Topic: Bitcoin cycles, this is the cyclical minimum (Read 672 times)

Even speculation continues and there are many different opinions about when the bull market will occur. A good investment is an investment made using money that will not be used for anything in the future and types of investments such as housing and health are investments that must be made.
Investment does take patience and quite a long time to get profits, you just need to be patient and have to be smart about how to manage money so that it can be enough for other needs, 2022 is a difficult time, we just need to be patient and wait for good times to come.

As per the earlier start of bearish trend in this current cycle, I expected earlier bulls as well but unfortunately bitcoin got stuck into $16.5k zone for more time than unusual. This may be due to the threat of 4th wave of covid and another slow down of economic situation. We need microstrategy or elon musk kind of whale investors on board but that kind of good news are getting delayed due to fear of recession.

I agree that bulls' time is about to begin but it must have started already as we are in the last week of 2022. Anyway, this is not too late hence even bulls arrive in next 2 to 3 weeks then everything will be fine and as per cycle. Let's see what the New Year unfolds for all the bitcoiners.

The question is, when will it happen and that is what has been speculated so far.
Inflation requires us to adjust income and spending, especially when it looks like the economy is entering a recession.
To be honest, we don't always have to think about how to prepare money and minimize spending just for investment. In fact, we also need to invest in something that is mandatory, such as health and home / residence.

I actually know that the bear market is the right moment to invest. The more we can invest, the more likely it is to profit when the market turns around, this has probably been said a lot but still we need time and a lot of patience to get through the current economic problem.

The current bearish market cycle is the right moment to collect Bitcoin and some potential altcoin assets.
At the beginning of the year if the market continues to fall then we only need to be prepared with some spare cash. adjust to financial conditions and must be strong for long-term maintenance.
When the bear market has reached its saturation point, then the time for a bull market will come, that's what we've been waiting for.

Lots of so-called analysts had been floating around and throwing up lots of speculations around on what are those probable things that might happen ahead and make out some presumptions about being a cycle
but eventually these things arent really that 100% precise as we all know but it isnt really that bad to make out some read up at least. I do even hear of about that crypto winter would be ending on year
2026 which i would rather say it to be realistic at least and we wont be seeing some bullish scenario on upcoming 4 years to come. Too negative? well, i dont make myself that too hopeful
for things which arent totally that realistic to happen on shortest time as possible.

The market has been very bearish at the moment, in fact there are analysts who say there is a possibility the market will become even more bearish during the early next year. I don't want it, but anyway we can never prevent it from happening as long as there is panic in the market. The focus right now is on investing in any dip and DCA as financially adjusted as possible. We may be at a lower level, but this cycle will be good again in the future. Now buy and hold, that's a really good option for us to do.

Instead of thinking about a new record with a very high target for a very long time, it's better to think realistically and not get your hopes up too high as long as everyone can be grateful when they see Bitcoin rising towards $70K. Which means that a price of that size is also a new record for Bitcoin even though it is still below $100K which logically still takes time for Bitcoin to reach. And for next year I will also be happier if Bitcoin can be at $ 35K. Because everyone cannot set targets as desired if market conditions have not recovered from the impact of the FUD that occurred this year.

Well, from 19,000$ (2017) to 69,000$ (2021) on the two last previous ATHs make me believe it's solid to predict bitcoin can touch the 100,000$ mark on the next ATH. It's a 45% increasement against a 265% increasement of the previous cycle. Following that reading, it seems a piece of cake for btc to hit the mentioned mark by 2024-2025.

Moreover, being extremely optimistic, the 200,000$ goal doesn't look impossible too... It's a 190% increasement in price from currently ATH to the desired goal. Inferior percentage to what we have already seen from 2017 to 2021. It means it's possible!

Huge growth, at the moment it may sound a little strange, but we hope that Bitcoin will reach $ 100k in the next 2 years, but this is a very big dream, anything can happen, hope Bitcoin will reach $ 200k in 2025 this is not wrong, in fact everyone wants it to be. The target value of $200k Bitcoin is very large, of course it requires extra movement to reach it,
a new record will soon be set again.

With the way Bitcoin crash this year i dont think that the price will still reach thirty thousand in next year, because from this December being this period it's when we are supposed to be seeing the signs of Bitcoin increment, but we have not noticed any signs that Bitcoin price will try to increase, bitcoin price can only regain it's price when it comes to 2025, because nothing is showing of Bitcoin price since i havs that seeing bitcoin.

