Topic: Bitcoin ETF (Read 360 times)

True, and maybe if we can add though, speculators are not a long term holder, at least that's what I understand them because they will take any chance to sell just to make profits. And maybe those who are ETF buyers are not technically incline, doesn't knows the difference between online wallet or what is Electrum vs Trezor and Ledger. So they will have their own definition of long term or speculators. But for us, as you have describe, $500 and that's it, good start and then we learn the intricacies of Bitcoin and security and privacy and think that it's not that complicated at all.
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It's something I say many times. People mistake speculator for investor. Speculators simply aren't interested in long term benefits, they only want to make money. So ETF suits speculators. And they didn't need to wait for ETFs. Futures and derivatives are way more than enough, even cheaper and possible with leverage. ETF worked for gold because there wasn't really much you could access but Bitcoin derivatives loads existed before ETFs.

So forget the $500 guys like us waiting excitedly for ETFs it never happens

Over the counter trading will be not enough for all Bitcoin Spot ETFs. They are doing this in their first month of buying bitcoin but they will not have enough bitcoin over the counter market to do it in future. We see after 2 weeks of operations, those Bitcoin Spot ETFs already bought big bitcoin amount that is nearly same as MicroStrategy has done since 2020.

Their capital size and purchasing power should not be under estimated because in fact they are big enough to absorb not only new generated bitcoins but all available bitcoins on Over The Counter market.

They prioritize convenience and accept risk of don't store bitcoins by themselves. They rely on two entities, Bitcoin Spot ETF and their partner to store their bitcoins. Most of Bitcoin Spot ETF choose Coinbase as a custodial entity.

In this bull market cycle, it will be affected and centralized in Bitcoin Spot ETFs and Coinbase. Let's hope Coinbase will not get bad operations like FTX because if they get such bad operation, Bitcoin market will be dumped very hard when news is brought to the light.

True, and maybe if we can add though, speculators are not a long term holder, at least that's what I understand them because they will take any chance to sell just to make profits. And maybe those who are ETF buyers are not technically incline, doesn't knows the difference between online wallet or what is Electrum vs Trezor and Ledger. So they will have their own definition of long term or speculators. But for us, as you have describe, $500 and that's it, good start and then we learn the intricacies of Bitcoin and security and privacy and think that it's not that complicated at all.

It's mostly over the counter and that's what they do. And with these, I don't think that we're going to see some overnight gains because of them. So it's a month already or close to it since we've seen them approved. We see some moves of it before the approval and then became stagnant after the approval. With that having said, we still need for some push but let it stay there and don't be worried about the ETF because they're one of the major contributors on the next cycle for this bull run which likely going to start this year and will last next year.

I don't think so that the gaps over the weekend will become a trading opportunity. Because the ETF companies are smart enough to understand that Bitcoin market is available and operating 24/7. So they can understand that there will be price differences during the weekend closing and Monday morning. They can very well choose to block any purchase or sell request occurred during weekend.

That person can use free open source non custodial wallet like Bitcoin Core, Electrum. If wanting more security, use those wallets with multisig wallet.

If don't have big capital and enough money to buy a hardware wallet, don't try to buy second-hand (used) hardware wallet, it is terrible practice because potential backdoors that will steal bitcoin.

[GUIDE] How to Safely Download and Verify Electrum.
Creating a multisig wallet.
Creating a cold storage wallet.

Speculators aren't complicated. They want to buy low and sell high (or the other way around). If they can do that without actually getting involved in all the complications of buying the asset like sourcing it and storing it and paying for security, they would.

Hence futures, hence ETF.

A guy with only 500 to invest won't start with a hardware wallet. Just a simple digital wallet, careful security, even paper wallet is better. Cheaper.

Guy with $500 doesn't want to lose 1% fees annual to ETF and KYC etc.

I know cause I had $500 and I bought BTC, not a future or ETF lol.

