasn't ended yet and maybe the worst scenario is yet to come.

With the recent plummet, if we're going to compare it from how it was like stable on $40k$-45k. There's sort of 50% slashed on the price and it could really go for more.

The exciting part should come by next week and if it hasn't recovered, it will totally shake the market and kick the weaklings out of it.

19Nov16

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What I felt until May 2022 was worse than January to May 2018, at that time the market was still moving positively and Bitcoin only dropped around 20%, but in 2022 the price had dropped more than 50%, I only hoped that this large storm would soon end and The market can skyrocket again as happened in the end of 2021.

justdimin

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Quote from: Silberman on May 11, 2022, 12:52:39 PM

It is not really that difficult if you have been in this position before, after all the people that bought their coins during the 2017 bull run are still having massive profits and even those that bought at the ATH back then still have a significant amount of profits, the ones that are worried are the ones for which this experience is new and that bought at prices way higher than what we are seeing now, but as long as you can hold your coins you will eventually have profits once again.

2017 is not the perfect example to give, or even saying that if you bought at the peak, you will still profit in the future. None of these matters when the prices are this low because people keep thinking I could have bought more than double the amount of bitcoins I could have bought if I just waited a bit longer and not bought when I did.

Instead, you could always praise DCA, which means you could buy at 68k, but average it down to under 45k if you buy the same amount at 30k, that way you will be getting to profit quicker, instead of calming down, suggest an alternative method to do something instead of doing nothing and waiting for it to go up again.

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

Quote from: GreatArkansas on May 11, 2022, 10:21:58 AM

Nice chart, glad to see a chart like this, looking also the other side. I wish I still have sMerit.

Btw, this is always possible, seems the strong support is the previous all-time-high the one before the huge bear season 2017-2018.
But we should also consider the volume we have now and the adoption of Bitcoin there are already some big players already positioned and I am also thinking if they will be able to let that happen where Bitcoin may reach some cheap price, but then again, everything is possible.

Glad you liked it. 200 Weekly Moving Average is at $21.8k and I am sure, we will touch that.
Gave you some sMerit though, haha.

Silberman

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Quote from: Lubang Bawah on May 09, 2022, 01:47:00 AM

The current price of bitcoin which is around $ 33k certainly surprised me, I did not think that the price continues to fall, the other side that makes me surprised is that at this time more and more countries open tenders to legalize bitcoin like Panama and the Republic of Central Africa, of course this has become a big test for us.

It is not really that difficult if you have been in this position before, after all the people that bought their coins during the 2017 bull run are still having massive profits and even those that bought at the ATH back then still have a significant amount of profits, the ones that are worried are the ones for which this experience is new and that bought at prices way higher than what we are seeing now, but as long as you can hold your coins you will eventually have profits once again.

fzkto

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I think this year is more like 2020 than 2018. Today's altcoin sell-off reminded me a lot of March 2020. And so far bitcoin has not dropped much yet. It's scary to imagine what will happen to the market if bitcoin drops to 20k as many are suggesting. Most likely 2022 will be different from 2018 and 2020. By the way, there is a two-year cycle of declines so far.

GreatArkansas

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Nice chart, glad to see a chart like this, looking also the other side. I wish I still have sMerit.

Btw, this is always possible, seems the strong support is the previous all-time-high the one before the huge bear season 2017-2018.
But we should also consider the volume we have now and the adoption of Bitcoin there are already some big players already positioned and I am also thinking if they will be able to let that happen where Bitcoin may reach some cheap price, but then again, everything is possible.

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

Quote from: el kaka22 on May 10, 2022, 02:26:35 PM

I 100% agree that it is similar now. I used to say that it wasn't that much similar, but now I agree that it is quite similar to that year. I know that we are not down 90% or something like that just like we were in 2018, but there are some coins which are down that much, and the ones who aren't down that much, aren't far off, and the drop may not be over just yet, maybe it will fall even more.

I remember 2018 and we were down from 20k to 3k levels in a week, it happened in a whole year, we were around 6*8k until November and then it dropped under 4k levels, so maybe after the summer we would have another strong fall, who says we won't? There is no way of knowing.