No price will move in isolation, we already acknowledge inflation is a common debasement of price accuracy.   Part of any BTC gain is this loss by other currencies, at some points in the cycle BTC makes far more sense to hold then Dollar or some other very risky currency even while BTC can go down it sometime on average realize quite reliable gains.   Long term we all know BTC has been far more able then almost anyone predicted.
  BTC at any six figures number will only be in a world that has changed and each cycle of BTC it doesnt seem able to go back fully because of this loss in value for other currencies.   My take on the last five years is currency lost half its value (apparent or not they cannot reverse back so it is lost), the central banks threaten to raise the cost of money but it would drive the fiscal budget to ruin if debt was properly serviced with rates above inflation, that doesnt happen what happens is constant prices rising including the use of BTC.

It would be pretty difficult but it could happen. What we need to remember is that when bitcoin goes up that much, usually that means we are going to see stocks go up as well. Like Apple is worth 3+ trillion and so forth type of deal.

This means if bitcoin reaches 200k, it would be possible to be the most valuable thing and more valuable than all companies, but that doesn't mean that it's impossible for apple to be higher as well, that could happen too if the stock market goes up. However, as long as we are near the top that doesn't matter, it is important to keep bitcoin in the top 10 and as long as we can do that it's going to be fine.

$200k is not easy but it needs a lot of money so yeah. Once BTC reached it, it can now bypass other valuable stocks and other investment assets. Not only that but people will now value their BTC more. They will now hardly spend it and they will only stack more coins in their bags because they already have an idea that BTC has a lot of potential.

I do not think the growth of the stocks can rise because of that but it will decrease more actually because many stocks investors will be attracted to BTC. They think investing in stocks is a waste of time because they can only earn less after hodling it for a very long time but if only they do that in BTC, they can earn much more.

Yes, I think we all agree to that.


Doesn't matter if we hit $10k as the final capitulation in this bear market. This could be the worst scenario. But if it will catapult to $100k minimum or $200k maximum then I will  take it this bear market, continue to accumulate and wait for the next bull run. It might not sit with the majority in the beginning, but once they realized what had happen, then probably they will agree too that $10k is necessary.

there will be a lot of adoptions if indeed the price of bitcoin will reach $ 200k in 2025. when the price of bitcoin reaches the expected new ATh of $ 100k, many will start to look at bitcoin again and adoption will be more intensive. Developing countries will start doing research on bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies, or even create their own cryptocurrencies but remain bitcoin-centric. I don't expect more, I just want bitcoin to return to the previous ATH and then reach a new ATH in 4th halving cycle.

At some point we have to seriously stop using market capitalization to talk about bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency for that matter). Bitcoin is not a company or a stock in the stock market to have market cap. It is a currency and it has to be compared with currencies like a currency. Something like money supply is more suitable to use instead. You have to consider that bitcoin is competing with all fiat currencies in the world: dollar, euro, ruble, yuan, yen, pound,... Suddenly $200k total doesn't look like much, does it?

I just hope bitcoin can hit $100k by 2025, $200k is a pretty high target but for bitcoin anything is possible. There's still plenty of room to get there, as our economy also recovered in 2025 and started a new phase of growth, so a super cycle is very likely. The current bitcoin capitalization is about 300 billion, so to reach the market capitalization of 4 trillion, bitcoin only needs to increase 12-15 times.

That is a very significant growth if the next cycle is $200k but we always look at past history where bitcoin has always been a new record every cycle will in a few years we will see that price? Certainly expect something bigger for us to see regarding the price of bitcoin in the future.
The market cap will be bigger, it may even surpass the worldwide stock market with the highest capitalist, but I think bitcoin needs a strong run to reach the price of $200k while it's still a long way to go new records will surely be made again.
We already know that several countries have adopted bitcoin, it will gradually become a legal currency due to adoption.

How wonderful if bitcoin reaches $200k in the next cycle. With that price, I assume bitcoin will become more valuable than the most valuable stock in the world which I believe is reasonable enough. Although the growth of stocks might also increase a lot by that time and some of them might reach $5 trillion or even more. But bitcoin by 2025 priced at around $4 trillion in market cap is huge. In order to achieve it, adoptions may need to happen, probably another country or more will adopt bitcoin as a legal currency.  

