Bitcoin ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021? | Bitcointalksearch.org

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 18, 2020, 07:41:17 PM

I also disagree that the ETF hype is dead. It will come back again, all of you wait.

It appears everyone also thought I was an antagonizer when I was speculating bullishly on an ETF for bitcoin last year hehehe. I might have made a mistake on the timeline, however, the ETF hype might has clearly returned, very much not similar to much of everyone’s sentiment when the thread was created.

Similar to the bull markets before this, bitcoin bear market begins on December or January. The schedules of ETF approval go up to December 2021. I assume the ETF hype will go up to those dates also.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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News update.

Prediction wrong and with only 13 days more before the 2nd quarter ends. It also appears that the anticipation for the SEC’s decision might be the cause of the latest pump and the disappointing news the cause of this latest dump. An approval would have sent bitcoin back on the way to all time high, I reckon.

In a Wednesday filing, the regulator once again delayed passing judgement on the VanEck Bitcoin Trust.

“In rejecting numerous bitcoin ETF applications, the SEC has continually stated concerns over fraud and manipulation in the underlying bitcoin spot market,” Nathan Geraci, president of the ETF Store, told CoinDesk in a recent interview. “The SEC is worried they don’t have proper surveillance over crypto exchanges and, therefore, can’t ensure adequate investor protections are in place.”

Source https://www.coindesk.com/sec-again-delays-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-decision

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Canada approved another ETF and Brazil approved their first. We are in the 2nd quarter, however, it remains we do not have an ETF approved by the US SEC. I reckon with bitcoin’s pumps being weaker, the holders might begin to become more desperate for an ETF approval. The market needs more institional buyers to push the price to $100k.

Canadian digital asset manager 3iQ Corp announced Thursday it has inked an agreement with investment firm CoinShares to launch a new bitcoin (BTC, +0.47%) exchange-traded fund (ETF).

In an announcement, 3iQ Corp said CoinShares has partnered with the firm to launch the 3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF. Trading under the ticker BTCQ, the vehicle for investing in bitcoin without holding the digital asset itself will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) in early April, pending regulatory approval.

Canada has taken the lead in North America in approving three bitcoin ETFs for crypto-curious investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission has been reticent to give the green light to a similar vehicle in the U.S., having shot down dozens of proposals in recent years. Last month, Brazil got into the act with the approval of its first bitcoin ETF.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/coinshares-partners-with-canadas-3iq-to-launch-new-bitcoin-etf-on-tsx

bbc.reporter

legendary

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The first North American Bitcoin ETF has been approved! However, it has been approved by and will be issued in Canada hehehe. This might prompt the United States regulators to begin approving ETFs in their jurisdiction also, I reckon.

I might be pessimistic about Apple investing in bitcoin, however, I speculate that Apple might invest in a bitcoin ETF.

The first publicly traded bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in North America has been given the go-ahead by Canada’s financial regulator.

According to a decision document on Thursday, the receipt of approval from the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) was filed under a Multilateral Instrument passport system in multiple Canadian jurisdictions.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/first-north-american-bitcoin-etf-approved-by-canadian-securities-regulator

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Quote from: exstasie on January 03, 2021, 08:15:39 AM

Everyone around here seems insanely pessimistic about an ETF approval. Makes me think one might finally get approved this time.

It's not 2017 anymore. Exchanges and derivative platforms have significantly tightened up compliance wise, fake volume is not nearly as rampant, regulators are constantly taking action, CME and Bakkt are steadily growing in volume and liquidity. This is exactly what Jay Clayton said needed to happen before an ETF could be approved.

Not to mention that Microstrategy, in terms of assets held, is turning itself into a de facto Bitcoin ETF. I suspect the SEC is feeling trolled by that and I wonder if it might make them more inclined to bring a real ETF to market.

Agreed. Also, Microstrategy’s direct exposure to bitcoin clearly is making it to the price of the company’s stock. The stock has pumped from $135 from August to $388.55 to end the year.

I speculate that other smaller companies might copy the same tactic to bolster their stock price also.

darewaller

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I have no reason to believe that the SEC will approve this proposal after rejecting it repeatedly in the past. Even if by some miracle they approve it, I don't think that it will be ready by the 2nd quarter of 2021. Because the entire reviewal process by the SEC takes around 8 months to get completed. And the point now is that VanEck hasn't made a formal application yet.

SEC doesn't want people to do things they are not aware of or not allowed and thats the key here. Crypto people got very scared after the XRP thing but the reality is that we are not really living any worse than we did before that, look at bitcoin for example its almost 35k, so its obvious that one thing doesn't reflect on the other things.

If any ETF happens, it is going to be in a way where SEC allows, and they will list bunch of requests, and if the company that does the ETF accepts the requests from SEC, there is no reason why there shouldn't be one. I mean there are exchanges that has been active for nearly half a decade in USA and nothing happened to them, why? Because they do whatever SEC asks them to do, simple as that. However if you make up an ETF in your mind and show that to SEC and say you want to start that, obviously its going to get shot down very easily.

exstasie

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Everyone around here seems insanely pessimistic about an ETF approval. Makes me think one might finally get approved this time.

It's not 2017 anymore. Exchanges and derivative platforms have significantly tightened up compliance wise, fake volume is not nearly as rampant, regulators are constantly taking action, CME and Bakkt are steadily growing in volume and liquidity. This is exactly what Jay Clayton said needed to happen before an ETF could be approved.

Not to mention that Microstrategy, in terms of assets held, is turning itself into a de facto Bitcoin ETF. I suspect the SEC is feeling trolled by that and I wonder if it might make them more inclined to bring a real ETF to market.

jubalix

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I don't buy it the ETF has been promised for years it always gets promised and never happens

Lucius

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Quote from: ultrloa on December 31, 2020, 10:02:02 PM

Oh common this is another fud spread which can create panic to the people if ETF approval will get failed again...

