Topic: Bitcoin Breakout (Read 692 times)

Yes, that's right, bro, some of the bitcoins that I have I still save, I don't spend, I want to be as wise as possible in managing the assets I have.anyway in the trend If the break out penetrates the trend line that I drew from several time frames, the momentum must be right.
we are prepared from the percentage of volume and resistance, especially some types of income and sales that are very helpful for me, bro
it's not that much of a profit that I can get if I only sell from assets that have just arrived or payments from anywhere and anyone. At least some of them have plans for finances in the future, that's what I experienced and carried out bro, your advice is very good.

$39k today, so the avalanche or sell-off continue as to this hour. So to much for the pump to $48k as the market reacts negatively to so much news, specially the Feds raising up the interest rate, and the inflation rate of US is in highest in 40 years and of course the war itself. I guess we need to go down to even lower to be able to see $50k in the future. Maybe around $30k before we can go up and rise to $50k or more before the end of the year.

Earning/selling weekly? that sounds like a signature campaign? It's okay to sell it whatever the price of btc because you have only earned them. Waiting for a better opportunity to sell are only good if you invest your own money in btc however if you badly need a fund for your family and you don't have any sources of income or no other forms of money available, your last resort would be selling your bitcoins.

@maydna
I don't think they will be sad if btc price didn't drop but they are going to be happy actually. No one wants to lose but all of us here only demand for stability in the price and of course the best thing is if the price will start on pumping.

we are in the second week of quarter 2 means this is somewhat far from what we are expecting to come the whole first quarter.

Maybe we can see what we wanted to achieve in the end of this quarter? but yes the 50day average must be maintained for us to trust what we wanted .
waiting is part of strategy but defend on what our capacity is we may see changes in the following months and surely we need to keep Holding or sell it all now.

Yes, that's right, my friend. I own and sell bitcoins almost weekly for my family's daily needs. The green chart had a data boost a while back, and for those analyzing the 4-hour hat-trick, that's cool.
I still keep some assets on some networks, maybe it is a good thing to trade bitcoin again from a few folds in the wallet, some investors and traders I believe they will be sweet in times like this. bonus phase of patience waiting for bitcoin trend change

^^ Well we will have to see, the market is fairly young, I mean the data is like 10 years old and we can only extrapolate the data that we currently have. But so far still true but then again, as bitcoin's narrative has change, maybe this so called 4 year cycle will have to skewed at some point in time. But do remember that during halving, the reward for mining  bitcoin transaction is cut in half and bitcoin inflation is also cut, making the demand soar in the future, hence increase in the price.

I do agree that the cycle is like that, but at the same time I do not believe that it would be something that would be a "must". I mean it is usually like that, but it could be a bit different as well. Imagine a situation where the cycle could be broken, like after halving it becomes something that is a bit of a big deal and everyone suddenly gets scared.

If the next halving doesn't have a big hype and a huge increase then we would have a lot of people who end up making a big scare and everyone would start to sell. In order to fix that, we need to make sure that everyone knows the fact that there isn't an expectation for that, just to make sure that even if it doesn't happen, we should be fine.

 Looking at how its not doing so well right now, I could say that there is a good chance it may not do so well later on either. We just need to realize that breakout "could" happen, but there is a big possibility that it may not happen neither. So all we can do right now is that wait for it, but also make sure that you have some DCA or stop loss in place so that you wouldn't be hurt if the price goes down. We moved between 38k-42k prices for a month before the last good increase, we are down to those levels now meaning we could see 38k all over again, and we should be prepared for that AND the 50k+ possibility all at the same time.

Even if the market is not on its best shape still we can really assume a market recovery since this somehow a normal cycle with bitcoin and even though the 4 year cycle is far to come we can say that this year is different compare before. Bitcoin is now really getting huge awareness especially on the mainstream, so I guess fear factor towards bearish season lessen up and I guess.we have more chances to recover faster after the dump that seeing those heavy dumps.

That is bitcoin cycle, every 4 years we see a massive pump - bull run and then followed by a long and bearish trend, a crypto winter. Nevertheless, the current price is nowhere -50% of our last ath.

Yeah, it could be that the market is fully tired and exhausted after it's run from March to $48K. But for sure, we might see it bouncing back again or worst, going down hard. We shall see what's April is for us.

The market is of course tired because they keep pumping, they want to get a profit by selling immediately, I'm sure a trend like this will last for a long time, and the market skyrockets again usually after 2 years, of course we still remember the trend every 4 years, and I follow its development and bitcoin usually drop again after 4 years previously happened in 2013 and 2017.

Right, it seems that we have been retracting this week though, and I would say that we are somewhat again on the bearish trend. Maybe we have reach market exhaustion after a huge jump from $30k levels to almost $50k, sure the bulls has reach some tipping point at this time so they have to relax momentarily. So it's interesting if we can just stay above $40k as this is a very critical support.

Definitely suffering a retraction right now with price trading below the monthly average.   See if we can maintain the 50 day average as the boundary, top prices were marked alongside the 200 day average.
  It wont breakout till we not only clear and above such averages but the momentum of gains means those averages are all trending upwards.  Observe all the other times this was true

then enter after the retest or when there's already a confirmation that bitcoin is totally in bulish situation, i mean at least after 1 or 2 green candle stick before entering to prevent fake outs. Actually sometimes i used that strategy but on this situation we need to use a higher time frame IMO if we really have doubts and afraid of false break out, infact buying at such level isn't late tho, so probably a good idea..

