Topic: Bitcoin Average 70% to 85% drops in 'bear markets' before big pushes to ATH... (Read 266 times)

Never say never when it comes to Bitcoin, but I would not bet that the price of BTC will go so low - which would mean as much as 50% loss in value at the moment. I think we hit bottom to about $28k after we hit $69k, and that's the biggest negative price difference that will happen after halving 2020.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to go that low, but there would have to be some very negative reason that would cause a great deal of panic in the market. This is, of course, the x-factor that is completely unknown and should be counted on, but at the moment I tend to believe that there is a much greater tendency for the price to increase than to go into such drastic declines.

Its just the average of all the price drop after its new ATH which is quite known to the cryptocurrency investors, I am also expecting the next lowest low price will be around 20K that is the perfect time for big and long term investment but don't forget that the price dropped to sub 30K at some point earlier still the price managed to recover and reach mid 45K in no time.

While bear markets are incredibly difficult ranging markets in which the range in which an asset moves is very tight are also incredibly difficult for people, because those which are expecting a big trend are not obtaining profits but the traders are not obtaining profits either, unless they are willing to use massive amounts of leverage, something that is incredibly risky, so many people end up selling their coins out of boredom only to miss the bull run that comes after such a period of time.

Generally what I found to be another Indicator which is not related to price or technical analysis is when people just sell out of boredom because it’s not moving anywhere.

I remember 2015 was such a boring year for most of Bitcoin. It did nothing pretty much for 9 months, everybody said to pack it in and sell. And eventually it bottomed out and we never saw $200 again.

Same for late 2018 and early 2019. People though Bitcoin is dead longtime ago and was nothing but a fad however it bottom then around $3.5K and most likely will never return to that price.

Yes, and the fact that this is the year 2022 already makes a lot of difference. If we compare Bitcoin's price movements during the time when it was only known by very few nerdy people in the internet and today when countries are even starting to deliberate on it as a possible alternative currency, there is a very great difference. Bitcoin could easily fail when it was only supported by geeks, but not now when it is already supported even by leaders of countries.

Not only the fundamentals of bitcoin are pointing towards that direction, it is also a matter of common sense, now we have stronger holders that are not going to get scared that easily, which means the price is developing a greater resistance to go down as much as it did in the past, and since this is a process that keeps repeating itself then it is to be expected that people become more and more reluctant to sell their coins, as they are seeing the fiat system will also face huge problems during the next decade.

Well , you have a good look at the chart but  that's not completely happened constantly as remembering there are no repeating once the situation .

History may come but not exactly how it use to be, Who knows what could come on us now? we can see a Hyping 2022 , but we can also see a dumping 2023 .

But what is good here is that the value of bitcoin constantly making its way to 40k and that is a bright signal that we have a strong market this year.

You have to consider it as a factor that in the past the price of Bitcoin was very low so a huge swing of 70% to 80% is more possible. Even during the time when Bitcoin was already reaching 5 digits it is easy for the price to swing back to 4 digits. But is it still applicable when Bitcoin's ATH is already at $69,000? Is it still possible for Bitcoin to swing back to $12,500? I don't think so. And considering that the fundamentals are pointing at a higher price, it is almost unimaginable for Bitcoin to fall down to as low as $12,500.

IMO, just how the market works, and in fact, as I always said, there's no infinite growth in the Bitcoin price.
I have doubt that it will not happen the repeat itself just wait for it and observe the market closely.

For now, there are a lot of predictions and speculation regarding the Bitcoin price, but no one says, Bitcoin has matured enough and it's possible that there's a market trend, it could be a small correction but not more than that.  I don't see a big percentage of drop, it's just a minor correction.

The popular theory right now is that the cycles are getting smaller, so if the tops are not as dramatic, then the bottom won't be as dramatic too, simply because 80% decline would mean that the trend of Bitcoin growth since its inception would be broken and we'd be in an unprecedented bear market. This is highly unlikely, because there's no fundamental reasons for it to happen.

The performance of the markets change as time passes, probably the main difference between then and now is that now we have institutional investors, the buying price of most institutional investors is way higher than that, so if the price of bitcoin went that low their losses on paper will be too big to ignore, so it makes more sense for them to buy bitcoin and protect it from such a drop than to let it reach prices that low, so I do not think we will see prices as low as what you think.

If you are based on historical data, the only indicator that has not been broken so far is that when a previous top is broken, the price does not bounce back, which is what happened when the price crossed the $20,000 barrier for the first time since 2018, so when you build a model or an 84% correction, you must take that Under consideration.

The current prices are still good if we ignore the cycle that occurs every four years, and if it does not occur until the end of this year, we cannot consider this model valid for future forecasting.

Yeah, that's what I observed as well, the market has been maturing, maybe those who are new during the bull run of 2017 has aged a lot and grown up in the last 2 years that they know what to do.

If $25k can be hit then it's another perfect time to accumulate again.

And we have a cycle then we can call it that way, accumulate during bear market and then wait for the bull run to happen to make money.

Historically it’s correct, we get huge downturns from cycle ATH’s. I don’t think the trend will repeat this time though & I’ll tell you why. Bitcoin as an asset is maturing, we are no longer a bunch of nerds online buying bitcoin. Institutional money is here, bitcoin as an asset is maturing. 2017 cycle high was $19,xxx, we only reached $69,xxx in the 2021 high so the massive blow off tops might be gone. If that’s the case then huge dumps might be gone too. I expect $25,000 to be the bottom in maybe early 2023.

But the possibility is there right?

I remember way back in 2017, when we hit all time high, and then the price goes down, but there are still members that keeps pushing and saying that the price will not go down below $10k, and yet after the months that follows, the price did dip to $6k if my memory serves me right.

