Topic: Bitcoin 4-year cycle is it real? Probable end year rally for Bitcoin (Read 628 times)

Additonal explanation about the 4 year cycle  by Bob Loukas

The Next 4-Year Cycle Started

Bitcoin 4 Year Journey - The Right HODL Allocation


It is very interesting how can his position regarding the strategy he is discussing will end.  So far his position is on the positive from $100k worth of BTC during that time and now it is around $200k.   This is kinda educational because he is practically discussing and actually performing the discussed strategy.

I think that it is likely that the existence of Bitcoin can fit into the concept of a four-year cycle proposed by the author. I believe that this may well reflect the existing reality and this means that 2019 may be the year of the beginning of the next cycle. At least it looks like the truth.

Considering that the bearish market started right after Bitcoin's all time high which is December we aren't exactly a year past it by now as we are about 4 months behind from your current prediction. 16 months in a bear market just confirms as that the 4 year cycle you are talking about is not true for the most part, although I am willing to test it out as this could just be an extended bear market and we might see BTC go up anytime soon as BTC unlike before is steadily going back up above in a good fashion.

That's definitely true, but the BCash bet was more related to Jihan and his right hand over at Bitmain (which Jihan paid the price for as he got booted from his head position), while their current plan to deploy an insane number of miners seems to be more of a smart business move based on internal consensus, where on top of that, you can't really go wrong with Bitcoin.

Of course, this isn't a guarantee that it will pay off would the market fall down below its current low, but you have to take that risk at the end of the day. China's cheap energy season very likely is an important factor for their plan, so they at least have a financial advantage here.

I think that cycle is going to repeat and bitcoin will reach new ATH
Current biggest hurdle is 6k$ if btc will break 6k$ will be one big buy signal
And until that price btc will grow little by little
But 4500k will  cause positive impact
I expect first attempt to break 4500$ will be rejected but if btc will defend 4150  than next target will be 5500$ to 6000$

Price will be supported by more institution coming and infrastructure developed

Institutions adopting the blockchain as technology isn't really that bullish for crypto in general because it always concerns private blockchains. This whole blockchain thing is stupid and not even worth the hype it enjoys.

Institutions say yes to blockchain, but are very skeptical about our decentralized crypto currencies, while the innovation lies in the decentralized crypto currencies and not the blockchain itself.

That also means saying welcome back to higher fees. More needs to happen in order to prevent the network from clogging up. I hope Schnorr will help free up some block space, but when will it be released? This year? Next year?

I agree. It could take more time as well. Many are expecting a 2015-like reversal in Q3 or Q4 based on past performance, but I think it's a tossup. This early in an accumulation phase, it's impossible to tell. In fact, it's too early to even call it an accumulation phase since we haven't established a bottom range like 2015 and we certainly haven't broken above it. Everyone is just assuming we will. Mid-2018 had the potential to be an accumulation phase too, but we know now it wasn't.

Wyckoff is the basis for my long term view as well. I like to see some confirmation of an accumulation/distribution schematic before projecting too far into the future. Repeating the 2015 model is possible but we'll probably see some deviation.

i think you might have zoomed out of the charts too much because you can not call a 500% rise in 2 years an "accumulation"! price started at $200 with lowest at $150 and went up to $900ish by 2017 which is the 500% rise which you call "accumulation" but that was actually part of the bull run. the "accumulation" stage only lasted a couple of months in 2015 where price (similar to now) was stable at $220 to $240 range.

I see it from the speculative point of view based on the philosophy of Wyckoff, and is that the bitcoin in 2014 began its accumulation stage until 2017 when it began its bullish trend phase, then the range that many see is 4 years , this does not mean that it should be repeated, because we are currently in the second phase of accumulation of the bitcoin, where we do not know how long it takes to accumulate the bitcoins to prepare to rise in price.

Some claim that it will last the same time, but you have to take into account the high volatility of the market, and that some times may vary, it may not last for 3 or 4 years, it may take less time to find your bullish trend again.

