Bitcoin ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021? | Bitcointalksearch.org

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 18, 2020, 08:41:17 PM

I also disagree that the ETF hype is dead. It will come back again, all of you wait.

It appears everyone also thought I was an antagonizer when I was speculating bullishly on an ETF for bitcoin last year hehehe. I might have made a mistake on the timeline, however, the ETF hype might has clearly returned, very much not similar to much of everyone’s sentiment when the thread was created.

Similar to the bull markets before this, bitcoin bear market begins on December or January. The schedules of ETF approval go up to December 2021. I assume the ETF hype will go up to those dates also.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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News update.

Prediction wrong and with only 13 days more before the 2nd quarter ends. It also appears that the anticipation for the SEC’s decision might be the cause of the latest pump and the disappointing news the cause of this latest dump. An approval would have sent bitcoin back on the way to all time high, I reckon.

In a Wednesday filing, the regulator once again delayed passing judgement on the VanEck Bitcoin Trust.

“In rejecting numerous bitcoin ETF applications, the SEC has continually stated concerns over fraud and manipulation in the underlying bitcoin spot market,” Nathan Geraci, president of the ETF Store, told CoinDesk in a recent interview. “The SEC is worried they don’t have proper surveillance over crypto exchanges and, therefore, can’t ensure adequate investor protections are in place.”

Source https://www.coindesk.com/sec-again-delays-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-decision

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Canada approved another ETF and Brazil approved their first. We are in the 2nd quarter, however, it remains we do not have an ETF approved by the US SEC. I reckon with bitcoin’s pumps being weaker, the holders might begin to become more desperate for an ETF approval. The market needs more institional buyers to push the price to $100k.

Canadian digital asset manager 3iQ Corp announced Thursday it has inked an agreement with investment firm CoinShares to launch a new bitcoin (BTC, +0.47%) exchange-traded fund (ETF).

In an announcement, 3iQ Corp said CoinShares has partnered with the firm to launch the 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF. Trading under the ticker BTCQ, the vehicle for investing in bitcoin without holding the digital asset itself will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) in early April, pending regulatory approval.

Canada has taken the lead in North America in approving three bitcoin ETFs for crypto-curious investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been reticent to give the green light to a similar vehicle in the U.S., having shot down dozens of proposals in recent years. Last month, Brazil got into the act with the approval of its first bitcoin ETF.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/coinshares-partners-with-canadas-3iq-to-launch-new-bitcoin-etf-on-tsx

bbc.reporter

legendary

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The first North American Bitcoin ETF has been approved! However, it has been approved by and will be issued in Canada hehehe. This might prompt the United States regulators to begin approving ETFs in their jurisdiction also, I reckon.

I might be pessimistic about Apple investing in bitcoin, however, I speculate that Apple might invest in a bitcoin ETF.

The first publicly traded bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in North America has been given the go-ahead by Canada’s financial regulator.

According to a decision document on Thursday, the receipt of approval from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) was filed under a Multilateral Instrument passport system in multiple Canadian jurisdictions.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/first-north-american-bitcoin-etf-approved-by-canadian-securities-regulator

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on January 03, 2021, 09:15:39 AM

Everyone around here seems insanely pessimistic about an ETF approval. Makes me think one might finally get approved this time.

It's not 2017 anymore. Exchanges and derivative platforms have significantly tightened up compliance wise, fake volume is not nearly as rampant, regulators are constantly taking action, CME and Bakkt are steadily growing in volume and liquidity. This is exactly what Jay Clayton said needed to happen before an ETF could be approved.

Not to mention that Microstrategy, in terms of assets held, is turning itself into a de facto Bitcoin ETF. I suspect the SEC is feeling trolled by that and I wonder if it might make them more inclined to bring a real ETF to market.

Agreed. Also, Microstrategy’s direct exposure to bitcoin clearly is making it to the price of the company’s stock. The stock has pumped from $135 from August to $388.55 to end the year.

I speculate that other smaller companies might copy the same tactic to bolster their stock price also.

darewaller

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I have no reason to believe that the SEC will approve this proposal after rejecting it repeatedly in the past. Even if by some miracle they approve it, I don't think that it will be ready by the 2nd quarter of 2021. Because the entire reviewal process by the SEC takes around 8 months to get completed. And the point now is that VanEck hasn't made a formal application yet.

SEC doesn't want people to do things they are not aware of or not allowed and thats the key here. Crypto people got very scared after the XRP thing but the reality is that we are not really living any worse than we did before that, look at bitcoin for example its almost 35k, so its obvious that one thing doesn't reflect on the other things.

If any ETF happens, it is going to be in a way where SEC allows, and they will list bunch of requests, and if the company that does the ETF accepts the requests from SEC, there is no reason why there shouldn't be one. I mean there are exchanges that has been active for nearly half a decade in USA and nothing happened to them, why? Because they do whatever SEC asks them to do, simple as that. However if you make up an ETF in your mind and show that to SEC and say you want to start that, obviously its going to get shot down very easily.

exstasie

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Everyone around here seems insanely pessimistic about an ETF approval. Makes me think one might finally get approved this time.

It's not 2017 anymore. Exchanges and derivative platforms have significantly tightened up compliance wise, fake volume is not nearly as rampant, regulators are constantly taking action, CME and Bakkt are steadily growing in volume and liquidity. This is exactly what Jay Clayton said needed to happen before an ETF could be approved.

Not to mention that Microstrategy, in terms of assets held, is turning itself into a de facto Bitcoin ETF. I suspect the SEC is feeling trolled by that and I wonder if it might make them more inclined to bring a real ETF to market.

jubalix

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I don't buy it the ETF has been promised for years it always gets promised and never happens

Lucius

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Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat⚔️

Quote from: ultrloa on December 31, 2020, 11:02:02 PM

Oh common this is another fud spread which can create panic to the people if ETF approval will get failed again...

