Topic: Bitcoin ETF Rally Proved Short-Lived, and $100K Dreams Faded (Read 218 times)

I agree, we do not have too much liquidity and volume compared to most traditional markets which is how it could be going up and down so much plus the regulations are lower as well and there is no centralization all of which combine makes it a lot more volatile, add in the fact that it is global and not based on just one nation combined with everyone being able to enter even with just few dollars all makes it crazy volatile.

So, crypto will always be like this, was always like this and is like this right now. Everyone who gets here "should" know this, obviously some don't and get scared whenever the price drops but it is not everyone, and we could always focus on something more stable if we do not like the volatility here.

No, it's not, it's actually 48% for all addresses with a balance and 35% for those that have more than 0.001, I should have been a little more exact on the dust thingie.

https://archive.fo/YIVFN#selection-731.0-1033.13
2 Oct 2019 08:46:02 UTC

27335350 addresses with a balance, 14061631 with over 0.001

Data right now: (I will edit this post with the archive link since I'm 7k in the queue)
https://archive.fo/75p7W#selection-993.0-996.0

40021261 addresses with a balance, 19282324 with over 0.001

The futures-based ETF approved in the US last year could not have had any major impact on the price other than the psychological effect - what has not happened (so far) is a physically-based BTC ETF which would mean funds have to buy BTC to be able to sell shares. Some would say that the media has once again managed to sell the story of something as big as 2017 with CME futures - and that was not a difficult mission since the average person can't even understand what it's all about.

Even if we look at how people think today, not only were they wrong about what they thought, but they still don’t distinguish between futures and physically-based ETFs.

It is closer to 100% increase rather, from about 450k in Jan 2019 to almost 1000k past month.
But I'd argue that this is not the best measure of adoption if you are using it in comparison to the past because different factors have led to huge spikes in number of addresses in use like the spam attack of 2017.

I do not agree this. People who are into this crypto space for years must be aware of the nature of bitcoin market as hype-FOMO-FUD are always in cycle to drive this market into new heights. Over-leveraged might be a too technical term here but we are used to hype and ATH and then sell-off to bottom still that bottom usually higher than previous highs which must be the enough proof that this market is not built on only by leveraged; yeah there are enough adoption is also happening side by side.

The next story-line of main stream media can be anything but surely it will end on convincing some people to adopt bitcoin hence it means all such events (bitcoin etf, news from El Salvador, etc) are doing its exact purposes.

Agreed. It is certainly also because the setting and bullish preparation of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 will never be recreated on 2022. Many people during 2020 and 2021 were under lockdown and much of them were given stimulus checks while the government printed money from nothing to pump the economy. There is also the problem if bitcoin and the cryptospace can attract the same number of new users similar to 2020 and 2021.

Yep. I actually thought this ETF thing died a while back already, whatever assumptions people had priced in long before this rally began, and the whimper of market reaction to when the first ETFs finally got approved seemed to confirm it.


2017 had very little legs to stand on, and the collapse quickly thereafter proved that. This rally's already so different, public companies having it on books as you said, expansion of Bitcoin payment companies that weren't making similar moves in 2017 (talking about the Bitpays and Coinmes and smaller ones all seeing uptake of apps used to spend Bitcoin). That's my optimism that we're actually still on the up, and market numbers have never really been known to reflect fundamentals except in the long term.

I don't like putting the blame on a major swift in price and a continuous bearish or bullish tren on a single event, the same case happening here, and when I see ETF, meh, who still cares about ETFs right now?

But the part of optimism is a bit true, poeple were making a lot of assumptions, and although 100k was pretty double one should stop with the extrapolation on past records and simply look at the amount of money needed to go to levels some claims of 300-500k. Yeah, bitcoin did grow xxxxx times but at the same time in all ten years, it has gone up by nearly 70k, so that would mean another half of what's invested now just to reach that 100k, and not counting a lot of other moves.

I thought 100k is achievable in some conditions, it was still feasible even in the last days of the first days of January a sudden pump everyone was waiting for could have triggered that move but now short term you can kiss that goodbye.


Poeple buying BTC at x to dump it at y is not adoption.

If you would have poeple using it you would have more transactions in the chain.
If you would have people storing it in their wallets you would have more addresses with a  balance, not just a 33% increase since 2019, and this including dust.

We didn't have that so-called natural growth last time, it was in my opinion driven more by speculation or plain hype than real adoption.
I think things need to calm down with the price for a while to let real price discovery happen, not fantasy projects or laser eyes, see where we stand and from where we need to build on.

Optimism sometimes gives an opposite mood to the market. many of the rises that occurred in the price were preceded by a lot of pessimism and there were no logical reasons for them.
The more negative the price, the more the market is ready for more rises.

We cannot judge that the price will be $100K (Not about ETF rally) but definitely a level below $20K is not expected, and therefore to get an 79% correction, we will need to break some peaks above $60K.


Look at the bitcoin price every beginning of the year and you will realize that the increases that happen will continue in the long term, so there is no need to worry.

 

I think a lot of people were expecting a spot ETF to be approved in the US before the end of the year.  Being stuck with futures ETFs with high fees had the opposite effect on the market.  Most people are still on the sidelines waiting for COIN or a similar ETF to be approved.  It's looking now like that may not even happen until Q2, which seems to be purposefully aligning with the mtgox 200,000 BTC dump on the market.  It's going to be a year of high volatility for Bitcoin I think, so make sure you've got your shitting pants on.