You rightly noted that previous performance is not a guarantee for future performance. But it does  sounds reasonable to expect the market to go bullish this year. We are seeing so much interests from institutions ,adopting the block chain technology, also retail is growing significantly( bitcoin transaction counts are near those of the bull market)

I don't seem to understand what you are trying to talk about but I am assuming that you are talking about the bitcoin halves that happens every 4 years in the bitcoin blockchain that makes the mining reward lesser thereby increasing the hashing difficulty of the coin.

Once we see an halve in the bitcoin network, we are likely to see a growth in the price of the coin because the halves always cause scarcity in coin supply.

Yes, I think these cycles are directly related to halvings which also happen to be around every 4 years. The next halving is expected to happen in a bit more than a year from now, and the prices were seen to grow after them, so it's likely to happen again. At the same time, though, we should not be absolutely certain that this will happen, since mining does not really affect the price directly. This logic was used to justify the point that Bitcoin won't go below $6k, and yet here we are. Halving might lead to more miners leaving the market as the already unprofitable business gets even more unprofitable, you know. Halving might trigger the growth of demand but it's not bound to do that, unfortunately.

I honestly still don’t get why most investors keeps watching out for trend and believing whatever trend that played out in the past will also play same role again, well the market cannot be predicted so we find ourselves in a market where anything can happen but I think the forces behind value decision of Bitcoin and any other cryptocurrency is what you have said, the major determinant of its value will be what people are presently doing with it and the volume of Bitcoin the get engage in daily, what will now determine if we will experience a decline or increase in price is if the volume that is affecting the market is a BUY volume or SELL volume.

actually i do believe that the halving is only coinciding with the rise and is not the reason. and it has never been the reason for the rises. that coincidence helps speed up the process though because it brings some hype and that always removes a lot of "fear of manipulation" from the market and people jump in where before they were standing around scared of some FUD or some manipulation dump.
otherwise the real effects of halving are always only seen at least 3 months AFTER the event itself while the rise starts 1-2 months BEFORE the event.

The only thing I know for sure is that I don’t see anything major happening until the halving of next year, even the litecoin halving slated for this year will have good effect on the market but not enough to bring the market out of the bear market fully into bull run but might set it on its part, the major halving expected to really turn the market round and make the major bull run is that of bitcoin which will not happen until next year, sure we will see some major signs this year irrespective of whatever everyone believe will be the course but not the complete bull run. So, let us all wait and see.

Most of things you mentioned won't help the market recover from the bearish season.

Facebook launching their centralized coin will have as much impact on the crypto market as JPM launching their stable coin: zero. VISA adopting crypto? Where did you read this? There's no way that VISA is going to adopt a cryptocurrency when they have the resources and manpower to create their own digital currency, plus they'd rather adopt the blockchain technology. Finally, the hype for the S10 crypto wallet died down, I bet 90% of the people who bought the S10 don't even care about downloading the wallet app.

Bitcoin is just over 10 years old, and I think that's not nearly enough time to establish a 4-year pattern. 

You know, it's human nature to look for patterns everywhere--and we often think something that looks like it has a pattern actually does, when it's not really the case.  That's probably been true ever since we developed frontal lobes, but nowadays people make youtube videos about it and gather followers and likes.  So no, I don't think there's a 4-year cycle at play with bitcoin.  Could we get a rally at the end of the year?  Sure.  It isn't a given, though. 

But man, I'd love to see it happen.  It's been a long time since we've felt that old bitcoin-to-the-moon euphoria.

I think people do not want to admit that the price is falling because there is not much demand and that this lack of demand is due to the fact that the governments are making a lot of pressure and because the regulations are uncertain. So people are looking for justifications where they can and everything to not accept the sad reality of lack of demand because of the pressure of governments and the uncertainty of regulations. But we must accept reality. Keep bringing past events to say that in the future will be the same thing will not cause the price to increase and I very much doubt that happen the same things of the past

2019 is really expected to be a very good year for Bitcoin but I don’t think it is based on trend even if it eventually coincided, the events that occurred in the past that brought about past event has come and gone.

The new events of these time are what will see to it that Cryptocurrency witness major recovery from the current bear market we find it, was there Facebook coin during that time, was there visa adoption of crypto, was there Binance Launchpad, was there Samsung S10 crypto wallet, so whatever affected the price then has done its part and waiting from the new events to take over, so let’s keep our finger crossed and see what happens from here.