I don't see the point in this kind of news being understood in any way as FUD (Fear, uncertainty, and doubt) because it is a legitimate request from a legitimate company to the SEC. If the SEC accepts the request, the market would get another very powerful instrument for large investors, and if that does not happen, there will be no panic - the price that is currently formed does not depend on the outcome of this request.

I think the Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, the only question is when the SEC will decide on it - and given the growing interest for BTC in the US, it may happen in the next 2 years.

ultrloa

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Oh common this is another fud spread which can create panic to the people if ETF approval will get failed again and I'm so sick to read about this and doesn't have hope about this for now so maybe people should be prepared and need to know about how the manipulator used this as an issue for the price to get dump, so hopefully we will not see any downwards when it get rejected again.

magneto

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I'm still a bit skeptical as to how much of a boost an ETF approval can realistically give to bitcoin demand.

Sure, it will give mainstream investors another opportunity at investing in BTC. But I feel like that there are already a bunch of services that make the buying process very simple for retail investors, and institutional investors would probably want to retain custody over their own holdings anyway.

But yeah, if ETFs were to be approved at all, it would likely be in the next few years whilst the SEC is chaired by a pro-bitcoiner.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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@ Globb0. I might be wrong on the timeline, however, I am quite certain there will be more than 2 Bitcoin ETF to be offered for mainstream investors who want some exposure on bitcoin.

In any case, this news hehe.

As 2020 draws to a close, one of the prior proponents for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin is trying again: VanEck has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a “VanEck Bitcoin Trust.”

An ETF is seen as advantageous because it trades on the stock market in much the same way as shares in popular companies such as Apple and Microsoft.

VanEck has previously proposed ETFs, withdrawing its most recent application in September 2019. At the time the company said it remained committed to an exchange-traded product.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/vaneck-proposes-bitcoin-etf-again

Globb0

legendary

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Free spirit

We will see if you are right,

I have lost confidence with every fail and rejection.

There is always promising noises then a pull back at the last second.

Just like all the other market manipulation.

aesma

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fly or die

Bitcoin is volatile no doubt, so I don't even see how you can use 100X leverage really, unless you're only doing minutes long trades, but then yes it's really a bet, not a trading strategy.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 10, 2020, 12:16:48 AM

Quote from: exstasie on December 08, 2020, 07:05:28 AM

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

Stability depends on what type of market something is on, I reckon. In a market where exchanges give everyone 100x leverage it will be very volatile. In a more regulated market where people are there more to invest than to gamble, it might have lower volatility.

Only unregulated casinos like Bitmex offer 100x leverage, and even then, Bitmex traders only use ~8x leverage on average: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitmex-rejects-bold-lawsuit-claims-as-clearly-rehashed-internet-bunk

Real spot exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase Pro cap leverage at 5x tops. CME Group's Bitcoin futures limit leverage to 2-3x, not to mention they employ circuit breakers and things like that to reduce volatility. As volume moves out of the unregulated market and into regulated markets, I expect volatility to dampen if anything.

aesma

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I don't know if many people here use ETFs, personally I don't but I've seen then mentioned regularly on business channels, there are even specialized segments (Bloomberg ETF IQ, you can watch on youtube). To me they're a way to invest in a class of assets, in the case of commodities, or in a panel of stocks centered around a sector (or an indice). Gold ETFs are often mentioned, with them you're usually not buying just gold, or sometimes you're not buying gold at all, but for example mining companies stocks.

I didn't even know there were "single-asset ETFs", but apparently they do exist.

So, when talking about bitcoin ETFs, are we talking about an ETF that would just buy BTC, or rather an ETF that would be in mining companies, exchanges, things like that ? Or maybe a crypto ETF, invested in several coins ?

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on December 08, 2020, 07:05:28 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 07, 2020, 11:40:14 PM

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.

However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

Quote from: adaseb on December 08, 2020, 12:12:07 AM

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation.

Not surprising at all given the lack of BTC exposed instruments in the equity market and the scale of their investment. I speculated this would happen when they made their initial investment.

Stability depends on what type of market something is on, I reckon. In a market where exchanges give everyone 100x leverage it will be very volatile. In a more regulated market where people are there more to invest than to gamble, it might have lower volatility.

thecodebear

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After years of speculations on when an ETF will happen, I don't think there is a reason to keep speculating. It'll happen eventually, and it'll happen when it happens. Could be next year, could be 3 years from now, could be 10 years from now. It isn't crucial to Bitcoin's mainstream adoption success, but will certainly help out. When it happens it'll be good, could still be years from now, until then Bitcoin is getting just fine without it.

darewaller

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Basically governments will try to stall this as much as they can but as we all know, it is impossible to make it stay like this forever. Eventually there will be a million ETF in the market that people could use and trade and invest into. When the market wants something, they will get it one way or another, same as crypto where if it was illegal to own any crypto, the price would be lower, but people would still own crypto illegally, just because something is illegal doesn't make it stop.

If the market wants ETF and governments do not provide it soon enough, it will definitely be in an illegal market covering that type of request from people. Which is why I think there will be ETF very soon, and they will get more in numbers from now on as well.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 07, 2020, 11:40:14 PM

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.

However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

Quote from: adaseb on December 08, 2020, 12:12:07 AM

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation.

Not surprising at all given the lack of BTC exposed instruments in the equity market and the scale of their investment. I speculated this would happen when they made their initial investment.

Topic: Bitcoin ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021? (Read 1079 times)