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Topic: Bitcoin adoption rate as of today, could it be 3%? (Read 1224 times)

sr. member
Activity: 910
Merit: 302
At less than .01% can you imagine the price at even 2%?


no
sr. member
Activity: 910
Merit: 302
Less than 0.1 %.

I don't think the number of users can be determined from the number of QT downloads or the number of web based wallets.  A large proportion of this would be established users doing multiple downloads / creating multiple wallets, or people in the general public creating wallets after reading bitcoin hyped articles in the media but then quickly losing interest and never bothering to use them.

agreed
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
https://youtu.be/PZm8TTLR2NU
Buying into bitcoin (or any crypto, really) at this stage in the game will within 10 years yield ROI's with many, many zeroes on the end.

legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1001
This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf
I would say way under 1%. I think it was only 0.1% of just Visa as of this month.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1008
If you want to walk on water, get out of the boat
Definitely under 1%

Probably under 0.1% too.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Probably less than 0.05 %.
sr. member
Activity: 245
Merit: 250
Elsewhere on this forum the distribution of Bitcoin has been discussed.  One analysis suggests 2 million people hold bitcoin, of which over half hold less than 0.1.  Another suggests only 500k users, based on a raw number of addresses.

Either way, these indicate the 0.5% in the OP is way overestimated.  In fact the link doesnt even say that, thats for Finland.  The average is something like 0.35%.  The same link measuring downloads pulls up a number of about 2 million... by my reckoning thats 0.02% of the developed world (excluding China).

Short version:  the poll options are a factor or two out.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
Well below 1%. Probably less than 0.1%.

Downloading QT or opening a web wallet is one thing. Actually installing QT is one step upwards. Actually getting a hold of coins is a big leap for most.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Is it safe to look at "QT Downloads" ?  Considering I have downloaded it probably 5 times myself?

Maybe we look at QT downloads and cut it by about 70%, to get a more accurate number.

Way under 1% is my vote.

-B-
sr. member
Activity: 342
Merit: 250
I'd say under 1% actually use it. Probably more than 5% have heard about it but have never used it. Every single one of my friends and family knows about it because I always talk about it...
sr. member
Activity: 585
Merit: 250
So technically all 5 answers are correct... Or in my case, only the last one!
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Yes under 1% has got my vote.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1014
In Satoshi I Trust
At or under 1% worldwide, even in developed countries.

The room for growth is basically all of it.

yep, under 1% i would say.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
I'm not sure if there really is a lot of data for underdeveloped countries; after all even internet usage in those countries is very unknown.

Personally, I'd be surprised if worldwide, we've scratched .1%. I can believe that in developed countries we've hit up to 1%, but to total everything and come up with a 1% figure worldwide is too much of a stretch to me.

By the way I like that article, I gave a shout out to the city I've come to call home!
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
At or under 1% worldwide, even in developed countries.

The room for growth is basically all of it.
sr. member
Activity: 910
Merit: 302
I was reading http://thegenesisblock.com/mapping-bitcoin-adoption-a-global-perspective/
article about the bitcoin adoption rate from almost an year ago

so in the developed countries adoption have been up to 0.5% a year ago.
And thats just the bitcoin-qt downloads. When we add the web wallets and the others I think it's safe to tripple that. So, we've got 1.5% one year ago, won't be surprise if it doubled since then to 3%.
That's percent just for the developed countries though. Worldwide would be much less.
Still a lot higher than I thought.

What other data we've got so we can make better estimation?
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