What happens is that people want to buy at the absolute bottom and without a doubt that can be difficult to time correctly, however buying when the price is way below its average price after a crash is relatively simple, in my opinion this is one of the best moments to buy as you will not find a better price when to do so, the only difficulty strives on being able to accept that maybe the price could keep going down after we buy and avoid panicking in the process.

The one thing people overlook indeed. Utility without access restriction.

And also why not everyone who claims they're buying gold or silver actually are. They're not stacking up bars and ingots, they're buying up certificates that say they own the metals tied to it. Worse, accounts in digital realms that have no way of proving they actually have that gold.

Of course, there are a lot of people buying Bitcoin like that -- usually the same ones buying gold without really requiring proof that they own what they think they do.

Sorry to tell you this but your experience is useless in bitcoin market since there is very little similarities between the two.

I can't predict things with the same certainty you do but all I know from my experience in bitcoin world ever since 2014 is that this statement has been made with a different number a thousand times. For example they said it is highly unlikely that bitcoin reaches $400 back in 2015 too and yet it not only did that but surpassed it by a lot.

You are absolutely correct about 50% of it and absolutely wrong about the conclusion you are making.
The "big" rises eventually stop but not until the mass adoption is reached. You are wrong because so far the adoption bitcoin had has been very small. Don't be fooled by some big player buying millions of dollars, we still have a very small percentage of people who are even aware of bitcoin and even a smaller percentage of them who bought it.

This makes no sense at all.
If there is no "rush" to buy something, there is no logical explanation for there being a "rush" to sell it under normal circumstances.

You are ignoring a very important distinction. All the things you mentioned are purely for speculation. You don't buy gold or silver or W to use it for something, they have no utility apart from being an investment.
Bitcoin does.

That's mainly the charts. I do see it and it does say breakout, but doesn't mean that it will happen neither. I think these things show what it should do and the market has a good outlook and that is what people talk about. When you look at the charts, people are hyped and they are interested in buying as much as they possibly could, which shows up on these indicators as well.

This is why I believe that everyone is hoping for a huge break out. It could happen, nobody says it can't happen, it could definitely happen but then we need to figure out a way to make sure we are not upset if it doesn't happen. At that point stop loss is the way to go in order to protect yourself and still get in.

With this very speculative market then you would really be finding out this would be totally no sense on trying to claim out something just on pure guess which is always been our behavior.

Its true that it would really be good if there would be some attached analysis on every price speculations which would really appealing to look at and not just some number guess and then
leave the others would the the rest.Of course the price is too unpredictable and there's no way nor precise thing that we could really predict on where price could go.

Price is not getting weaker but it is constrained still hence I dont totally agree with the OP title of a breakout.  We defeated and outlasted the prior downtrend so on balance we recovered part of those losses, good news but its not over the fight continues and we are not yet free and clear just yet.



Heres roughly how I see progress and how I would assess potential for futher gains now and next week etc.   The blue and yellow lines are 2 day and weekly averages, generally good regular gains will come as we trend above those.

Based on what are  you predicting all these? You should add facts or at least something to back your claims. Or else you are just randomly spitting numbers and saying that the price will go up. Everyone can do that. In fact most of those clickbait videos you watch on Youtube does the same. The market is very volatile and unpredictable. You can never accurately guess when the price will breakout or when it will start falling. If you invest based on those claims, then you will be risking yourself a lot. Instead, just keep on investing as much as you can afford to lose and hold for long term.

Question; Were you around when bitcoin went from $ 200 to $ 1200 in less than a month, or from $ 1200 to $ 19,500, or from $ 10,500 to $ 63k, etc., etc., etc.? You compare crypto with stocks and even commodities, and yet you admit that none of them have ever done anything like that again. Guess what, bitcoin did.


Sure thing, Mr. Schiff! 

I am going to make a statement that is not particular to Bitcoin but particular to my 47 years of experience in the market (stock and commodities).

It is 'highly" unlikely that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year or even next. Some new things when they come out do have big moves (like Bitcoin did originally) but once the newness washes away (as it had done with Bitcoin), going up is normally done on a slow basis. There are no more surprises occurring and no more "rush" to buy Bitcoin. Going down is always fast on all occasions, but going up when the newness is over, it much like the pace of a turtle.

I have seen this happen thousands of times with stocks and even commodities and very very few times have I seen the opposite.

I was there when Gold went from $180 to $900 in a few years. When Silver went from $5 to $50 in a couple of years. When W went from $20 to $350, etc., etc., etc. None of them have ever done anything like that again. For Bitcoin to double in price (if and when it does), it will take a good 2-4 years for it to happen.

Get off that cloud and join the real world. The silver lining is gone now.

If you had gotten out at $60,000, you could have bought 4 times more at 30,000 (instead of twice more) with the same amount of money. Wouldn't that be nice?

The break out is a welcome development to those that exercise patience not to sell when the price of bitcoin was $38,000 than to hold to see a bright future.  Now that the price of bitcoin has break out to $46,000 few days ago for traders to get ready for Massive pumping that is about to take place in crypto trading for investors to start earning something good from the market. It will be difficult for bitcoin price to decrease in this period of profits making than to increase higher for traders to use the opportunity to recover all their losses they experienced last year December 2021.

