Do you know when this curve was created? Seems a little to accurate. In the article it says it was created in Dec 2019, so did it predict Dec 2019 or did they draw the curve from that day? One reason I am asking is because it might be a repainting indicator. Many of these indicators in hindsight seem to work great however when you use them in real-time they produce alot of false positives.
Good question, while it's done a good job picking out the bottoms in 2019, I have to agree with the following:
That's the nature of all trend lines or curves. It's regression analysis, a form of curve fitting. Over time, lines of best fit will always become increasingly inaccurate. As new data comes in, we find more "accurate" ones which themselves will fail over time.
A friend of mine used to say "trend lines were meant to be broken." And he's right. Once I start seeing 4, 5, 6 touches on a trend line, I start expecting it to fail. It's not some fundamentally huge deal when it happens either. It's just mean regression.
I can see that argument for sure, especially when it has ground along the bottom of this curve numerous times, while the top of this curve has only 3 touch-points. Therefore, as support has been tested a lot more than the resistance of this channel, it is more likely to break than the resistance level.
That said, we are starting to see a bounce from the same lower band as we have done throughout Bitcoin's history. If we find support from this curve as has happened previously, it would be a good indicator of another swing low. The relevance of this curve is being tested at the moment, that's for sure.