Time is a correction as well as price, if anything I think the time element is more important then the price objective people might have.   The dollar price is not a fixed worth, every year the dollar itself has varied and usually on average there is value lost from dollar worth and costs of basic goods rise.    So its quite clear even if the price was steady the value would be altering and correcting over time.
  The cycle peak and low will take time to turn over, usually its when all have lost patience it starts over.   Im going to think of it as something like a camshaft or engine cyclinder cycle, lots of variables but the exhaust vs combustion stage is what I find comparable to how we process price over time.

With the OP I agree on the message of buying Bitcoin for what it is, as an asset it is much better than altcoins, or the stock market, although I believe in diversification.

Whether this is the minimum or not, neither he nor anyone else knows. We have seen too many times already extremely detailed analysis, even very suffisticated theories, that failed miserably.


To me, it looks like it's going to cost over $100k next cycle. The normal thing is that after the next halving it will clearly go above it, but I think it's going to take a lot of tries because of the psychological factor and the sell orders that are going to be placed around that figure. Under normal conditions the price could even go above $200k next cycle, but after what we've seen in this one, it's not so clear.

Bitcoin recovering is something that will come unexpectedly, so i believe that the price of Bitcoin going up and down can come just a day, so i believe that Bitcoin price recover in this 2023, let our prayers should investors should come in the cryptocurrency sphere 2023, but i know that they will different in cryptocurrency market in 2023 than 2022 that's remaining few days.

I disagree a bit for the bottom line at $10K, because that doesn't have to happen for Bitcoin to see a higher rise to $100K with a target date of 2024. Bitcoin can still increase without going down to the bottom and also without having to make all people have become very frantic in holding Bitcoins. Because when everyone is panicking about holding Bitcoin, it will only slow down the price increase in the market for Bitcoin. So for a large increase, Bitcoin can still increase from its current price without dropping to $10K.

it is mostly happen , that in the so near end of the year? bitcoin price falling and even bad for that days like what I've seen for how many times now so what is the difference from this year and the previous?
and there is also no Hopes for 2023 so expect this long term and there are no soon big recoveries from the whole market .

That's pure speculation at this point, probably the legdown could be $13k, $10k? it's going to be the final capitulation if we eventually reach that price.

Nevertheless, it's hard to predict where the price will be $15k is already low for this bear market, but who can forget $3,200 around the initial scare during March 2020 that put the market to it's knees? So who knows, maybe history will repeat itself again and see the market going down hard this bear market.

But in exchange, the market will thrive in the next bull run, $100k could be just the tip and it could go very high for a next ATH.

I do not agree that it could be 10k, that is way too low and there is absolutely nothing realistic about the current bottom as well, it looks like it's already shaky grounds and will probably go higher, which means that lower is even more unlikely. Not many people could see this about bitcoin but it is not naturally growing lower, it is something that makes money only when it goes up, and shorting it is the only way to make money when it goes down, which is limited.

This means that people are aiming at making it go higher if they can, sometimes they can't but that's the goal of more people than keeping it low and that is why it naturally tends to grow bigger overtime, maybe few years but it always reaches higher.

I agree with you on that, as the final downside leg of BTC is yet to take place IMHO and it might make it fall even below $10k because the bottom has not yet been created, else we'd have seen a strong bounce back from $15500 itself. I strongly believe that a big move will take place during the last week of December or till mid January, be it a shot down or a straight big green candle. Be prepared for the volatility and trade safe.

Yeah, that could be the base price for the next bull run, we all know that this is the target last bull run, but we just run out of steam. And so the next time, and as big as the previous runs, we could hit $100k.

As for the bottom, I do agree, still going to be very bearish next year and it's possible that we haven't seen the bottom. It's kinda scary, but we have to accept that and prepare ourselves for next year possible worst scenario.

Some investors may even think that 100k for the next bull run is kind of low, but taking into account that the previous bull run was not as strong as the ones we saw before, it makes sense that investors are more cautious now and prefer to make more conservative predictions.

However it is entirely possible we have not reached the bottom yet as we never know if we could face more disasters like luna or FTX, or if another unexpected event happened and the world economy faced difficulties once again.

$100k by 2024 , that should be reasonable price .

But we might touch the lowest line at $10k before it's all happen , can you agree with that as well? A great spike required a hard dump and people getting panic with the current sentiment that the bitcoin price by the end of the year to early new year going down to $10k even below that price target. Keep an eye to this situation , we never know.