It's not, it's really not that hard to time it at all. When you see the price hit 68k, then drop to under 35k, you KNOW that it is a low price, you are 100% sure that it s a low price. We are talking about a 50% drop and you are not certain? Price reached from the top to 50% lower and at that point even if it is not "the bottom", like even if it could go down more, it is guaranteed that you are buying it a lot cheaper than you otherwise could during hyped days.

If you didn't, and if you missed out because you waited for even lower, that is on you but there were many of us who knew that the price would go up from there, even if it went lower at first, it would have been higher eventually and we bought it at that level.

It depends, if you are a trader then this is something unacceptable, as it is going to be impossible for anyone to recover from such losses, at most you should lose 1% in each one of your trades, however if you are a long term investor and the asset which you have selected is solid then such a drop is within the acceptable range, I know that many people would flinch under such a drop but if you have being invested in the asset for the long term then most likely you could still be in profits despite such drop.

But it's very difficult to time it and to know where in the dip so that we can buy a lot. So far the breakout is finished already, it's not fake break out but rather we may have reached it's top around $48,000. And now we are in a correction, although it's just the beginning of the month and many things can happen specially in the 2nd-3rd, so I will wait for that time frame and hopefully we can get into that $50,000 zone.

It would be nice if you want to make a purchase in the break out zone, we wait for confirmation or we wait for the price to retest again at the broken support level. Do not rush to buy, it is to anticipate market manipulation. If there is confirmation that BTC is going up, then the next target will be testing the resistance zone at 50K.

Do you mean that the bitcoins I have been buying every since they were worth $200 are now dumped down to be $40,000. Oh no I lostgained +19900%

But in all seriousness, what you are talking about only concerns day traders who rely on making profit on short term swings and if they didn't sell above $60k they have been doing it wrong. And if they sold but didn't buy back at the bottom they are doing it even more wrong!
For the rest of us who are investing in bitcoin and believe in its long term potential while ignoring the short term silliness in the market, dropping down 50% means we can buy twice the amount of bitcoin we could before with the same amount of money.

Imagine that with all the inflation and everything you can only invest $100 from your paycheck into bitcoin. If price remained above $60k you could only buy 0.0016BTC but at a 50% discount you can buy 0.0033BTC which is a fantastic deal.

That's why we need to analyze separately regarding investment, because this investment is an absolute decision that we make, but it must be based on a good analysis and consider some of the risks that will arise in the future, bitcoin can be purchased under any conditions in my opinion, because bitcoin can increase very quickly at any given time, bitcoin's volatility is very good for now, so don't worry about buying it

correction or not, people have the chance to make a decision whether to invest or not before we see the btc price going up again. as the probability of going to 50k is very high, it is high time to decide on whether to invest some of your extra funds to this market. don't wait too long, because the movement is quite fast. but of course, up to your capability here. don't listen to other's people opinions because it is your own instincts and financial capability that matters at the end of the day.

it remains on volatility, we'd see the price of Bitcoin at $47k but now, a correction been occurred and down to $45k upon checking recently (not an April fool I think). It is way not to see a stable price rise but hoping this 2nd quarter could be seeing such a consistent uptrend motion. I've been predicting Bitcoin to reach back $50k this 1st semester and I really see the positive look in the market.

Well, it seems that April is not good as corrections come but this can be a way to give to those who want to invest.

I don't know, bitcoin price is getting weaker, I think the most that the we can get in. this run is $48k. Because after we touch that, the price simply goes down a bit for now, at lower $47k.

So I guess the breakout could have been hit a wall now, maybe temporarily. But still good to at least see the price going above $45k and hopefully we can maintain it all along in April as usually April is not a good month for us.

if you know what strategy and risk you are entering then there is no problem losing 50% because in long run this is still profitable.

Like those who hold their Folio from 2017? when the price of Bitcoin climbed up almost 20k and then 2018 drops more than 50% but look how much increased after 4 years?

if you are for long term holding then you know what are you dealing here.

I agree, we have seen this last time around when the price failed to break 20k for many times in a row, went closer and went down and repeated that in cycles. However, it eventually cracked above that and reached 64k as we all know it. We could be in the same situation right now as well, we could be failing to go above 50k right now, fail to do that in repeat a few times, but then we could break above that and reach to a new all time high again.

I am not sure why people are s pessimistic about the price of bitcoin so early. We barely got from 42k to 47k levels, it is not a time to stop and we should be looking for a lot higher before we consider the next crash.

Market conditions are almost completely back on the green path, but we need to be careful with conditions like this, to make a purchase, I think at the time of correction it can also be done for bitcoin, because as we know, the recovery process for bitcoin will definitely happen, the difference is that for now we don't need to be worried anymore in making purchases, but actually purchases of bitcoin can be done anytime

I agree with you that Bitcoin is now in its current state and will cross $50k in the next few days.bI am very optimistic and hope this is what will happen. If you notice this too, you will understand that the price of all other coins is going up a lot. This means we hope to see a better breakout in a few days.

