@doomloop, I didn't find the exact data for 2022, but in the years before the amount of money that was waiting for a favorable moment to be invested was usually between $4 and $5 trillion, and I don't have too much reason to suspect that it is not a similar or even larger amount in this moment. Positive signals from central banks and announcements about the slowdown and reduction of inflation were obviously the trigger to release some of that money and direct it to the market.
Now the only question is whether it is something that will only be temporary, or whether 2023 will be a year of great recovery for most markets. It seems to me that Bitcoin is just returning to the levels where it should be if there were no scandals caused by Kwon&Bankman and all those who supported them. The ones who are quite disappointed now are those who wanted to see Bitcoin below $15k and as close as possible to $10k, although they still think there is still time for that to happen.
Topic: Bitcoin 50% Down Move Incoming? (Read 475 times)
Now i cant be sure if we would be able to break that 19200+ resistance or not, if it would then 20k or more would be likely to happen within this month or even on next
but if it would be rejected then 16k might be seen again.
That resistance has already been broken, and it seems that the path to $20k is open, although I don't know if there is a sell wall waiting for us there that will stop this mini bull run. To me, the only logical explanation is that good economic conditions were created at the beginning of the year and that money finally started flowing in all directions. Someone in WO wrote a few days ago that $20k is only a matter of days, and as it seems now, it could happen even before this week is over, or at the beginning of next week.but if it would be rejected then 16k might be seen again.
As for $16k, I don't rule out that possibility again, although it seems to me that there are more chances that it won't happen, but that's just my feeling.
Looking at how much USDT and BUSD etc etc we have in the market, if people started to spend that all, or even if not all but just half of that, we would be back to ATH prices, so the funding is there but are we willing to use it? I am not entirely sure. We could break resistance points not by just buying them all, but also making them fear they are missing out as well.
Yup. This prediction failed and I was also quite unsure that's the only reason this thread title ended with a ?
Hope you didn't missed this thread where I analyzed 50% down move too and it got executed -> Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert!
All good though!
Hope you didn't missed this thread where I analyzed 50% down move too and it got executed -> Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert!
All good though!
It's always good when you're bearish in the charts but bullish in the heart. When it goes down at least you can say the prediction was good and get some positive feedback. When it goes up against your prediction, at least you feel good because you want bitcoin to be up and win over scammers and corrupt governments.
Hey, at least you said it would move on the 9th and it did.
Now i cant be sure if we would be able to break that 19200+ resistance or not, if it would then 20k or more would be likely to happen within this month or even on next
but if it would be rejected then 16k might be seen again.
but if it would be rejected then 16k might be seen again.
That resistance has already been broken, and it seems that the path to $20k is open, although I don't know if there is a sell wall waiting for us there that will stop this mini bull run. To me, the only logical explanation is that good economic conditions were created at the beginning of the year and that money finally started flowing in all directions. Someone in WO wrote a few days ago that $20k is only a matter of days, and as it seems now, it could happen even before this week is over, or at the beginning of next week.
As for $16k, I don't rule out that possibility again, although it seems to me that there are more chances that it won't happen, but that's just my feeling.
Yup. This prediction failed and I was also quite unsure that's the only reason this thread title ended with a ?
Hope you didn't missed this thread where I analyzed 50% down move too and it got executed -> Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert!
All good though!
Hope you didn't missed this thread where I analyzed 50% down move too and it got executed -> Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert!
All good though!
Just read again, what I was asking for was new charts and predictions, not old proofs.
I am aware that this kind of predictions, no matter how good are they documented, may or may not come true, don't worry.
@ImThour, I've admitted that my crystal globe is broken, but it looks like yours is no better...
It's not only that the 9th of January doomsday was avoided, but the crypto winter seems to be ending too; or am I rushed with my conclusions?
So let's move on and bring us another chart, what you think? Any new prediction?
It's not only that the 9th of January doomsday was avoided, but the crypto winter seems to be ending too; or am I rushed with my conclusions?
So let's move on and bring us another chart, what you think? Any new prediction?
Yup. This prediction failed and I was also quite unsure that's the only reason this thread title ended with a ?
