Topic: Bitcoin Bearish short term but Bullish long term (Read 487 times)

Someone just tried very hard to force a technical breakout on the daily open. I was watching the charts and it looked like one entity market bought at least 2K BTC on Coinbase Pro. They seemed determined to push the market up until the local high from August 23rd was broken, painting a higher high on the chart:



I hate when people try to push the market around like this. It can lead to days and days of chop. We're still a long ways away from a true technical breakout. The mid term downtrend line stands around $11,200 and the pivot to break is $12,320.

Even short term the price can be argued to be bullish still.   We are elevated and maintaining that position for the moment.    We are above the 200 day average but below the 50 day.     I think we go sideways to down but the negative case has yet to be proved and if we keep current pricing it will eventually rise again I think.    Many speculate on news positive and negative events that might trigger a position change but so far its only moved out of a regular rise but not to any trend beyond that.   Hence we're in a speculative phase, I cant call it bearish just yet and being in the 10k region has to be considered very positive by any view.

Of course, it would since we are done already at the bearish season and it's the right time now for the bullish season. We were still so lucky to have a price of $10,000 it's not that bad compared to the times when Bitcoin was in a super-duper low dip that almost hit $3,000. Lucky for us the market changes its pace real quick this year.

Unambiguously, all the expectations of the bear and bull markets are associated only with increasing their money.  But it seems to me that we should think more about the real future for the entire cryptocurrency, in order to concentrate all investor funds in the most promising projects, and stop supporting those moments that today have practically no value, and are supported only by speculators on exchanges.

i agree, $10k isnt going to hold. i think we see $8k before $13k. whales are painting a picture of a solid $10k nice psychologically perfect round number bottom. nope, way too obvious for those that have been around awhile. they would have been better using the $9k area as to pretend there is resistance at $10k. those who are buying now will get tested by a shakeout.

I don't think Bakkt deserves that kind of praise. It hasn't done anything yet to consider it a fundamentally important development for Bitcoin.

I personally don't like the fact that we're continuously going back to the $9xxx levels, which if you do it a few times too many, we'll confidently break it to the downside. People then will blame Bakkt for having failed because the price didn't go up, while in reality the price movements we're seeing aren't related to Bakkt at all.

On top of that, Bakkt has likely bought enough coins to serve their clients, so there isn't really a need for them to add more to their position unless they run out, which I don't expect.

I think fluctuation usually not controlled, isnt it? I mean changes in prices do move very quickly up and down when fluctuations occur. but right now the market is not that bad right? prices are still stable in the range of $10k. the worst may only fall a few percent and not fall below $9k.

With Bakkt launching in September 23? I don't think there's enough time to be bearish. That's how many days left? Thirty days? I'm sure if Bitcoin dumps strongly anytime, it would quickly be bought up leaving a lot of buyers with no time for cheaper bitcoins.

But when you zoom out into the monthly candles something interesting reveals- Market seems to be mimicking the 2017 bull nd crash. Nevertheless, I'm happy about this current ranging that the market is experiencing. It helps with swing trading.

I prefer looking at the 20-week EMA. It seems more reliable looking at the 2016-2017 bull market. I think 2016 is a good parallel for where we are today. You can see some nice wicking below the 20 EMA (currently around $9,000) in April and August 2016 so maybe lower prices aren't off the table yet:

I'd say short term neutral, long term bullish.


Right now the price is bouncing off the 100 day Moving Average. This support line acted as the floor for the entire last bull cycle. Earlier in the bull market (like now) sometimes the price would hang around it for a bit, later in the bull market, during the exponential expansion of 2017 it would just come back at touch the 100d MA and then bounce straight back up. That support line is right at 9900 or just under it as i type this. Twice in the past week it has hit it. After two months of correcting from the June surge bitcoin is back to its basic support.

I don't know how long it'll stay around the support, it could be days, it could be weeks or more. But going lower from here is very unlikely as there is no reason to believe that the bull market will suddenly stop just after it started. This looks like early 2016 right now, the price having finished its early bull cycle expansion, now consolidating for a while to start the second phase of the bull market. The price chart looks healthy and great, with bitcoin riding along support. I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin rises off support in the next few weeks which would make this the last time we see 10,000s.

So I'd say: next month neutral to slight bull, next 6 months bullish as the bull market progresses to its midpoint.

I am not even sure that the chances of bitcoin dropping even below $9000 is even there for now till further notice, although there is possibility of it dipping that low in future, maybe when the market crosses over to the new peak again, having a record of another new all-time high, then the market may drop to another bear market when everyone tends to cash out, maybe then, we can say there would be another great opportunity to re-invest at a value less than that again which we still cannot completely predict.

The future of bitcoin is only known to God and we can only prepare to the best of our knowledge and capacity for the future, no one knows if there would just be an agreement by all the country’s leader to accept a single currency, ten bitcoin would be the solution to it.

How much time in long term?

I know it will happen though but since I have been monitoring bitcoin I would not want to be left behind.
They have been making more bitcoin while I am just holding.