Not me, I didn't make a sell above $60,000. At that time, I was really convinced that the price of Bitcoin would finally hit $100,000. I really believed that a six-figure price would be happening in that year 2021. Of course we all know I was wrong but I didn't really regret having hodled my Bitcoin. Of course it would have been better had I sold near the ATH and bought back at $30,000 plus, but I don't really sell simply because an ATH is reached.

Don't worry about a drop in paper value. It will surely rise again. A new ATH is incoming.

Actually, everyone has their own methods and strategies to be able to make a profit when investing in Bitcoin. So if there is a trader who makes
a cut loss when the Bitcoin price drops, it's probably he doesn't want to experience a bigger loss, and maybe for the trader it can be easier to cover
the losses they experience. This means that doing a cut-loss can be a good strategy if they plan well too.

But because Bitcoin is a safe asset in my opinion. Where the price tends to continue to rise in the long term, so for investing in Bitcoin I prefer
a gradual buying and selling strategy. I think the most important thing when deciding to invest in Bitcoin we really have to be patient,
because making a profit from Bitcoin can not be instant. Therefore Bitcoin is very good as a long-term investment, meaning we don't need to rush
to sell our Bitcoins if the price drops. Although our asset estimates appear to be declining, but as long as we don't sell it we haven't suffered a loss.

Conclusion let's appreciate different strategies and methods with ours, because everyone is free to use the method he finds effective. I agree that
for now we need to monitor Bitcoin movements first, because Bitcoin movements are still difficult to predict. We don't know after rising above
the $45k price, the Bitcoin price will continue to rise to the $50k price, or even go back down again. We must always remain vigilant and be prepared
to take the decisions we think are good based on Bitcoin price movements.

One question to all.

Did anyone of you get out of your positions above 60,000? If not, you saw your portfolio drop 50% in value. Is allowing the portfolio to drop 50% in value a good overall strategy?

If we bought at the top we can also adopt that option if we really need to take position since its really a big stress for us not taking any action when there's dip came and doing cut loss is one of the best solution to save up our portfolio. It's up to you to decide on what percentage you can afford since if you are a risk taker then do it 100% but if not then what you suggest guys which is 50%.

We have different preferences about this so I guess we will have different opinion unto this.

Cost averaging is another method, and cutting your losses is also a good strategy.
If Bitcoin able to hit the price of $50k, that could be another bull run and if the price goes back to $45k again, it could be a correction which is another opportunity to buy again. There can be more scenario here, just keep watching so you can be ready for your next move.

Your solution is good but at least we have a perception in making choices, meaning we only buy 50% and the remaining 50% we will buy at the lowest price behind our main purchase. In this context we will not lose the percentage value in our portfolio because we enter gradually at different prices so it will be more appropriate for us to climb the ladder one by one.

Your approach is fundamentally oriented and if you get married to an idea and the idea does not work out for whatever reason, you will take a big loss.

Traders, computers and algorithms do not look at the fundamentals. They trade with the idea of limiting risk so they are never put in a positions where they have to make decisions based on money available.

If you buy at 42,000 and get out at 40,000, it suggests it is going to 35,000 (or lower). As such, you get out at 40,000 and rebuy at 35,000 and you have prevented the account from being down 5,000 extra dollars.

Doing this, allows you to be as aggressive (or more) at the lower levels. You don't have to worry about the fact the portfolio may be down an additional 10% in value.

With this type of mentality, if you buy at 42,000 and get out at 50,000 and it goes back to 42,000 again, you are now $6,000 richer and can buy even more.

"we really don't know if some news will come out in the next 3 months that will change the movement of the price.

It could be positive or negative, so it's better to still observe and be cautious of our trading strategy as the price won't go on parabolic rise. "

This statement can be said about everything in the market. It is NOT a reason to not trade.

One mistake everyone makes is to think that trading has to be about being "right or wrong". No one likes to be wrong and lose. It hits the ego we all have and it hits our pocketbook. What needs to be the main idea is not about being right or wrong but about making more money than you lose. Everyone is going to have a loser at one point or another. It is part of investing. What needs to be done is have a game plan where you determine an intelligent entry price, have a level predetermined where the product will become negative (even for a short term basis) and if that level gets broken you take the loss. By the same token, also have an upside objective that is realistic and likely to be reached and make the determination that what you are trying to make versus what you are risking is 4 times more (at least) to what you are risking...........all based on support and resistance levels that you know will be supported and sold at (like with Bitcoin at 42,000 and at 50,000.

Let me explain, enter Bitcoin near the 42,000 level and put a stop loss at 40,000 using the 50,000 level as the objective. In this way, you are looking to make 4 times more than what you are risking. If stopped out, take the loss and look for the next support level where you can buy it and do the same chart determination.

By doing this, you can be wrong as much as 80% of the time (unlikely) and still break even. Waiting for some kind of assurance that the trade is going to work, normally means you are getting in at a high price where the risk is much more than the profit potential and that is never a good trading strategy. You know the adage about "buying low and selling high"

Given that "anything can happen at any time" fundamentally, this strategy is what will increase your probabilities of "making more money than you lose". It is "exactly" what the traders do.

The rally is not over yet and will continue, and hopefully, what you wish for can happen before the end of this month. Now is the time for a correction that could hold the price up to and back to the $48k level. If today or tomorrow, the price can go back up and even touch $48k again, there is a possibility that next month, the price can get another rally. Yes, this is fun because we can see the highest price again this year, and hopefully, next month and beyond, the price can return to the last ATH.