Indeed!  Bitcoin trading is like a waiting game.  Those who cannot wait often ends up with regret, while those who waited for too long.. well, they just found out that they are at the starting point again..  It is always best to be vigilant about the price movement and the market news, gossips and rumors..  There is no harm in being informed.  At the end of the day, there maybe cycles but the amount of time or period it will take is still unsure, though funny that these 2 cycles from 2011 to 2014 and 2015 to 2018, both started at being bullish and ended with correction.

Historically speaking can mean a lot of things. The only history for a boom after 270 days is the last cycle, or are we also going to ignore all the other cycles? Don't get me wrong, I completely believe in "we've been here before and we'll be here again", but I don't think we can ever accurately predict just how long lies in between the "whens".

Could be 270 days. Could be 270 weeks. Are you prepared for 5 years of waiting? You should be if you're into Bitcoin!

Well ain't that the truth.

I always found it funny how Bitcoin @ USD 19,000,- seemed like a better investment to many people than Bitcoin at its current price point.



Bitmain also heavily bet on Bitcoin Cash so I'm not sure I'd trust their judgement (from a business point of view, regardless of what your stance on blocksize is).

True , nothing is certain in the market, but the possibility is always there.  As stated history is not a definitive indicator on what will happen next but it is so interesting to talk about the probability of this thing occurring again since as you stated those two 4 year cycle gives Bitcoin its ATH, one in 2013, and another one in 2017.  It is also very interesting to see different views of people regarding this cycle, but nonetheless a certain event will back the next possible run of Bitcoin which may lead to its new ATH or the opposite of it.

lets not forget that the "4 year" is the time that has taken once between the two ATHs not between the time bubble pops and the price starts rising. so your first part of the statement (4 year cycle is real) can be correct only if you think things are repeated that way but the second part (end year rally) is wrong because you forgot to look at the charts.
the rallies last time started happening about a year and a half after the bubble burst. and even though i don't agree with things repeating the same way but price should be rising already and be up by the end of the year instead of starting then.

People will always assume in this market, I believed, how many assumed that the price would even go below 5 digits again, when we touch ATH last year? This market is really based on speculation and if they see the price started to rise after the next halving, and guarantee that they will opt to buy in again, pushing the market price again.


Maybe Bitmain knows something that we don't know,  . Probably risking it, what do they have to lose? They have total monopoly of it, and at least a little risk might be worth in the next year or so.

I think purely the speculation and people's assumptions that the block halving will lift the price will make them buy in, especially if the price is trending up for a month or two straight. People buy into that what goes up, and whatever the reason is the price is going up, people link it to the most obviously available event, which again comes down to the block halving.

Bitmain recently stated that it plans to deploy 200,000 miners, which is something they wouldn't consider if they believed the price would stay more or less around the $4000'ish level. It's obviously not a guarantee that the price will explode, but at least these entities put their money where their mouth is with the insane risks they expose themselves to.

I do always have thought to myself that no matter what there would be no such pattern for this kind of market. We have seen on how many years that
Bitcoins price is very unpredictable.We might see some related incidents comparing to traditional market which we can apply to bitcoin but
it doesn't mean that this will correlate or will happen to btc itself.

Funny. Someone could use this opportunity to make a website counting down the this date. And for celebrating we could make an a pizza Gold party. Because this will make Bitcoin one of the biggest market in the world.

no there isn't. we only have a decade of price history. this "4 year cycle" has literally only happened once. that's not a pattern lol. with the 2011 bubble, the bull/bear cycle was much faster and looked nothing like 2013. we have two data points for how post-bubble bear markets resolve and one of them refutes this claim about a 4-year cycle. things could also take much longer now too.

if you're a bull because of the long term price trend, that's reasonable. but expecting things to play out exactly like 2014-2017 because it happened one time before is really dumb.

That's what makes me a bit less optimistic though, namely that Bitcoin's market may already have reached a size where these cycles become either even longer or less pronounced. I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming halving is already priced in, with the next ATH not occurring until the halving of 2024. Crypto never fails to catch one off guard though.

If the cycle repeats, I think we could be looking at a fun number of $222,202.2 on 2/22/2022.