Hope you didn't missed this thread where I analyzed 50% down move too and it got executed -> Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Alert!
All good though!
@ImThour, I've admitted that my crystal globe is broken, but it looks like yours is no better...
It's not only that the 9th of January doomsday was avoided, but the crypto winter seems to be ending too; or am I rushed with my conclusions?
So let's move on and bring us another chart, what you think? Any new prediction?
Cryptal balls whether it would be broken or not and its just really that normal that lots of speculations and analysis would seem to be broken when Bitcoins price had moved up into the other path.It's not only that the 9th of January doomsday was avoided, but the crypto winter seems to be ending too; or am I rushed with my conclusions?
So let's move on and bring us another chart, what you think? Any new prediction?
Its not that surprising and this is what makes it look interesting that we've been trying out to compare others predictions into ours.If it fails or ends up wrong then we just moved on and
make another one and its not a mistake since this market had been speculative since from the start.
Now i cant be sure if we would be able to break that 19200+ resistance or not, if it would then 20k or more would be likely to happen within this month or even on next
but if it would be rejected then 16k might be seen again.
@ImThour, I've admitted that my crystal globe is broken, but it looks like yours is no better...
It's not only that the 9th of January doomsday was avoided, but the crypto winter seems to be ending too; or am I rushed with my conclusions?
So let's move on and bring us another chart, what you think? Any new prediction?
It's not only that the 9th of January doomsday was avoided, but the crypto winter seems to be ending too; or am I rushed with my conclusions?
So let's move on and bring us another chart, what you think? Any new prediction?
It appears someone did not get the joke or does not see how Michael Saylor is presently a running joke in the cryptospace. However whether it is a joke or not, Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.
For people who think like you, Saylor is certainly a joke in every sense, because a man invests in Bitcoin even at a time when most others are selling, because like every time we are in the middle of a bear market, pessimism is at its highest level, and tombstones for Bitcoin spring up like mushrooms after the rain. Maybe it's good to expose yourself to the end, in other words all the people (including Saylor) have been wrong for the last 2 years because they invested in Bitcoin.
Also on Sam Bankrupt-Fried, I reckon I was also the first person to speculate that FTX was going to bite the dust. I speculated him to be the next king in the cryptospace after Changpeng Zhao. I never considered him to be the most intelligent.
Don't give yourself so much importance, all those who have never invested a single cent in that exchange are intelligent people - all the others do not fall into that category, including you. You didn't consider him the most intelligent person? Then someone else got hold of your account and wrote the following:
I think Sam Bankman-Fried is one of the most intelligent founders in the cryptospace, however, I am starting to be more skeptical about his agenda. In the article, he mentioned that bitcoin may have a future as an asset, a commodity or a store of value. I am scratching my head on what he might be implying in his statement. Is he telling us that bitcoin will not forever be no.1 in market capitalization?
It is funny for people who do not worship Saylor. We can joke and laugh lightheartedly because we do not take this serious. It is only very much similar jokes when Jim Cramer makes a bullish prediction. Also, what was funny was the timing of the creation of this thread predicting a 50% dump and Michael Saylor's latest purchases of bitcoin.
I never give myself too much importance. I am only a newsreader who shares the news and who has opinions similar to much of you. I am sorry if you do not like them. I am not quite certain why you are very annoyed with me.
Does saying he is one of the most intelligent the same as the most intelligent? Read the post you have quoted again. I was making an argument. I said Sam is one of the most intelligent, however. The argument makes it appear that he might not be as intelligent as mentioned.
Don't give yourself so much importance, all those who have never invested a single cent in that exchange are intelligent people - all the others do not fall into that category, including you. You didn't consider him the most intelligent person? Then someone else got hold of your account and wrote the following:
Ouch, bbc. Heh.
So I don't think someone bought your account or posted on your behalf but when you make a habit of commentary on the news, you end up making contradictory statements every now and then. Think even I find myself guilty of that.
Perhaps time to leave them corporate personalities to themselves and not give them so much exposure? Particularly if you think they aren't intelligent...
I am not sure why he is quite annoyed. It might have started when I implied that thinking anything that is not bitcoin is a scam is stupid.