It is understandable that bitcoin is cyclical in nature and in the initial stages of Bitcoin this cyclical nature of Bitcoin was studied and followed up strictly such that the users of Bitcoin will know when each cycle will end and when next cycle will start. Peaple were not losing much money because of Bitcoin. But at a time in the history of Bitcoin when many adoption started coming into the systen and institutional traders entered into Bitcoin the cyclical nature of Bitcoin was altered such that some strong fundamentals and manipulations will alter a given circle, thereby giving a false cycle. This largely threw confusion in the Bitcoin industry and cryptocurrency that is why bitcoin investment turned to be as risky as it is now.

I think the chance is only slim because those dates you listed are so far. The economy must recover as soon as possible so that people won't struggle anymore. It's okay if the cryptos recovery is delayed. It wasn't our priority anyway but for those who do then, that was already their problem.

Many times we have been told that investments are only be treated as a kind of sideline or side hustle same with trading especially if that is about crypto because there are less regulations here and the value of cryptos are also highly volatile. Solid investors didn't leave the market and if there is the best time then it must be now when there is still a bear and not when everything is pumping.

someone showing a chart. where they just draw a line.. is not evidence

you have to use real world metrics to have evidence. not a simple MSpaint doodle line

the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month*ⁱ period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet

calculate the 6mon-2year*ⁱ mining cost. where they have 6mon-2year*ⁱ contracts on electric so are mining constantly for that length. meaning averaging out the hashrate chart by that length too to get the average cost of low cost mining.. this also means calculate the hardware costs of current gen EFFICIENT asic needed to perform network hashrate. where you set them at a 2 year run-til-dead lifecycle

then plot out the costs per period and then you will see a 'step up' of a "bottom" that sits below the market.

yep use data outside the market. using stats found in real world data and cost. .. not just a silly mspaint line drawn on a chart

example math
if an asic was $4k for 140exa 3kwh
if network was 220exa year average(earlier in year)
=1,571,428.571 asics
     =$6,285,714,286 2 year hardware life cost
         =$1,571,428,571 6 month* hardware cost

if electric is base $0.04/kw =$0.12/asic per hour
=$188,571.4286 per hour electric
    =$823,680,000 per 6 month*

coins per block=6.25=164062.5 per 6 month*

=$1,571,428,571+$823,680,000 cost
/164062.5 coins = $14,598.76 cost per coin**
...
emphasis and repeating:
"the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet"

no one on planet wants to sell below the lowest REAL COST of real world bills on the planet

the public speculative market then has a price above this line. which is speculative due to peoples higher costs and sentiments of their desires(the premium above the value)

* efficient miners do not play to whims of daily hashrate or price changes. they have contracts of 6 months+ so mine constantly.
**miners look at their contract length cost. and the coins acquired in same time scale then calculate individual coin cost from that
ⁱ you can also do it the micro level of just one asic and its daily burn cost and its daily reward slice of sat amount and multiply it to a btc. which again also comes to a near on $15k efficient mining cost

Yeah, I am also having thoughts like we may not get chances to buy bitcoins lower than $20k levels if we miss the current opportunities also the current prices may not last for long as we know bitcoin market may enter into bullish to sideways movement in the new year after year long bearish mode. So, I agree that we are about to see bullish markets and current market scenarios may become history.

Going by bitcoin cycle is highly recommended way to crack easy profits or to catch possible bottom prices of bitcoin markets. I am not sure how many of us going to make use of current market scenarios but I do keep suggesting this community to buy regularly for not missing out any good dips.

Does the link between the world economic recovery have the right correlation with the recovery of bitcoin, what I know is that the achievement of ATH in 2021 is also the condition of the world economy that is experiencing massive inflation and recession, because at that time we were faced with the COVID-19 disaster.

The process of sustaining the COVID-19 disaster has gradually recovered, the world economy is entering the recovery phase, although not yet fully back to normal. Investors were again shocked by the case that befell FTX, then there was turmoil again in the bear market this time. Most observers have started to reconnect the bitcoin correction process with the case that happened to FTX.

There is some truth to hitting $100k in that year, according to the four-year cycle scheme, or it could be that reaching that number could occur earlier in the year backwards before closer to 2025, as bitcoin's cycle has run in territory close to the next ATH and corresponds with the current scenario.

