Topic: Bitcoin breaking out of 2 month downtrend (Read 386 times)

On the time that it would really be moving sideways then it would really be that hard to tell on where it would be next in going.We dont have any fundamentals around and technical indicators does shows that it would

really be having that pumping situation but its seems it isnt really always the case because we know on how unpredictable this market is. Honestly, these kind of times are the most hardest part on taking up a decision
on which whether you would buy or sell on this point but if you are really that going for long term then it wouldnt really be that much of an issue since you could really be able to enter the market without having
no doubts because you are really that going for long term but if you are really taking up some short or day trade then it do matters a lot.

We are approaching bull run and it wont really be that shocking that we would really be seeing some gradual recovery when it comes to market prices which it isnt limited on Bitcoin alone.

The price of bitcoin now is 30k and whenever it move above 30k it does not become stronger, that is why I don't believe little increasing of bitcoin now as something, I can only believe that bitcoin price have rise very well is when the price is above 40k, and it's sure that since Bitcoin price moving so slow I believe that by the end of this year or next year the price will reach at least 50k, but predicting the price of bitcoin to rise above 50k that means many or more countries have adopted the currency of cryptocurrency  before the price  will increase up, bitcoin is like a speculation and baseless because the price is not constant

When enough people believes that bitcoin will go up in the future or will continue to go up that means they are going to buy, not all of them will buy which is why I said "enough" people, we can't have just a few, but if everyone trusts that then we are going to see it move.

I believe that we are at a stage where it is doing alright and then stopped but it could continue to go up a long time as well. It is obvious that we are not going to see it anytime soon, it will not be right away this week or something but it will definitely continue to go up. The trick here is that we shouldn't be really expecting the price to be an insane price level, it will be a good one but it is not going to be like 100k sometime soon, I am just expecting getting closer to 35k that's it.

Just like into that 20k price point on which it is really that hard to break out until some good news kicked in and we did able to break that point or resistance but it did really take a while and now we are seeing on the same situation or scenario on which the price keeps on stagnating on this point on which it isnt really that shocking anymore on having this kind of movement. We know that everything is really that unpredictable, it might really be looking bullish but it do ends up on being bearish which is something that a very common thing to see on this market which it would be normal that people would really be having that speculative approach.
Bearish run or even sideways movement is never been a shocking condition of the market and it might really be taking up so long that on those previous times on where we do able to encounter it.
This is why making up decisions would really be varying on someones experience and knowledge towards the market.

That is proven so many times before that the prediction even if coming from experts and long time investors fails and go sideways
meaning that this cryptocurrency market cannot really be predicted completely and another thing why people loves this investment
place because of its nature and that is volatility and changing speedly without notice .

One day you buy at this price expecting to grow then you fail, while on the next day you wanted dumping
but it goes climbing.

Proving that this is the place where we all love the action and the momentum from all sides.

I am not sure if it would be that simple to predict though. Because first of all we do not know if FED will increase it or not, of course we are predicting that it will but that doesn't mean that it will, it just means we predict it that it will and maybe we are wrong.

Assuming that they do, then it is not a good idea to go up first and then drop, it is a good idea to drop first and then go up. That way the last thing we did would be going up, if we end up failing to break over it, and then it goes back to like 27-28 for example, then if we start going up again there wouldn't be a FED deal to look in the short term and we can break over 31k range a lot easier that way. It's the smarter way of approaching this if you ask me.

Last two months Bitcoin resistance on area $28K until $30k and seems very difficult reach close to highest price until $40k, bad news every side actually with SC Commission investigating with Binance exchange bring bad impact how Bitcoin going down and looks stable on lower price. This year looks bitcoin still on downtrend moment because stuck and always failed break out above $31k and need good side close with halving on 2024 for bringing impact bitcoin back above $50k.

Still waiting moment for bitcoin back to higher price again, maybe when close moment with halving have chance for bitcoin can raise to higher price or has possibilities with new all time high price.

Yeah, why not, we are still Wednesday and we have 2 days to see whether there is a flip or the price remains this way or we would see a good pump. For me, might be better if we stay on this range and have a good support line, instead of a unnatural rise to $32k and then we see huge dump as everyone could be selling at that price to make profits. Gonna be interesting short term, or at least for the next 6 months as to what movement we will have. I will be leaning towards a $40k-$50k at the end of the year.