I remember you being optimistic in April when I said Bitcoin will touch $16k by End of Year.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
In October I was already said that 8k is the worse case scenario, still, even then, I was thinking that we're late in the crypto winter and we will probably not touch that.
Since the 19k of October the current 16k is not so bad if we think in terms of going down, but I was expecting we will start going up...
So in January we may see 9k you say... and then what? Should I start asking like the newbies about the end of this bear market: are we there yet?
It's really hard to find the exact bottom of bitcoin. If you ask me I will say that 15800$ was the bottom of this bear market. For bitcoin to go to lower than this, there needs to be a very bad event like ftx crash or Luna crash. I am not seeing that this bad event can't happen, anything can happen but we can't anticipate that such a bad event will surely come.
However, if bitcoin can really go under 10k or 9k I will be ready to load my bags again.
Don't give yourself so much importance, all those who have never invested a single cent in that exchange are intelligent people - all the others do not fall into that category, including you. You didn't consider him the most intelligent person? Then someone else got hold of your account and wrote the following:
Ouch, bbc. Heh.
So I don't think someone bought your account or posted on your behalf but when you make a habit of commentary on the news, you end up making contradictory statements every now and then. Think even I find myself guilty of that.
Perhaps time to leave them corporate personalities to themselves and not give them so much exposure? Particularly if you think they aren't intelligent...
It appears someone did not get the joke or does not see how Michael Saylor is presently a running joke in the cryptospace. However whether it is a joke or not, Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.
For people who think like you, Saylor is certainly a joke in every sense, because a man invests in Bitcoin even at a time when most others are selling, because like every time we are in the middle of a bear market, pessimism is at its highest level, and tombstones for Bitcoin spring up like mushrooms after the rain. Maybe it's good to expose yourself to the end, in other words all the people (including Saylor) have been wrong for the last 2 years because they invested in Bitcoin.
Also on Sam Bankrupt-Fried, I reckon I was also the first person to speculate that FTX was going to bite the dust. I speculated him to be the next king in the cryptospace after Changpeng Zhao. I never considered him to be the most intelligent.
Don't give yourself so much importance, all those who have never invested a single cent in that exchange are intelligent people - all the others do not fall into that category, including you. You didn't consider him the most intelligent person? Then someone else got hold of your account and wrote the following:
I think Sam Bankman-Fried is one of the most intelligent founders in the cryptospace, however, I am starting to be more skeptical about his agenda. In the article, he mentioned that bitcoin may have a future as an asset, a commodity or a store of value. I am scratching my head on what he might be implying in his statement. Is he telling us that bitcoin will not forever be no.1 in market capitalization?
arm these shields boys!
If we'd base on the past Bitcoin's price movement, we should be ready to wait for a year without any continuous upward movement on its price. As far as I remember, the moment Bitcoin and other cryptos reached its peak price way back 2017-2018, the market was a bit stagnant for more than a year. And if we would reflect that market behavior at the present, the downfall has just started on the last quarter of 2022. The next Bitcoin halving on the other hand would be on 2024. Thus, if we qould compare maket behaviors of the two mentioned years, ans if same thing would happen, patience will really be required in order to avoid mistakes as committed by investors before by selling too early without hopes of recovery.
Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.
What type of decisions? Meanwhile, we all btc holders have made a wrong decision too if we havent sold anything since last year hoping for a rally which never came. 
Buying decisions. After most of Microstrategy's announcements that they have bought bitcoin, the price has fallen. These types of decisions are expected for us because we are the stupid money. Michael Saylor is the smart money.
Also, @Lucius argued jokingly that Michael Saylor should have invested in Defi, NFT and different types of shitcoins instead of bitcoin to have a better return on his investment. It appears that @Lucius might be correct. I found something. I will create another thread and avoid this one to be offtopic.
Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.
What type of decisions? Meanwhile, we all btc holders have made a wrong decision too if we havent sold anything since last year hoping for a rally which never came. I never considered him to be the most intelligent
He was intelligent but just in the wrong direction unfortunately.Btw, your img is not loading, invalid error by forum's proxy server?!
If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.