Glad someone is willing to accept that they were wrong in the past and now wants to follow the correct idea.
I made a post on 26th Jan 2022 saying BTC will touch the 200 Weekly moving average, I remember it was laughed off by "Legendary" members lol.
As always, I post what I see, IDC about others perspective. Let's see where we go.

el kaka22

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I 100% agree that it is similar now. I used to say that it wasn't that much similar, but now I agree that it is quite similar to that year. I know that we are not down 90% or something like that just like we were in 2018, but there are some coins which are down that much, and the ones who aren't down that much, aren't far off, and the drop may not be over just yet, maybe it will fall even more.

I remember 2018 and we were down from 20k to 3k levels in a week, it happened in a whole year, we were around 6*8k until November and then it dropped under 4k levels, so maybe after the summer we would have another strong fall, who says we won't? There is no way of knowing.

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Quote from: Lubang Bawah on May 09, 2022, 01:47:00 AM

The current price of bitcoin which is around $ 33k certainly surprised me, I did not think that the price continues to fall, the other side that makes me surprised is that at this time more and more countries open tenders to legalize bitcoin like Panama and the Republic of Central Africa, of course this has become a big test for us.

Just when we thought another country adopting BTC as legal tender and the price will go up, seem doesn't count now because in TA this bear is testing the lowest support in 2021. And if it breaks out, everybody might just jump out panicking to sell. This test is not for the holder with weak constitution.

The price this morning when I wake up I think was still $35k. Just think about it if this bear market continues another year before we see the light, how much will the price be?

Lubang Bawah

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The current price of bitcoin which is around $ 33k certainly surprised me, I did not think that the price continues to fall, the other side that makes me surprised is that at this time more and more countries open tenders to legalize bitcoin like Panama and the Republic of Central Africa, of course this has become a big test for us.

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.

last year people drew charts comparing bitcoin in 2017 with bitcoin in 2021 and expected price to reach all kinds of high prices all above $100k.
it didn't happen.

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

People are doing all here is just assumptions.
They don’t really see the real trend that Bitcoin is following.
Don’t know about the History, but when Bitcoins have fell the market, soon within shorter period of time it recovers and sometimes it breaks his all time high.
This might be the indication from Bitcoins to buy, as it’s the perfect time when Bitcoins will start pumping again.
I too don’t see much similarities between 2018 and 2022, but yes I feel Bitcoins will break the record this year.
Let’s see what other people think about my opinion.

pooya87

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I've said this a million times now and will repeat it again each time another person makes the same mistake again.
You don't get to compare the dump part if you are not comparing the rise part. The huge drops in 2018 happened because price had gone up 13233% you can't expect the same drops and claim the charts are the same while you haven't even looked at the whole cycle to see that this time price only went up about 2056%.

That is 11000% smaller.

This is how the rise part of the cycle looks in comparison:

Paul Pogba

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If we compare bitcoin 2018 and 2022 we see almost the same trend, namely the price drops significantly after reaching ATH, of course there is still a lot of time to see if 2022 will repeat 2018, but I hope it doesn't happen again.

Biodom

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Sorry, all of the predictions above may happen, indeed, which then would makes bitcoin just an oscillator (if at or below 20K happens).
It would violate ALL prior history, and would make this asset a stochastic one (random walk), diminishing it's future to a large degree.
I would dare to say that IF below 20K happens, then above 100K would NEVER happen.
The world would just move on to new things.

So, ladies and gents...buy..buy buy somewhere between 20K and current 33.7K or say bye-bye to it as an investment.
jmho

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.
Let's see how it executes in upcoming weeks.

40%? Is that expectation more likely to happen? Or is it simply because small portions of the chart are suggesting so? If Bitcoin is expected to lose 40% more of the price right, the price would still nosedive until lower than $20,000. To me, that's too low and this current bear market might not really pull us back to that price level. Or I hope so. But things are not looking good right now. Supports are broken as if they're the softest of all. So anything could happen. Let's see.

adaseb

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There were a lot of indicator that pointed bearish that year, it wasn’t only the MACD. What was brutal about 2018 is that most people were bullish. Many were expecting November 2018 to be the month where crypto will take off since it was usually a bullish month and the complete opposite happened.

Right now I don’t think anyone is bullish at $33K, so most likely it won’t break like everybody expects. However i the real battle will be when we get to the $28k area in a few months. If that breaks most likely the previous ATH will get tested.