I don't see the point in this kind of news being understood in any way as FUD (Fear, uncertainty, and doubt) because it is a legitimate request from a legitimate company to the SEC. If the SEC accepts the request, the market would get another very powerful instrument for large investors, and if that does not happen, there will be no panic - the price that is currently formed does not depend on the outcome of this request.

I think the Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, the only question is when the SEC will decide on it - and given the growing interest for BTC in the US, it may happen in the next 2 years.

ultrloa

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Oh common this is another fud spread which can create panic to the people if ETF approval will get failed again and I'm so sick to read about this and doesn't have hope about this for now so maybe people should be prepared and need to know about how the manipulator used this as an issue for the price to get dump, so hopefully we will not see any downwards when it get rejected again.

magneto

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I'm still a bit skeptical as to how much of a boost an ETF approval can realistically give to bitcoin demand.

Sure, it will give mainstream investors another opportunity at investing in BTC. But I feel like that there are already a bunch of services that make the buying process very simple for retail investors, and institutional investors would probably want to retain custody over their own holdings anyway.

But yeah, if ETFs were to be approved at all, it would likely be in the next few years whilst the SEC is chaired by a pro-bitcoiner.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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@ Globb0. I might be wrong on the timeline, however, I am quite certain there will be more than 2 Bitcoin ETF to be offered for mainstream investors who want some exposure on bitcoin.

In any case, this news hehe.

As 2020 draws to a close, one of the prior proponents for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin is trying again: VanEck has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a “VanEck Bitcoin Trust.”

An ETF is seen as advantageous because it trades on the stock market in much the same way as shares in popular companies such as Apple and Microsoft.

VanEck has previously proposed ETFs, withdrawing its most recent application in September 2019. At the time the company said it remained committed to an exchange-traded product.

Source https://www.coindesk.com/vaneck-proposes-bitcoin-etf-again

Globb0

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Free spirit

We will see if you are right,

I have lost confidence with every fail and rejection.

There is always promising noises then a pull back at the last second.

Just like all the other market manipulation.

aesma

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Bitcoin is volatile no doubt, so I don't even see how you can use 100X leverage really, unless you're only doing minutes long trades, but then yes it's really a bet, not a trading strategy.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 09, 2020, 11:16:48 PM

Quote from: exstasie on December 08, 2020, 06:05:28 AM

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

Stability depends on what type of market something is on, I reckon. In a market where exchanges give everyone 100x leverage it will be very volatile. In a more regulated market where people are there more to invest than to gamble, it might have lower volatility.

Only unregulated casinos like Bitmex offer 100x leverage, and even then, Bitmex traders only use ~8x leverage on average: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitmex-rejects-bold-lawsuit-claims-as-clearly-rehashed-internet-bunk

Real spot exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase Pro cap leverage at 5x tops. CME Group's Bitcoin futures limit leverage to 2-3x, not to mention they employ circuit breakers and things like that to reduce volatility. As volume moves out of the unregulated market and into regulated markets, I expect volatility to dampen if anything.

aesma

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I don't know if many people here use ETFs, personally I don't but I've seen then mentioned regularly on business channels, there are even specialized segments (Bloomberg ETF IQ, you can watch on youtube). To me they're a way to invest in a class of assets, in the case of commodities, or in a panel of stocks centered around a sector (or an indice). Gold ETFs are often mentioned, with them you're usually not buying just gold, or sometimes you're not buying gold at all, but for example mining companies stocks.

I didn't even know there were "single-asset ETFs", but apparently they do exist.

So, when talking about bitcoin ETFs, are we talking about an ETF that would just buy BTC, or rather an ETF that would be in mining companies, exchanges, things like that ? Or maybe a crypto ETF, invested in several coins ?

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: exstasie on December 08, 2020, 06:05:28 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 07, 2020, 10:40:14 PM

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.

However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

Quote from: adaseb on December 07, 2020, 11:12:07 PM

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation.

Not surprising at all given the lack of BTC exposed instruments in the equity market and the scale of their investment. I speculated this would happen when they made their initial investment.

Stability depends on what type of market something is on, I reckon. In a market where exchanges give everyone 100x leverage it will be very volatile. In a more regulated market where people are there more to invest than to gamble, it might have lower volatility.

thecodebear

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After years of speculations on when an ETF will happen, I don't think there is a reason to keep speculating. It'll happen eventually, and it'll happen when it happens. Could be next year, could be 3 years from now, could be 10 years from now. It isn't crucial to Bitcoin's mainstream adoption success, but will certainly help out. When it happens it'll be good, could still be years from now, until then Bitcoin is getting just fine without it.

darewaller

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Basically governments will try to stall this as much as they can but as we all know, it is impossible to make it stay like this forever. Eventually there will be a million ETF in the market that people could use and trade and invest into. When the market wants something, they will get it one way or another, same as crypto where if it was illegal to own any crypto, the price would be lower, but people would still own crypto illegally, just because something is illegal doesn't make it stop.

If the market wants ETF and governments do not provide it soon enough, it will definitely be in an illegal market covering that type of request from people. Which is why I think there will be ETF very soon, and they will get more in numbers from now on as well.

exstasie

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 07, 2020, 10:40:14 PM

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.

However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

I don't get it. An ETF wouldn't guarantee stability at all, and would be completely exposed to Bitcoin's volatility. That's the whole point, actually. At some point I'm sure we'll see leveraged and inverse ETFs too.

Quote from: adaseb on December 07, 2020, 11:12:07 PM

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation.

Not surprising at all given the lack of BTC exposed instruments in the equity market and the scale of their investment. I speculated this would happen when they made their initial investment.

kotajikikox

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 17, 2020, 08:26:09 PM

I predict yes, there will be an ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021 with the crypto mom Hester Peirce sworn in as an SEC commisioner yesterday.