Reaching $100k for bitcoin will not just be a dream because that will happen in the future, whether that will happen in this year or the future. Whether that is not happening because of the adoption but because of the pump, people will have their patience to wait. But the adoption will continue and we already see the progress is good until now and will reach more people to use and invest in bitcoin. So we still have time to accumulate more bitcoin at a price now or at the next lower price so we are not late to profit at $100k if that price is our target price.

SEC still hesitated on approving Physical Bitcoin ETF that's why the ETF impact is not that much huge and long term since the price on Futures ETF is not connected to the Bitcoin price and also the fee on this Futures is very high compared when you just open a future contract in FTX or other exchange that has a futures trading. I believe we just need a one more push towards Physical ETF to make this current trend reverse again.

People just normally cashing out for the profits and I think it's all expected, this drop.

Just how it moved so quick at the peak and there goes the quick drop as well which balances the move of bitcoin at this rate. I still believe to the dream of $100k. Well, the hope for $100k on 2021 faded for that year because many of us expected it to happen by that year.

But it won't fade that it will eventually come for sure.

Probably, many people now need money somehow. That's why they are cashing out their holdings and possibly dumping them. We all know this process, and we never expected it to happen this fast, but the important thing is that it happened; rising to $69k is a feat by itself. $100K might not happen right away, but the important thing is that we still believe and continue to accumulate. I think BTC is the best coin to HODL out of anything else.

It appears much of the people who replied in this thread are not living in reality. Is there really a considerable amount of adoption for bitcoin or is it only used as a speculative form of investment? This is where the difference lies between real adoption and calling something adoption. We can check the mempool, it is almost empty everyday because there is not much adoption. Also, how much of the world’s population is using bitcoin? Is it less than 3%? How much percent should it be to be considered genuinely adopted?

On the argument of bitcoin being overleveraged.

https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/open-interest/

Where did open interest begin during April, 2020? Billions have been pumped and liquidated on 2021 and it still is overleveraged. Bitcoin might pump again, however, does everyone speculate that a bear market will never arrive?

Completely agreed.

The amount of leverage that the crypto market is experiencing right now is utterly insane, and people are throwing around Ponzi schemes and Defi strategies that essentially lever themselves up by 10x chasing high yields.

Lots of risks being ignored atm that will come unwinding sooner or later.

The dream of $100k just faded for this year because of the S2F model made famous by PlanB. However, it's not the end of everything maybe we can still achieved that price next year or the year after. For the Bitcoin ETF rally, I guess when Wall Streets have entered the bitcoin market, manipulation is more evident and I think many whales have somewhat ride the news of Bitcoin ETF's push the price and take profits by playing on noobs emotions.

I had heard the second part, that it was the excess of leverage (liquidated at the minimum) that prevented us from reaching the expected blow off top for this time of the year. I think I heard it from CryptosRUs. And it seems to me that he is right. Doing only 3.5X from last cycle's ATH is not thanks to excessive leverage, excessive leverage is to blame for it.

For now the hopes of bitcoin to reach up that figures really faded but we shouldn't lose hope for that milestone to be reached since we still have many more events and adoption to come up and also we can add up the next halving season which I believe it can start up the hype again so maybe for now lets settle on what current market offer and adopt the current movement to gain.

Also ETF is just a short term flowery scenario and I believe this will not give long term effect to bitcoin.
 

If there is nothing like bitcoin adoption, would there be bitcoin leverage in crypto trading? No. Adoption is still the cause of anything happening in regards to this.

Did you expect only uptrends for bitcoin price without any downtrend? Gold and other assets that their prices depends on demand and supply were never like that, there will be a time for bull and a time for bear.

Do you want people that have missed out to never invest again? Some people are waiting for the price to plummet and invest.

Just do not believe in analysts, some will be right, some will overestimate.

But know that with all that is happening, it is all happening for good which will still drive bitcoin to all-time-high.

All I can tell you is that every year we keep seeing the same exact news where people are speculating that some arbitrary [higher] price like $300, $500, etc. in 2015, $1000+ in 2016, $4000+, $10000+, etc. in 2017, $10000+, $40000+, $100000 etc. in 2021-2022 are impossible and the "dream faded" because the market is over-leveraged. They also always claim the rise so far is not because of "adoption".

In the end nothing changes. The price keeps on rising after each dip after purging the weak hands who thought that arbitrary high price is unreachable and sold.

I don’t see how this is news really, this was well known pretty much a month back when we crashed down close to the low $40K.

And I don’t think this crash was caused by over leveraged positions, sure there was some degenerates liquidated on Bybit perps but most of this was due to the fact that it happened on an illiquid Saturday morning, where nobody trades.

I mean, that's what happens when the price is rising faster than normally, no? Also, we can have an over-leveraged market and at the same time have actual adoption; it's not one or the other. We literally have public companies holding bitcoin in their balance sheets now, which has very likely affected the market sentiment quite significantly.

I reckon that much of the people in the cryptospace are very uninformed on how overleveraged the cryptospace market presently is. This might change on 2022 where much of the mainstream news media and bitcoin news media’s next storylines will be about market leverage and how it was really leverage that pumped bitcoin to $69k. It was not adoption.



In October, the long-awaited U.S. bitcoin ETF approval sent BTC’s price toward an all-time high of almost $69,000. But extreme leverage preceded a sell-off back down to $47,100 by the end of the year.

Read in full https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/12/30/market-wrap-year-end-review-bitcoin-etf-rally-proved-short-lived-and-100k-dreams-faded/