Bitcoin movements are confusing because the news we read varies so that it has an impact on bitcoin market movements. the market is currently in a holding phase at between $42k to $47k and will be in the spotlight for the next move, will bitcoin fall again or bounce sharply. many investors are worried about a market like this.

Breakouts have been happening in the past few hours and days. There is almost a hundred percent guaranteed possibility that the price will be reaching $50,000 in the coming days, perhaps even before March comes to a close. The price has corrected a bit after reaching $48,000 but there is no reason to believe that the rally is over. It seems the correction has now reached the bottom and the bounce is already starting to happen. This resumption might be the rally that will finally break $50,000. This is exciting!

Yeah and that is the problem, we really don't know if some news will come out in the next 3 months that will change the movement of the price.

It could be positive or negative, so it's better to still observe and be cautious of our trading strategy as the price won't go on parabolic rise. It could be a long and hard grind for us and we could be hitting $60k in the next 1-3 months so we will see.

Here is the 1-year weekly closing chart (Sunday's at 12:00 pm). Intraweek moves above or below those levels are meaningless to this chart. This chart shows the area (between the resistance and support lines) where Bitcoin is likely to trade for the next 1-3 months............unless new news comes out.

http://theoasisclub.net/Bitcoin1year.jpg

If that's what going to happen but it seems that traders won't risk to hodl and wait till Bitcoin touch the $50k. The market is in bear but we might seem to feel it this way since the market looks like bullish with a slight of pump but that's just it. And I agree that we just need a little longer days of price staying at $45k then we might expect a break through $50k or even more. But for now, it might look temporary to me since the hype of conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems a bit odd.

As many people predicted Bitcoin is finally starting to recover, and now it only takes another 31% increase to get back into the ATH price.
This means that the price of Bitcoin is getting closer to returning to the ATH price, almost all investors welcome this. But as you said, we still
have to be vigilant, knowing there is still the possibility of the Bitcoin price going down again. Because no one can guarantee the bearish trend is
over, indeed a wise move if we have bought Bitcoin since the price of Bitcoin fell below the price of $ 40k. Then now with Bitcoin rising to
the price of $47k decided to sell some of the Bitcoins we have, to be able to make a profit. So if the price of Bitcoin goes back down we can buy
Bitcoin again, but if it turns out that Bitcoin continues to rise and even reaches the price of $50k at least we are still holding some of our Bitcoin.
But there are people who decide not to take profit now it's not a problem, because after all Bitcoin will always be profitable for long-term investments.

The question is,is it really the reason on why bitcoin did make out some significant move or increase into its price? Considering on the rise percentage then it isnt really something that big to consider but at least we are

seeing some good recovery and trying to reach out that 50k but with this kind of gradual increase then it wont be taking too long on seeing those numbers but of course it would be still need to push up even more further.

Im not really that making myself on expecting too much because this could always be a bumpy ride where assurances would not fit out on that behavior.

At this point we can expect a pullback but the distance it travels first before slowing is why I avoid being negative preemptivily.   Here is the longer term chart as I see it and it did add up to bullish outlook a fair while back because of how we handled the lows:


We've just passed about 38% of the recovery from that ATH sell off and 50k if we got there would be about 50% fittingly, also 50k also fits well into prior lows and high prices for weekly bars over the last year.    I put most significance behind the 200 day or yearly average and what direction that has but also 50k could be a good fit that means we level off there.   At some point immediate gains reduce and profits will be taken hence a pullback but its best not to guess weakness too much before it appears, overall the situation is strong.

People speculation is positive so I guess we could really hit that mark as there are so many good news happening on bitcoin as well many people are eyeing to get some to hold for future since bearish days is I think over after some crisis happen in the world. I think the news about Russia using bitcoin for their daily transaction is one of contributing factor on why we see this rise and people find it positive as this is discuss over the mainstream.

Exactly, the bitcoin breakout will last long to enable traders to make enough profit from their long term investment. This is the opportunity many traders has being waiting to see to believe that we are finally out from bear market. The price of BTC will stay above $50 before it will finally move to $100 before the end of this year 2022. According to researchers the price will not dump through out this month to allow long term traders to benefit from their trading.

Many are now talking about the 50k resistance, which bitcoin should break soon, but it may not happen at the first try or it may not happen at all. Today bitcoin hit 48k and almost immediately rolled back to 47k. So now we have a resistance around 48k, which we need to pass before we can talk about 50k. But I also think April should be bullish.

We can all expect bigger bulls in the longer term, but we can't guarantee that the downtrend has passed by now. The increase over the last 2 weeks guarantees nothing because FUD is always on the market, so it will only be enjoyed if you don't want to buy. While I might consider selling it for a profit after buying it when it went down a while ago.

Right now the bitcoin price is $47K, it's pretty close to $50K and there may be hope that it will break through in a few days.

Without a doubt it seems that bitcoin is presenting some positive signals and that we could see a price above 50k during the next days and weeks, however it is debatable if we have the strength to remain above that level for a long time as there are still several factors that could be affecting its short term performance, but even then this is a good sign as I think we are going to see some kind of positive movement before this year ends, which will keep alive the possibility of bitcoin being in a supercycle.