I also predict that the first ETF for bitcoin approved will be the Winklevoss ETF.

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Caroline A. Crenshaw and Hester M. Peirce have been sworn into office as SEC commissioners.

Read in full https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-184

Where only 4-5 months before second quarter arrived is there any follow up news about this one?specially now that Trump Lose the election and New government will face us?

Quote from: aesma on November 18, 2020, 06:45:28 PM

Another advantage of ETFs is that it could bring people in for the long term. They wouldn't necessarily bail out at the first BTC crash, they could buy more.

Hope that People inside crypto will decide about that and for sure the ETF's approval happens the very moment this was passed.

But we knew what is the agenda of the people behind this both side the favor or not.

adaseb

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There is a joke going on that Microstrategy has pretty much launched a Bitcoin ETF since they are wanting to buy another $400 million worth of BTC. And since they already bought like $550M worth, and current unrealized profits are over $1B currently most of their market value is based largely on bitcoins price.

If you add MSTR to tradingview and compare it to BTC you will see the very close correlation. MSTR is different from GBTC because GBTC are OTC from what I recall. Not everybody can buy that especially people who want to use their retirement funds. MSTR is different because its on Nasdaq and most brokerages support it. Ideally it will only work one way. If BTC goes up, so does the stock but not the other way around. If MSTR goes up, doesn't mean BTC will go up.

bbc.reporter

legendary

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Quote from: 7788bitcoin on November 18, 2020, 05:25:07 PM

Quote from: exstasie on November 18, 2020, 12:21:12 AM

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

The reason for not having the same hype as above is obvious as everyone is hearing about this for the past 4 years and everyone time the proposal is reviewed they reject them and when you go through multiple rejections the hype will die down Cheesy

.

If the prediction is true and if we get the approval by the second quarter of 2021 then everything will align together for the big push and we might see a huge rally that might take us to new levels.

Is that an argument that the bitcoin market is nothing but pumps and dumps on news? I reckon it appears this way many times hehehe.

In any case, there is demand from investors that want to invest on bitcoin but not direct exposure on bitcoin's volatility. The ETF is the only answer.

However, he is worried about bitcoin’s volatility and the regulators’ adverse response to it. “Every time I talk off the record to the regulators, because I talk to them all the time for various reasons, they’re a little squeamish on bitcoin, they are not quite there yet,” he cautioned.

O’Leary added, “When I can get this thing regulated so that I can put millions of dollars into it and know that I’m not off the side in any way. I’m not breaching anything … and it would be stable,” he affirmed:

If that was the case, if tomorrow morning we woke up and the SEC said you can create an ETF with bitcoin and we think bitcoin is a legitimate, you know, payment system and store of wealth, not only would it go up but you’d have a lot of people like me investing in it.

Source https://news.bitcoin.com/shark-tank-kevin-oleary-5-portfolio-sec-approved-bitcoin-etf/

beerlover

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If there is a big ETF that is going to affect bitcoin it will not really big this easy and it will not be this unimportant news that nobody cares about. You have to realize even on this bitcointalk forum you can see how much one news is important or not important.

If you write about a news and something potentially happening and there is 5+ pages per day written about it, until it reaches 30+ pages and becomes not so hyped, you can think it is an important news that will affect the price, but if it has only few pages after few days, it is not as important as you think it is.

What people think about this news and how many people write about it matters because bitcoin market is something that is changing constantly according to people who buy and sell and you can understand who wants to buy or who wants to sell depending on the reaction for the news.

aesma

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Another advantage of ETFs is that it could bring people in for the long term. They wouldn't necessarily bail out at the first BTC crash, they could buy more.

TimeTeller

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Quote from: 7788bitcoin on November 18, 2020, 05:25:07 PM

Quote from: exstasie on November 18, 2020, 12:21:12 AM

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

The reason for not having the same hype as above is obvious as everyone is hearing about this for the past 4 years and everyone time the proposal is reviewed they reject them and when you go through multiple rejections the hype will die down Cheesy

.

If the prediction is true and if we get the approval by the second quarter of 2021 then everything will align together for the big push and we might see a huge rally that might take us to new levels.

Right now, with or without ETF, crypto is enjoying the market.
But we are not discarding its effect if in case it will push thru next year.
But til then, let's just optimize our opportunities these days before we regret again the time that we should have made some investments.
Yes, people are tired of hearing this. So we basically just wait what's gonna happen to this proposal and not make a big deal out of it.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: exstasie on November 18, 2020, 12:21:12 AM

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

The reason for not having the same hype as above is obvious as everyone is hearing about this for the past 4 years and everyone time the proposal is reviewed they reject them and when you go through multiple rejections the hype will die down Cheesy

.

If the prediction is true and if we get the approval by the second quarter of 2021 then everything will align together for the big push and we might see a huge rally that might take us to new levels.

FanEagle

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Quote from: stompix on November 18, 2020, 12:47:40 AM

He has said that he sees the ethereum foundation doing the same as the company behind ripple, and if they start focusing on it it will be actually harder for them as they label themselves a non-profit organization with less room to maneuver in this case, and judging by how the bitcoin foundation acted probably they have lots of skeletons in their closets also, they've got also at least one member arrested so far, so while trailing behind they might catch up to it pretty soon. I'm pretty sure the SEC is going to keep an eye on things like this one.

Even if he goes after ethereum foundation, that is the foundation and not the currency itself, ethereum could still continue without the foundation and it would still be fine. However we need to realize that foundation and company are not same things, if found guilty by USA and even charged with something, there are plenty of members of the foundation outside of USA that could continue, and whoever gets jailed or found guilty could be replaced with someone new and could continue without a problem.

