Bitcoin crypto is from the 20th century - how long can it last?

hardpick

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Quote from: Littleshop on May 22, 2012, 03:37:21 PM

Quote from: piotr_n on May 21, 2012, 05:12:11 PM

So imagine: it is year 2112 and for one bitcoin you can rent a nice apartment for one month...

In 2112 if bitcoin was around it would be worth a fuckton of money even after adjusting for the inflation of 100 years. By then it would be a large percentage of mainstream or it would simply not exist. I could not see a middle ground where it was still being used but by a tiny fringe of society that far out.

The math is really simple. 1 BTC = 1 fuckton of money * the amount of inflation from now until 2112. There. An exact answer.

I throught most "Money" depreciated by 3%-4% per year at that rate you will be hard press to buy a cup of coffee --- oops I mean a coffe bean

Boussac

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e-ducat.fr

Quote from: barbarousrelic on May 29, 2012, 09:23:22 PM

I would say that ECDSA is Bitcoin's "core crypto." If someone found a flaw in SHA-256, Bitcoin would be disrupted but could be resumed with a new hashing method from some point before SHA was broken. Breaking SHA256 doesn't allow you to spend other people's bitcoins. If ECDSA was broken, you can spend anyone's Bitcoins, and the entire thing is tits up.

True.
One could say even that the crypto is from the 17th century because that's when Fermat stated his Last Theorem that gave birth to elliptic curves in finite fields theory..
It took mathematicians from all over the world more than 350 years to come up with a valid proof of the theorem.
I would not worry too much about how fast ECDSA will be "broken "

barbarousrelic

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I would say that ECDSA is Bitcoin's "core crypto." If someone found a flaw in SHA-256, Bitcoin would be disrupted but could be resumed with a new hashing method from some point before SHA was broken. Breaking SHA256 doesn't allow you to spend other people's bitcoins. If ECDSA was broken, you can spend anyone's Bitcoins, and the entire thing is tits up.

BinaryMage

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Ad astra.

Quote from: piotr_n on May 29, 2012, 03:14:14 PM

Thanks everyone for contributing into this topic for the 38th time, just because I was too lazy to have gone through the first 37.

I got my answer and I am glad to know that I'm not the only person who sees the potential problem.
So I guess we only need to hope that a proper BIP based approach will be achieved before its too late

If a hacker found a weakness in SHA256, Bitcoin would be far from the most financially viable first target to attack. Our size protects us right now.

piotr_n

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Thanks everyone for contributing into this topic for the 38th time, just because I was too lazy to have gone through the first 37.

I got my answer and I am glad to know that I'm not the only person who sees the potential problem.
So I guess we only need to hope that a proper BIP based approach will be achieved before its too late

kjlimo

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Quote from: divergenta on May 21, 2012, 05:16:22 PM

This has been discussed at least 37 times before on this forum.

We should start a forum to keep track of how many forums have discussed this...

Maybe we should just add a pole? That way we are sure.. that the results will give an answer that we can all accept as true & then start a new forum asking how many people thought the pole was right.

But then we'll need to update forum #1...

This is gonna be a lot of work... screw it I'ma play D3

~ciao

Littleshop

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Quote from: piotr_n on May 21, 2012, 05:12:11 PM

So imagine: it is year 2112 and for one bitcoin you can rent a nice apartment for one month...

In 2112 if bitcoin was around it would be worth a fuckton of money even after adjusting for the inflation of 100 years. By then it would be a large percentage of mainstream or it would simply not exist. I could not see a middle ground where it was still being used but by a tiny fringe of society that far out.

The math is really simple. 1 BTC = 1 fuckton of money * the amount of inflation from now until 2112. There. An exact answer.

barbarousrelic

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Quote from: Lumpy on May 21, 2012, 05:37:41 PM

Interesting read:

http://everything2.com/title/Thermodynamics+limits+on+cryptanalysis

Very interesting, but remember this only applies to brute force attacks. Someone might find a mathematical weakness in SHA256.

Boussac

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e-ducat.fr

Quote from: piotr_n on May 21, 2012, 05:16:54 PM

And what was the answer?

The short answer is: we say that the past blocks are good and now we switch to a new SHA from block X on: release a client upgrade to handle the new blocks, that's it !
Another faq is about quantum computing: well then all the banking systems, nuclear plants, military systems must upgrade,
why not bitcoin ?
The long answers are in the previous 37 threads. Wink

Lumpy

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Interesting read:

http://everything2.com/title/Thermodynamics+limits+on+cryptanalysis

hamdi

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thats what the BIP´s are for...
we will simply upgrade the encryption to the newest standard

piotr_n

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aka tonikt

And what was the answer?

divergenta

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This has been discussed at least 37 times before on this forum.

piotr_n

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I don't know how to start a poll, though I'd like one here.

Anyway, I wonder what do you think about the core bitcoin's crypto, SHA-256.
If you can make the same block, with your own transaction, while having the same sha256 hash - you basically beat the system and destroy all the currency (after using it for your own needs).
And we know it's theoretically possible - isn't it?
It's only a matter of a computer that is powerful enough to find different block, designed by us, with the same hash? Eventually cracking the crypto somehow, to make it so much easier.

So imagine: it is year 2112 and for one bitcoin you can rent a nice apartment for one month...
Do you think the she256 would still stand unbeatable?

Topic: Bitcoin crypto is from the 20th century - how long can it last? (Read 1960 times)