Yeah and what are the chance that when the world economy recovers coincide with the next bull run around 2024-2025?

Will that be great for us? Yeah obviously the answer will be yes, nation has bounce back, inflation has been defeated, now it's time for the investors to come back again and what a perfect opportunity for them to enter the picture and fuel the next eventual bull run.

I think that will be the perfect (almost) scenario for us to see $100k or more in 2024-2025.

There are forum veterans who says that $100k for btc is not achievable this year. I guess that one is a valid claim right? Because, we are ending the year and prices as well as the economy are still very down. We can also add the negative news in cryptos happening around. This market is composed of different cryptos. If that crypto has no fundamentals then it will not be forever at the top but it will only be on the bottom forever.

For those cryptos which have a fundamental, it's only normal for them to go up and down. That is because people are selling at the top and then buying at the bottom. Just ignore those people who are OA and impatient. We can't get anything but stress if you will debate on them.

You sound like a devotee of Warren Buffet.  I view gold as money which might not really be a commodity, I don't know, maybe it depends who makes the definitions. Buying gold may not be investing. Gold is gold. Buying gold is like saving or protecting your wealth. This would all be good except the banksters long ago figured out how to manipulate the gold market via derivatives. This era may be coming to an end however, (or may not.. but i can dream). It seems the BRICS countries may be keen on moving away from fiat control by the west from things i hear about.  I always viewed bitcoin in a similar way to gold except there were no derivative markets and the banksters didn't yet own the market. I think this is still largely true (there are some bitcoin ETFs and futures markets now). For me physical gold, physical silver and bitcoin (holding your own private keys) are about stating your sovereignty. Taking your wealth outside the system and protecting it. In this era of global monetary 'easing' or printing you may well do better than just protecting wealth.  

I dont consider commodities as investment without any yield there is no deployment of capital in a working business or a return on revenue from that involvement.   Buying commodities is usually speculation and it has a cost to it usually with some decay factor, its an old trade done for centuries as farmers sell their crops ahead of harvest and other ideas to raise cash.    Its a natural thing to trade but I separate speculation from investment, the reason gold is not higher is this lack of yield I think and probably it will adjust for inflation but only over many years maybe a decade.
   BTC is far more liquid but also imo a commodity, global security commodity perhaps but there is no natural yield on that so thas why I come to that conclusion, and it also matches the volatility we see as holding is less favored then other investments.   I only state this so we can better understand the nature of what we trade and these cycles or season to BTC price action.

I'm probably guilty of some of that negativity, but I have to insist it's only for the short term, and only with due respect to cycles -- we're undoubtedly in a downturn. The problem now is no mitigating circumstance. Just industry-specific problems, FTX and others that are obvious, but I feel like there will be more, funds themselves are saying they expect surprises around the corners once liabilities are made known.

So I can't see us turning round the corner just yet.

Not saying there isn't a corner, and light at the end of that.

People who say "unachievable" are pessimists and I doubt they know bitcoin comprehensively or maybe they know nothing about bitcoin at all.
When it comes to the market, we won't see prices be on top forever, nor will we see prices be on the bottom forever. There are times when it goes up and gives profits, there are times when it goes down and gives us the opportunity to add assets to our portfolio.

But the problem is how people overreact to the market, when in fact, if they were a little bit patient they would also see the chart going up again.

I don't like the amount of negativity within the cryptocurrency market. The S&P and NASDAQ seem to have bounced back nicely, while bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are breaking new bottoms. Had it not been for FTX, there probably would have been a bounce as well. Maybe it will happen with a delay when things settle down. As for your chart, it reminds me of May-July 2021 before bitcoin went to new highs.

Thanks for all the comments, I didn't see too much in the way of disagreement that we are around the low of the bitcoin cycle so far. It would be an interesting debate though if there are those who disagree.

On this long timescale I can't rule out another drop in price, I am not saying we have seen the low (although it is possible and maybe even likely)  however I still maintain this will be the region where the bottom is forming in this cycle, even if there is another leg down.  

There comes a point where the weak hands have all capitulated and strong hands more reluctant to sell. The collapse of FTX and all that may have been a way to flush out many of the remaining weak hands. (As I've seen in previous cycles with the FBI seizure of Silk Road) for example,.

Thought I'd share another chart showing some evidence things may start to turn bullish. This is a 1 day chart



Please note i nearly always use Heikin Ashi style candles and price on a log scale, as in this chart here.