Whereas ripple is not like that, it is just one company with two partners and if you jail them it is all game over, it can't continue its existence without the company and companies could be punished compared to foundations which can't be. Hence I think there is no worrying for eth, but xrp could be in big trouble.

stompix

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Quote from: FanEagle on November 17, 2020, 09:34:51 AM

Gary Gensler would probably go harder on XRP than ETH because one of them is a company while the other one is a crypto currency. There is no company or a business behind ETH so you can't really go after ETH that much, what you can go after is the tokens or projects that base their business on ETH blockchain which could happen but simple solution would be to start a business outside of USA and they would be fine.

He has said that he sees the ethereum foundation doing the same as the company behind ripple, and if they start focusing on it it will be actually harder for them as they label themselves a non-profit organization with less room to maneuver in this case, and judging by how the bitcoin foundation acted probably they have lots of skeletons in their closets also, they've got also at least one member arrested so far, so while trailing behind they might catch up to it pretty soon. I'm pretty sure the SEC is going to keep an eye on things like this one.

btc_angela

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Quote from: exstasie on November 18, 2020, 12:21:12 AM

Quote from: adaseb on November 17, 2020, 12:08:04 AM

Do we really need a Bitcoin ETF anymore, this isn't like 2016 anymore. We got tons of regulated exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini for US clients. We got regulated bitcoin futures. We got Bakkt. We also got cash apps like Square. We got GBTC. We got Robinhood with Crypto and couple weeks back we got Paypal crypto. So if people want to invest in crypto, they got tons of options right now.

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

Right, and the closet we get is, Bitcoin-linked ETF surges as cryptocurrency eyes fresh record high.

Quote

Shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund GBTC, +6.89% surged 3.2% Thursday as the price of the cryptocurrency BTCUSD, 0.24% moved higher. Grayscale's ETF is the closest investors can get to making trading bets on Bitcoin, since regulators have declined to allow the currency itself to be packaged into an ETF. GBTC tracks price movements in the digital currency, which has recently made a run at a fresh record. Among other things, Bitcoin's popularity increases along with easy-money policies in traditional money markets. Its all-time high was close to $20,000 three years ago. In the year to date, GBTC has gained nearly 120%.

And I think it will be the hype that we needed to push the price to $20k at least if there will be an approval from SEC, as it will capture the interest of more investors to BTC.

exstasie

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Quote from: adaseb on November 17, 2020, 12:08:04 AM

Do we really need a Bitcoin ETF anymore, this isn't like 2016 anymore. We got tons of regulated exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini for US clients. We got regulated bitcoin futures. We got Bakkt. We also got cash apps like Square. We got GBTC. We got Robinhood with Crypto and couple weeks back we got Paypal crypto. So if people want to invest in crypto, they got tons of options right now.

Traditional stock investors and long term investors don't trade futures or touch Bitcoin spot exchanges. GBTC is extremely expensive and mainstream stock investors don't touch the pink sheets anyway.

In the same way that Paypal is exposing a huge new market to BTC, and providing customers access to investment exposure, so will an ETF. Not to mention that a liquid ETF will pave the way for mainstream pension/retirement fund options that provide exposure to BTC. These are massive markets that are still largely untapped.

An ETF is still a huge deal, it's just not being hyped anymore.

aesma

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A BTC ETF woud be good for sure. ETFs are all the rage, BTC is also getting notices, a combination of the two would bring in billions for sure, and help the price stay at current high levels, or go higher.

palle11

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Quote from: enhu on August 19, 2020, 01:39:09 PM

The consideration in the past years and during the bear market just died and now the talks about ETF have again resurfaced while its now almost in the bull trend. While its will be great to have ETF approved, its best not to expect or just be disappointed over again. If it's going to be reconsidered, I think they will just approve a lot of crypto ETFs at once.

Moreover there is certainty in the writing of op on the new boss but no reference to his positive support for ETF approval in the past. If he has not shown a strong will for the approval before his appointment, then it seems that politics will continue playing out in the issue.

Lucius

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Quote from: adaseb on November 17, 2020, 12:08:04 AM

Do we really need a Bitcoin ETF anymore, this isn't like 2016 anymore. We got tons of regulated exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini for US clients. We got regulated bitcoin futures. We got Bakkt. We also got cash apps like Square. We got GBTC. We got Robinhood with Crypto and couple weeks back we got Paypal crypto. So if people want to invest in crypto, they got tons of options right now.

It is not at all a question of whether we need a BTC ETF or not, it already exists (only not in the US), but it is a question of when it will be approved there as well. One such mechanism should not be taken so lightly, because when ETF proposals were a hot topic, most experts agreed that they would be the perfect bridge between big investors and Bitcoin. Now we can ask the question if we want trillions of $ of their money, because no matter what ETF/s would launch the price into the sky, in the long run it would probably be detrimental for BTC.

A good article about the BTC ETF, it's not bad to be reminded of what it's really about -> Bitcoin ETF: Everything You Need To Know

FanEagle

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Gary Gensler would probably go harder on XRP than ETH because one of them is a company while the other one is a crypto currency. There is no company or a business behind ETH so you can't really go after ETH that much, what you can go after is the tokens or projects that base their business on ETH blockchain which could happen but simple solution would be to start a business outside of USA and they would be fine.

XRP on the other hand is a company that also works with other companies who are mainly in USA which means getting outside of USA wouldn't be enough for them if they lose all their american partners. Which is why I believe we are going to see a huge drop in XRP if there is even a single investigation towards them, they are staying high thanks to their deals and their deals will be done with if they get a big investigation going.

stompix

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on November 16, 2020, 10:15:07 PM

News update.

I reckon if cryptomom will be assigned as the Chairman of the SEC, it might be the begin the golden years of the cryptospace as a market for speculative investments, ETFs and as a market for innovation where democratic fundraisers are legal.