Why would anyone use such a meaningless indicator to try to estimate in which direction the market will move? Until recently, you considered Bankman to be one of the most intelligent people in the world of cryptocurrencies (need I quote you again?), and now you think that Saylor was wrong (and still is) in his investments when it comes to Bitcoin? Maybe he should have invested in NTF, DeFi or various shitcoins, so today he would have solved all his worries because he would have lost all the money he invested...
A smart person who also has money for investments invests for the long term, so what seems wrong to you today will probably turn out to be a very profitable investment in 1-2 years.
It appears someone did not get the joke or does not see how Michael Saylor is presently a running joke in the cryptospace. However whether it is a joke or not, Saylor has always made the wrong decisions after 2020.
Also on Sam Bankrupt-Fried, I reckon I was also the first person to speculate that FTX was going to bite the dust. I speculated him to be the next king in the cryptospace after Changpeng Zhao. I never considered him to be the most intelligent.
Could also just go off the 50 day average which has roughly herded the BTC price action downwards quite consistently. We do need to fight and confirm each level of support numerous times, I think it becomes increasingly likely we find a bottom as we explore these prices. I'll stick to what I said in the spring, I think 2019 peak prices is probably very close to where the low is found and it could just be a case of minutes its down there not sure but mostly I think we are in the right area and I'm not that worried after we already sold off this much.
RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now. Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all. history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.
True. We had a different sentiment ... a special one that might happen once in a century , can't really compare that to any other years in the past. We could get the bottom pretty soon and bounce a little bit back to $20k and then get the price down halved even more lower to below $10k if there is more sentiment in the macro economics such as the recession pressure etc.RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now. Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all. history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.
Stay balancing the cash and the crypto portofolio for now.
If i should do ask, why does Bitcoin price continue that get down, is that the market is not supportive tye way I'm seeing, because i believe that Bitcoin price what causes the determination of the price it's because of the people who buy and sell Bitcoin, so therefore i will say that Bitcoin lack more investors that makes the the movement of the price continue to fall, and sometimes the price go down because of negative information that passes by.
There’s no strong buyer at the moment and probably many are still waiting for Bitcoin to dump again and I think in the first quarter of 2023, we might still see the bear trend with Bitcoin. Negative news are still here preventing the market from rising, though many are now optimistic about the trend this new year and we should also believe on that. Bitcoin can rise again if it gets enough volume to pump, we need more patience for this. If i should do ask, why does Bitcoin price continue that get down, is that the market is not supportive tye way I'm seeing, because i believe that Bitcoin price what causes the determination of the price it's because of the people who buy and sell Bitcoin, so therefore i will say that Bitcoin lack more investors that makes the the movement of the price continue to fall, and sometimes the price go down because of negative information that passes by.
Yes, you are right, it does happen in the past where most people expect or believing what the News said that Bitcoin would go/drop to zero that's why there's a sudden crash of the market. It's the people that will make the Bitcoin price to move but if this analysis of OP were going to be expected it's kinda difficult to say so since it's just a speculation but most people from the past really learned their lesson so it might not follow of what OP's been expecting IMO.Besides, most speculation believe that $10k was the best support or it won't even touch that price to see the very bottom although, we are almost there if you come to think about it but the $16k support is kind of strong to still hold this long.
If i should do ask, why does Bitcoin price continue that get down, is that the market is not supportive tye way I'm seeing, because i believe that Bitcoin price what causes the determination of the price it's because of the people who buy and sell Bitcoin, so therefore i will say that Bitcoin lack more investors that makes the the movement of the price continue to fall, and sometimes the price go down because of negative information that passes by.
Could also just go off the 50 day average which has roughly herded the BTC price action downwards quite consistently. We do need to fight and confirm each level of support numerous times, I think it becomes increasingly likely we find a bottom as we explore these prices. I'll stick to what I said in the spring, I think 2019 peak prices is probably very close to where the low is found and it could just be a case of minutes its down there not sure but mostly I think we are in the right area and I'm not that worried after we already sold off this much.
RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now. Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all. history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.
RSI or whatever indicator, we have multiple fights just momentum leading us down for so long it has to turn all that inertia around now. Dont go too much off analogues, we arent 2018 the world is different, BTC is different and Dollar itself is not the same at all. history is just an example of what can happen, I dont take it exactly.
