Topic: Bitcoin analysis with a different approach. (Read 72 times)

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In my way of analyzing the market, it has always worked for me to use Wyckoff's theory in the Stages of Accumulation and Distribution and for the upward or downward trend I use Elliot, if we take into account now that it is an uptrend with time to Days, I obtain:


tradingview.com

It should be noted that when applying Elliot I am not that expert in the use of indicators, but I have read some of the Elliot waves, attached I had that little prediction, I think we could reach at least $ 100k this year.

This is my way of seeing the market, I combine a little of what I have learned through textbooks, I know that my analysis is very optimistic and that anything can happen in the market and can invalidate everything I have raised.




When doing a small zoom to the volume, (I place in yellow for the bullish candles because it represents something big, golden, almost heavenly, the gray for when the candles go down that represents something of "alert", this to avoid the typical red color that represents fall) we see that it is in a pleasant color, somewhat bullish, it looks like it continues to grow, which indicates that there is little supply, it may continue to grow.

That's right, also when I do the market analysis in Bitcoin when positions are placed in the medium and long term, it is easier to react to the movements of the market, however, although I like Wyckoff, when I analyze the trends with the Waves of Elliot has worked for me in a great way. I combine Wyckoff's theory with Livermore's way of looking at the market and with Elliot when the trend is bearish or bullish.

There are also a lot of people who are into fundamental analysis when it comes to Bitcoin. Especially if they are a long-term trader or they plan to hodl Bitcoin for a very long term. And there are also some people who intended not to trade their Bitcoins, instead they just hodl it and buy more Bitcoin.

In the market  we have witnessed eventualities that have paralyzed the world, we have seen how the market has developed over the years, both in the Stock Market, Forex, Bitcoin, Alts, among others.

When we analyze the Bitcoin market, we take into account a lot of technical analysis, in fact, in many, it is the first thing we try to learn, but in reality technical analysis is everything? Many patterns may work, some chart figures work.

In my little trading experience, I have had many failures using Technical Analysis, because I applied it without taking into account the volume, only the figure, it is a way to analyze it, but through reading some books, the volume is very important for analysis, in fact, there are people who only read the volume.
For many there is confusion with volume, when we enter our Exchange, by default in many it appears in red and green, where red reflects sales and green purchases. But finally this does not correspond, what it means is the number of negotiations.

My style of analysis is very peculiar, I mix Wyckoff's theory with Jesse Livermore's teachings, after this is how I can try to understand the market.



It can be seen that according to Wyckoff's theory it has fulfilled another scheme and is in a bullish trend, of course after such scheme, comes the Distribution Stage, which, in 2017-2018 was not so long, it lasted a very short time.
Another way to see the volume of deals where Green = Purchases, and Red = Sales is at tensorcharts.com:



You can see that the volume here indicates purchases and sales, there is also the difference gradient between purchases and sales, it is a very powerful tool.

When we analyze by tradingview the Shorts we have:



They are totally closed.
In the Longs:



The Longs are still open.

Well, this suggests that the price of Bitcoin is very likely to continue growing, it may reach $ 60K.
Of course it's my point of view .. what do you think?

Another indicator that can be used is that of emotions:

 
Source: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Given this, it is safer to make decisions, because for now the most viable thing would be to buy and wait, which is very likely that the price of Bitcoin can continue to rise.