Bitcoin have got back to previous ATH in 2016, so I think 2020 will see the price returning to near 20k.

Thats why this is a good time to buy it. We already know the potential for growth, and a full recovery would bring 5x profits for those buying now.

Thanks 

Yeah agreed on happy people when that happens haha.

+1 Merit for that post thecodebear - I agree with the numbers by year you’ve predicted. There will be a hell of a lot of happy people here if (as expected) we see euphoric prices in 2021/22.

Totally agree. I'm pretty much assuming $7k region for end of this year, and $15k+ end of 2020, with things heating up in 2021 after it eclipses $20k and suddenly millions/tens of millions/hundreds of millions of people realize that bitcoin didn't disappear to zero and its base price is now at that point the peak from 2017 that they thought would never happen again.

2019 - $6-7k
2020 - $15 - 18k or so
2021/2022 - $100k+ at the peak

Whenever someone predicts a full on bull run by year's end I'm like geez these people need to look at this history, this isn't 2011 anymore, bull runs take a couple years to build up now that bitcoin is a decent sized market.

Yes I think a large amount of people who pay attention to bitcoin believe in the halving-related 4 year cycle.

I'd say it is very probably true, and it makes sense logically. Under this hypothesis bitcoin should start moving up this year, 2020 will be upward but not anything crazy (maybe a 3x?), and 2021 will be another boom year.

I think there could be some fluctuation in the 4 year cycle, because its also due to other events, like the boom in spring of 2017 starting once Japan legally accepted bitcoin. Also the duration of the crash and the duration of the bottom doesn't have much to do with the halving cycle, but the crashes have always crashed by simlilar amounts and the past two crashes have been similar in duration 14 months in 2014, 12 months in 2018. The bottom I think will also turn out to be of similar length, though possibly a bit shorter now just because there is so much more awareness of crypto now and a lot more happening in the industry than there was in 2015. The 2015 bottom was ~9 months, currently we're only half way through that time period and it looks like bitcoin MIGHT move off the bottom a decent amount sooner than late summer which would be ~9 months, considering the price is looking very strong over the past 5 weeks hanging out right at the top of the bottom range, though I am certainly not assuming the bull market is about to begin.

Anyway, the halving produces a slow shift in the market every 4 years by decreasing the supply hitting the market, meaning price invariably rises given similar demand. Price steadily moving up means eventually it will get close to the old peak but this time with a slow built steady base price at that old peak, when the peak gets hit people start believing in bitcoin again and the price starts skyrocketing at some point after that, and at some point the FOMO builds to a fever pitch and we see the price shoot up to totally unreasonable levels and it peaks and crashes. This is all seems to be led by the 4 year halving, with industry events/news obviously playing a part as well. I would just say we should expect a very rough 4 year cycle, because there is no reason the bull market has to last two years before peaking, it could last 3 and we might not see another peak until 2022, in which case perhaps the bottom after the next crash would be short lived as the next 2024 halving would happen during the bottoming out phase in that case rather than quite a while after it. Basically I'd say a 4 year cycle seems to be true with some room for a bit shorter or a bit longer.

I don’t think we’ll see any significant price rise until a few months after the halving in 2020. It’s too soon for ‘epic’ pumps right now. You’re probably going to have to wait 18 months until we see real fireworks.

My prediction for the price at the end of 2019 - Between 6k & 7k.

Probably cycle would repeat. We have seen last year totally was down trend of bitcoin. This year almost we can see bitcoin still stable between $3K to $4K. If in case bitcoin cross $5K then we can say bitcoin going to repeat cycle of last four years. Also we can see few positive news about crypto-currency. Although we don't know exactly what is going on but I am thinking positive. But still bitcoin is bear mode, we don't know when it will bull mode. I think we will be clear after few couple of month. Till then we have to wait.

End of the year is very close to halving as well and that is what I am betting my money on. I have been saving bitcoin for close to 6 months now, I have spent a bit of it and cashed out a little to keep on living but at the same time I am keeping as much bitcoin as possible, that is why I think its really possible at the end of this year we can see a rally, maybe a bit earlier or maybe a bit later but we will see it.