What I am drawing attention to is a bullish divergence where even though the price is making lower lows. The RSI Relative Strength indicator is not. This can indicate that the bearish trend reverse is on the horizon.

What do you guys think? are there more bearish things I'm missing? Or bottom is forming here ready for new bull to start?

They can gain that much in short period of time, maybe a day or two, or a week or a month. But that won't depict them as something better than bitcoin. It's a fact that there were better performers than bitcoin in the past but it's really not that long and look where they're right now. All of them are being stomped by bitcoin's dominance and even if the market go side ways, bitcoin is staying and showing them as still the best of them all.

All the drops that we've seen so far and the struggle to go back up have nothing to do with some dumb correlation or even the regular cycles since that was also broken a while ago. It is all about the economy crumbling down all around (most of) us. The bitcoin market with its stupid gamblers are reacting to that very predictable crisis in the economy.

There is no doubt that bitcoin will recover eventually and smash through all resistances very quickly reaching new highs that some people these days are calling "impossible to reach". But the start of it is going to be when the economy has crashed and the ruins are stabilized. Otherwise as long as it is crumbling down I don't see it stabilizing for bitcoin to rise.

It's true that there are other investments that might perform better than bitcoin but they're not that guaranteed to stay for long. I've seen a lot of it and many have debated about how bitcoin underperformed as an investment but look where they are right now. Most of those projects where people have invested and said that they've made better money on it than bitcoin, they're nowhere to be found while bitcoin is staying at its past ATH as the low as of the moment.

I know people influencers and friends of friends that are into stocks but they can't ignore the profitability of having bitcoin. But as you've said, it's less chance but for them it's like they're not betting all in on bitcoin unlike us who have been into this game for years.

That is why we must always be aware of the movement of bitcoin because we will never know where it will move even though we have tried to analyze it. No one can analyze 100% correct about the movement of bitcoin because, besides that, the current price of bitcoin has been influenced by global situations that we may not know. But the people who support bitcoin will not lose faith in bitcoin, and they will instead take the opportunity to buy more bitcoins. We're bound to see bitcoin take another big hit, and those bullish days will come again, so we'll have to be patient for a while.

There are investments who are ahead in terms of profit, I mean they can increase faster but the only problem is that they are only short lived. Investors must be careful on that kind of coins. if they don't know its mechanics or how to play its game, it would be better if they will stay away with it and stick with safer coins instead.

If someone is from stocks then I think there is only a less chance that they will get involved here in btc but if they do then I do not think they will leave stocks but if someone starts with crypto, they will surely stick on here because imo it was easier and more profitable. I know it's only risky a little bit but it can be handled as long as we learn the basics.

I barely even owned any altcoin other than USDT, and it was only a few moments before I found another dip and invested. I only own bitcoin and that's the reason why I invest in crypto. Some altcoin I might also consider, but not at this time because I think maximizing opportunities to buy bitcoin cheaply will be more difficult in the future, and this is it.

When I feel the target or amount of bitcoin I have collected is sufficient for the long term ^{[according my budget]} then maybe I will consider 1-2 of the best altcoin for investment. I understand that some people may be skeptical of altcoin, but I'm not entirely. But now I think it's not the time to think about altcoin because I think this opportunity really should be put to good use.

We have seen the development of bitcoin in two decades. Talking about growth, it is clear that bitcoin has experienced a significant increase from the long process it has gone through, bitcoin is always associated with a four-year cycle, because if it is calculated mathematically it is highly correlated with its journey, this can be proven in market processes that have taken place.

The Bankers tried to block Bitcoin's growth by any means, but it didn't happen and even failed. CDBC continues to be pushed to reduce the rate of Bitcoin, which happens on the contrary, bitcoin grows and develops to date. Many people are starting to realize that bitcoin can be a hedge, a promising investment and that inflation is not having much of an impact on its journey. Bitcoin, gold, and silver are three of the better investment concepts at warding off inflation amidst the ongoing recession, our ancients have proven when fiat currency was not controlled as it is today.