I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.
I do not think so. For 68k to 34k, bitcoin took more than 50 days and for 34k to 17k, it again took more than 5 months of time. But, at the times of bottom, another 50% fall may happen in one or two days of time itself. Yet, not all the news are capable of taking down to 50% fall; so do not need to be worried as market sentiment is changing to positive on the verge of new year.Like other people here, I am also confident about bouncing back of bitcoin market from here after instead of thinking about another round of bearish trend any more. Let's prepare for bullish trend till end of 2025.
I believe we are at the bottom right now and we are going to stay strong here and nothing under 15k is ever possible, doesn't matter if it is 10k or 100 dollars, its all the same, not going to happen.
I was analyzing Bitcoin's RSI on Weekly Timeframe.
I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.
Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.
If we follow the 2018 chart, of course the final cross-down is at this time before entering the lowest price stage, or closing the down price. If we calculate a 50% drop from the current price, roughly the price of Bitcoin will drop to $8,500.I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.
Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.
This means that it is not the right time to go to the exchange to buy Bitcoins. At a glance, what I can understand is based on the chart and analysis of the price reduction that you conveyed. But many predictions now contradict the chart at that time. Many say that the current Bitcoin price is the lowest price before entering the next bullrun.
If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.
Why would anyone use such a meaningless indicator to try to estimate in which direction the market will move? Until recently, you considered Bankman to be one of the most intelligent people in the world of cryptocurrencies (need I quote you again?), and now you think that Saylor was wrong (and still is) in his investments when it comes to Bitcoin? Maybe he should have invested in NTF, DeFi or various shitcoins, so today he would have solved all his worries because he would have lost all the money he invested...
A smart person who also has money for investments invests for the long term, so what seems wrong to you today will probably turn out to be a very profitable investment in 1-2 years.
If we use Michael Saylor as a market indicator, it appears @ImThour's 50% dump might become true hehehehe. After every purchase of bitcoin Saylor has made after 2020, the price has always fallen down after. I have never witnessed someone who is supposed to belong to a group of people called smart money to have made this much wrong investment decisions.
In a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the business disclosed a purchase of about 2,395 bitcoins made with cash, at an average price of some $17,871 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.
Source https://cryptonews.com/news/michael-saylor-continues-invest-bitcoin-with-428-million-purchase-through-microstrategy.htm
In a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the business disclosed a purchase of about 2,395 bitcoins made with cash, at an average price of some $17,871 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.
Source https://cryptonews.com/news/michael-saylor-continues-invest-bitcoin-with-428-million-purchase-through-microstrategy.htm
If this issue with Binance becomes a fiasco then there is no doubt Bitcoin will be in a very huge discounted sales again.
If binance crashes, bitcoin is not only down 50% from now, but I think it will drop even more we could see $5k bitcoin or $3k if binance crashes. Of course bitcoin will recover after that but it will take us a very long time to recover. Binance currently dominates and holds the majority of the market share, larger than Mt.gox and FTX combined.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.
Fundamentally, the current sentiment of Bitcoin is far from breaking $20k, unless some big things happen like many giant companies investing in Bitcoin or the US of A approved Bitcoin as legal tender (which is highly unlikely).
At the current market sentiment, I believe the best outcome we have would be a sideway, due to the lingering negative sentiment in the market as we can read on the online news since the fall of Luna, then FTX, and now the mining farms while Binance is still on the hot seat. If this issue with Binance becomes a fiasco then there is no doubt Bitcoin will be in a very huge discounted sales again.
guys here is a summary of gold chart
feb 1992 = 353
feb 1993 = 329
feb 1994 = 381
feb 1995 = 376
feb 1996 = 404
feb 1997 = 347
feb 1998 = 297
feb 1999 = 287
feb 2000 = 300
feb 2001 = 201
feb 2002 = 296
feb 2003 = 358
feb 2004 = 405
feb 2005 = 423
feb 2006 = 554
feb 2007 = 665
feb 2008 = 924
feb 2009 = 941. and pivot to BTC in your dreams
my point is how do you know when we go up look if you grabbed 353,000 in gold in 1992 you would feel terrible with only 201,000 value in 2001 so look above gold pretty much sucked if you got in 1992 and held to 2003. break even with a 12 year hodl and no real peaks that you missed.