You know that she was the Republican pick, and that with the tables turned in the elections unlss Trump somehow manages to give her that place before January the chances after that are way below zero? There is already a fight behind the curtains for this job and not between the two parties but between the democrats themselves, and cryptomom is on nobody's list. As for Gary Gensler, that's not so good news for XRP and ETH.

But, besides that, who still cares about ETFs, it's like that flying car that everybody wanted but once they finally make one there will be little to no buyers.

adaseb

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Do we really need a Bitcoin ETF anymore, this isn't like 2016 anymore. We got tons of regulated exchanges like Coinbase or Gemini for US clients. We got regulated bitcoin futures. We got Bakkt. We also got cash apps like Square. We got GBTC. We got Robinhood with Crypto and couple weeks back we got Paypal crypto. So if people want to invest in crypto, they got tons of options right now.

I don't think a approved bitcoin ETF will have as much impact in 2021 as it might of had back in 2017 when the ETF was rejected. However I do agree with you that most likely the Bitcoin ETF will be approved. Maybe in 2021 or 2022 or so. Bitmex seems to be having less of an impact on the markets and its a plus since it was a large hurdle with regulators in the past.

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@bbc.reporter - maybe you can consider this as another sign of a Bitcoin ETF by 2021,

So there's a lot of changes from behind, so maybe, just maybe a ETF could be in the horizon next year as you have predicted, hehehe.

https://www.coindesk.com/biden-confirms-gary-gensler-will-lead-financial-policy-transition-team

Quote

Gary Gensler, a Washington and Wall Street veteran who has closely studied the budding cryptocurrency field, will lead the financial policy transition team for projected U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.

A former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Gensler was tapped to lead the agency review team for the Federal Reserve, banking and securities regulators, the Biden campaign formally announced Tuesday, following reports last week he was a contender.

As CFTC chairman, Gensler served as a key financial regulator for former President Barack Obama, spearheading new derivatives rules after the 2008 financial crisis. He also served in the Treasury Department during the Clinton administration.

More recently, he has also testified before Congress about cryptocurrency and blockchain on multiple occasions, pushing back against comparisons between cryptocurrencies and Ponzi schemes and declaring that the still-unlaunched libra token met the requirements of being a security under U.S. law. At an MIT conference two years ago, he opined there was a “strong case” XRP (XRP, +11.30%), the cryptocurrency closely associated with startup Ripple, is a security. Gensler called blockchain technology a “change catalyst” in a 2019 op-ed for CoinDesk.

bbc.reporter

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News update.

I reckon if cryptomom will be assigned as the Chairman of the SEC, it might be the begin the golden years of the cryptospace as a market for speculative investments, ETFs and as a market for innovation where democratic fundraisers are legal.

Jay Clayton, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is stepping down from the agency at the end of this year.

Clayton's departure comes months ahead of his scheduled release in June 2021. Clayton was sworn in as the SEC chairman in May 2017 after being appointed by President Donald Trump. Now that Joe Biden has been elected as the new U.S. President, it remains to be seen who replaces Clayton.

In the crypto community, Clayton is also known for his cautious stance on bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Several bitcoin ETFs were filed with the SEC for approval under Clayton's leadership, but none received the green light.

The crypto market could see some clarity around these issues if SEC Commissioner, Hester Peirce (aka Crypto Mom), replaces Clayton and takes the agency's helm.

Source https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/84713/sec-chairman-jay-clayton-stepping-down

bbc.reporter

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@el kaka22. However, the ETF will not be an outlet offered only for small investors. I am certain that it will be the principal outlet created for institutional investors who want some exposure to bitcoin strictly as an investment.

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If we can finally get an ETF that means people will have another outlet where they do not buy bitcoin but they buy something that represents bitcoin, I hate that. I hope that one day people will realize that having bitcoin on your own wallet is the only way to go.

You can use blockchain.com they do give you your own wallet, they actually do have the data to hack you one day even though they say they do not keep it I do not believe them, but if you want to that is simply bitcoin wallet at it is simplest form and I feel like that is what we need to actually have, not some third party that will hold our coins for us, even exchanges suck about that, we have seen so many exchanges get hacked and exit scam, so there is no way that you could have a control of your money if there is ETF you can invest into.

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Quote from: arwin100 on August 27, 2020, 09:16:11 AM

I wonder why this ETF discussions became alive again since or so many times we discuss it the price keep crashing once it didn't get an approval so provably it can create confusion and might newbie get panic for certain things regarding on this topic. And I don't want to talk about ETF anymore since its so nonsense to talk about almost impossible things for now

price crashed not because of etf but there are so many reasons why it can happen . infact one of the reasons why price increase is becauase of etf .
it gives a hyped effect but this etf do also has its problems . so many times people expect and wait for its approval but theres no clear answer if what its status or what exactly happened to them

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: gentlemand on August 28, 2020, 04:49:00 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 28, 2020, 01:26:25 AM

I am not certain what this is, however, I speculate that it might be an ETF.

They wouldn't announce something that has no legal right to exist. That would be a waste of their time and money, and everyone else's. An ETF is only one form of wrapper. There are many others ready to roll right now without having to speculate or smack your head against a brick wall.

What are those others that are ready to roll and when do you speculate would they be announced and available? Also on the 2nd quarter of 2021 hehehe?

In any case, I was only speculating. The first ETF will open the door for more and then we will witness the real pump begin. Prepare for the big short, however hehehehe.

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Quote from: justdimin on August 29, 2020, 10:46:34 AM

What do people think will change when there is an Bitcoin ETF and there is billions changing hands there? I mean we are talking about another layer of bitcoin not actually being owned but just the thought of it being owned and that is not great at all.

It's because more institutional money will go to the market with these Bitcoin ETF's being filed and proposed by individuals and companies.

