Topic: Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 by 2023 as the Fed normalizes interest rate policy (Read 746 times)

I definitely think there is a lot of hidden or as yet unconsidered risks for big, big stablecoins to get kicked in the teeth, especially with the dollar gunning already for ATHs vs big currencies: euro, pound, even in Southeast Asia.

Now the last time I saw dollar this strong was in my teens, when I first got online and started earning money. Just a year or two after that, we hit the biggest financial crisis I'd ever seen. Things were really, really bad. People couldn't buy anything in terms of investment and everyone went to buy USD.

I see some sense in saying the same here for retail. People will be lining up to buy those bonds, those who can, or on behalf of. And they'll stop putting money into crypto, gold, etc.

The good news? We went through a huge period of growth on the back of that crisis, gold and stockmarkets went on an unrelenting rally lasting more or less till now. Only, it did take about 7 years after the crisis.

I'm prepared to wait that long for BTC!

Well if we can see at the latest CPI report, the crypto market reacted negatively, as the anticipated fed rate hike numbers is higher that what they are predicted.

But in any case, there are still crypto investors who think that this is bullish in the long run. This is just like what the price hits lows of $3k during the covid-19 announcement. So now we have the inflation monthly report being the most anticipated news coming from the Feds. Not only for crypto but for Nasdaq as well as we have some correlations on it. So if by 2023, the price plunges to $10k, imagine what will it be for the blue chip stocks and other assets. We might be in another year wherein everyone is suffering, prices of basic commodities going up. But we should remain steady in this crypto market, as we are anticipating another bull run in 2024-2025.

Thats the thing about crypto, we do not know whats going to happen. We can make some estimations and hope that it goes on the way we speculate but that doesn't change the fact that we could be very well wrong too. If we are wrong then we are going to lose money, if we are right then we are going to profit. Instead of risking it on the short term like this, I tend to buy more bitcoin because even if 2023 isn't an awesome year (which I believe it will be) it could still very well be awesome in 2024 as well. It does depend on the world markets a bit, but it depends on bitcoin itself a lot as well.

It is difficult to predict accurately that the price of bitcoin will drop to $10k in 2023 as the Fed wants to normalize interest rates. Although everything is still possible in the crypto world. It's better now to use the opportunity to collect more bitcoins when the price drops and sell when the price is high without having to bother thinking about future predictions that will not necessarily happen as predicted by some experts.

But US savings bonds specifically the I bond are paying 9.62%

every us citizen is allowed to buy $10,000 a year.

330 million x 10,000 is 3.3 trillion a year could be purchased.

This is a tremendous attack against all USD  pegged stable coins.

No stable coin is pegged better than the US I bond is pegged.

As for liquidity just buy 10 x 1000 bonds every year the rate are stupid high.

9.62% = stupid high. all usa citizens can buy it.

new rate will be oct 1 and since inflation just came at 8.3 or so the next set of I bonds will be at least 8.4%

Let us look at the calendar. April 1 2022 I bonds popped in at 9.62%

May 9 2022 Terra Luna crashes.

New rate for I bonds is Oct 1 2022. at least 8.3%

what is up next to crash?

BTC?
ETH?
USDT?
USDC?


the unrelenting pressure of 8 and 9 % perfectly pegged I bond will hurt all of crypto bigly.


remember 3.3 trillion a year could go into I Bonds last I looked all of crypto coins grand total is not even 1.5 trillion.


I see this inflation as a way to attack crypto in general.

The only coins that should do well are.

BTC  why pow
LTC   why pow
Doge why pow

there are about 5 or 6 pow coins other than above .

All stable coins are full and complete moron move for usa investors due to the I-bond numbers.

So it looks to me that the USA will crack the whip over all stable coins for at least 12 months from oct 1.

why is that? well I bonds come out at least 8.4 % you buy first month 5x 1000 = 5000
and you buy March 31 5 x 1000  you have  5 of 10 bonds getting that high rate for at least until sept  30.

as the ones you got on March 31 will pay at least 8.4 % for six months

the ones you got on Oct 1 will pay at least 8.4% till April 1 you can cash or hold if rate drops.  but remember you got the other 5 they give 8.4% for six months.

The 8.4% is a guess but it could be over 9 again.

these are going to kill crypto.

and don't think hustler hand sake deals are being made all over since every usa citizen can get them.

op I agree with you.  whether we go to 7k or 8 k or 11k for 12k down is were we are going.


all due to stable coins getting crushed from April 1 2022 to at least Oct 1 2023.

those numbers are allready set for USA I bonds   so 3.3 trill + 3.3 trillion = 6.6 trillion of bonds could be sold .

from April 1 2022 to march 31 2023 and the effects can last 6 months after it.

ugg.

but my silver lining is I have I bonds as does my wife.

We are not time travelers who can know what will happen in the future, so don't be too afraid of the prediction that Bitcoin will fall to the price of $10k.
Because not necessarily in 2023 the price of Bitcoin will drop to the price of $ 10k, what if the opposite happens in 2023 the Bitcoin price can recover
and return to the ATH price. Sometimes thinking about negativity only prevents us from going any further, therefore it is very important not to trust
the opinions of others who are not necessarily accurate. We have to trust the results of our own research and analysis.