If those were just little amounts, they might not feel the profit because the more amount they've accumulated in bitcoin, the better returns that they shall get.
But still, profit is profit and they only have to wait until when they're ready to take profits as that's what they need to have when the price seems to be perfect already in selling.

Next resistance level is indeed 50,000$, but it's hard to say if the bulls' time has finally arrived again. We've already seen bitcoin reaching close to the mark, and the closer it reaches, the harder it is to break the resistance.

As I see the charts, on the last hour there is a strong decline in btc price, responsible for $500 decreasement already. By tomorrow, let's see where this tendency is going to take bitcoin.

I still think it's too early to draw that conclusion, the price just reached $47000 and it can stay between $44000 to $47000 for a long time, I've seen it many times, that's why I don't think it would be wise to buy at that level and say it's safe


like I said, I wouldn't be so sure about buying at this level.

Profitability would really depend on how you do trade and making out decisions which its a must thing for a trader for him to sustain this unpredictable market.We've been staying in 40k price level for a while now and the
price we do have currently is trying out to climb which is a good indication that we might able to break 50k soon and starts up to recover and might able to break out its previous ATH.
For now to those people who had accumulate in 40k+ or lower then they had made out some profits as of this moment but for long term holders then this isnt an issue most of the time.

I agree at both statements. But there are also more successful holders and they're consistently doing that. In the end, whichever strategy you're doing great and better, stick to it.
Change your plans if they're no longer working on you and you just have to be adaptable with any market situation because it's still you that will decide whether there's a breakout or none or we enter bears or bulls, you'll still be the one suffering or winning your trades and investments.

A good trader is actually a rare thing as I understand it.  Most people in the market lose 50% of their trades but the important part is they have the discipline, training and experience to know when to quit so their average loss is less then the average gain they see and that constant positive difference adds up to alot as you said its alot compounded every day; not that a trader profits every day I dont recognize that can always be the case.
   You should also represent that active trading is an 8 hours job at least, not to mention all the background work outside of live trading hours also.   Work equals more money then passive investment gains, so it should.  Last thing is the most natural trader I know personally, as in not a company is somebody who wakes every day at 5am to study trends overnight and then proceeds similarly never relenting for the rest of the day.  I lack the mental fortitude to honestly say I could do that learn and practice regularly for years.

The price may suddenly goes up or down, that is how volatility works. So i don't believe that this downtrend will be over even if bitcoin price reaches its $50k level. Of course, it opens a great opportunity that bitcoin might be heading its way to bull season, but it does not guarantee that it won't fall again. But i'm glad that the current value is now starting to be impressive and it could go even higher if there are positive events in the market that will happen soon.

I think that is because the beginning of April is also the start of the second quarter. Usually the more that we are close to the third and fourth quarter, the more the increase we are going to feel. If I am not mistaken there was a bull at November but the bear takes place in the beginning of December and lasted march, that's only 4 months or 120 days not 150 days but it was still a long wait. Many of us almost gave up during that time.

I think it's now time for us to experience the opposite thing. A long lasting bull would be enough to make us all happy. By the time btc cross over 45k, I think we can still consider that as a breakout but pretty sure it won't go down anymore.

Exactly, the history will always repeat and now Bitcoin looks to break every resistance and on a good position right now at the price of $48k. We will not drop that much again, the trend will continue and we should watch the market because for sure altcoins will follow the trend. Bitcoin is vert bullish right now, hope that taking profit should not happen yet so the price can go further.

Being a trader and being an investor are 2 completely different things. Both can be successful but a trader (if he is good) can actually do better.

There is an example that I use all the time that shows this to be true. In 2014, there was a stock that had bullish fundamentals. It was trading at 21.50 when I first discovered it and I bought it at that price. The stock moved up as high as $41 but onne year later on the same date, the stock closed at 28.50, meaning that an investor would have made about a 30% profit for the year (not bad at all). I am not an investor but a trader and as such, I traded that stock 18 times that year. I shorted the stock 11 times and bought the stock 7 times and I had 11 profitable trades and 7 losing trades. After commissions and losses were subtracted, my profit was $35 per share (versus $7 per share of the investor). I made 5 times more money trading than the investor holding.

Probably the most famous and "true" story is of a guy I met in 1984 that had purchased a seat on the Chicago Board of Trade in the Bond market. In other words, he was trading on the floor and there trading every day (as many as 50 times a day - in an out). He started with $25,000 dollars and in 2 years he had made $200 "million" dollars.

A good "trader" can make a lot more money than a buy and hold investor.

I've seen this happen many times where we reach a breakout, but the community is in such disbelief that they actually sell into this breakout, ignoring the fact that it's in fact a reversal, the beginning of a new trend. They keep selling, price keeps crawling up and after a while they all realize it's indeed a bull run, at which point they all start buying again with the fiat money they have lying around on their accounts from selling early and this is the point where we start going up like crazy.
The moment when the smart money is in and the street that was selling all throughout the correction and into the early reversal switches stance and injects additional fiat into the market when there's already a shortage of supply.

I'm waiting for a supply squeeze of the decade and believe me, if we go to 60k it's going to come, because last time we were between 60 and 70 there was much more coins on the market for people to buy. Now it's going to be less, but with similar or even bigger demand.