None of us know that BTC will have a 4 year flat slot in the 14-18k range were are 4 months in and have 44 months to go.
Gold showed a 1992 to 2003 in a 200-400 slot and basically 353 became 358 if you held that long.
Proof to me that BTC is going to sideways slot 13 to 19k
or proof it is going to leave the slot in the 2023-2026 time frame.
you can't I can't . But it looks sideways for more time right now.
Oh those gold numbers come from here.
https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/gold-price/
feb 1992 = 353
feb 1993 = 329
feb 1994 = 381
feb 1995 = 376
feb 1996 = 404
feb 1997 = 347
feb 1998 = 297
feb 1999 = 287
feb 2000 = 300
feb 2001 = 201
feb 2002 = 296
feb 2003 = 358
feb 2004 = 405
feb 2005 = 423
feb 2006 = 554
feb 2007 = 665
feb 2008 = 924
feb 2009 = 941. and pivot to BTC in your dreams
my point is how do you know when we go up look if you grabbed 353,000 in gold in 1992 you would feel terrible with only 201,000 value in 2001 so look above gold pretty much sucked if you got in 1992 and held to 2003. break even with a 12 year hodl and no real peaks that you missed.
None of us know that BTC will have a 4 year flat slot in the 14-18k range were are 4 months in and have 44 months to go.
Gold showed a 1992 to 2003 in a 200-400 slot and basically 353 became 358 if you held that long.
Proof to me that BTC is going to sideways slot 13 to 19k
or proof it is going to leave the slot in the 2023-2026 time frame.
you can't I can't . But it looks sideways for more time right now.
Oh those gold numbers come from here.
https://www.jmbullion.com/charts/gold-price/
I remember you being optimistic in April when I said Bitcoin will touch $16k by End of Year.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
In October I was already said that 8k is the worse case scenario, still, even then, I was thinking that we're late in the crypto winter and we will probably not touch that.
Since the 19k of October the current 16k is not so bad if we think in terms of going down, but I was expecting we will start going up...
So in January we may see 9k you say... and then what? Should I start asking like the newbies about the end of this bear market: are we there yet?
I am not a believer in technical analysis but looking at the world economy and what is going on in the markets, I also predict another crash in 2023. Fed rates are falling, but the recession is closer than ever, even many countries have already into recession, so expectations of a bull run in 2023 are highly unlikely. I don't think bitcoin can drop to 8k, but 10k-12k is possible.
Technical analysis is a decent indicator. However, the problem is people just compare what's happened before, and then expect a similar pattern. When really; the analysis should be looking at the current situation, what happened in the past, what's different now, and the current risk factors. For example, rarely do I see users thinking about how the recession will impact their previous historical cycles, which is quite obvious to me. We aren't going to see the same pattern; since four years ago we didn't have a pandemic, and recession to recover from. The four year cycle is nothing more than a market that's relatively stable because of the lack of massive events that effect global investment. Such as; pandemic, war, and the recession.
I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
I remember you being optimistic in April when I said Bitcoin will touch $16k by End of Year.
Not a good year for whole world economy as for now, maybe try to adapt as per the situation.
$9k is not so far from $16k when we can go from $69k to $16k.
The accumulation phase obviously has to last for some time, and those who have knowledge, power and money definitely want to maintain that phase as long as possible because their bags are never full enough.
This is one of the bits I've missed, I guess. Also I've seen signs that the global economy seems to be recovering somewhat, or at least is not going full speed towards the edge.
My calculations were expecting a shorter crypto winter and less stiff bull market.
I've also matched the length of the bear market with the previous one (I know, it's not enough data, clearly), and my calculations said that Q4 2022 should be the end of this crypto winter.
I don't know if the math was wrong or I've also missed this or that on the way, .. it doesn't matter much now anymore...
I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
~snip~
~snip~
I remember that you were quite positive about the end of the year, and honestly it was not clear to me why you were of the opinion that anything positive would happen - even though it was before FTX happened, but even without that I think that the moment is simply unfavorable considering the current circumstances in general and the phase in which Bitcoin is always before the halving.
