Topic: Bitcoin difficulty will drop in 8 days. (Read 374 times)

You still have two days to prove that bitcoin isn't going to be alright but I am still careful because whatever happens after that is out of control and we don't know what's going to happen next. I don't think that this ease this week is going to last that long, I feel like there's going to be another bad news really soon but I might be wrong about it.

indeed it is quite wise, the Chinese government prohibits mining of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, it has been considered,
that miners currently do not have much profit from that, statistics say the level of mining difficulty is getting higher,
of course this makes miners change their profession to become a trader.

your guess is right, BTC will rise again after a few weeks the value of BTC falls along with other altcoins. but all of this should not come as a surprise because this has happened before and is happening again today.

I think this is all the time laps that we are not aware of and seem strange to see.

They also cannot buy those video cards because of the worldwide chips shortage.


The difficulty drop is small and for the miners, although it makes mining a tiny bit easier, it decreases the revenue from tx fees. If we talk about small percents, this fits in.
I don't think that it'll make such a difference.


Coins mined easier should mean the miners can sell cheaper.
Also since tx fees will drop, it will also be easier for weak hands to sell.
So the price should fall by your logic.

But I think that it has fallen enough, the rebounding will continue and the small change in difficulty will be basically unnoticeable in the price.

I tend to believe this was just a massive bear trap.

$BTC to 100k and $ETH to 9k still possible for me.

The price is determined by supply and demand. How does the cost of mining affect supply or demand?

Usually when the difficulty drops that means it will be easier to mine and that would mean it will be cheaper to mine and that drops the costs of mining which would mean that the price could go down as well. People love talking about halving where the price of mining one bitcoin goes up a lot and that means the price of bitcoin should go up in order to cover that right? That is what people talked about and they always said that halving will result with higher price because miners will not sell for a loss.

First of all miners did sell for a loss for years back in 2018 and 2019 period that is for sure, secondly we are talking about same thing but on the other side, people have sold for a ton of profit as well. Which means if difficulty drops and the cost of bitcoin mining becomes cheaper for these people, they do not need to drop the price, but they do not need to keep it high neither.

How does making mining more attractive affect the supply or demand?

Lower difficulty means that mining is more profitable. It makes BTC more attractive.
That's the main reason why ETH is so high now, raising price of ETH made it more attractive to mine. Ask to the gamers who cannot buy an RTX video card because of that!
 

Why? How the difficulty affect supply or demand?

My s9 which I purchased last oct for 65 dollars in order to learn about it.  which I knew exactly zero about at the time.   Has paid for itself 20times over.   As it gets free power(i can only get away with 1 unit at the free power location).

No Im not selling it.  

No Im not turning it off.   If the market goes to 4,000 id still not turn it off.  (free power)   I will Let it mine away and maybe collect big time in a few years.

And why not? as I said above, its Paid for itself 20x  Way beyond my original expectation.  

My GPU side of my mild farm is making enough to not only pay for its power but to also purchase used crappy old cards.  2 other frakenrigs and waiting on good deals(HAHHAHA there arnt any good deals).  

Im kinda phlegmatic about the prices of the used crappy cards.  Is it really a loss/bad deal if I'm paying 600 for a card BUT my actual cost is 200 in power?  

 I altered titled as it is due in six days and it is due to be 15%.

15% drop will certainly help mining a bit.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block:   684701  (25 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   84.2944%  (1278 / 1516.11 expected, 238.11 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   20608845737768.16                           
Current Difficulty:   25046487590083.27                           
Next Difficulty:   between 21118059506978 and 21571461275629

Next Difficulty Change:   between -15.6845% and -13.8743%

Previous Retarget:   May 13, 2021 at 4:55 AM  (+21.5327%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 11:08 AM  (in 5d 17h 31m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 7:31 PM  (in 6d 1h 55m 1s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 6h 12m 49s and 16d 14h 36m 10s
[/quote]


The reality is last July mining btc sucked. It was hard to make a profit with an s17pro and 6 cent power.