It's a nice analysis you have there @dragonvslinux. I got the breakout almost the same time as you, only that the price action had hinted me earlier and this couple some breakouts that occurred in some of my strategies that are not captured below.



Going forward, two main points should determine the fate of Bitcoin in the near future.

1. $31,000, this level must be convincingly broken upwards and the market must close consecutively above it for days before I can be sure of a continued bullish trend. We've had a false breakout above it and the market has had 5 consecutive closes below the level which is not yet a positive sign.

2. The bullish market is still not threatened even below $31,000, but a breach below the daily chart's trendline support at around $27,000 could activate another bearish phase.

^  But isn't it better if BTC breaks out of 31k - 32k resistance asap and pump to, let's say, 40k so when the Fed does their rate hikes BTC goes back down to 31k - 32k and turns that into support?

I think this week is gonna be crucial and that we'd know by Friday if there's gonna be an S/R flip or if we see BTC go back down and stay in the previous range.

So far, it seems that the resistance level is steadfast, and we were not able to reach the levels of 32K dollars, but re-testing the resistance level more than once makes it weak. In general, I hope that it will not be broken soon, because it is clear that we will witness two rounds of interest rate hikes during the next 3 months, which means that if the price does not break the resistance barrier now, it may not do so during the second/third quarter of this year.

I think "maybe" and "not sure" are both the same. But for me I pick yes. I'm positive that the increase will continue because I can see that the momentum is still there. If you believe that there is no more resistance then you should have joined us by picking yes. But, the resistance on $27k-$28k and $30k are already broken.

Now we are on our last mission and that is by breaking the $31k resistance level. So far, we only have 4 days left to end this month of June. It's not a long time but judging on the performance BTC is showing lately, I think it will be enough to reach $31k or even more than it. Let's just hope that no negative news will interfere to kill our excitement.

In March which could reach $ 30k and unfortunately the price continued to decrease for more than 2 months, this week the price could touch $ 30k and even reached $ 31600, this is proof that bitcoin has good power to rise, a good opportunity now is to keep buying , do not be tempted by small profits.

No one see that coming with all of those SEC issue and then current ones which are those non stop ETF's which it did really kick out that green run on Bitcoin and other altcoins in the market.

This is why TA's arent really that precise when it comes to prices because anytime it could really be f*cked up with these fundamentals on which no one is really expecting into.This is why its not really that something you could really be able make up conclusions basing up on what you do see on charts. This is why its better to have that approach which if you do need to make out
some adjustments with your analysis then do it. TA's arent sure but doesnt mean that they are irrelevant. It is really just that this market is really that really random.

You are right but if the news was expected then maybe you won't be surprised when the market is pumped, but you will just have a sack of money ready to invest before the whale reacts. All the positive and negative news is highly unpredictable, but it is always possible to make an analysis of what might support bitcoin and what might attack it. It's risk and reward, so it's only natural to get caught up in surprises sometimes.
 
News can affect the market, news can also be used as fundamental when you make an analysis. Not all analyzes are accurate, but you may get something good for staying optimistic about your investment plan. After all, we don't fully believe in analysis, so sometimes the interest in investing and accumulating it only comes when you have the opportunity and the budget.

Do you agree with me that almost all news that comes to the market is unexpected and unpredictable, not only with the SEC lawsuit against Binance but also news about ETFs, which is also very surprising for us? That's also part of the reason why I don't trust the analysis or the signals the charts show us. The market is unpredictable because of the news, because of the temporary manipulation of some whales, based on the chart really makes me suspicious.

That's why we shouldn't join in to panic sell, because that's a trap from the whales for us,
in fact Bitcoin broke $30k and of course we also have to be aware of the bulltrap, OK?.
make sure $30k is broken and the Bitcoin price is able to stabilize above it, otherwise we will return to $25k.

After being static for two months below the $28k-$25k level, the price growth of bitcoin surprised me today. I didn't anticipate the price to reach $30k in the early morning hours and hold there until the end of the day.