I wouldn't be shocked if it happens on October/November or it happens during January/February instead of December but it will certainly happen. Oh do not think that this "rally" would be something huge though, I feel like it will be about $6k-$7k at most and possibly hitting $8k at max but that is about it, I am not expecting another 20k rally at all not this soon.

If I remember it correctly, the bull cycle started or at least the recovery is after 4 months of the bitcoin block halving. So if anyone thinks that immediately the price will be pump, then you are all wrong. It needed several months before the price spike, so we need that to take into consideration. Another thing worth to mentioned is that there are just few sample data that we can rely up, so it's really hard to say if we are going to see a rally before the end of the year in preparation for the next block halving in 2020.

Same here, but the fomo and hype cycles are what make people actually pay attention to crypto. If it wasn't the mad gains making people enter this market, what else would? I entered because of a bull run too.

Only a very people buy into Bitcoin because they like the underlying tech, while over 90% of the people solely buy Bitcoin for speculative purposes. This is the reality of today where gains is almost all that matters.

At the end of the day, if Bitcoin keeps growing, and I definitely think it will, the increasing liquidity within this market will make it more difficult for fomo and hype to affect its value unless the market as a whole goes nuts.

I guess, we need to wait for another 12 to 16 years if the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin is really a pattern.  But as what OP stated, the previous history is not an indicator of what happen next, we can just wait and see if this cycle will appear again this 2019, and I guess this is the reference of these positive predictions about Bitcoin price that currently plague the social media.

Agreed. Its just decrease of inflation by few %. Thats it.

Technically it could pump price like few %. But fomo guys will pump it 100% i their wont be dumped by whale.

To the bitcoin cycles. Bitcoin is very young and immature. Its hard to predict what would happened on 60 bil market asset looking at its behaviour 4 years ago at 3 bil marketcap. Its totally different type of asset and will act totally different.

I beg to differ. People have been expecting the past halving events to bring something good to the crypto table but in reality, it just cuts down the reward for miners and the relative scarcity is just increased. It is expected to bring price rises but in reality, there really is no guarantee accompanied with the reward halving. Traders might also expect some positive trading signal but then again halving events =/ price increases. As for the 4-year cycle, I don't know. We only have had two of the said 'cycle' so it's hard to call it with utmost certainty.

Definitely agree with you, halving always have a positive effect on Bitcoin price ever since, as what you said, it made Bitcoin mining more scarce.  And scarcity somehow affect the price of any items.  


Well I believe this is just a psychological strategy, making people believe that in some point of time  Bitcoin will reach this amount of price,  which can trigger FOMO that will eventually push the price higher.  I do believe it is not healthy for Bitcoin market though since I favor on a natural price growth than the hyped one.

Me and others have been speaking about this cycle since the start of the bear market. It's not like it's just been discovered or something.

I think that it's safe to say halving has and will have a significant impact in the emergence of bull markets, because of the fact that the relative scarcity of newly mined coins all of a sudden increase and markets react to that, as well as the psychological aspect of people's expectations based on previous halvings pushing demand up.

It's apparent that this time round with the 2020 halving, a bull rally of sorts will most likely occur beforehand. Whether it'll start this year as people price in the event, or how much the markets actually go up as a result of this, we have no idea of knowing for certain, and people who give specific figures to these predictions usually have absolutely zero backing. But I do think that currently, we have already bottomed out, and it's very unlikely that markets will regress further down under $3k.

I am browsing youtube to watch Bitcoin review and I found this video feed from Altcoin Daily, Titled : 270 Days Of Nothing...Then BOOM! Historically Speaking, Bitcoin Should Rally At The End Of The Year! where he talk about Bitcoin 4 year cycle by Bob Loukas.  This caught my interest since there is a pattern on the price of Bitcoin.  

On this video we can see, there is a 3 years uptrend and a year of correction, and recently it was an uptrend from 2015 to 2017, then a downtrend on 2018 that completes the 4 year cycle.  Though we all agree that previous performance is not a definitive indicator of what will happen on the future but is it possible that this 2019 is the start of the new 4 year cycle?  What do you think?

Additional information:

Bob Loukas' Bitcoin 4 year cycle video