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 10:28:08 AM

Quote from: Kemarit on May 08, 2022, 10:01:30 AM

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Though looking at the comparison, there's a higher chance that 2022 will form the same chart trend and that could be the best sign to know the bottom but of course its not guaranteed and hundred percent sure. I just confirmed that the history will repeat itself because of this chart, I'll stay put for now while waiting for the bottom price, the market will rise again for sure and for you to enjoy that better to buy during bear market.

STT

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 10:28:08 AM

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Its not possible in an absolute way but you can determine when there is a strong trend and when volume is lacking for example. If we repeatedly attempt but fail to pass a point it can be surmised as a reason to consider we might be encountering a point where the market might turn. The 2018 low came year end into a time of holidays and possibly reduced volume in that time, price can go anywhere but the quality of trading action varies. Right now price is near to the year low, it cant be said to be everything but its worth noting how we react to the recent low prices.

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.

last year people drew charts comparing bitcoin in 2017 with bitcoin in 2021 and expected price to reach all kinds of high prices all above $100k.
it didn't happen.

Predictions and TA is always shamed by the BTC market.

Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

The cycle repeats itself but of course in a different pattern. Whether history repeats or not depends on the subject being presented.

, In the case of Bitcoin market cycle history it does repeat several times now.

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on May 08, 2022, 04:41:32 PM

40% drop right now would put Bitcoin at $20,000.

Would be a great Bitcoin sale price of the year if that happens

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on May 08, 2022, 04:41:32 PM

That's the top of the previous cycle. Bitcoin never fell to the price level of the top of the previous cycle. Of course there's a first time for everything, but purely from the long-term trend, it is unlikely. The bottom of this cycle should be much higher than $20,000 - somewhere at $27-29,000. Maybe it will briefly touch $25,000 if there's some foreseen event that could cause such panic.

It is too early to tell where the bottom of this bear market is since the Bitcoin price is greatly affected by the upcoming events and prediction is easily nullified if there is a piece of strong news or events that can have a great impact on the Bitcoin demand.

Quote from: stomachgrowls on May 08, 2022, 12:40:09 PM

Whether these indicators could really be that precise or not(always) then let's just be prepared and make ourselves ready on getting in on that possible bottom or you do make yourself ready to catch on.

Best to accumulate Bitcoin when many holders is panic selling.

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40% drop right now would put Bitcoin at $20,000. That's the top of the previous cycle. Bitcoin never fell to the price level of the top of the previous cycle. Of course there's a first time for everything, but purely from the long-term trend, it is unlikely. The bottom of this cycle should be much higher than $20,000 - somewhere at $27-29,000. Maybe it will briefly touch $25,000 if there's some foreseen event that could cause such panic.

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The 2022 market is much more mature than it was in 2018. Right now there are more investors (especially institutional ones), more traders, more merchants, more social promoters, more gamblers... All these factors contribute for raising the support level of bitcoin, so we can expect smoother and smoother corrections along the time. 40% looks too much considering those currently market conditions.

So far bitcoin has dropped about 14% since the last stable price in the 39,000$'s range. Next days must be decisive.

However, things can get really bad for bitcoin once US Federal Reserve increases interest rates again (it's expected). On that case I believe a sharp correction could happen leading bitcoin to the mentioned 40% decline in price, although it's a real chaotic possibility, worst of the cases.

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Quote from: cabron on May 08, 2022, 11:56:33 AM

40% dip which $25K may not be the very bottom of it scares the moon bois for sure. I'm wondering what other indicators have OP been using that provides same signal besides the MACD?

It took a year from $20K in 2018 to dip to its bottom in 2019 on $3k. This month of May is also a year since its $62K peak. I'm just thinking maybe the cycle will change this time as it hasn't break that $30K support. That may be the signal to wait before turning the coins to stablecoin.

Questions would really boggled up our mind considering that we could really make out some patterns basing on previous high and lows but it's true that the price is really still tanking in 30k+ price but still not an assured thing since everything could really make out some breakout of support which is something very plausible on this market.

Whether these indicators could really be that precise or not(always) then let's just be prepared and make ourselves ready on getting in on that possible bottom or you do make yourself ready to catch on.

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40% dip which $25K may not be the very bottom of it scares the moon bois for sure. I'm wondering what other indicators have OP been using that provides same signal besides the MACD?