The rise in the price of bitcoin today has made me realize that, despite any negative cryptocurrency news we may have, it will only have a temporary impact on the price of bitcoin. Over time, bitcoin will outperform any negative crypto news by proving that it cannot be halted by the SEC or any other government that opposes it. Its price increase can happen at any time when we less expected

Volume continues to melt BTC movements may change and will choose the absolute direction until the close. I predict the movement of the altcoin when BTC is around $35k. The altcoin will walk from here. Bitcoin has broken the determined resistances and is showing resistance in the $ 30k band. The weekly $26,600 and $27,200 levels are key support areas. If it continues to stay above this support, i am hopeful for the market. It is possible for BTC to climb to $35k if it breaks the $31,300 resistance zone in the coming week and makes weekly closes above it. If this resistance is not broken, a sag below $26k appears.

Bitcoin is a highly volatile coin and market news affects BTC. ETF applications of large financial companies, especially BlackRock's application, created positive expectations and changed the price in BTC upwards.

So, the exchange of business firms in the US has been launched? I didn't catch this news and I only heard that they are going to have it but I didn't know it has already started operating, this exchange is the reason why SEC is doing everything it can to take down exchanges and cryptocurrency-related platforms in the US so that this exchange can be a success and more and more people use it.

However, Bitcoin users are probably happy to see this price hike but I believe just like me, a lot of people have missed this hike since this was not really expected and we were expecting a further dip at this point because of all the bad news that has been circulating in the market lately.

I also chose not sure; the market is extremely unpredictable, and the SEC lawsuit was completely unexpected and caused a major market crash that also affected Bitcoin. Now that it has been resolved, even though Bitcoin wasn't that greatly affected, it's recovering. On the one hand, I want to believe that Bitcoin is capable of achieving a further recovery, but on the other hand, the environment seems pretty uncertain. We can't predict what may happen in the upcoming weeks, as news keep pouring on a daily basis. Thus, I'm quite skeptical and supposing that if matters don't take a sudden turn for the worse, recovery should be expected somewhere during late 2023.

Indeed a solid observation. This observation suggests that we may need to wait and see how the market evolves over time before making any major investment decisions.

Bitcoin is performing pretty good at the moment, but we are currently in a bullish run? While I would like to view this situation positively, truth is that Bitcoin is currently testing prior resistance levels. Therefore, it may be a good opportunity for short-term investments with a cautious mindset.

After more than 2 months the price dropped and today it rose to $ 30k, I'm sure the increase will continue so that it makes many panic when buying, the best strategy is to buy when the price is cheap, and unfortunately many panic sell when the price is below $ 25k which happened last week, when the price was rising, many panicked to buy, but don't make the mistake again by selling when the market is red.

I chose not sure, and I'm not too surprised that 60% are voting "yes", it seems like everyone is starting Fomo as the market has rallied for the past 2 days. For me, I don't believe there is any resistance as bitcoin is unpredictable, there is no guarantee when bitcoin close above $31k in June, it will continue to rise without falling. The positive and negative news in the market are very unexpected, we can't control them, so don't expect too much on the resistance level that technical analysis always shows. When investing, I just like to go against the crowd, when people are too Fomo and believe that bitcoin will continue to rise, I will be more careful.

Generally, the market is unpredictable, if it is predictable, is likely that everyone will do the same thing and in this case either everyone will profit or no one profits. The Bitcoin market looks like the most unpredictable market among other financial markets, Bitcoin does what it wants to do at any given time. The game with Bitcoin is a patient one and no panicking, Bitcoin has a way of shocking the skeptics.
Hodl is just a keyword to overcome any shaking of weak hands.

$30k is the resistance now, although we have broken it in the last hours, it is still maintaining and the question is that if we can close out and sustain our run in the next coming days because of the hype surrounding the Spot Bitcoin ETF filling not just by Blackrock, but other companies too which caused a lot of FOMO and it just coincide with what the OP has put up prior to this big run. So again, we will have to see TA now making the right prediction or not. And the best thing to do right now is just continue what we have been doing for many months now, stack sats and not sell even though we have a rally because this is just the beginning and price could still go way up in the future.