Quote from: justdimin on August 29, 2020, 10:46:34 AM

We already got the financial systems "futures" thing and now people can make profit from bitcoin going down because of that, which caused a lot of people spending tens of millions of dollars trying to drop the price in order to profit, I do not want another feature that would help people focus on anything but to just own bitcoin and have it on their wallet like it was intended to be.

Time has change, bitcoin its one of the best speculative assets, it's already been called the digital gold so the use case has dramatically altered.

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Quote from: justdimin on August 29, 2020, 10:46:34 AM

What do people think will change when there is an Bitcoin ETF and there is billions changing hands there? I mean we are talking about another layer of bitcoin not actually being owned but just the thought of it being owned and that is not great at all.
Think about it, people are putting money on the fact that bitcoin will go up or down without actually buying bitcoin itself, and I rather not have that in crypto.

What should be differentiated with the BTC ETF is that there are two versions of this way of trading. The first involves physically buying Bitcoin on the basis of which fund then sells the shares and such an ETF was proposed by VanEck and SolidX. Such an ETF would definitely create a lot of pressure on the market, and thus cause a big price increase - most experts and some experienced members of this forum agree on that.

The second type of ETF proposed by everyone else is actually trading derivatives, without actually owning Bitcoin. This is of course a much cheaper way for funds because they don’t have to buy Bitcoin and worry about its security, but I’m not sure how much such trading would affect the price.

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What do people think will change when there is an Bitcoin ETF and there is billions changing hands there? I mean we are talking about another layer of bitcoin not actually being owned but just the thought of it being owned and that is not great at all.

Think about it, people are putting money on the fact that bitcoin will go up or down without actually buying bitcoin itself, and I rather not have that in crypto.

We already got the financial systems "futures" thing and now people can make profit from bitcoin going down because of that, which caused a lot of people spending tens of millions of dollars trying to drop the price in order to profit, I do not want another feature that would help people focus on anything but to just own bitcoin and have it on their wallet like it was intended to be.

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Quote from: arwin100 on August 27, 2020, 09:16:11 AM

I wonder why this ETF discussions became alive again since or so many times we discuss it the price keep crashing once it didn't get an approval so provably it can create confusion and might newbie get panic for certain things regarding on this topic.

Because the OP thinks that the new, and in fact the old member of that commission will change something in the way the SEC thinks about Bitcoin when it comes to ETFs, and also from the news that came from Fidelity on the establishment of a Bitcoin fund - but that has nothing to do with the approval of the Bitcoin ETF.

As far as I know, there is currently no active request for such an ETF, and the last one was rejected in February this year (Wilshire Phoenix Fund), while Bitwise withdraw its application as early as January this year. The SEC has also more than obviously signaled that it will not approve any such request in the near future until all their requirements are met. And I would like to see how someone can influence to prevent market manipulation and illegal activities which the SEC cites as the main obstacles to approval.

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Well, just because governments and their branches want to make stuff for bitcoin doesn't mean that they will be capable of. Let's say banks started to give out loans in bitcoin and on paper they have more bitcoin and loaned more bitcoin combined over 21 million, they got 1 bitcoin as savings account from someone and loaned 5 bitcoins to others using that same 1 bitcoin, that is literally what they do with fiat, that doesn't change the fact that all of those are virtual and people do not own it, there could be ton of horrible stuff for the banks but this time when they crash government can't print bitcoin and give it to them, bitcoin is bitcoin and nobody could replace it or control it.

This is why let them do whatever they want, they can't get away with it this time around.

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 28, 2020, 01:26:25 AM

I am not certain what this is, however, I speculate that it might be an ETF.

They wouldn't announce something that has no legal right to exist. That would be a waste of their time and money, and everyone else's. An ETF is only one form of wrapper. There are many others ready to roll right now without having to speculate or smack your head against a brick wall.

bbc.reporter

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I am not certain what this is, however, I speculate that it might be an ETF. There were no clear details given in the article except that it was a fund and that it might be offered only to institutions and also maybe rich individuals.

The prediction remains, Bitcoin ETF on the 2nd quarter of 2021 hehehe.

Fidelity president and director of digital funds Peter Jubber today filed paperwork with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) informing the regulator of a new fund dedicated to bitcoin.

The previously unknown Wise Origin Bitcoin Index Fund I, LP was incorporated this year and is being run from the same Boston headquarters where the investing giant manages $8.3 trillion in customer funds. The early documentation provides little in the way of details about the fund, and shows that zero investors have currently participated. We do know that the minimum investment to join the pooled investment fund is $100,000, indicating this is likely only for institutional and accredited investors.

Source https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2020/08/26/fidelity-president-files-for-new-bitcoin-fund/

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Quote from: aesma on August 27, 2020, 08:08:32 AM

And on the other side, the SEC approving it would also lose credibility, all kinds of Ponzis could be approved next, with dire consequences.

An ETF that could have a chance would be one only tangentially linked to BTC, like an ETF including mining companies, crypto exchanges, etc.

I somehow doubt after all the grind of making people jump through a million hoops to get a Bitcoin ETF going the SEC will kick back, relax and think 'fuck it, PONZI TIME.'

The reason we're still droning on about this is they know perfectly well how much human garbage exists in the crypto space. Whoever pulls it off will have to be whiter than white. There won't be many places permitted to run one should the day when approval arrives ever comes.

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I wonder why this ETF discussions became alive again since or so many times we discuss it the price keep crashing once it didn't get an approval so provably it can create confusion and might newbie get panic for certain things regarding on this topic. And I don't want to talk about ETF anymore since its so nonsense to talk about almost impossible things for now

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Be careful what you wish for. Bitcoin is supposed to replace things like the SEC, not to be controlled by it !

And on the other side, the SEC approving it would also lose credibility, all kinds of Ponzis could be approved next, with dire consequences.