But let's assume it's true that Bitcoin has dropped to a price of $10k, that doesn't mean we should panic. Because we've had bad things before in 2008,
so if something bad happens in 2023 we should already know what to do. In the end, people who believe in the future of Bitcoin, will look positively if
the Bitcoin price falls, making it a great time to buy Bitcoin whenever the price drops. If we are not sure about the future of Bitcoin, then as you said
we will be weak hands that will never make big profits from Bitcoin. Because to be able to generate large profits from Bitcoin we must be patient
holding Bitcoin in the long term.

Stated central bank rates are substantially different to effective rates including the rate of inflation.     If inflation is 10% and interest rates are 5% you cannot say the FED is operating strict currency control in effect, we are still seeing a large amount of excess currency forcing up prices.   In a system with fractional reserves the line between policy and market effect is not directly connected or exactly under their control, it takes a while for policy to propagate.

I believe there is no need to worry about what the article stated.  It is pure speculation because it is a year ahead of us, besides it only tackles news that will downgrade the price of Bitcoin.  What about the projects and companies that will adopt Bitcoin?  The country that will follow El Salvador's examples?  There are lots of things that may happen in a span of 1 year, that may either help the plunge of Bitcoin price or counteract the negative effect of the stated reason written in the article stated by OP.

Bitcoin @ $10k is indeed possible but it is equally possible that Bitcoin may reach $100k by the end of 2023 since this value is both under the radar of speculation.

Well, no one can really tell what will be the future price of bitcoin. If it drops to $10k in the future, then maybe we can’t do nothing about it. But isn’t it’s another good opportunity to buy and hold? Strong hands will always see and realize this, while weak hands tend to be more panic and develop fears. The reason why weak hands never end up long term winners.

I don't think so but a lot of us only buy btc because they treat it as an asset to make money but the real use case for btc is when you use it as a currency for purchasing or for sending money anywhere in the world.

These type of people will buy btc whatever its value because they will use it immediately but for those who are investors and traders, they will wait first when btc dips because it's more wiser to buy this way. When btc drops down to 10k then it's surely a big attraction for them however many people are expecting the price will get better soon but I agree with that because the bear run is getting longer and the end for this must be close already.

I think this is not only a possibility, but a likelihood.  I'd love to say that the recent drop to $18K was the low for the cycle, but the volume just doesn't support that.  I want to see a massive volume spike as we touch lows in order to confirm it.  We didn't see that.  If you're trying to time the market, it might be best to wait a while longer.  If you're dollar cost averaging in with regular buys, now is definitely the time to be stacking through the consolidation phase.

The fed decisions can only have an effect within the United States, and Bitcoin is a global alternative currency and in as much as the United States, is among the top countries in Bitcoin adoption the fed decision may not be able to force the price of Bitcoin down to $10,000 as you postulated. I feel that Bitcoin have gone beyond the price of 10k and we may not see such price again in history even though it i possible for Bitcoin to drop below that price but the chances of that happening is slim and Bitcoin have many benchmarks to resist 10k price shortly with or without fed decisions.

Usage is what makes people buy sell & hold BTC ultimately, 10k only has attraction when people are confident of a gain.   Ironically the less BTC costs the greater the losses in peoples speculative interest in a mainstream consideration anyhow, it is ironic but a repeated dynamic.


FED policy is always going to lag inflation, its even stated as their main intent.   They want 2% but in the end I think single digits is a barn door target where they end up landing, the tools they keep referring to are quite blunt.    A very large fear for them is deflation, this is where bills cannot be paid vs inflation losses are less apparent and far less politically damaging.   Normalizes, if normal is constant currency decay then sure thats the norm.

Yes, but isn't it true as well that despite that fact that there is the possibility that it can go as low as $10k, people will find that price very attractive to buy and maybe fill their wallets again with cheap bitcoin?

And if that is the circumstances that we will see the price recovering very fast as well. Just like when it goes down to $3k during the height of the pandemic scare. We will always going to bounce back, if there is something that we have learn from a massive downward spiral of prices in the past.

While I do not think that we have to worry too much about the price of bitcoin going that low we cannot really discard the possibility of this happening if some sort of massive panic were to happen once again, so like always we need to be ready for whatever the market throw at us because the moment we think that something is impossible to happen then that is the moment in which we will fail to prepare for those circumstances and if they happen we will not know what to do just when we need it the most.

FED can do whatever they want, the fact that the price dropped last time they increased the rate was a factor by how people didn't know where to put their money during inflation and their money lost value. This time around it would be high again, but people will start to realize inflation is higher than the rate so they need to reinvest that money again to some place, won't be easy and won't be quick but it will not hurt it as much as people think.

10K is long gone, and it will not come back even if you want it to, I would love to have bitcoin at those prices because it means I would be able to buy even more but I know that it won't happen and that upsets me a bit but I am hopeful about the future at least.