The month of April is always been bullish according to past years. Also, we have seen a long-lasting bearish market for more than 150 days so a relief bounce was inevitable. But to be a confirmed breakout BTC needs to stay above 45k for some time. This is one of the psychological zones that many traders are waiting for to be broken so that the market turns bullish.

For many, many years I have this conversation/debate about charts vs fundamentals but since I have not had that conversation here, let me give you the salient points.

Charts do not analyze or predict anything. What charts do is show what the "people-in-the-know-with-the-big-money" are doing. These are the people that know more than you or I know and their buying (or selling) is showing what they think and more importantly "where they are putting their money and at what price"

Fundamentals are always the basis for everything but fundamentals are only "in play" a few times a year. Computers, algorithms, traders and even investors are checking the charts as to where the big buying and selling is found and they are buying and selling "daily" and that is what makes Bitcoin go from support to resistance and back.

By reading the charts, I can see what those people in the know are doing and given they know more than I do about the fundamentals, I would rather "follow the knowledgeable money" than try to evaluate the fundamentals myself.

In that respect, charts are very dependable given that Computers, algorithm, and chart traders are all going to be buying at X point and selling at Y point, unless fundamentals change (perhaps a few times a year). No one person can move any market but when you have a big money group "all" buying and selling at certain levels, the chances of success are much higher. In simple words, by reading the charts, I know where these big traders will be buying and will be selling "automatically.

Reading charts is not easy but when you have done it for 47 years and have seen hundreds of thousands of charts, you would be amazed at how things get cleared up substantially, and the important thing is that the product does not matter (it could be stocks, indexes, commodities or crypto). Human nature is the same everywhere.

Finally, bitcoin is back at $47k today, and this is a great moment as many of us are already buying bitcoins at low prices. Many of them sold bitcoins at a price now and made a profit. But I think some are still holding their bitcoins because their target has not been achieved.

Those who haven't bought bitcoins at the last low price can buy them now or wait until the price corrects. But don't be sad if the price can't get back below $45k because it probably won't get back there. But if the price is back there again, it's a good time for them to buy it.

LOL. I expect those prices, what happens is that I do not expect $1M in 6 months, but we will gradually reach those prices, I am sure of it, and it is not a matter of greed or fear. It is a matter of fundamental analysis. Today there is nothing better than Bitcoin to store and transfer wealth, especially in large quantities. And bitcoin is even more useful in the environment we find ourselves in, with rising inflation, tax hikes and governments with a tax collection drive that borders on confiscatory.

Regarding the OP, I hope to see more of his predictions around here to see if he gets it right more times, showing that it is true that he is a good chartist.

What a coincidence. If you can observe too, the monthly candle close is fast approaching too. I am thinking if this is a bull trap or a breakout indeed, but I am more confident with the latter.
The month of April is a very good month for the bulls for sure especially if we will breakout the $50,000 this month.

A 50K BTC price at the beginning of April would be great.During the entire winter season,I've had a positive feeling about the Bitcoin price in the upcoming spring and my gut feeling might be right.Of course,a Bitcoin price level of 45-50K USD might be temporary and the price might drop back to 40K,if major FUD news appear out of nowhere(probably USA or Russia).
I'm not one of bullish maximalists,who are expecting 100K,250K or a million dollar Bitcoin price.We should be happy with a 50K price.Greed is always a bad advisor,just like fear.
 

Yeah, fiesta should be around $60k'ish before we can all celebrate again and get out our Margaritas and have some fun.

So it's a long way to go before we can see that price again, so the best thing to do is a wait and see attitude again. Who knows, maybe after a break out run of $50k the market suddenly goes bearish as speculators are selling again because they know that the price will have a hard time going up and thinks that we are still in the bears territory despite this initial break out run this year.

The fear and greed index is accurately showing that people are leaning towards greed again.
So I'd expect more such "deep analysis" come out as long as the price looks good.
But we're in speculation area. Don't be too harsh, I've seen worse and I guess that you too.


All in all, shouldn't the fiesta start much closer to the last ATH? I fear we're rushing it a little and we'll get out Margaritas before we have the real party...

Weekly bars matter most and we've had one single weekly bar above the 50 day average and we are running right into the 200 day and the 50 week.   There is no absolute certainties but these two measures show why it will take more then a week above a positive momentum indicator to be sure BTC is now bullish.
   The most likely outcome as always is there exists a mix of buyers and sellers and we have to develop for a longer period to gain enough energy to break upwards especially.   For large movements upwards we are basically talking about an imbalance for whatever reason why buyers outweigh any doubts, any forced sales and retraction in leveraged money.   Normally traders must sell, they borrow the money and the trade must be closed so a constant cycle is normal and we first likely to see this occur.   We'll retract and I hope rise back higher.