It took a year from $20K in 2018 to dip to its bottom in 2019 on $3k. This month of May is also a year since its $62K peak. I'm just thinking maybe the cycle will change this time as it hasn't break that $30K support. That may be the signal to wait before turning the coins to stablecoin.

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Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 11:15:02 AM

to see if 2018 and 2022 are common or not. I bet, it is.

i don't think you read my post so i say again: 2017 and 2021 were also looking identical at the time yet the peak didn't form.

price is falling, and it may fall a lot more but it will not be because of repetition of some pattern. it is all about the current ongoing crisis in the world in energy and food that gets worse every day. as long as that crisis is ongoing and people are panic selling, we continue seeing a bear market and as soon as the crisis ends or panic sell stops things will reverse.

we had the same in 2020 when a virus crisis started and people started panic selling and it only ended as soon as the panic sell ended before the crisis even began to end!

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

You surely need to go through my charts here at https://www.tradingview.com/u/ImThour/ to see if 2018 and 2022 are common or not. I bet, it is.
I am not interested to post details here or prove it.

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Quote from: Kemarit on May 08, 2022, 10:01:30 AM

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

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Quote from: Nivia1st on May 08, 2022, 09:29:17 AM

if you look at it, it's like 2018 but I think it's more accurate like last year's chart. last year in the same month the price fell to 30,000 due to news about the ban on mining in china. and right now the crypto market is crashing because of the FED and war news. crashes occur because of bad news, and after the impact of the news wears off, prices start to rise again. I think this year will also be the same, if the impact of all the negative news subsides the price will rise again.

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

And I do agree that the FED rate hike and the war news have a huge impact in the price and this could have a long term effect specially if the war continues late this year. So it's going to be very difficult for the price to have a good bounce this 2022.

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if you look at it, it's like 2018 but I think it's more accurate like last year's chart. last year in the same month the price fell to 30,000 due to news about the ban on mining in china. and right now the crypto market is crashing because of the FED and war news. crashes occur because of bad news, and after the impact of the news wears off, prices start to rise again. I think this year will also be the same, if the impact of all the negative news subsides the price will rise again.

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on May 08, 2022, 09:13:59 AM

I think firstly, we all need to concede that we are in a bear market now. Anybody still hanging on to the hope we hit $100,000 or more THIS year is a deluded moon boi. We will hit $100,000 & much higher, just not this year. As somebody who’s been through multiple bull & bear markets, what we are seeing now is expected. I think you’re right OP, we will go lower. My prediction is something like $25,000 as the absolute bottom of this cycle. $69,420 was the top, which was not a blow off top. We can predict something like $25,000 as a bottom then as no blow off top = presumably no 80% crash from $69,420.

Happy dip buying

Yeah, me as well or at least a couple of months ago thinks that we are in a bear market already. I don't want to argue with others who think that we can bounce back to $40k-$50k before the end of the year because for me it's not going to happen.

So it's better to preach buying the dip right now, maybe we can see $25k or even our previous ath of $20k in 2017 that could be the absolute bottom for me.

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I think firstly, we all need to concede that we are in a bear market now. Anybody still hanging on to the hope we hit $100,000 or more THIS year is a deluded moon boi. We will hit $100,000 & much higher, just not this year. As somebody who’s been through multiple bull & bear markets, what we are seeing now is expected. I think you’re right OP, we will go lower. My prediction is something like $25,000 as the absolute bottom of this cycle. $69,420 was the top, which was not a blow off top. We can predict something like $25,000 as a bottom then as no blow off top = presumably no 80% crash from $69,420.

Happy dip buying

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Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.

last year people drew charts comparing bitcoin in 2017 with bitcoin in 2021 and expected price to reach all kinds of high prices all above $100k.
it didn't happen.

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

EDIT: Idea got well executed. Price reached $20,830. Wink

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

In this chart, you can clearly see how Bitcoin fell almost 40% on every sell signal on MACD.

As you can see on the left, 2018 had 3 signals from ATH, 2 Sells and 1 Buy.
Something similar has happened now with Bitcoin: 3 Signals, 2 Sells and 1 Buy.

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.
Let's see how it executes in upcoming weeks.

Topic: Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022 (Read 822 times)