Not really. First of all if they continue cutting rates and crash the US stock market they will destroy the country and go into recession. They can't do that and they know it. They want to scare people from investing and make them move into saving fiat money by increasing the price of the USD, but they know it well that if they overcorrect they'll put the economy in a downward spiral.

I also think that there's only a certain number of US companies in Bitcoin that can go bankrupt from this. Bitcoin is not only based on leveraged companies and not only on US companies. Whoever was at risk mostly sold by now.

People are looking for a point, or a price they are trying to predict. The next 12 months will be turbulent, we can only guess what will happen. No one can see the future and something could happen that we do not expect. The hard financial situation go until the end of 2023, rather longer. People's acceptance of bitcoin has to go up, if it doesn't you can see it in the price of bitcoin. I see it simple.

Nothings changed in terms of knowledge. Back ten years ago we had more technical users because Bitcoin wasn't as well known, and wasn't as easy as it's today to access. The more accessible Bitcoin becomes the more newer non technical users join the fun. However, that isn't a bad thing. We want to make Bitcoin as simple as possible that mass adoption would be possible if we could ever get the masses to join. We don't want a complex currency which can only be used by those with technical knowledge.

Although, you'll find even veteran users with a ton of knowledge fall for speculation, that's just human nature. We're literally pattern recognising machines, and even when there isn't really a pattern we establish one. So, of course we'll speculate, and compare to the past. That's just human nature, and that ain't going to change.

It would be a fair price though but that seems too deep IMO but who knows? Last time BTC 's lowest was in $3000 so I think it's a fair price to accumulate more hence we won't be worrying that the price may be too much to buy but how true it could happen next year?

And $17k is still a fair price though we still have a lot of time to wait and see whether the price would plummet to $10k or just stay on the $17k or maybe $20k?

Based on the current state of Bitcoin, we can say that Bitcoin can go further down in 2023.Many thought Bitcoin would never go below $20,000. But by removing all human thought and analysis, Bitcoin only came in at $17,000.$10k isn't too far off from what it's currently priced at. But let's see what happens.This price may not be of this season and Bitcoin market may go higher from here.But none of you lose patience one day at least Bitcoin will break its highest price record and set a new record.

$10k is not something that we should be worried of because eventually, bitcoin price will always have chances to drop that low, it may not be happening today but it would still be possible in the next bear season. The best thing to do is just be ready on it and prepare our funds so we can always maximize investing in bitcoin at its cheapest price possible.

Most of us are not seeing it that bitcoin will drop its price further like $10k, but knowing bitcoin, everything happens quickly that it will always surprised us all the time. Though some people fear on it particularly for those newbies investors who have bought bitcoin at a higher price, but isn’t it more favorable on our part if bitcoin and drops too low and give us biggest opportunity to buy again and hold. Not everyone favors on that but I think seeing bitcoin drops to $10k is very much possible.

i have took some time to look into possible reasons some feel that $10k is even an option/possibility as its a number below my opinion of a store of value level of $15k based on efficient recent gen asics.

and it turns out that some believe that the bitcoin network is mining not on efficient asics but on old outdated asics where the hardware has now got its ROI and so its just pure electric costs being considered as the only mining costs(a bit narrow minded but lets go with it)..

the S9(2017 gen) even at just electric only, is not cheaper than store of value even at low electric cost($20k/btc at 4cent electric)
the s17 however(2019 gen) would have reached its hardware ROI this year(just). and would have a lower than $15k(SoV) cost IF you only consider electric
($9k/btc at 4cent electric)

however most mining farms plan well ahead to stay ahead. having bought the latest gen(planning ahead) which are for 25% more electric 200% more hashpower. thus efficient to bring in more coin per day(the purpose of mining obviously*)
they would sell the s17 hardware to altcoiners. to then offset some initial electric bill costs of the next quarter of running the new asics(cashflow upfront to not need to sell coin to create cashflow)

which is a business model they have followed for years to stay efficient and ahead of the mining competition.

they are not mining to instantly sell coin to pay electric. they mine to accumulate coin. so the decisions are about hashing speed efficiency per physical unit space** of a warehouse to get as much coin as they can per day

(lets use 5asics instead of 5000 asics for math ease)
EG imagine you pay a quarterly electric bill allowing for ~13kw

instead of say 5 s17 asics at 5x55thash(275thash) using 5x 2.5kw(12.5kw)
they can replace that with s19 3x110thash(330thash) using 3x3.25(9.75kw)
saving space and electric (be in credit next quarter thus pay less)
and sell the old asics to have cashflow thus not touch any btc. whilst also increasing their efficiency aka more hash=more coin reward share

the other aspect is they wont want to rush to soon to just have 4xs19(13kw) as that is too much hashpower too fast too soon, which ends up with too fast block solving which causes difficulty to jump too fast thus shooting self in the foot.

so instead they have room** and spare electric capacity to grow in future months further by another 33%(or use as credit of next bill) with ease,

and..when they think its the right time to put the 4th asic on the shelf and turn it on. where it wont raise difficulty to much, they have the room, capacity and ability
..
*my own math of the $15k SoV already accounted for the transitions of each gen asic and the timing of where i see when the transitions occur to have the next gen asics take over as the dominant majority miners running(follow the difficulty changes~next gen delivery release dates) to then calculate the mining costs based on the this.