An ETF that could have a chance would be one only tangentially linked to BTC, like an ETF including mining companies, crypto exchanges, etc.

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on August 19, 2020, 05:21:04 PM

I'm not sure how much people care about the success or failure of them anymore, but it's been an issue that never got any resolution. Sure would be nice if it could be put to rest one way or another IMO.

Unlike 2017-2018, there is no anticipation of imminent approval. That hype train sputtered to a stop a long time ago. If/when an ETF approval does happen, it's a huge, huge deal though.

Retail investors don't really touch pink sheet or futures/options markets. They need openly accessible funds, especially those that can be held in conventional retirement accounts. An ETF will be a game changer in that respect.

I expect it to happen eventually. For now I think the SEC is keeping the market on ice until more volume flows into regulated markets, and probably until some bigger legacy players apply.

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Quote from: royalfestus on August 18, 2020, 05:16:22 AM

Do people still talk about ETF with regard to bitcoin?

Apparently, yes. When I opened this thread, I though it might have been necrobumped by someone from three years ago, but nope--the bitcoin ETF is still a thing. I'm not sure how much people care about the success or failure of them anymore, but it's been an issue that never got any resolution. Sure would be nice if it could be put to rest one way or another IMO.

I wouldn't invest in any crypto-based ETF, but that's just me and I know they'd be popular among a certain class of investors who prefer trading on stock exchanges rather than crypto ones. So in so far as that's true, I do hope these ETFs come to fruition, much as I was hoping that Bakkt would launch successfully even though I knew I'd never use it.

Quote from: gentlemand on August 18, 2020, 09:16:45 AM

It's not for Bitcoin drama brats. It's for everyone else out there in the real world who otherwise wouldn't consider BTC. If it pops up through their usual investment channels they're going to be far more compelled to take a look.

As always, you put my thoughts into words more eloquently than I ever could.

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I don't think we'll see an ETF this year. Most efforts will just be focused on the repairs of Wall Street and other financial institutions severely hit by the pandemic. No matter how good the Winklevoss twins' presentation is, the SEC would still sit on that application even though you already have 2 commissioners which are likely to agree on that positive decision, with 2 others obviously not really buying the crypto game and a newly-sworn person which do not seem to share her views with crypto yet.

Quote from: gentlemand on August 18, 2020, 05:04:31 AM

The Jay geezer going is helpful to it, but one or two commissioners agitating for it will still be outvoted by others. Even if those who outvoted them like the vague idea of it, they like the idea of not rocking the boat more.

This is true. They don't want to touch it any further unless they see actual reward for it. In this case, there's not much in for the government but only for the people and those who run the ETF. Lots of years in, we still don't have a clear definition on what the SEC really wants to approve a single ETF.

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 17, 2020, 08:26:09 PM

I predict yes, there will be an ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021 with the crypto mom Hester Peirce sworn in as an SEC commisioner yesterday.

I also predict that the first ETF for bitcoin approved will be the Winklevoss ETF.

Hester Peirce has already been a commissioner since 2018. Nothing new there. Who is Caroline Crenshaw? Any indication of her position towards crypto? A quick Google search doesn't turn up much in that department.

Also, why give the first ETF to the Winklevoss twins when they could wait and hand it to some legacy Wall Street institution? That's how these things usually go. Wink

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The consideration in the past years and during the bear market just died and now the talks about ETF have again resurfaced while its now almost in the bull trend. While its will be great to have ETF approved, its best not to expect or just be disappointed over again. If it's going to be reconsidered, I think they will just approve a lot of crypto ETFs at once.

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Winklewii twins were always rich people, they were never poor and they studied at harvard and come from a family that has been rich for the longest time, even their last name reeks out money for crying out loud.

However, what they have managed to do with the money they got from facebook is incredible, dudes actually managed to get into bitcoin a ton very early on and right now one of the richest crypto people on earth, hell for a while they said they had 1% of all crypto in the world and I know it can't be right now but that is $180k right now, that was around $40k or so back in the day.

Whatever it is they have, they are definitely super rich thanks to it. If they get to do an ETF, they are rich and old money, I am sure they will get theirs accepted before anyone else can.

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 18, 2020, 08:08:35 AM

Bitcoin doesn’t need an ETF to succeed further & to be honest I’ve given up hope of one being approved any time soon. Governments are afraid of bitcoin so they’re not going to do anything that’ll help it gain further adoption & credibility. I got my hopes up a lot over the years about various ETF applications & every single one has been put in the bin.

Agreed! I was only speculating on when the first one might be approved by using crypto mom's appointment as SEC commissioner as basis.

I also disagree that the ETF hype is dead. It will come back again, all of you wait.

@OgNasty. Hehe yes it will. It might help create most of it.

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It would certainly help create the perfect storm for another bubble in late 2021.

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Totally forgot about Bitcoin ETF haha. Too many times getting hyped about it only for the SEC to say nope not happening any time soon.

It'll probably happen eventually, and would certainly be very good for Bitcoin's price, but I'm not waiting for it to be some catalyst for appreciation of BTC price. When it happens that'll be cool, but it could very well be several years from now or longer.

When it does happen, cool, until then no reason to think about it. Between the halving, more institutional investment gradually coming in, based on MicroStrategy possibly the start of companies using Bitcoin as reserves instead of cash to offset higher inflation, DeFi starting to get popular and use wrapped Bitcoins for DeFi, and retail investors coming back as the price rises, we're all set on a bull run without any ETF.

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Quote from: Juggy777 on August 18, 2020, 08:24:11 AM

Also let’s say that it does come out in 2021 will people actually care for it, because I’m pretty sure that like me they too would have grown tired of this drama and may have lost their desire to invest in it.

It's not for Bitcoin drama brats. It's for everyone else out there in the real world who otherwise wouldn't consider BTC. If it pops up through their usual investment channels they're going to be far more compelled to take a look.