The accumulation phase obviously has to last for some time, and those who have knowledge, power and money definitely want to maintain that phase as long as possible because their bags are never full enough. It seems to me that the game still has the same rules, and that would mean another 6 months of crypto winter, and then the market will move in the direction that many expect.
I really thought that by now we would be already in an incipient bull market. I was wrong.
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
Now I try to gather all the info I can get in order to get a glimpse of how long would this crypto winter still last.
OP idea is not easy to dismiss as crazy since the worse case scenario is some 8-10k in this cycle and we didn't touch that. I thought that we will not get there though...
I will be looking for whatever happens in 9th of January, let's see if OP charts / ideas are any good
I still hope they're wrong, but all seems to go wrong with my plans lately...
I think even if we don't look at the charts and just by seeing how the price moves in 2018-2019 bear market, it seems that we might be for another leg down down this year, or the final capitulation before we can see last rebound in the last quarter of the year. But not that huge recovery that we are looking, sort of saying that the bear market might be finally over. So yeah, maybe at the start of the year, expect the unexpected, or the worst situation of another lower lows for this year.
I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.
I do not think so. For 68k to 34k, bitcoin took more than 50 days and for 34k to 17k, it again took more than 5 months of time. But, at the times of bottom, another 50% fall may happen in one or two days of time itself. Yet, not all the news are capable of taking down to 50% fall; so do not need to be worried as market sentiment is changing to positive on the verge of new year.Like other people here, I am also confident about bouncing back of bitcoin market from here after instead of thinking about another round of bearish trend any more. Let's prepare for bullish trend till end of 2025.
You know what. I am not saying this will happen.
But right now the Sp500 index is trading very similar to 2008. Basically very similar ranges at obviously different prices but similar points in time. We are at the point of where Lehman collapsed and stocks went down massively. So it’s not hard to understand another 50% drop.
However keep in mind. If it were this easy to just look at past charts then everybody would be rich. So DCA just in case. If it crashes then you can average down.
But right now the Sp500 index is trading very similar to 2008. Basically very similar ranges at obviously different prices but similar points in time. We are at the point of where Lehman collapsed and stocks went down massively. So it’s not hard to understand another 50% drop.
However keep in mind. If it were this easy to just look at past charts then everybody would be rich. So DCA just in case. If it crashes then you can average down.
In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time.
So, in last 2 cycles, 50% fall happened at the end of bearish trend? I am also sure that for the current market sentiment, if any negative news happens right now then we can see a bloodbath easily unlike at the beginning of the same bearish trend. Moreover, I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.The good thing is, even after a 50% collapse at the end of bearish market, we bounced back; so I agree that we do not need to worry but we can be glad as we are about to sail on green market in real soon.
far we do able to reach out in speaking about ATH and ATL comparisson.Although not all history or things in the past do significantly that makes on what things could happen in the future.
Yes, we can really make out some patterns but it wont really be that 100% precise for it to be true or something that we could really rely upon.
If you've been making out investment on this market then make yourself that prepared.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.
I know the market is matured now and most times does not follow the chart or history.
There's no strong support nor strong resistant. When I thought btc formed a support at 20k, just FTX fud pulled it down very fast.
In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time.
So, in last 2 cycles, 50% fall happened at the end of bearish trend? I am also sure that for the current market sentiment, if any negative news happens right now then we can see a bloodbath easily unlike at the beginning of the same bearish trend. Moreover, I guess it would be easier that any big negative news is capable of dragging bitcoin market up to 50% regardless of beginning or end of bearish trend.The good thing is, even after a 50% collapse at the end of bearish market, we bounced back; so I agree that we do not need to worry but we can be glad as we are about to sail on green market in real soon.
The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.
Let's say that the situation is not very good, but do you think that it is so bad that the price will not recover significantly for at least another 2 years? Does that mean that for you the halving that will happen in the first half of 2024 will have absolutely no effect?
I think that 2023 will still bring some positive change, especially if inflation is stopped and if the EU and the US successfully survive this winter. This would mean that ordinary people will have more money to invest, and they are the ones who need to start the market at some point.