that said.
there are hobby miners that just run their asics to the death after hardware ROI. but those hobby miners after hardware ROI are not part of the asic farms of the most efficient hashpower bottomline electric cost SoV competition
they are the residential miners with higher electric/limited electric which are above the lowest costs

**asic farms look at hashrate per rackspace as a efficiency measure

You are right this set of influencers have deceived many people into believing such crab in the past, I still remember in the last few years back! say a year or two ago bitcoin holder Were less knowledgeable and are always on the lookout for news about Bitcoin market speculations from social media and they easily get misled by those they belief to have knowledge or influence on Bitcoin price/market. until they discovered that those speculators have always been wrong and their are only out to mislead gullible Bitcoin investors into panic action. But gone are those days were bitcoin holders lack basic knowledge on how Bitcoin work and how unpredictable the price of Bitcoin is, but now people are becoming more informed about Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency space so now they can make better decisions instead relying on random statement from a social media influencer.

Besides that, there will be a lot of people who are desperate to see the price of bitcoin reach $10k, and they will quickly sell their bitcoins when the price starts to drop to a low price. This is common, especially when the price is not strong enough to break higher and continues to decline sharply. That's where people will lose hope in bitcoin, while others who see it as an opportunity will use it to buy as many bitcoins as possible. After that sharp decline, the price of bitcoin will stabilize for a while, and then it will move up, and even the price can go up quickly, and people will not expect it.

We are far to see the halving so if there's more bad news which contribute to rise up the fear of investors for sure we will see this figure to come up. And while this scenario didn't happen yet we need to prepare for this and have another plan like starting to secure our earnings while there is since once this $10k figures will happen we can buy and grab the chance to gain when recovery time will happen.

you are right, we are just waiting for the time when btc will continue to go down, and I'm sure that time will surely come but who knows when,
a little thought if btc reaches 10k$ there will definitely be a possibility of it going back down, right, I don't think this is what anyone wants, FUD after FUD is always circulating and makes the value of btc continue to decline in how many % per FUD spread

I am not a good TA person but sometimes I like to look at chats to see in the coming future how they really turn out in relation to other price speculations.

Looking at the Bitcoin daily price chat, it does look like a Head and Shoulder pattern to me and like the support has been broken and if we did take the range from top to point of breaking down, it does seem that the $10k price is inevitable, I guess time will tell.

Europe will likely look elsewhere for their energy, because I don't think they have the infrastructure in place currently, and therefore the US might actually benefit from this whole scenario. US has the infrastructure, and the means of shipping it over long distance. So, I imagine a lot of European countries will start building the infrastructure required to become self reliant, but that'll take a good couple of years at full swing, so the US could well see a small boom from this.

Bitcoin isn't run by the US though, despite the US centric news everywhere, so Bitcoin isn't likely to benefit from it. Bitcoin will likely feel the effect of the boom for the US, and the downside of the energy crisis in Europe.

We can't say it's bounced back after the pandemic, since we're still in a pandemic, and therefore the effects have been compounded on each other. The effects usually don't play out until later down the line for these sort of things. So, I definitely wouldn't go as far to say that we've rebounded back after the pandemic. Technically, we're still in one.

The energy crisis which is looming is only for Europe although even US pays higher gas prices because of Russia the true crisis is for Europe.In such scenario we have seen Bitcoin perform better than expected like during the pandemic.The interest rate has no direct connection to the price of Bitcoin so we cannot predict the bottom although with how things are looking now we can expect the price of Bitcoin to be bearish for the short term while for the long term I know it will bounce back after we are deep in the energy crisis and inflation one.It did so on the pandemic so why it should not do so at that time?

I couldn't agree with you. Because we would be wrong to predict the Bitcoin downfall you are talking about. The Fed you are talking about is limited to the US only and is only practiced by them but Bitcoin is a global coin. If this Fed prevails in most countries then we can see the possibility of Bitcoin going down. So it becomes difficult for us to know the future of Bitcoin in advance.In my opinion Bitcoin will come back stronger and it will reach the highest level. Hopefully all goes well Bitcoin could hit $100,000 between 2023 and 24. Now we just have to wait and see where Bitcoin goes, there is nothing else we can do. Don't scare people by just making predictions.

The Fed only cuts interest rates when they think inflation is under control, I don't think the Fed will be lenient or stop until inflation does not cool down soon.
They have been very tough on the recent rate hikes, if they don't bring down inflation this will hurt their reputation and they think it will be even worse than Americans will be hurt like how.
The market will still fluctuate in an unstable direction, Bitcoin drop to 10k is possible but for me it's not too high, 15k is the last bottom of this bear season.

However, if it happens in the long run, I guess there’s no reason to fear it because it could be another opportunity to buy and hold. Although seems not possible to drop that far, but knowing bitcoin, everything is possible in it. As long as you never sell in loss and just continue to buy and hold, then maybe reaching $10k will not be a problem anymore, maybe for newbies it will.