From now on, I want to buy and sell to increase the number of bitcoin that I have.

Today is a perfect day for bulls after recent 300 dollars drop

Long term is for sure and I will vouch for that. Aint history already the proof of it?
Some of us here might have bought at $300 and now are still in hold because they know they can make more profit than risking it in an exchange.

Agreed, and the market here is for all the people without any form of discrimination. Even an user who can afford few dollars can be an investor of bitcoin. Volatility will be throughout, and the big investors were the one who suffers with massive drop in the portfolio value in a short time period. This way I believe in holding unlike the volume of investment for long term.

Investing in cryptocurrency is really for the people that have a very strong heart really because if you dint have, many people will just be falling sick when they see the price of bitcoin grow today, and by the time they wake up next day, they see that it has declined, and they will be filled with regret of not taking action, but as someone who is strong like you want them to be, they will only try to spot out their own mistakes from it and understand that it could happen at any time and to anyone because of the volatility of the market.

Most investors just need to make sure that they invest in coins that will not go out of function in future, once a project is still active, volatility would not be much of a problem because the volatility will not be there forever.

Like it did for several times, price fluctuations seem to be uncontrollable. Will not be a surprise as to be in a roller coaster and this market twist is helping ti make more gains. Some of us are looking for the bear season for them to buy more coins while the others are waiting for the market to rise up to sell their cryptos. This is what it makes the market going up and down, and there is no need to wonder and makes some complaint.

We should look at the bigger picture here, what we have seen is just a minor correction, that what's been happening since we made a run from April-Aug. There will be times that we thought that the bears has taken over the market again. And the next thing we know, the bulls are back and people started to FOMO again. So I would not be surprise to see roller coaster ride and then investors taking the opportunity for every dip to fatten their wallet.

As long as the outlook seems bullish there is really no reason to fear the bears if they happen, we have hit as much as 11.8k I think on this recent rally and now we are back under 10.5 already which is basically a short term bear like you mentioned however as long as that is the limit we fall into and not under 10k I fear nothing since it is easy for bitcoin to increase 10%+ and when it is high price that it falls like 10.5k for example that means we can reach to 12k or even above next time we rally high, however when it goes under 10k when we rally we stay under 12k, that is why it is important where it will bottom out, if it is over 10k then we gonna break a good wall, if it is under 10k then same thing will keep on happening time after time until it is broken.

The bulls are taking it slow and steady and I think the way they are playing it is really a very healthy one for investors, there has not been major dumping because the movement has been gradually and not that sudden continuous increase that usually make people doubt the movement, at least with this one, the market is being pumped a little, stopped and people get use to that current pump.

The weaker ones becomes eliminated before other bulls proceed, as we pause sometimes and some withdraws their investment, it reduces the rate at which we could have major dump in future and I think this is what has really curtailed the pump for a while now, before any major dumping could occur now, that would be after the next bull run.

Its been long time that bitcoin playing around $9K to $13K. We haven't face huge dump during that period and most likely bull mode is more stronger than bear. Because on last small bear we did not seen bitcoin below $9K but we seen above $12K on last small bull run. That's why I can say bull is stronger. Still I believe bitcoin isn't  bear mode currently.

that still doesn't make the movements bearish though. and as you said it yourself it is time for accumulation in other words if you consider this time to be an accumulation phase (which i also agree with by the way) then you are saying that we are in a bull market.
and so far that has been the case with all the similar patterns on the charts. we see these sideways moves for a long time which indicate accumulation, there are some concerning drops during that time which leads some people into believing it is bearish (bear trappped^TM) and then the big rise occurs surprising everyone who weren't planning ahead during the accumulation.

Bearish perhaps on the very low time frames, but not if you zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

We're forming a very large bullish pennant as we speak, and if it ends up breaking in the direction of the current trend, which is up, we'll blast through this year's high and potentially stress the all time high. If we add that the block halving is inching closer and closer, it adds to the probability of this pennant to break out to the up side.

But you have to look at the bearish side too, and this is admittedly very ugly in case of a break out to the down side. If this plays out I personally aim at a bottom somewhere between $7000-$8000 but don't rule out a sub $7000 wick. Great opportunity for those who look to buy lower though.

You don't have to be a bear to short an asset. Most of the shorts are from unbiased traders just following what the charts present them. Today they can be short, but tomorrow they might shift to a long position.

The more rational traders don't focus on much other than the very short term, and the short term has been in favor of a more bearish outlook, while the mid to long term is still bullish overall.

I do however agree that accumulation is a smart choice. If you only allocate a small percentage of your investment account to each entry point, you should be able to buy the market down for a long time would it keep sinking.

Last few hours have been pretty continuous dumping, Bitmex funding rate is currently at 0.0295% and predicted to go to 0.044% interestingly even though price has been going down- probably from people longing into this. Dump has temporarily stopped near the $10.9K level, though it does seem like there's still some room to go down still. RSI's hit the teens on the hourly and sitting right above 30 on the 4H, MACD seems like it'll flip red on the daily soon. Monitoring this closely, but still keeping my bids up.