50% crash can always happen, but not because something like that happened in the past, but because of some new extremely bad news.
If you keep spotting on, you can find lots of similar patterns between 2018 and 2014 as well. But, the bulls came to action at different times which may happen for 2022 bearish trend as well. In 2015 January, we had mt.cox collapse and in 2018 December we had BCH-SV fork and these 2 incidents led 50% down fall in quicker time. Overall downfall from respective ATH was around 80% and unfortunately we are already trading into that zone hence I am not expecting another 50% downfall from here before bulls get into action.
Like elliot wave theory, bitcoin is suffering up to 80% downfall in its each cycle from the ATH. So, the bottom for current cycle is around $15k with give or take $2k hence we can assume that we had passed the bottom already. This means, we do not need to be worried about another pullback from here.
Like elliot wave theory, bitcoin is suffering up to 80% downfall in its each cycle from the ATH. So, the bottom for current cycle is around $15k with give or take $2k hence we can assume that we had passed the bottom already. This means, we do not need to be worried about another pullback from here.
I don't want to compare the current situation on the Bitcoin market with the 2018-2019 market. In 2018-2019, the bearish market lasted several months and the price started growing from 4K to 8-10K USD during the spring of 2019. I don't expect a massive price growth in the spring of 2023. The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.
I am not a believer in technical analysis but looking at the world economy and what is going on in the markets, I also predict another crash in 2023. Fed rates are falling, but the recession is closer than ever, even many countries have already into recession, so expectations of a bull run in 2023 are highly unlikely. I don't think bitcoin can drop to 8k, but 10k-12k is possible.
Honestly, not only big investors but even myself can say that bitcoin has never been a safe haven or a safe haven in times of crisis or inflation. Bitcoin has yet to reach that level, it needs more time to do so.
I don't want to compare the current situation on the Bitcoin market with the 2018-2019 market. In 2018-2019, the bearish market lasted several months and the price started growing from 4K to 8-10K USD during the spring of 2019. I don't expect a massive price growth in the spring of 2023. The crypto winter will continue to 2025 and even beyond.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.
There's no point of drawing conclusions based on price patterns, that happened years ago. Of course that the possibility of the Bitcoin price dropping down to 8K USD is real. It's a bear market after all. A global recession is coming and the FUD is everywhere. The big investors simply don't see Bitcoin as a safe heaven.
sorry little bit out of topic I think your RSI crossing average indicator can give a huge profit when it comes to weekly chart
While I don't think that's likely (I've had my fair share of crosses golden and death... and more!), have to say also we haven't had a flash crash happen -- something Bitcoin's particularly susceptible to in bear markets. It doesn't usually happen within a year of ATH, though, then again, this cycle's keen on chucking away the wisdom of past cycles.
Expect more down crosses first before that flash crash -- and then a powerful rebound. That's what I'm gritting my teeth for, but not just quite so soon as the week of Bitcoin's "birthday"...
Expect more down crosses first before that flash crash -- and then a powerful rebound. That's what I'm gritting my teeth for, but not just quite so soon as the week of Bitcoin's "birthday"...
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
LMAO which support are you talking about? We already broke 200 Moving Average which was a support for past two cycles.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
Based on the pictures you posted, I admit the pattern is pretty much the same, but trading is unlikely to follow the pattern as long as strong support is in.Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
So far I've judged that bitcoin's difficulty breaking the $20K resistance is why this sideway has lasted for days. Lastly $18K was skipped, but that was only temporary before dropping back down to $16.5K. I don't actually expect a deeper fall in January where the same pattern is evident, meaning I would like the opposite where support is expected to get the market back to recover above $20K.
I was analyzing Bitcoin's RSI on Weekly Timeframe.
I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.
Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.
I noticed something similar happening as compared to 2018.
Down represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average downwards.
Up represents when RSI crosses RSI's Moving Average upwards.
In 2018, there were 5 Down Crosses before bottom was in. After the last down cross, BTC went down 50%.
Currently, 5th Down Cross happened on 5th Dec, 2022. Let's see if Bitcoin follows the similar pattern.
It took Bitcoin 5 weeks before it started going down. 5 weeks from 5th Dec will be 9th Jan, 2023.
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