Now a s9 and 6 cent power makes a profit.

the math is

13th x 20 cents a day.       = 2.60
24 kwatts a day at 6 cents = 1.44

so 1 s9 makes                     1.16 a day

next week 15% shift bumps the cents per th to 23 cents or 2.99 a day and 1.44 = 1.55 profit with a shitty s9

Last summer I purchased a s17 pro used for 850 usd I was offered 5000 for it.  that is too good.

my s17 does 1850 watts or 45 kwatts a day  at 6 cents power that is 2.70 in power
it earns 11.00 a day

so 11.70-2.70 = 8.30 a day.


last summer it made

6 and cost 2.7 = 3.30 a day

so

the s9 is still okay at 6 cents

the s17 is good at 6 cents.

they will improve when the diff drops in six days.

We are no where near last July's numbers.

Didn't China previously banned mining as well, but this year bitcoin is back on the high and falling again. Is this from a speculation about China all over there?
I have a hard time determining who is the most right behind all of it, but indeed China is the biggest miner so it is impossible to link it one day when crypto is booming or do they want to destroy it?
This is just speculation and we will see Bitcoin bounce back.
For 8 days we see the market has become gloomy.

I don't think the market will rise above the current standing all time high, the price is free- falling, unlike you prediction, most prediction coming in has been dooms day emphasising.
The Chinese ban, may open opportunity for other global Minners, I understand that China has the vast population of miners, but if decentralization should hold water, then bitcoin should break out of Chinese embargo/control

If the drop in difficulty were to have a consequence it would already be priced in by now more or less. It will not have any severe impact given at what levels we are now at. The Chinese mining ban would just lead to a shift in hash power from China to another country. Even if it drops Bitcoin is secure enough to survive any kind of attack. It's just a question of mining profitability in other countries where energy is more expensive.

Take a look around the world news first. They have discussed this issue heatedly for many days

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3134473/china-escalates-crackdown-bitcoin-mining-trading

https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-says-it-will-crack-down-bitcoin-mining-trading-activities-2021-05-21/

Not official news yet but FUDs only make bitcoin worse. Well, they are the government. You can't tell them what to do. And of course you have to obey them, especially the Chinese gov. They are awful, honestly. I guess they will have few days to prepare for selling mining rigs before the ban fully effect

It is not hard to know factors that can make price rise or drop, it is certain that fud can be one factor. Like Op state below that China ban on mining


I don't know if that is true or not but I'm yet to get such information. So such news can immediately throw the market off from its balance either causing a huge drop or rise.

And the title again is capable to change market direct. It all means that news is highly a factor to the direction of price. Also huge sells can cause panic and make for more hodlers to start dumping because of fear and uncertainty.

It is very difficult to ascertain what will actually happen and what factors actually cause prices to go up and also down. of us only speculate based on information and modified by those on behalf of large holders of Bitcoin.


The last 8 days are still a reason why we are careful to make a statement.

+ relating a drop difficulty to China make the point less valid. Mining activity has been threatened by Chinese government for infinite time and they didn't do anything so far.
News reporters should really write some critics and analyse what they report..

so it's just an negative issue about bitcoin? indeed this is way too far down from the all time higher but compared to last year it's certainly not bad, hard to guess how it goes

When did China ban mining? I think that is wrong, China did not ban mining, or can you provide us the source you read it?

If China ban bitcoin mining, the price of bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies will reduce but bitcoin will always survive. China can not even ban mining, it is not possible to ban what is feeding thousands or millions of people. It will have negative effect on some industry in China like the mining hardware manufacturing companies and few others.

Maybe before 8 days price already recover whether difficult drop or not, since this space is highly unpredictable and can take us by surprise it is very likely things will turn around before then, most price pump don't usually have a significant reason, just suddenly the price will reverse and left people wondering what happened.

The estimated 3% drop isn't even consequential. Furthermore, drops in difficulty aren't even uncommon. You can see from the history that the difficulty has dropped in 4 out of the last 12 cycles.  You shouldn't expect it to be a factor in the price.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

With the current situation, the Chinese ban on mining, and the fact that the difficulty raised last time, it is fair to draw that the difficulty will drop.
What will be the consequence for the BTC value?

My guess is that it will raise, because of that. The market should take this in account in advance.


https://btc.com/stats/diff