No one can predict what bitcoin will look like tomorrow, but as investors, we all have the right to make our own predictions. You don't have to trust anyone but yourself, but you also can't forbid people from making their predictions. For me, predictions are just fun, and there is nothing to believe in them completely. With unpredictable assets like bitcoin, we should always have a plan for two scenarios and we will always have everything under control. If the market goes up, what will we do? If the market falls, what will we do? I think that's enough.

I voted as maybe. It seems too early for bulls to run fast. But I can say that it is strong to break the 31 thousand dollar resistance, so I am approaching maybe. But there is a really motivating environment to protect your bitcoins right now. If it can close above 30-31K Usd in June, it will have solidified the price base and will be a strong support at these levels. I also worry about a new FUD coming out on the market at any moment, so I can't be too positive and hype.

One thing I like about bitcoin is that it has a way to prove people wrong even the so called experts.
If you were on this reputation board last week, the type of news you would have read should be bitcoin going below $20k. Just a matter of few days bitcoin has proved them wrong and pumped above 30k.
Now, they are saying it will not last and we should be careful. After bitcoin failed the proposed 100k ATH as predicted by many experts,  I do not listen to them anymore.

Hopefully Bitcoin breaks out from $ 30k and stays above it, because this will be a good moment for the crypto market especially altocoins,
because from this of course altcoins will recover quickly and this will be the start of bullish in 2024-2025,
but if Bitcoin fails again to break and hold above $30k then it is the second time Bitcoin has failed.
so we have to be careful and prepare for bad things to happen and yes hopefully not.

It is impressive that we have seen such a good recovery in the bitcoin price in the last few days.
Price is very close to testing the $31k resistance and $30,800 has been touched so far. I'm really surprised by the way bitcoin is going against FUD, but let's hope we can see bitcoin price holding strong above $30k after today's breakout.

Let's see what happens next, but I think we still have high hopes for a $35k high in June. $30k support shouldn't be that strong, but if we do break through $33k it will be decent support.

I think all these news are just a way to say that we are going to do fine, doesn't mean that we will, but also doesn't mean that we won't. Even if some of them gets the attention of people, we are going to be doing fine. I think it is quite important to focus on that, and if we can, then we are going to be fine about it. I know that people are not really that great about it, and people are not that much hyped about any of this, but even if just one of them hits, that's going to be good for us.

I think it is important to remember that when we are at a level where it goes as well as hoped for, then it is going to be as much decent as it gets. Imagine lottery but with better odds, if we hit it just once with one of the good news, we will do fine.

I pretty much was predicting the uptrend. It is a sort of reclaiming Support level, so I think now we can break even $32k or $33k. Let's see how this goes.

@ImThour what do you think of what happened.

Honestly, I was surprised. I did not expect to see the breach again above $27,000 during the second quarter of this year. Perhaps I expected it to happen towards the end of the year when the tightening packages lessen, but I am not optimistic in the short term. We have a strong resistance level at 31,000, and we have an expected interest rate hike of about 25 basis points for the next two rounds, so all that is happening is profit-taking in the short term, before we witness a correction that may deepen by more than $25,000.

I don't think it's true that the market has only seen momentum, there are also plenty of other factors to consider:

* Highest 6/12 hr volume in months.
* Breaking out of 2 month downtrend
* Breaking back above 50 Day MA
* Getting back above 200 Week MA

While there were plenty of reasons to consider the correction would go deeper than $25K, the point is that after breaking back above $27K it negated a lot of the short-term bear trend. Price has remained in the structure of a 6 month uptrend that ultimately often supersedes a 2 month downtrend, for obvious reasons. This isn't about the rally in the past few days, it's about the past 6 month uptrend still.

I was wondering what happened all of a sudden when the price went down and then the price started to rally like a jet pack attached to move around $30k once again . Was not aware of the ETF and thank you for the notification, looks like i am not following these market news and was not aware of the crypto exchanges as well, so another hype train exchange is launched after FTX demise  .

It seems to me that it is too early to talk about a rally. In these few days we have only seen momentum, which could potentially be a rally in the near future. There is indeed a lot of good news now and maybe the bitcoin price correction will end this June. It has been a long time since we had such good green candles on the chart.