Where did you hear it from? I think this is just the next Fuds being spread to drag the market down. It is true that we are in the midst of an energy crisis caused by war, but I see European countries as the most affected countries, serious power shortages are also taking place in some EU countries. But for many other countries, it's not so serious, not to the point of having to stop mining operations. Many countries use hydroelectricity, nuclear power, and wind power ... in most of these countries electricity prices do not increase too much.

Just because someone mentioned it doesn't mean that'll happen. If that was the case, we would have already seen Bitcoin at $100.000, something many claimed as a possibility in 2021. The world doesn't revolve around USA alone, $10.000 sounds too exaggerated, but possible nonetheless, not because of FED, but due to the ongoing recession and current macroeconomic environment going from bad to worse.

Honestly, while it would suck to see my Bitcoin worth half of what it is now, it'd be one of a kind opportunity to acquire more.

I don't think it will be a catastrophe if Bitcoin goes down to $10k, as I am sure it will recover from it. Hopefully, though, it won't come to it, as Bitcoin is already very low compared to the ATH point. Maybe US won't be as influential on the global Bitcoin market. Or maybe, before the supply's reduced, people will pour the money they have into Bitcoin, finally realizing that, unlike fiat, it doesn't suffer from inflation. Also, people in the US aren't as poor as to choose between basic needs and investments. Some are, of course, but it's also #1 economy in the world, and there are plenty of rich people who might be looking for investments that are less dependent on the global economy. Just recall the news of Covid stimulus checks being invested into Bitcoin, I bet many didn't see that coming and assumed that money would be spent directly on basic needs. It's a different thing, of course, and in fact the opposite of restrictive monetary policies, but I'm just saying that we shouldn't underestimate investing potential of people in the economy that's entering a recession.

For about 6 months BTC failed to be the hedge against inflation. This could extend a bit longer since the prophesized impending war still is coming as they are still preparing for it. The powerful countries are still showing off thier strengths and this is not a FUD for they intend to prolong it while FED also is disturbing the markets. Canada's banks are now capping crypto retailers of exposure to crypto. I think it will not just be in America but many countries will follow. With the energy crisis, there are already rumors the  about Bitcoin mining ban as well.

The ones who can afford are in the most advantagous position when the price plummets to $10k.

And we better follow the steps taken by the company to add more bitcoins as we can so that we can also benefit later. The current situation has allowed us to buy it and we may find it difficult to see the current price in the future. So take your time to analyze and start buying step by step and hold it until the price start increase again.

I don't care much about FUD but with the current world economic picture, bitcoin is still likely to fall more. While bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation, but it is also a risky investment so short-term price drops are normal. Given the Fed's current hawkish policy, it's no surprise that non-USD store assets are struggling. But in the long run, bitcoin will definitely rise in price and outpace other assets like USD or gold, so whether this is true news or FUD cannot affect the future of bitcoin.

Totally possible. It is because anything is possible with crypto. If the article was saying $1000 instead of $10000, I would still believe it. The current view is pretty bearish for crypto. The thing is, crypto isn't the only asset going down, stocks are going down too. Most people in the US have their retirement funds in the stock market. If the markets go down even more, that would hurt lots of elderly people that depend on the markets. At some point the FED will have to lower the interest rates again.

This could be another reason:

I have read somewhere that we can return to 11,000 levels, and although the price of bitcoin will seem cheap at that price, the economic conditions tell us that more is coming if there is no development with energy crisis and supply chains.

I think the Federal Bank will be more guided, but are they ready to go away in this policy? Generally, there is no direct connection between the price and the federal policies, but it remains influential.

Well, it would be more like plummeting 50% from current levels if it were to go from $20k to $10k? As we see, Bitcoin has been heavily affected by the flow of cheap money stopping around the world and as rates go up, these sort of assets look set to fall further as people would rather have more stable cash, commodities or shares. We have barely seen a dent in the stock market yet, with which Bitcoin does have some correlation, and it's likely to fall at least 10-20% if not more over the span of the next year. For many people the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general has worn off, it is no longer as desirable because it dropped so far so fast.

I hope you are right. but how are you so sure about that? everything is possible seeing how the condition and situation going on right now. and how much bitcoin is in pressure.

it is 100% a fud. but lets hope this bud doesn't trigger a panic sell and make this actually true. Bitcoin dropping to $10k would be a disaster for crypto market. and a lot of new investors and adoptor will loose their faith on  bitcoin.

There is no way to predict what will happen even in a few years and what we know from the market and how the price reacts is just based on what we have seen in the past, but the price that you suggested 10,000 USD is a bit far for bitcoin, especially when we see more stability in the market, but regardless of how the price reacts to the Fed, and even if the price does fall to 10K, there will still be buyers who wait for bitcoin at this price level while they place buy orders. They will surely have a much better hand to hold for a higher price even if that happens and the price falls to 10K.

I thought 10k price was suppose to be seen in 2022 now it has been shifted to 2023!
So how does fed normalising interest rate cause such a huge dump on btc? Does that mean all btc holders will immediately start selling simply because the interest rate has been normalised?
It doesn't make sense to me but we shall see how it all plays out.