Almost always in recent years currency is losing value.  Inflation is first reflected in an expansion of the monetary base far beyond any natural GDP growth in that country.  If there is more money available then its a given the price to describe goods will rise.   The only things that's saved us recently have been gains from efficiency and technology especially, also most QE programs have been involved with long dated bonds which stores a problem up for later but eventually its completely possible multiple western currencies will collapse to zero value. 
  It should be an exaggeration to say we will see value of common currency reach zero but its quite possible and it would be prudent to treat the risk as real.  I think Japan and the YEN is most near term candidate for collapse but I would also argue the ECB and Euro have problems unfold and could see the end of those systems of worth.  It will bring great upset, deflation is possible which typically raises the value of serviceable money but its not just one but many currencies which can fail imo.

This can't be going on and on without end. We all know how Bitcoin goes bearish and bullish and bearish again and bullish again etc. What we are going through right now can be justified. This bear season is brought about by macroeconomic factors and then shit happened with FTX and several other crypto platforms. Many have probably felt it that there will be more room to fall for Bitcoin and they sold. But this doesn't mean that people are losing trust in Bitcoin. So this is just temporary. There are bullish days ahead.

Very true. Bitcoin also doesn't give any shit on other altcoins. This is also from my experience before. I got big regrets before, holding too many altcoins or swapping my Bitcoins before to altcoins were my biggest regret.
Now, I already learned the lesson.

While anything is possible in the Bitcoin market, one can also draw assumptions from previous patterns and use that to try and predict what could happen in the future. While the ATH has been progressively increasing with each market cycle, from below $1k to as high as $20k and most recently almost at $70k, that's the same way the bottoms we've been experiencing has also been progressively increasing as well, from below $1k to $3k an now above $10k. I would be greatly surprised if the bottom goes below the 10 grand mark.

The more these scenarios occur, the more the market adjusts to it and becomes more resistant.

I would guess that hitting the bottom and then bouncing back up to a great level is an inevitable thing. I think it is a bit "known" that we won't hit 5k, that would be too little and it would be quite difficult to hit. I am guessing that it could potentially be a bit difficult to do when we are talking about how much bitcoin needs to be sold at the market price while going down, and that's not going to be that easy.

I know that it will not be that easy but I know the "possibility" of it at the same time. I agree that there is a technically possible situation going on, but it is not going to be that much of an easy thing to do so I guess 15k or higher is a lot more likely.

It's okay to invest in other investments if the investor knows and understands what with it ahead from those investments. If he's from the stock market and then suddenly reverted his attention to bitcoin and started investing, I doubt it that he'll leave the stock market. But what he'll likely do is to maximize his capacity, resources and knowledge in investing in both areas because he understands pretty well the other one and starts to know more with the other one. However, we're all agreeing here that in summary, bitcoin's the best and is the king of this market and soon most assets will look after it.

I personally believe that everything will go just fine from here on out, I feel like we have seen the worst and that’s it. During a bear market we have seen all we can see, even Luna and FTX alone would have been good enough to just make it crash, and we are above all of that now. Unless there is another big crisis or chaos or bankrupt or scam or hack whatever bad thing is on the way now, I think we are going to just go up and be a lot better.

It seems to me that to say that bitcoin is now at the bottom is just as likely as bitcoin to hit its bottom around 5k. In other words, it has the same 50/50 chance. No one knows how the price will behave or what else might happen in the industry. It seems to me that the chain of events such as LUNA crash or FTX scam is not over yet and we may see something worse, like Michael Saylor crash or something like that.

It's the other way around, actually.

If rando altcoins collapse, they don't affect Bitcoin. Rando altcoins collapse all the time, some huge ones too with mid-size market caps.

Problem with major shtcoin collapses like Terracoin (what you said in your example) or whatever they're called, is that they interacted with Bitcoin... they had a huge Bitcoin reserve which they tried to use to shore up the peg their stablecoin lost. So it was really when that happened that the market felt the tremors.

Fiat is not losing value, the market goods are just having increase with the market price as a consequence of inflation which is a reflection of world market and rach countries' economy. Ofcourse it won't go to zero unless hyperinflation occur to a particular country such as with Zimbabwe. The market value of their currency did not deop to zero that would be impossible, its market value is just low. Also, given how volatile the msrket prices of crypto, it won't be sustainable for the economy to use it as a main coin 'coz there will be no consistency with daily transactions simply because the value of crypto changes from time to time.

All in all, there is always a tendency for the price of Bitcoin to be as low as it can especially if demand will dictate it to do so. Whether it would go up or not, the demand would be the bottomline as it determines the market price of crypto.