The SEC and Binance have an agreement, many ETFs are waiting for approval, and as mentioned by laurenB7742, a large amount of bitcoin has been bought, all of which are positive things for the price of bitcoin to rise again. Many people fear that this rapid increase will not be sustainable, but I think bitcoin can still break through $30k this time, but to reach $35k as you say is very unlikely. That is not an unattainable high price, but with this news, it is not strong enough to make Fomo cause a surge in the market. No matter how the price goes up, as long as below the old ATH, we shouldn't miss it, let's accumulate as soon as possible.

Bitcoins are currently at almost 29,000 USD. So yes, we have seen some upward trends right now. This month, this might be the all-time high price for bitcoins. So yes, maybe this time Bitcoins will stop after reaching 35,000 USD. The reason for the recent upward push is not clear, but yes, we can see that there are more buy orders than sell orders on all the exchanges. Let’s not wait any longer and buy as many bitcoins as we can so that we can store and hold them for a long time and make the most profits out of them.

Can you give me the link to those new exchanges? I have not heard about this news. Yes, there have been a lot of ETFs in the week since Binance and the SEC reached an agreement. But I just found another piece of information that a large amount of bitcoin has been bought, and that is believed to be the leading cause of today's price increase, not ETF news. ETF news is nothing new to us, so I don't think it has a significant impact on the market.
But after all, this news won't prolong bitcoin's rally, I don't think bitcoin will be able to move higher in the coming days, we will be more careful.

first time that it takes 29k again from that date april 14th so indeed that this might be a good sign of us to see green longer again.
5 weeks is really long to see how we maintain that low position 25-27k at least now there is a light again?
I think Bitcoin can , maybe sooner ? or at least early next quarter .

The recovery from the latest drop has been impressive. I can’t believe we’re touching back above $29K so soon after the Binance and Coinbase drama. Feels a lot like the runup to the halving has started. There are a couple speed bumps along the way to get over still, but it’s starting to get exciting thinking about what is quickly approaching.

Votes already shown confidence from the community that will  be there any time soon as we are now nearing to close the second quarter , I think we will be aiming to at least record breaking that April up.
and if that happens then maybe we will be seeing 35k to be the next spotted price .

A lot of development today which caused Bitcoin to gain around $2000 in price. Another Bitcoin etf and also another refiled Bitcoin etf. So far there are 3-4 different etfs in total this week alone.

Also some new crypto exchange went live which is owned by Citadel and Schwab, it was announced in Sept but went live this morning.

These development are the root cause of the strong rally we just had.

There is no logical reason for the recent rise, and therefore it is difficult to break the two resistance levels at $29,000 and $31,000. Therefore, I think that before Sunday, if the price did not succeed in maintaining a level above $31,000, we may return to the $26,000 levels.

Given the trading volumes, everyone will start selling from this point to take profits.


Have you considered that Binance will try to use bitcoin liquidity to stabilize BNB price or at least to make things look stable? The last thing they need now is for their currency to drop a lot with all this regulatory news.

Perhaps, after BNB price stabilized, bitcoin sales stopped, and therefore there was no selling pressure on the price, so the price increased.

I too recently said I was expecting a bit more sideways over the next few months, so that the price would rise a bit later in the year, but with bitcoin you never know. Let's hope that this is the start of a sustained rise and we don't have an upside breakout that takes us back to the $25,000 area.

The summer months are not usually very busy in the stock market, but I remember that in the summer of 2017 there started to be a sustained rise that ended in a bull market at the end of the year. It was not the same point in the cycle as now, so I don't think we will have a bull market before the next halving, but probably nice rises.

Just yesterday everyone was pessimistic about the market and no one thought bitcoin would rise again this June. But it was overnight when bitcoin price went up over $2k and at one point hit $29k, and we're aiming higher. It is true that bitcoin always brings us surprises and as always, bitcoin is never predictable. I'm not good at technical analysis and I don't fully believe in it either. But I predict bitcoin can break through $31k and hit higher targets before correcting again.

The lowest point Bitcoin reached with pressure was 24,700$, but it bounced quickly from this point and broke through 26,000$, then 27000$, and now Bitcoin is at 28700$, Bitcoin easily surpassed all these numbers in a short time.