I expect by the time an ETF ever did arrive, and it's going to be many years, there'll be multiple workarounds and better alternatives so it'll turn up with a squeak rather than a clap of thunder.

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By April of 2021? I was expecting bitcoin ETF by 2018/2019 to stir up market but we are already into bullish mode hence I assume we are slightly to have first bitcoin ETF wrongly timed. Because, I expect bitcoin to be trading around $40,000 levels by April of 2021. This way I will welcome if first ETF will be happening by any time of 2022. Because, the bullish trend of four year cycle of bitcoin will come to end by December 2021 and then we must need another positive news to hold the investors.

Anyway, bitcoin got its own potential to stand on its own legs. These positive things may boost the adoption at some significant levels and we cannot expect anything more than that. So, we need to be prepared to enjoy all bullish things if ETF will be approved at any time Cool

.

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on August 17, 2020, 08:26:09 PM

I predict yes, there will be an ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021 with the crypto mom Hester Peirce sworn in as an SEC commisioner yesterday.

I also predict that the first ETF for bitcoin approved will be the Winklevoss ETF.

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Caroline A. Crenshaw and Hester M. Peirce have been sworn into office as SEC commissioners.

Read in full https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-184

Quote from: btc_angela on August 18, 2020, 07:34:50 AM

Quote from: royalfestus on August 18, 2020, 05:16:22 AM

Do people still talk about ETF with regard to bitcoin? some people have said several time that it got nothing to do with price of bitcoin and it looks to be true, maybe the adoption rate might increase. There was this hype around Bakkt last year but it came at the wrong time, it is more than the acceptance shown by some financial system or Government, when the sentiment is right nothing prevents the pump.

I think that hype has died down already. I mean people grew tired of waiting from it, and then we enter the bearish trend and we totally forget about it. And then we are now in a bull run and there is a renewed interest again.

However, the argument that we don't need it seems to hold though. We have went for like 2 years of bear trend and without any news of this ETF and we survived. Now that we are in a bullish trend, we do actually need it? And that is the big question.

@bbc.reporter I had completely forgotten about this product, and honestly I’m not even excited for it unless SEC makes an announcement stating that they’re officially approving it. Also let’s say that it does come out in 2021 will people actually care for it, because I’m pretty sure that like me they too would have grown tired of this drama and may have lost their desire to invest in it.

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 18, 2020, 08:04:52 AM

Q2 2021? Maybe. By that time the new government (or current one) would also have been properly sworn in, and even if it's still Trump, his administration wasn't exactly fighting to throw out these ETFs.

At least we'll have something to look forward to once Defi hype dies down heh heh.

Many are waiting for this but because of many rejections, the hype dies so this news can give another chance to those who support ETF.

The hype on DeFi will die soon, and the cycle will continues so at least we have something to look for next year since we are close to end the year 2020 with a lot of challenges. Let’s see if SEC’s will favor on ETF this time or this is just another hype to pump bitcoin, we’ll find out.

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Bitcoin doesn’t need an ETF to succeed further & to be honest I’ve given up hope of one being approved any time soon. Governments are afraid of bitcoin so they’re not going to do anything that’ll help it gain further adoption & credibility. I got my hopes up a lot over the years about various ETF applications & every single one has been put in the bin.

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Q2 2021? Maybe. By that time the new government (or current one) would also have been properly sworn in, and even if it's still Trump, his administration wasn't exactly fighting to throw out these ETFs.

At least we'll have something to look forward to once Defi hype dies down heh heh.

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Quote from: royalfestus on August 18, 2020, 05:16:22 AM

Do people still talk about ETF with regard to bitcoin? some people have said several time that it got nothing to do with price of bitcoin and it looks to be true, maybe the adoption rate might increase. There was this hype around Bakkt last year but it came at the wrong time, it is more than the acceptance shown by some financial system or Government, when the sentiment is right nothing prevents the pump.

I think that hype has died down already. I mean people grew tired of waiting from it, and then we enter the bearish trend and we totally forget about it. And then we are now in a bull run and there is a renewed interest again.

However, the argument that we don't need it seems to hold though. We have went for like 2 years of bear trend and without any news of this ETF and we survived. Now that we are in a bullish trend, we do actually need it? And that is the big question.

royalfestus

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Do people still talk about ETF with regard to bitcoin? some people have said several time that it got nothing to do with price of bitcoin and it looks to be true, maybe the adoption rate might increase. There was this hype around Bakkt last year but it came at the wrong time, it is more than the acceptance shown by some financial system or Government, when the sentiment is right nothing prevents the pump.

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Even though there ETFs based on much, much shakier things than BTC I don't see it happening any time soon. Those shaky things happen on markets under the SEC's full control. The Bitcoin market never will be. Dunno how they'll ever square that circle.

The Jay geezer going is helpful to it, but one or two commissioners agitating for it will still be outvoted by others. Even if those who outvoted them like the vague idea of it, they like the idea of not rocking the boat more.

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You should put a least a poll and see how members think of ETF by 2021. If I'm not mistaken, it's been a hotly debated topics in the community way back and people are still divided but members are in at the majority of would like to see the Winklevoss ETF being approved.

Remember back that it is anticipated in March 2017, pushing the price to four digits. However, their ETF has been rejected many times already. So let's see if those commissioners will give it a go.

bbc.reporter

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I predict yes, there will be an ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021 with the crypto mom Hester Peirce sworn in as an SEC commisioner yesterday.

I also predict that the first ETF for bitcoin approved will be the Winklevoss ETF.

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Caroline A. Crenshaw and Hester M. Peirce have been sworn into office as SEC commissioners.

Read in full https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-184

Topic: Bitcoin ETF by 2nd quarter of 2021? (Read 1156 times)