While I agree to some degree with you, I have to say that bitcoin is way more complicated than people think. Yes if you want to invest a large quantity in bitcoin you can afford to buy a hardware wallet and read into it a lot. But if you just want to invest up to 500 USD it is probably not really worth your time to not just buy the ETF.

There's always a good explanation for everything in trading but you sorta hit it on the head saying "many people missed in the first place".

No, MOST (if not all) people missed, cause nobody said anything about it. Everyone said "ETF" boom. Period. I was saying all along ETF not gonna do anything, old news, and people overestimating impact. It was not popular.

It's so stupid to see people are selling Grayscale to buy ETF because cheaper fees lol. Buy Bitcoin. Actual Bitcoin. No storage fee.

ETF buyers aren't holders they're speculators.

Well there is a very good explanation for that, that many people missed in the first place. The Greyscale Bitcoins are very expensive if you consider yearly cost of storage. SO people are now selling these to get in a cheaper Bitcoin ETF. This means people are now selling a lot of bitcoins which leads to sinking prices. They will hold their cash as long as they see that the price will go down.
If however we see an uptrend they will jump in and this will most likely result in a big spike.

No, it's not just a mere hype but it had a purpose and it can be permanent. But, is the price you mean the increase? Well, majority of us are not blind to not see it, but maybe they are only expecting something more than that. They can't believe that after the approval, the price hardly had an increase and what is more surprising is that the price had only dumped.

I guess this is due to the frustration of the public. They started dumping their coins already. You are right mate about that BAKKT thing. If you didn't mentioned it here, I won't remember it. I still believe that ETF is better than it and people won't forget it easily, if in case it also fades away.

In theory, one should distinguish between futures BTC ETFs that have existed for some time, and what is now approved, which is a physical spot ETF. The biggest difference is that futures BTC ETFs do not have actual BTC in their base, while spot ETF funds have to buy BTC in order to be able to sell shares in the fund based on that.

The majority understood that these funds will start buying BTC in order to start doing business and that consequently they will remove a certain amount of BTC from the market, which will increase the price of BTC according to the law of supply and demand. Of course, the unknown has always been how much interest investors will have in such a way of investing, but also the fact that companies like Grayscale were converted into BTC ETFs, and that they had a huge amount of BTC in their possession.

It is possible that other companies also bought before the approval, and when we take into account that all of them probably used OTC and custodial solutions, there was actually no real pressure on the market (so far). The majority of those who invested because of the possible effect of ETFs on the price decided to take profits when they saw that no pump would happen, and now we are where we are - the next big thing (in a positive sense) is the halving.

Bitcoin ETF is claimed to be able to attract the interest of older investors who have more confidence in trusted financial managers and don't want the hassle of buying and storing Bitcoin in crypto exchanges and personal wallets, but the question that crosses my mind is doesn't this Bitcoin ETF actually create Bitcoin supply doubles? cmiiw

The first appearance of the bitcoin ETF did make the price of bitcoin rise several percent, but from what i noticed, many traders tried to take profit from that flash bullishness.  Honestly, i'm still skeptical about Bitcoin ETFs, even though many say this is a good breakthrough for mass adoption, i'm not so sure, maybe i still have to study more deeply about the potential of this Bitcoin ETF.

I do agree with this, they can't do it otherwise so it is not going to really be approved unless they can provide proof that it could be done, they need to make sure that they can do what they are saying they can do and SEC needs to see that it can be done and proven with factual data. This is why it is taking so long, it is not like some guaranteed thing, it takes time to prove that possibility and that is why it is taking time.

Eventually, maybe soon or maybe in many years, it doesn't matter when, but eventually it will get approved, and when it does, we can be certain that those companies have a lot of bitcoins without a doubt, which would help the market even more because they would be buying a lot from us and holding it and not selling it.

People need to calm down and stop expecting that the effect of the ETF is going to be asap and on an instant, no. Like what they're saying whenever we're in doubt, we need to zoom out.

We get to see and compare these ETFs with what it has done to gold and that's why we need to look at that picture for the longer effect of it.