Of course, bitcoin doesn't care about those defi and what is the latest hype, but we do somewhat correlated with the altcoin market. And every negative news will have a big impact on us, just like the terra and ftx collapse. Bitcoin doesn't have something to do with it and yet the price falls hard because of this news.

But as agree though, might as well be the mindset of bitcoin maximalist, it is the only good crypto worth to be invested. Specially in a bear market, we should take advantage of it just accumulate sats. That is the easy part, the hard part is not to be shaken when bitcoin is affected by non-bitcoin news.

While I do agree that Bitcoin is likely at it's bottom or very close to it at this point, and the only way to go from here is up, I do not think fiat is at its last fume or that it's going to zero and then Bitcoin would become the global currency. Fiat has been suffering poor fiscal policies fobnany decades now and losing value for same, but with the current financial system, it is needed for the world to function as it does now.

Bitcoin as a alternative asset would not replace the banking sector, but would be an option for those who want to escape the fiat rat race, where money losses value faster than you can earn it. It would also give freedom to those who do not want to be at the mercy of third parties and governments.

Just a heads up if ever you're actually referring to FTX: FTX is not a "DeFi" exchange; it's a typical centralized exchange like the Binances and Coinbases of this very industry.

I think Bitcoin and stocks will bottom (or top) at the same time pretty much. What this cycle has taught us is that Bitcoin is a risk on asset like stocks. Many assumed it would rally when stocks go down but they were incorrect.

Either way. I agree with you. This was a brutal year. People saying capitulation will be the low? However look at what happened this entire year. Pretty sure we hit that point already.

Any thoughts given to how long the low (or close to it) has been held in the past? I think if the low is in, we'll be around it for a while before people gain confidence again - confidence in exchanges is likely depleting too (one of the biggest on ramps for crypto).

Also, based on previous times, it looks like we might be due one more drop before we start to recover well again.

Bitcoin has been a very good opportunities for people like me in a developing country. Before bitcoin was created, it was dollar we were looking to be a hedge against inflation, but no matter what, fiat is fiat, just that one is better than another. When bitcoin was created, more opportunities came as we can now just hold bitcoin. Bitcoin is at its low price now again, if bought at $16500 and some sold in 2 or 3 years from now is a very good investment and a hedge against inflation. It is exciting to buy bitcoin now and hold for long.

Forget stocks, alts, etc.? Never been farther from Bitcoiners' minds... Fact the only time I really think of anything else other than Bitcoin is when I look back with some regret on shitcoins I changed out for BTC... Never in a rally!

Agree fiat credibility keeps making all time lows but when the USD printer is smoking and still the dollar enjoying ATHs against major fiat, gotta accept fiat's death knell probably happening past our lifetimes... Doesn't matter. Bitcoin needs a strong dollar when we get to 100k

I agree with you on the fact that the most suitable investment option right now is bitcoin, this is very important in the sense that Bitcoin is listed as a volatile anti inflationary asset that the laws and policies of third parties do not have any effect on the outcome of its value at whatever point, on like altcoins that are centralized and highly controlled in form of CBDC and other in it category.
Bitcoin's decentralized nature gave it the upper hand against other stocks and Bitcoin is placed in the category of some other stable long-term assets such as Gold and silver as you mentioned in the ops.

I've been waving my hands around in the air, chanting, gazing at tea leaves and looking in a crystal ball AND drawing lines on charts

My prediction, good times ahead for bitcoin bulls

Lets be real. bitcoin is deflationary. Most the coin supply is already distributed. Central bankers and globalists are shamelessly using their control of fiat for all kinds of evil. But at the same time they are ruining the credibility of their bits of paper. And inflating it until its value hits zero. They know they are on their last fumes in the tank.  They will try to push CDBC on us. Don't let this happen. Bitcoin is for the people. Can't be censored. Keep your private keys in your control. HODL

Bitcoins dont give a shit about some DeFI centralised exchange going under. Seen  it all before, many times.

Heres the chart






We are bang on the low. Forget stock market correlation. Forget alt coins. Forget stocks and shares.

Buy bitcoin (and gold and silver)

Hold on tight

edit: My opinions though generally pretty good can be wrong. Your own trades or investments are your own risk.

Update: Thanks for the comments on this thread, they are much appreciated. I think I'll try and keep it alive and monitor the progress of my idea that this is the  cyclical minimum. I'll be looking at the market from a technical perspective based on long term trends.