You are right, 1BTC=1BTC no matter what the price may be. But we should also note the fact that even though an interest rate hike is an advantage to Bitcoin to the US dollars exchange rate the positive effect will come in the long run and if the fed decision is made it may give Bitcoin a short-term pullback in price, but I don't think we will see Bitcoin dipping down to 10k even though many are waiting and expecting that price to happen so that they can fill their bag with more Bitcoin at a cheaper rate. This speculation has no data to back it up that we will see a 10k price in 2023. So let us just enjoy the moment and give Bitcoin some time to develop and grow with adoption and we should focus less on speculations.

easiest thing is to do if not interested in the finer details of this years measures or predictions or fundementals
take the highest price bitcoin ever achieved
$70k
divide it by 3 (23.3k)
colour code if for cheapness..
0-$24   $24- $47   $47-$70
if the price is in the green odds are your good to buy with lower risk compared to the red zone

I guess we need to get to 2023 first to find out, I have read different versions of how low btc could drop that I don't take them too serious anymore except waiting to see any of it actually hit the predicted price.
Btc could go high, go low or stay within same price in 2023 who knows.

Seems very unlikely. Probably the $17.5k bottom in June was the bottom. If things get a lot worse economically then yes it could drop lower, but probably not near $10k. Bitcoin was getting stronger until people realized the Fed was going to keep raising interest rates for a while (which doesn't actually affect Bitcoin in the slightest, the way it affects companies and their stocks, but people don't understand that Bitcoin is different from a stock so they sell it along with their stocks lol).

Basically, if the Fed doesn't crush the US economy with a bunch more large interest rate raises, then Bitcoin ain't going anywhere near $10k. Even if the Fed does this, it may just keep Bitcoin at/under $20k whereas Bitcoin otherwise was looking ready to move back to $30k's this Fall.

Why would Bitcoin drop more? It should be the exact opposite. Governments still print money like there is no tomorrow, inflation is at all time high in most countries, even today's 1$ is lower than yesterday's 1$. Why should Bitcoin go down? It should go up instead. I don't buy these FUD news. I don't think anybody who has a couple of years experience would buy it either.
Even today's prices are very low for Bitcoin. I wouldn't wait for 17-18k to buy back, I already bought again and 2-3k$ difference is not much important when you look at the bigger picture. Bring more FUD, it's okay, we get used to it. But if you make FUD, next time try to be more convincing. At least try to give a logical explanation.

its those that "miss the low" that can never see that the window is
| SOV  ||  market potential window (shortterm)  |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0        15  ^     30        45        60        75        90

breaking the $15k wall is no easy task. and yet they cant see the $15k-$90k window where $20k is still super cheap

all they can see is all that missed opportunity of the past of:
2010 10cent, 2012 $6, 2015 $400, etc

..
heck i have hoard from 2012 days. yet even i was happy at $30k this year to buy and again at $20k
i have no NEED to buy more. but while the price is in green. i will

..
with electric prices increasing which increase manufacturing costs too that window is more likely to rise to allow a window opportunity above $100k. more so then fall to $10k at the other end

the window amounts need to be open up to even let the price(inside the window) to even move, wiggle, spike or dip to reach amounts inside the window

I want to say it's all priced in. Been seeing for months now the numbers get even worse than the market fears, and yet Bitcoin's been quite steadfast in resisting further falls -- to the point even worse-than-expected macro data actually results in a bounce up.

On the other hand, there are still a lot of bets riding against the expected ebb of global economy so these bets losing or winding down could yet result in a domino effect, flushing out the last of the risk-heavy bettors, so yeah, $10k isn't an unreasonable bottom over the next 12 months.

I think this one-eyed interpretation from some of the so-called financial experts are becoming more and more predictable. The Bitcoin price are not just determined by the large first world economies. We can have several small countries accepting Bitcoin as a currency and the price might explode.

Bitcoin has gone down to $3000+ and recovered to a all-time-high of $60 000+ ....so we are not shivering in our pants with predictions like this. Let's look at the global impact of all factors and not just the influences of some of the giants from the first world countries.  

  Yes that's absolutely what I think also, the rumours of Mt Gox might be fueled by institutional investors trying to buy bitcoin at cheaper rate, one of the benefactor of Mt Gox debunk the news that they will be receiving bitcoin soon, it was stated that Gox would release its bitcoin last month August, we are now in September and yet we have not see any sign of the release, bitcoin price plunged after all those news, either new low or not we will see how it goes before the end of the year

And also sure, this time will be the best time for some companies that will start to add Bitcoin to their balance sheet but on the other side, there will be some companies that will have a tough situation because some of their entries or price of Bitcoin they bought will be the underwater situation.

If the price drops to $10,000, it will be a blessing for those of us who want to have more bitcoins because we can buy them at such a low price that we are just waiting for the price to rise again. The important thing is, if that moment really comes, you must prepare your money to buy it so you don't miss buying it at a low price. But if it did arrive, many people would panic because they weren't prepared for the price drop.

