Topic: Bitcoin cycles comparison: halving, top, bottom, crossing top of previous cycle. (Read 73 times)
October 09, 2024, 03:41:04 AM
Well, in this case we see that although many people despair, we are following a certain regularity of previous cycles, and if this one were to be similar the best is yet to come. The first era was the one that started the bull run the fastest as well as the one with the highest return, as it is logical, and it only remains to see what happens in this cycle to draw conclusions because if this one in returns remains below the previous one, which was already disappointing, I think we will have to forget about very high returns in the future no matter how many people insist that institutional money will take the price to the moon, something that was already said in the last cycle and did not happen.
October 09, 2024, 12:19:59 AM
Quote
Halvings lead to a reduction in rewards for Bitcoin miners, resulting in a decreased supply of newly minted coins. The resulting scarcity often drives the price upwards as demand outpaces supply, frequently marking the beginning of new bull cycles.
The supply of bitcoins is always increasing, even after a halving. There is no "resulting scarcity".
Also, "supply of newly minted coins" is called production. Since there is no such thing as "production and demand", some people like to write "supply of newly minted coins" so they can make mistaken allusions to "supply and demand".
October 08, 2024, 10:14:55 AM
It has already pumped due to anticipation, no more momentum left and too low new cash inflow.
The best you can hope now is to stay afloat but it will probably just drop to new average, somewhere around 32-35K USD and stay there for another 4 years.
The best you can hope now is to stay afloat but it will probably just drop to new average, somewhere around 32-35K USD and stay there for another 4 years.
October 08, 2024, 06:11:33 AM
I have been using the Cycle Low Multiple from Bitbo and that seems to be more intuitive as you can see days from Halving and how exactly Bitcoin went up after every Halving.
I will keep this website bookmarked too, just to be sure I am looking at the cycle correctly with my 4 eyes (I wear glasses, lmao). Thanks for this, make sure to check them out too.
https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/
I will keep this website bookmarked too, just to be sure I am looking at the cycle correctly with my 4 eyes (I wear glasses, lmao). Thanks for this, make sure to check them out too.
https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/
October 08, 2024, 06:02:07 AM
https://www.bitcoincyclescomparison.com
This website plots previous cycles and this cycle on the same chart, overlays different cycles, for easily visual comparison. There are four tabs to choose for plotting chart and make comparison.
They have a note and disclaimer that is worth to read.
You never can predict the market accurately, can not time in the market, so with this tool or more tools, it's worth to note down, if you make your investment or trading based on predictions, you will lose money some day.
With all 4 options, something to note in my opinion. You can get these figures after clicking on four available tabs.
Scales become smaller cycle by cycle. I don't know why this site always gives scale x1 for this current cycle.
Halving
Bottom
Top
Crossing top of previous cycle
This website plots previous cycles and this cycle on the same chart, overlays different cycles, for easily visual comparison. There are four tabs to choose for plotting chart and make comparison.
Quote from: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison
How to Use the Bitcoin Cycles Comparison Tool
The chart displays both the current and historical Bitcoin cycles, overlaid for easy comparison. To ensure a fair comparison, historical cycles are scaled to start at the same price as the current cycle. This allows you to analyze and contrast the price movements of different cycles, providing valuable insights into Bitcoin's past and present performance.
You have 4 options to define the start of the cycles
The chart displays both the current and historical Bitcoin cycles, overlaid for easy comparison. To ensure a fair comparison, historical cycles are scaled to start at the same price as the current cycle. This allows you to analyze and contrast the price movements of different cycles, providing valuable insights into Bitcoin's past and present performance.
You have 4 options to define the start of the cycles
- Halving: Each cycle will begin at the date of the halving event.
- Bottom: Each cycle will start at the date when the price reaches its lowest point between the all-time high (ATH) and the next halving event.
- Top: Each cycle will begin at the date when the price reaches its highest point before the next halving event.
- Crossing top of previous cycle: Each cycle starts at the date when it surpasses the previous all-time high (ATH).
They have a note and disclaimer that is worth to read.
Quote
Bitcoin Cycles Comparison is not investment advice! Past performance is not an indication of future results. You can not predict the price of Bitcoin with this tool!
You never can predict the market accurately, can not time in the market, so with this tool or more tools, it's worth to note down, if you make your investment or trading based on predictions, you will lose money some day.
With all 4 options, something to note in my opinion. You can get these figures after clicking on four available tabs.
Scales become smaller cycle by cycle. I don't know why this site always gives scale x1 for this current cycle.
Halving
- Nov 2012 -Nov 2016: scale x5,206.6
- Jul 2016 - Jul 2020: scale x98.4
- May 2020 - May 2024: scale x7.5
- Apr 2024 - Oct 2024:
Bottom
- Nov 2011 - Nov 2015: scale x7,005.3
- Jan 2015 - Jan 2019: scale x91.3
- Dec 2018 - Dec 2022: scale x4.9
- Nov 2022 -Oct 2024:
Top
- Jun 2011 - Jun 2015: scale 2,196.8
- Nov 2013 -Nov 2017: scale x58.1
- Dec 2017 - Dec 2021: scale x3.4
- Nov 2021 - Oct 2024:
Crossing top of previous cycle
- Feb 2013 - Feb 2017: scale x2,044.1
- Feb 2017 - Feb 2021: scale x54.1
- Dec 2020 - Oct 2024: scale x3
- Mar 2024 - Oct 2024:
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