If there is one sure thing is that FUD won't stop anytime soon, especially "organized FUD" because too many times I've seen a lot of bad news against bitcoin coming out all together, sometimes even using old news mixed with new ones just to create more confusion and fear. Honestly, I don't even care anymore, but for the new ones, well, it's not easy dealing with that.

about the break out, hopefully it's not false and can penetrate the ath you mentioned, the technical side of the analyst makes a lot of perceptions and assumptions that make these faults produce several methods. I'm sure it will be exciting in q2 (april) the green trend will sparkle.
if friends are discussing halving as for post, power and quality that will be repaired by the network, I agree and support it. I am not the only bitcoin keeper, I believe in the future and all developments in cruptocurency I have witnessed, I read there are more from 40 million confirmed bitcoin addresses and potentially more

The downtrend has been over for a long time but the things that aren't not over yet are:
1. The FUD that is still going on although at a decreased size about all the "bans", "energy consumption", "PoW bad", "flippening",... fooling the brainwashed people into staying away or selling their valuable bitcoins.
2. The uncertainty is still in the market among the participants who are still wishing for a lower price so that they can make a bigger profit while being uncertain about the rise that is obviously happening.
3. The shorts and the fact that those who are going against the market trend haven't yet reached their loss threshold despite huge losses they've sustained.

I think there is a good chance that we see a big green bar very soon as the FOMO buying begins.

Yes, bitcoin made a breakout today and if it proves to be true, it could mean a new up cycle has begun. What I like the most is that it is a good new green week and a new monthly candle should appear very soon. Many people, including me, thought that April would be good for cryptocurrencies. I hope that is true.

Just because we have a break out means that the down trend is over. It is too early, and you have to look long term though. We are still in March and many things can happen.

If you are not aware of, Terra project have plans of buying bitcoin, billions of it.


https://bitcoinist.com/terra-luna-will-buy-10-billion-worth-of-bitcoin-heres-why/

So in the next 2 months there will be pumping bitcoin market, it's just the question what the negative effect on the market after they are done.

While we all expect the price to suddenly jump to $50K right now, it could possibly be going down for a day or two and then back to run upwards again just liquidating those in the futures. Remember that the market is unpredictable all the time so when the market is very obvious, it really is not normal. Anyone is waiting for a flash crash?

Ofcourse I could be wrong because I have already bought some at $42K. I wanted it to go straight up while the governments are making some fuzz in regulating it.

When people are already making conclusions such this, I couldn't help but to be a lot more skeptical. 2 weeks of uptrend doesn't guarantee literally anything.

I'm not 100% sure that the downtrend is over, no one can be sure about that, but what is impressive is that bitcoin is above $45k in this current climate. People complain about the price, they except $100k asap, blah blah blah, for me seeing bitcoin at this value despite the inflation and a war it's just crazy. Crazy good of course.

making charts for X years does not make you a bitcoin expert on price.
especially if you think that the only variable in trends is the social drama speculation.
"fundamental news" does not make social drama any more important by putting the word fundamental next to news

social drama is only temporary. and not a good measure of bitcoin value or state of direction which the price might go mid/long term

social drama sometimes impacts the price but only lasts a few hours/days.
but also speculators might see negative news, predict a dip, and thus themselves go on a selling spree to extend the dip, or even buy up coin to reduce the dip, thus you cant always count on how much negative drama will affect the price, if at all, in some cases negative social drama actually raises the price

so try to also find in the most important variables.. some ACTUAL fundamentals
EG the mining cost.

each region of the planet has different mining costs.
you can easily calculate and plot the prices and look at the support and resistance zones.

for instance american mining is more expensive than the asian/slavic regions. and so depending on the price, people in america switch from mining to buying, or buying to mining.
thus creates one of the support/resistance zones

you can also work out the very most expensive mining. the point where no one wants to buy coin any more because even the most smallest hobby miner in the most expensive mining area can mine for profit. thus finding the point of ultimate resistance (EG last years $70k)

you can also work out the very cheapest mining. the point where no one wants to sell coin any more because even the cheapest industrial miners in the cheapest mining area cant mine for less. thus finding the point of ultimate support (EG last years $20k+(~$35k in Q4))  (this summer it will be back down to $27k at current hashrate)

you can also look at the UXTO 'realisation value' and see how much coin last moved at which prices to roughly determine how much people value the coin they hold.
EG if X% last moved above current prices. then those people are strong holders.
EG if X% last moved many years ago. then those people are strong holders/lost coin.
vs
the amount of coin in the last 1-3 years last moved below current price


..
in short having a price chart with just the social drama 'fundamental news' is not a good charting model

Well, let me say that I have been a chartist for 47 years and I was trained by the best (Merrill Lynch and Pru-Bache) and for the past 14 years I have had my own service with subscribers and my chart readings have been proven over and over again to be quite good.

The charts say that this move up does end the recent downtrend. This does not mean that an uptrend is beginning (it could be a sideways trend) but new and negative fundamental news is needed to restart the downtrend. Until that happens (and I don't see anything on the horizon that could be a catalyst for that........in fact, the contrary), the charts say that for now Bitcoin will go sideways or higher.

On a daily closing basis, support will now be found at the 42000 level.

There could either be a breakout or a retest but if a breakout then an advantage but else a retest then it will fall a bit lower. But i think there is a higher chance of having a new high of $50k level within the week following the long dip so far. But there is no clear indication showing the down trend is over

Bitcoin is in the process of generating a breakout today (Sunday). A close today above 44569 will be the highest close in over 2 months and will break a triple top that has been built during this time in that area. Bitcoin is presently trading at 46667 at 7:00pm Sunday. The next resistance area is at the 50,000 level. Nonetheless, this breakout is a signal that the downtrend is over, meaning that now the bulls can buy with more confidence.