Yeah, I would agree with most of that. The recession is going to be the biggest contributor to the downward fall of Bitcoin. However, that fall isn't exclusive to Bitcoin. Businesses, stocks or anything not deemed essential to live will go down. They'll start recovering once people are handling their money better or we're coping with the recession a little more, since their buying power will increase, and therefore they'll have money for something else other than the bare essentials.

However, Bitcoin does differ slightly due to its deflationary, and a currency. So, people might take the risk because they're sick, and tired of being caught up in a recession every couple of years. Obviously, that's not including those that can't afford to live, but those that are probably described as middle class.

With the recent Fed meeting, it seems that they are being very tough on their decision, they think it will even cause pain for the US economy and the world economy. Their only goal is to do everything to bring the inflation rate to 2%, commodity prices will fall, that is the only goal they are pursuing.

The probability of the next rate hike will be 75 basis points and this will really cause financial markets to continue witnessing a strong wobble. Bitcoin dumping $10k is possible with the harsh policies of the Fed.

If that's true then it's very nonsensical, given that we are around $20K right now and I don't see why anybody would wait for the sake of a few less thousands of bucks.

i feel the topic creator is a "lagger" someone not wanting to buy just yet.. thinks he missed the $17k bottom for q1-q3 of 2022, and hopes for another chance.. and wants to try a "dump and pump" (opposite of pump and dump)
scare people into selling(shorting) to then get them place orders for buy in at $10k. knowing it wont hit their $10k buy in. but he wont care about their missed orders..  he just wants to buy in at a lower price than $20k, by causing everyone else to push a sell run down in price
a dump and pump doesnt work if his idea is $15k to say $15k. it only works if his ideal $15k buy in if he tells everyone else $10k

when these types of people do a $10k dump and pump ploy. they are looking to buy in anything below $20k spending more the lower it can get
not caring about those they influenced who lost value along the way

when these types of people done a $70k pump and dump ploy. they were looking to sell in anything above $40k(last run) spending more the higher it got
not caring about those they influenced who lost value along the way

Bitcoin dropping to $10,000 by 2023 is possibly but I wouldn't bet on it, too much support seems in place for it to go this low.  Sounds like more FUD by institutions to increase their holdings by shaking down and out weak hands and panic sellers. 

It's funny you should say that because it does have an effect. The recession is largely caused by monetary policy to combat inflation. What the Fed and other central banks are doing now is reducing the money available. With less money available, people have less money in general, and with less money in general, if they have to choose between spending less money to invest or buying bitcoin, and meeting their basic needs, they choose the latter. In more serious cases of needing money, people sell what they have of value, such as bitcoin, gold, shares or whatever, to cover their needs, as you said.

So in reality the Fed's policy does affect the price of bitcoin because it is largely responsible for the recession.

Who is that and why should I care about what he says?

It has no influence over bitcoin but it is sad to see people still think that over the past year or two and they actually panic sell bitcoin because of this idiotic thing too!

That won't have any effects on bitcoin.
The only thing in US that is going to seriously affect bitcoin is the recession. If more bitcoiners in US have to choose between going hungry and HODLing bitcoin we can see more sales leading to more drops. Otherwise what the FED does is not affecting bitcoin.

anything can happen, even if we say it will be under $10k in a few months it is still very possible. The market situation is indeed not good because many FUDs are being spread to disrupt the stability of bitcoin. Before hitting the $10k price bitcoin must also break through the $17k barrier which is the closest wall to reach a lower drop. indeed there is nothing to worry about if we are ready, that is, ready to buy at the lowest price with the spare money we have and ready to go up and sell at the new ATH. a bear market is certain, but a bull market is also certain and will come soon if we can be patient and can manage the strategy well.

Not to this extent, yes, there are many indications that Bitcoin will continue to decline, but I doubt that it will reach the 10K level, but in any case, no one can predict the future accurately. The expected scenario for me is that Bitcoin will continue to decline until November, then we will see a good start until the end of the year So I am not worried about bitcoin falling.

And why should we give weight to Bannister's thoughts? But, be that as it may, $10,000 as the bottom is not that bad. At least it provides another round of opportunities to those who wish to buy Bitcoin at a much lower entry point.

However, while the Fed is trying to strengthen the USD, many of the world's currencies are falling in value quite fast. Therefore, Bitcoin is still a good currency or asset of refuge. In Argentina, for example, many would still choose Bitcoin over their fiat despite the bear market. With Bitcoin losing so much for the last months, it is still the less risky choice.

When bitcoin was 3000-4000$ during the early covid days, i heard voices saying that bitcoin will reach 1000$ etc but that never happened. Similarly, we are again seeing people thinking bitcoin to reach below 10K, which may never happen. If you want to invest in bitcoin, do not wait for your bids near 10K and left out. Better to buy some now and buy more in case it reaches those low values.
By the way, i don't think fed news can make people sell all of their bitcoin, I really don't think it will happen.

There's a good amount of short-term correlation between Bitcoin and mainstream economy, but it's not strong enough to cause a 50% drop. The last time when something like that happened was when the initial COVID-19 restrictions were announced and Bitcoin suffered a 50% crash in almost a day. This Fed announcement won't have such effect, as it is more predictable and not as dramatic for the economy. Also, when that covid-related crash happened, Bitcoin very quickly recovered and a year later it entered a huge bull run. So don't think that a crash is the end of the world.