That is what I believe also, this correction might have been for so long, and it feels like everyone is confused about the next target, even if the next target ends up going downward, all I know is that bitcoin has a very high chance right now of starting its bull run at any time because we are already in uptrend and I don’t think that there is anything that will really make the market to crash right now below imagination.

This current bears are just the ones mainly doing shorts which is really dragging us back, but I know that sooner or later, the bulls will fully take over the market and the bears will have very little chance of taking over the market again until bitcoin reaches another new ATH, now is when people should deem fit to just be gathering rather than selling.

And now it just turned under $11,000 again. Back to $10,985.



Time to start buying again, accumulate more guys we have plenty of time left. I think this will drop more within the next few hours.

We can't expect that it will turn back into $4k before it finally is in the bull run. TA's is not really accurate and even we look into the chart last year, we can see its difference. We can't think that nor to have a high percentage of getting it high back then as it did last 2017. The current price looks good and feels that the market still healthy, it is enough to be comfortable with the market performance even not showing bull run this year.

It seem bitcoin need to go down a bit before next bull run. The buying pressure does diminish whenever bitcoin cross $12,000 for more than a week now. A fall to $10800 resistant turned support level might trigger that in the next few days. The volume and momentum indicators are showing indecision! the bear will get weaker when Bitcoin get below $11,000.

People are always surprised when the price of bitcoin goes down and it is being going on for a long time, even i consider it as an opportunity if the price goes down so that i could enter the market before the big rally, all of my expectations are considering that the price would rally and break another all time high valuation after halving like we saw in the past and hopefully we will see the same trend this time too.
I would't be surprised if the market is a bit bearish for the entire month.

It's not--bitcoin right now is above $11k, and that's not bearish at all. 

I'm also not sure you can really tell if something is "bullish" in the long-term.  This all sounds like financial news media gobbledygook, doublespeak, and ultimately utterly meaningless.  OP probably has read too many news reports about the stock market and is trying to crowbar the terminology into the current bitcoin market.  Truth is that nobody knows what's going to happen with bitcoin even in the short-term.  Demand could easily dry up, even though I don't think it's going to. 

I'll light a candle for your TA analysis, eh? 

you are basically predicting which way the sideways is going to go next and call it bearish. whenever we are in a similar situation like these days it becomes harder and harder to predict when the breakout happens because we get closer to it every day. lets not forget that we have been in this range for nearly 2 months now and during that time the range is getting tighter with higher lows. in other words we are just too close to that breakout which makes these days more bullish than bearish.

I would really like it that way than to see some big increase that will surely break down immediately just like what happened last time but I guess if the price would make a bearish movement for a couple of weeks perhaps it will accumulate a great momentum moving bullishly in the future, I guess we are seeing resistance from $10,000 USD back then $11,000 USD and now the price is trying to make it to $11,500 USD, This is a slow pace moving up and I am totally OK with this kind of movement because I really like a long term investment and trading and I am not used in short term one.

I've got some bids set up at the $10ks and staggered lower as well in case the support under us at around $11k falls as well. We've had several wicks into this area so far but no closes under it on the 1H from what I can see, we're likely going under $11k if this fails. Could certainly bounce right back up under $12k and perhaps break through this time as well.

From the chat, I think the bear has really gone away for the bull to resume technically. The last candle formed there is a good sign for a buy with combination of other TA.

I would be surprised actually if anyone were surprised by the most recent dump. It's been the flavour of the month if not 2 months past, profit taking at those highs and low volume pumps to push past 12k artificially.

Definitely my money is on a few more sub 10ks if not 8k or lower like you say, and way past December. That's not juat me being pessimist, though, contrary I think that it'll be better for the long run.

i don't think the terminology used here is correct at all.
a bearish trend happens in a much longer outlook that the one used here. you are too zoomed in and we can't call it bearish or bullish based on this short period. not to mention that you are looking only at the peak (hence the zoom) which makes the follow up somewhat of a retracement rather than being a bearish move.

if TA was like this, then anybody could choose any random peak and valley to draw lines that show any direction at any time!
but the reality is that you first need to choose the points correctly so that the lines you draw can be useful for making a speculation.

It does appear that way. That was a pretty decisive dump below the last couple local lows. Basically, bulls need to retake $12,000 in order to regain control. Otherwise gravity should do its job and start squeezing all the top buyers from the past week.

I'm still looking at mid-September for a resumption of the monthly bull trend. Until then, the $8K-$11K range is still on the table.

This scenario has given us the confidence to face our struggles despite of the prescence of bearish market. Don't worry about that, as long as bulls also tried to correct the discrepancies behind.

https://whaleagent.club/bitcoin-4-hour-equilibrium-broke-bearish/



Bitcoin seems to be bearish in the short term but bulls still have the advantage in the long term with uptrends on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.