Although bitcoin's narrative has change, I will say it again, everything is possible, considering all things around us.

Something something past performance is not indicative of future results. I'm definitely not saying that it will not happen, but if literally everyone expects the same exact thing to happen, chances are, it will not happen. That's just how markets work.

Nobody knows. I think it all depends on how the stock markets play out. Currently this week we got JPM earnings and they were a miss. If we see many more bad earnings then it’s possible for a larger correction however I don’t think it’s going to be like 85% correction.

It’s possible however that we might revisit the low of last summer and maybe touch the 200 WMA. The signs I am getting is the false break we had last week when Luna was buying bitcoins in the millions. We should be at $50k now however we failed to even reach that. Seems like lots of large sellers are active at these levels.

I assume according to my thoughts the current bitcoin price is said to be normal even though the graph looks bearish. while yesterday's highest price spike to reach the highest price of $69k, which in my opinion is unnatural and too fantastic, because it flew too high and could not hold its foundation so that the market returned to its original price. It is this factor that people assume that the price of bitcoin is experiencing instability or strong inflation.

I ask you two question here.

1) Was 69K was the all time high or we have an extended bull market  this time ?

2) Even if 69,000 was top, is it nessesary to fall to 70-80% everytime ? The fundamentals have changed a lot. Today there are lot more institutions, countries and retails who buy bitcoin on every dip and generate a lot of demand that its hard for bitcoin to break the 30K level.

While you were looking at the charts you should have looked at everything not just the conclusion you wanted to make about the drop.
If you check again you can see that the big drops ONLY occur when there is a BIG RISE first not out of nowhere and without that initial massive price increase. For example in 2018 the 84% drop came after price had gone up for 13000%.

In simple terms you can't expect a similar drop after a 2000% rise (missing 11000% more rise).

Another thing you missed when you looked at the history was the fact that whenever we have a massive drop, the price never goes below the previous peak. Again take 2018 case, the previous peak was $1200 and after the drop finished price was 2.6x higher than that peak.

In simple terms you can't expect price to go below $20000 (previous peak) or if history repeats not below $52k!!

P.S. Either don't use the history for your future predictions, or use it correctly!!!

really?

well. in january i could buy milk at (uk prices) £1.10 for 4 pints(2litres)
in march it became £1.50
over 30% rise in 3 months..

bitcoin went from (using topic creators cherry picked data points)
$1200 2013- $20,000 2018
thats a 16.66x in 5 years. (1666%)
a 3.3x in 1 years. (333%)
a 0.833x in 3 months (83%)

here you might be saying 30% in 3 months vs 83% is still not acceptable..
but.. the difference being.

for £1 you get less millilitres of milk per month.. (30% inflation)
but with btc you get more millilitres of milk per month (83% deflation)

meaning people get a better deal on value using bitcoin than using fiat

..
all im saying is that fiat value is not stable.
yes people are not getting their 30% inflation in minimum wage.. but when actually looking at the price of goods.. fiat inflation is bad. and not stable..
more people are moving into poverty with fiat. and more people are moving OUT of poverty in btc

At that is the definitive proof, that bitcoin is not yet sound money.

if you mean the swings from high to low between each ATH then you are correct. large swings.

but if you are looking at the monthly high low.. you are incorrect

for instance between the 2013 ATH of ~1200 and the 2018ATH of ~$20k
then you can see a crash in-between down to ~$200 (jan 2015)..which is basically where your 85% number came from

but if you are looking at the weekly/monthly/yearly. you would instead see
that ~$1200 becomes  ~$614 (down trend)
that ~$614  becomes $915 (up trend)
that ~$915  becomes $428 (down trend)
that ~$428  becomes $662 (up trend)
that ~$662  becomes $208 (down trend)

which is not 80% but less of a correction monthly/yearly view.. more like 50-70%

yet by you trying to pair 2013 to 2018 numbers and pretend nothing positive happened in-between, which is ignoring lots of the mini waves in-between

what you are also ignoring are the events that caused those ATH pumps and ATL crashes in between.

the 2013 pump was the transition from GPU to ASIC causing a massive price support rise
the jan2015 crash to ~200 was due to the MTGox scandal
the 2018 pump to $20k was due to large investment by institutions that benefit from certain newly added features to the code allowing altnet/sidechain locks

these events are unique in-of themselves and not repeatable so should not be used as target points to pretend that history repeats itself to the same magnitudes.
becasse they were event driven due to events unlikely to occur again to such magnitudes

instead take the more regular spikes and dips and get a more detailed view of multiple hypes and corrections. rather then cherry picking just a couple massive ones and pretending those massive ones will repeat

Yes my moto is "if in doubt zoom out" and trying to live by it.

I made a recent purchase at the top recently, not ashamed, as it's all experience. I am always tempted to sell at a 25% loss but keep slapping myself, the second I sell is the moment it shoots back up.

Guess I just have to put that money away now and wait till it comes back, it's a top 10 altcoin.

History has its voice and it can be repeated or not. Bitcoin has big cohort wallets around $23k so it is very possible to see huge capitulation around this. From $23k to $18k is possibly a last capitulation area which might triggers a new massove bull run for Bitcoin.

Additionally, make sure you read Glassnode insights which bases on on-chain data that never lies you.

Short term pain, Long term gain

I was looking at the "ALL" view on tradingview and measuring the drops from swing high to swing low on the weekly or monthly from 2012 to 2022 and the average drop was around 70% to 85%..

We are currently only 50% from ATH in Nov... Should we expect to see another 30% here taking bitcoin from anything such as $18,500 to $12,500???