Why 10k? That would have to completely nullify what chart analysts were tracing for the last 10 years. No tech adoption curve, no regression curves, no 200 week ma lows, no lengthening cycles, and so on. In 2023 we'll be just a few months before the next halving and you expect the price to literally halve as well?

I don't feel like the US FED can keep tightening for another year. If they do they will crash the stock market and start a recession, which means unemployment and bankruptcies and this means less taxes paid. They can't do it.

I know, you definitely want to buy as much bitcoin as you can, right? 
There's always a chance under $10k because the Fed's policies are always changing. But I don't think we're going to hit $10K and I'm more confident about $13K or more because the purchasing power at the time of the price drop is expected to be huge. People are waiting for the dip to buy, so it's hard to expect it won't bounce quickly on a dip.

It's actually been two years now since Bitcoin left the $10k zone (June 2020) and from the look of things I strongly don't doubt the prediction that Bitcoin might crosses the $10k benchmark, but if it does then that might trigger another massive bull run, of which the price may passes the previous "All Time High".

These are all assumptions that the media is telling us about. In reality, absolutely no one knows what can happen to bitcoin even in a week, because sometimes the price depends on just one tweet. I wouldn't trust all kinds of analysts who have little idea about the whole bitcoin infrastructure, at a price of 10k the whole mining could die. I don't know what the price will be, but I do know that 10k is fantastic, although I don't rule out the short-term nature of such a price, which will be a gift for all of us.

Interest rate hike is supposed to be a catalyst through which bitcoin will gain much more value and not the other way round.

And besides, I think Bitcoin dropping to $10,000(if this is at all possible) is a giveaway opportunity for people to buy more at a cheaper rate,
1 bitcoin is also 1 bitcoin when we remove the dollar value it's measured by, I am patiently waiting for that time in the future when we will not have to compare measure bitcoin in dollars anymore.

The interest rate hike is the major factor that decides to what extent the downwards movement continues. Whenever the announcement is done the market used to decline and the same gets used by Whale holders. One such downturn made the price touch $17k. This time this could go even further. Request you to stay happy without iu

People are sure about a big bearish move, but even at such drops people won't make use of it as an opportunity. For god's sake majority will continue to watch the price movements and take necessary action.

Many people have different opinions about Bitcoin's price, but the majority of people do not believe that Bitcoin will fall to the $10,000 range. It may fall below the $20k mark, but it will almost certainly not fall below $10k. Since the beginning of the year 2022, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated around the $20-$25k range, and now the year is coming to an end and Bitcoin has not risen; perhaps it will fall below $20k, but I am confident it will not fall below $10k.

somehow I always think $10k is an unattractive price to touch, I know maybe the effect of all of this has an impact on the bitcoin price but I'm sure it won't hit the $10k price, trust me it won't touch it

Fed will always try all they think is right fro them to buy back the trust of the people by increasing interest rate on savings and also introducing new monitory policy which they think will bring back investors. They have always been doing that but it doesn't change anything to people who believe in btc. Btc might go below 16k$ but me I don't see 10k below anytime in 2023 and even if it do happen btc bad days don't last forever. I see nothing to worry about in that article, lot's of people have predicted the fall to go below 12k$ this year but I have not even seen 14k$.

While I ain't going to dispute that it would likely have an effect, and a big one. the FED aren't worldwide, and only regulate within the United States, Bitcoin is a global currency. The real concern would be if other countries follow suit in a relatively short time, that's when you'll see a real panic. This figure of 10k is just being plucked out of the air, rather than having solid reasoning behind it. Will we see a drop? Probably. However, predicting that accurately isn't going to be an easy job. Although, I will say that I think it's coming at a good time, pretty much when we're already down, they're going to give us another kick, but also the interest in Bitcoin right now isn't that big due to people being a little more concerned about other things happening in the world, like the war, and the rising living costs. So, this news might not have as big of an impact that we would like to think it would.

I'm not too bothered of Bitcoin dropping a bit more, and anyone that's in it for the medium or long term shouldn't be either. Just see it as a opportunity to gather a bit more Bitcoin.

$10k would be a fairly round number for us to stop at though so we probably wouldn't be able to stop there. Which might mean we could go below that or hold a bit above it - and it'll be particularly interesting if we go below imo (especially if it stays there for a few days).

There's probably enough people trying to guess the bottom though and only one will be right, we're nowehere near the $14k low that was prophesised to be the bottom of the last drop too.

Bitcoin could plummet 76% from current levels to $10,000 by 2023 as the cryptocurrency faces three macro headwinds that have an influence on its price, according to a note from Stifel's Barry Bannister.

Bannister highlighted global money supply, the 10-Year US Treasury yield, and the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 that have influence over the price of bitcoin. Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

"In 2022, we see bitcoin in a broad trading range bounded by year-to-date intra-day levels with greater downside risk in 2023 if the Fed continues to normalize policy in a 'standard' two-year tightening cycle," Bannister explained.

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