The scenario now depends on the market's reaction during the upcoming period, where positivity is confirmed or we see some corrections. Although I see the positivity clearly, therefore we can talk about anticipating new heights to 31,000$ in a short period.

Yes, of course, that's possible, I think there's nothing wrong if you always have a positive perspective on the price to make you more motivated in holding your Bitcoin and I voted Yes.

The resistance I think it's pretty normal since after the correction of the price it's expected that there's a spike in the price.

Another reason could be because of BlackRock who filed for a bitcoin exchange-traded fund with the SEC, who else knows about this news recently?

The tension made by Binance fud  has been erase out so maybe there are more people speculating about a recovery after those dump happen when controversy against US Sec spread out. But now since we see the price surprisingly up  maybe we can see a retest for bitcoin to even reach at $30k so let see if we can see more than this and reach that $31k since provably it could start a hype which bring good atmosphere on crypto space.

I was mildly surprised when I checked the price today and say it jump by almost $2k. Of course in Bitcoin it's a normal occurrence, but this recovery feels quite quick, I suspected that the $26k range will last for a lot longer. But I wouldn't be surprised by more gains, because everyone expects a bull run in next year after the halvening, so it would be logical to start accumulating now, which could be causing these price spikes when some big buyers do it. But then the price is knocked down a bit by short-term speculators who take their short-term profits.

I'd say it's possible - but I would slightly imagine that $30k will be the closing price this June.
It would be sad if traders had to panic sell their bitcoins right after the price showed a recovery - but that's up to them especially if they are making short term profits.

The $31k resistance remains strong should bitcoin not break $30k in June. But wait - we still have more than a week left before the month-end close. I'll wait until I reach $30k, and I think the fundamentals are still pretty good.

in my opinion this price recovery has a reason, and the reason is probably related to this:

BlackRock applies for spot Bitcoin ETF — a US first if approved


We are back to the old story in which the SEC keeps postponing, postponing, postponing, postponing and in the end rejects it. but as this is a company with a lot of money and a few days ago I saw a lot of comments on the youtube channels in which people showed a lot of optimism with this news and that they would buy a lot because in case of approval the price will go up a lot and next year in April we have the Bitcoin halving so buy now is a good opportunity that a lot of people are seeing but people in a few weeks will realize that approval is something that will take a long time

many people still do not know the past in which the SEC was postponing and rejecting these bitcoin ETFs, that's why these new people are deluding themselves and buying a lot, because they think that everything will be approved very quickly, anyway I would only see it with optimism if the price reaches 32000$ and stays above this price for a long time, while it is below 32000$ there will still be a great chance that the price will drop a lot and with the global financial crisis, being optimistic at that time is not something very realistic and technical analysis is not it has worked very well in this cryptocurrency market in my opinion

I dunno, there's a lot of doubt about that. Anyway we've had a lot of positives lately supporting more push to test the resistance you mentioned, but I believe the possibility of failure also cannot be discounted. If that resistance is not broken then a correction could ensue, but not any lower below $27k.

Really, I should be pretty happy with the little pump today, my spirits are up again. Keep holding.

Being optimistic right now makes sense, but personally I prefer not to be too optimistic. Ie not hoping for re-testing $30K or $31K within the next 10 days, as a fast move from $25k to $30K would likely create a pull-back towards $27K by the end of the month, creating an indecisive monthly candle. Whereas if prices where to hold steady for the next 10 days then it would be a much more bullish monthly candle.


Personally I get the impression that most who wanted to take profits, or get out of positions, did so previously around $30K resistance level. But hey, that's just opinion anyway.

If bitcoin rise again it is not from this month again but it might be feom next month. This month bitcoin price will be in between $26k/27k . And from next month it might have some indications to climb the ladder. And not really from next month the ladder will be climbed but towards the ending of the year that will be when the signal of bull will manifest for everyone to see. I have sent different predictions here but I don't think the $31k will come to pass in the next months but it will go up to sustain the market.

Sometime last week when BTC was at 26k, From my analysis, I called out that BTC should be getting a bounce at $24.5k, and if BTC failed to do so that $15k would be the next target, and exactly Bitcoin bounced from the zone, therefore having Bitcoin met my price
expectations and having got a bounce from that support, I strongly believe that Bitcoin is heading up from here to create new highs.