Right now, we don't see some movements right? It doesn't mean that the market hasn't reacted, it did actually even before the results came out, remembeR?

Now people are coming up with all theories of why the crash happened. I mean, liquidations? And then news like Vanguard deciding not to offer ETF? Come on.

ETFs were supposed to according to everyone bring in longterm investors. But now we see speculators selling off and even small fish like Vanguard denying ETF is to blame?

I always said ETFs were hype. Bitcoin will rise longterm because of utility, not speculation.

I read in some posts on the forum that BlackRock bought a certain amount of BTC in the months before the approval, and that all the funds had the right to do so, but I have not seen the exact amounts and who bought how much. What is known is that Grayscale has practically been converted into an ETF, and that it has (so they claim) more than 600 000 BTC in its possession. Given that they have been buying BTC for years, they are probably in the best position compared to other companies.

This is what caused the dump in price.
Once one rejects the ETF then others question their decision.

It seems unlikely since there were so many that got approved I counted 11 at one point but probably more since now the floodgates have opened for all this institutional money to be applied to the bitcoin revolution on the global financial system.

The thing is this anticipation of getting will definitely have an impact as we known they some people who will trust bitcoin more now with it been in the hands of an institution but do we really think that this buys or say demands will outweigh the selling price,  not for now at least maybe in a long run. As for the institutions although I don’t buy the ETF idea they wouldn’t themselves just jump in and buy all the bitcoins they want no, they will definitely have to wait and study around look for more people coming to get the spot and probably wait for a retracement and then buy. This people are not in for a quick 2x they have their Plans mostly for a longer term and then they execute it. One thing I usually say is bitcoin is different from pump and dump coins just go in for a long term and That’s when you will probably be in profits. Short term investors are always the ones panicking.

    -     This is what you said, right? That's why they were approved to give them permission to buy bitcoin and hold it according to the allocation they want to allocate for it. Others thought that when there was approval, the price of Bitcoin would automatically kick in.

Apparently, their excitement was immediately preceded by the SEC's approval of the spot ETF, so when the current approval came, it didn't have much of an impact; they had already exhausted their excitement. But it will take a few months before we feel the impact of the SEC approval on them.

Mate, what they say is actually true

In a Spot, Bitcoin ETF invests directly into Bitcoins, meaning they must have bought bitcoins at one point before they filed and got approved by SEC. Do you think SEC would go that low into approving an ETF the Government still hates, minus following the actual rules to the book? I don't think so.

Maybe you are confusing Spot ETFs with derivative based ETFs or futures contracts.

But look how far the Bitcoin price has come, don't you think part of it is the effect of these companies buying Bitcoins?

The first spot Bitcoin ETF was applied for a long time ago

What happens when an exchange "runs" out of Bitcoins to sell?  
Price spikes!
There is always someone willing to sell at a higher price. That's how the market works. Exchanges don't run out of assets to sell, it's a game between the buyers and sellers. It's all about demand and supply.

Lol at everyone who said ETF was gonna push BTC to the moon. Yes it will at leat in the short term they said.

What's funny is the fake news pushed it much higher than the actual real news. So you know the hackers are totally the same people manipulating price at exchange.

What's funnier is despite $4B volume on Day 1 trading, price is going all the way to 42k. ETF is for gamblers, not Bitcoin users.

I don`t think that this is true! There is not a single proof that any ETF provider bought bitcoins before the ETF was launched.

If the would buy bitcoins before the ETF is launched they will essentially go long on bitcoin. This would mean that they are exposed to a very large risk.
Also what happens when they run out of bitcoins:
Will they buy again a very large sum until they run out?
Will they then buy everyday?

Also what nobody talks about is a bear market. Will they again store the bitcoin and not sell them into the market?

Those companies that were approved to launch their Bitcoin Spot ETFs have to use money to buy bitcoin. Their Bitcoin Spot ETF shares will be launched with bitcoin as an asset to back those shares. They can not launch shares without buying bitcoins.