Maybe it's time to be optimistic about something different than before when the optimism of traders and investors has increased due to some underlying reasons lately. I don't even expect $31k to test, but hope we can see price hold and the month close in that area.

But despite all that, panicked traders and holders eager to take quick profits will certainly have an impact on how the month closes out. But I believe the best closing price to expect later this month is $28k - $29k.

Yes thanks. I always double check my topics but had completely missed that error.


I get the impression that if price will reach $31K within the next 10 days, then the month will still close around $27K or $28K for one of those bullish but indecisive candles, similar to February. That said, if the month did close >$30K that would be very bullish imo. A nice long bullish wick to the downside followed by highest monthly close in over a year...

Already the bullish wick to the downside showing buying pressure below $27K is good enough for me though if it closes in the green, better than testing the highs and returning to the opening price imo.

Don't rush, it should be $31k right?

I'm tend to think this trend will retest the $31k resistance over the last 10 days of June. I'm not sure $31k will failed to break yet, but some people might try to take profit in that area which will probably make it difficult for price to hold above $30k. Nice to see the percentage increase today, but as I write the price has fallen below $28k again.

I think its good for bitcoin to consolidate for weeks and then break-out upwards, kind of like we have been doing since November of last year. What we don't want to see is these massive daily and weekly candles where we gain +20% week after week.

Generally with bitcoin when that happens it means we are going to near a top and then start another sideways market and bear market. We need to see bitcoin up go slowly and not with violent upward moves, that usually indicates that the top is near.

Price hasn't been climbing that fast either short or long-term based on Bitcoin's usual price action. For example today is around +4% and the week is +6%. It's slightly above average volatility, but otherwise probably just seems like it's moving fast because price has been moving so slowly for the past 2 months. Based on the Daily RSI for example, price is only just turning bullish after being neutral for almost two months, so far from overbought or anything like that. In fact, there is a lot of room to the upside if some of the shorter-term metrics cool-off in the meantime, especially given the break-out is barely even confirmed yet.

We'll now when price is moving quickly because the Daily rise will be more than +5%, likely around +10% with another weekly candle around +20%. This is the usual outcome of breakouts after months of consolidation.

Once it surpasses $32k, there could be another decline in a few days and then pump again to $35k.  It's climbing so fast actually which is worrisome but it looks like it is going to break 31k in a few days. Amazing that the herd is running already 6 months before this year end. They are not waiting for the halving.

Since big institutions are getting ready for this rally as well. Blackrock, Fidelity and its ETF approval will be a good reason to breathe and hold!

It's a good point that the bearish news of SEC lawsuits overall had virtually no bearish effect on Bitcoin. Obviously fundamentally it shouldn't, as Bitcoin isn't referenced, but given how the market functions a lot on sentiment I'd assume that if the market was truly bearish then this would have had a negative effect on the overall market. Instead Bitcoin went sideways and has begun to recover since these announcements.

I'm not even convinced the recent ETF news is what has instigated this rally either, it seems to have simply negated the negativity of the SEC lawsuits, therefore leaving Bitcoin with a relatively neutral sentiment. With that neutrality and after a 2 month downtrend, it seems quite logical Bitcoin would continue to the upside, given it's effectively been in a broader uptrend since the start of the year now.

That's my take on the sentiment side of the market, technical analysis aside.

I think it will test $31,000. Even if it's going to fall, it won't fall until I do this test. This is how I feel as the price broke the resistance trendline. Especially the news and lawsuits that have emerged in recent weeks have not done any harm to bitcoin. This news was not about bitcoin anyway. It took a while to test the 31k because of this news. This was the only negative impact of these news on Bitcoin.

All in all, if I have to wrap up my post, my guess will test $31,000.

As the title suggests, Bitcoin appears to breaking out of it's two month long downtrend after reaching the highs of $31K on April 14th, that followed with lower lows and lower highs.



As can be seen by the chart above, today price is breaking the resistance trend-line as well as moving back above the 50 Day MA that price has remained below for the past 5 weeks.

Do you think this break-out will continue to the upside in order to re-test the highs around $31K, or will it fail and price will fall lower?

As of typing price hasn't made a higher high above last month high of $28,450, but is getting close.