This will increase demand on Bitcoin because Bitcoin Spot ETFs will give institutional investors which don't want to store bitcoin self custodial to buy Bitcoin Spot ETF shares and cause big new capital to Bitcoin market.

Effects will need time to be seen and it's hard to see great effects after one or just a few days. Like QEs, inflation, we only can see effects after a few months or years.

More huge trade volumes reported today. I think North of $7Billion since the trading of ETFs started but no upward price movement for Bitcoin, instead we are just seen a downtrend which.

The ETFs are trading on exchanges like Nasdaq, NYSE Arca... Please bear in mind that what is being trade are not actual Bitcoins.

The excitement was mostly about "adoption" where people thought now that these companies reorganize Bitcoin, it would mean that more investors would get more exposure to Bitcoin.

It looks like Bitcoin ETF was just another hype on the hype-train and it was priced in way way earlier but people didn't notice it. They expected a bull run to $100k... which hasn't happened yet... a bull run to $100k may still happen but it probably won't be triggered by the ETF. The next halving is a better bet now. Remember BAKKT was yuuge too but once it happened, nothing has happened. Nowadays nobody even remembers wtf BAKKT was. Seriously wtf was it about again?

Bitcoin ETF is just like tradinh fake Bitcoin. This does not have any effect on the market and that is what many people that had been agitating on the approval of the Bitcoin ETF do not know. These people are not even interested in sending the price of Bitcoin to the moon because they are not literally trading the real Bitcoin. This is just a reflection and not real to the market.
I know many investors would soon know this and understand the concept of Bitcoin ETF in the market.

But it doesn't seem like that's what I saw in that regard, especially with the approved companies in the bitcoin spot. Is it like they haven't prepared how much allocation they will allocate for their purchase of bitcoin?

It's just that they don't seem to be buying Bitcoin all at once to hold it. Although the other institutional investors are already buying and selling Bitcoin using the stocks they are used to,.

I have read a lot about the ETF and how it works. Some people claim that it is not allowed for an ETF to simply sell already existing stocks/bitcoins. In general this also seems also like a pretty bad idea, since the ETF profit for the bank is pretty slim. They only get a small management fee and maybe the spreads. If they hold large quantities of bitcoin that profit would be gone in seconds if bitcoin moves in the wrong direction. So I dont see why the would go trough the hassle of creating a Bitcoin ETF if the profit would come form a Bitcoin investment.
Are there any sources that proof that the institutional investors really already hold relevant amounts of bitcoins?

The institutions behind the ETFs already had to have a certain amount of BTC before approval, so the purchases of BTC happened some time ago and were therefore already priced in. This is also one of the reasons why the +20% predicted by some crypto influencers did not materialize.

Further purchases will also not take place via traditional exchanges such as Binance and co. but OTC, which is what Binance and co. offer for institutional clients.

They are buying the token that tracks the bitcoin price and not bitcoin itself, although the token provider bought bitcoin and pegged the token to bitcoin spot price. All those companies that provide the ETF have bought bitcoin in the past and bitcoin price increased at the time. But bitcoin ETF token itself has no effect on bitcoin price unless those bitcoin spot ETF provider buy more bitcoin for storage and this would be if more people are buying the ETF token. Only what we are expecting now is halving sentimental effect.

From my understanding and from what I have seen on the ETF commercials, you should be able to buy them and sell them on the popular stock exchange apps. I did read however that Vanguard[1] and another company decided to block these transactions.

[1] https://blockworks.co/news/vanguard-disallows-bitcoin-etf-trading

Yesterday several Bitcoin ETF launched in the US and had a trading volume of 4.6 billion USD. I think we can all see that this is market changing volume since people that traded the Bitcoin ETF are probably not yet invested in Bitcoin. Interestingly the huge volume was not represented on popular bitcoin exchanges, which made me wonder where the bitcoins are actually being both/sold. Does somebody has information about that topic?
Do you think that overnight/weekend gaps from the ETF are potential trading opportunities? In my mind there should be huge gaps, if for example the bitcoin price changes a lot over the weekend.