Topic: Bitcoin factors drop in 2019 and now. (Read 515 times)

Well. Each of this factors had improved in last year same as in last 3 months. So considering only this factors price should actually increase. But it did not.  Why?  Because price of bitcoin was correcting after huge price increase 2 years ago. That happened right on schedule considering a 4 year bitcoin cycle.

Keep your hope alive on the crypto investments which is the only thing can make the prices to recover in near or later future.

Nah those that got stuck above 12k probably lost interest all over. More than people who exited to make profit, 2018 probably saw more people who exited to safe themselves from drastic losses. Though it's likely settled now and is ready to recover but i doubt about a great increase. We probably won't see that kind of growth anytime soon.

The drop in price of bitcoin was very much expected because of the massive increase we saw in 2017, it is not dropping because people are losing interest in crypto but it is dropping because many persons who made profit at that time are taking out their profit.

I also believe that the dip is over and we should begin see a great increase in price within the next few months. Maybe the second quarters of the year.

well randomly waiting on weird stuff to happen to the price is never going to end well for you. so the real question is why do you think that we can have 2 years of drops and more importantly why do you think price can drop 95%?
because for the life of me i can not think of any logical reason for any of these two conditions to be true! not to mention that something like that has never happened!

It looks like you are basing you conclusions on wrong premises. You basically assume that because there are bears who are still waiting for Bitcoin to crash to zero and there are also bulls which are hoping for a 7-digit figure in the future, we will see a lot of volatility (which I personally hope for, just in case)

However, the market doesn't take into account what anyone thinks or expects (let's call them dreamers), it is what everyone actually does which matters. And if no one is buying and no one is selling, that's pretty much it, i.e. lack of volatility. In other words, you can sit on your hands and dream on as long as you please, but that alone won't make your dreams come true

If wishes were horses, beggars might ride

I'm still waiting for a string of new lows for 2019, and fully expecting them to be beat 2018 lows. That's going to be the accumulation phase for me, even literally. So yeah, the wider range of $1k-3k suits me.

On volatility, I'm not sure people really are expecting to die. Aren't the bears still thinking it'll crash to zero? And the bulls still looking at a 7-digit figure in a handful of years? Aren't all those trading instruments waiting in the wings to handle all the expected speculation? None of that going to happen without volatility.

Then your whole post doesn't make sense

If the 3k was the bottom (the start of an accumulation range in your terms), we are already well into the bull market. And this has nothing to do with timeframes (because you already meant we hit the bottom). Look, I understand we don't know where the price will be in a month or even in a day, but you can't say that something is white and then pretend it is black (and vice versa). Now you are essentially backing off like we (well, me at least) have massively misunderstood what you wanted to say

naturally. i'm just confused as to why people would think the first short term consolidation after a crash = definitive of a long term range. based on how bitcoin historically acts, this area is just one stop on the overall trajectory. the bottom range that hopefully forms over 2019 should have a much bigger spread than $1000.

even the $6k bottom was much more volatile than that, bouncing from $6k nearly to $12k when first establishing the range.

it's as if people expect bitcoin's volatility to die. why? is it just recency bias?


no, you just have no sense of time frames. you apparently have trouble conceiving that bear markets don't go down in a straight line. for some reason, any time i expect the price to go up over the short term, you take it as a pronouncement that the bear market is over.

here's the word of the day: bull trap

and if the $3k bottom was the start of an accumulation range, i fully expect it to be a much wider range than $1000. based on the 2015 bottom range, i'd expect at least 3x wider than that.

All those factors are influencing the supply and demand 24/7.
The crypto markets became more regulated than before,but that didn't solve the problems.There are still many crypto scams,price are still being manipulated.More regulation is bad for crypto,because it makes it harder to use,while it doesn't make the markets more effective.

You make pretty contradictory statements

At first you say that we are still in a bear market (which I tend to agree with), then you proceed to claim what can be interpreted that we are no longer in a bear market. A bear market assumes we are going down (or at least continue to move in that tight range). How come? Yes, I understand that we can see if the market turned to bull only in hindsight but it does't make your words less contradictory

that, but also because it always takes time to change trend from the downtrend that lasted over 14 months to an uptrend that would be new and in opposite direction. and this accumulation phase with lots of bull trap looking drops is one of the most common trends that we have seen during each reversal in the past.

ah, give it more than 3 days. we only had one try at the $4200 level yet and that rejection was totally expected due to the previous top there.

this last spike down over the past day got quickly bought back up. it's looking like a stiff rejection of the bears. i think there's another leg up left to this bull trap.

and after that when the 200dma starts weighing things down again, i'm guessing $3100 ain't gonna hold either. this all feels like 2014 playing out in slow motion tbh. i don't get why people expect these ranges to be so tight or last so long. just cuz it happened one time, at $6k?

We can argue about the exact price levels, but to me it really seems that we're ranging between the 200WMA and the resistance around the $4200 mark (Bitstamp chart). The rejection of $4200 confirms that.

It's a firm range we're stuck in, and for now I do believe that we can expect more of the same until the trend shifts and we break out. It wouldn't surprise me if this continues all the way to Q4 where seasonality might cause a positive breakout.

I like the fact that I can accumulate as many coins as possible below $4000 so I don't mind it at all that we're not going up. I average in at least once, some times twice a month. I'm all set.

not at all...... the complete opposite in fact.

i'm pointing out that this is a bear market, therefore good news doesn't have much positive effect.


what are you talking about? maybe you have me confused with someone else.

i think we're still firmly in a bear market. we could be near the bottom (or maybe the bottom is in already) but we have not obviously formed a bottom range. so no i definitely don't think we are ranging between $3-4k, especially since we just went to $4300 a few days ago....

Did you actually mean to say the news being the cause or reason of a price move?

As I can't see how it can be the result of it (other than the news about the price itself). Anyway, you seem to be discarding a very important point or issue here. We get the news (any news, for that matter) when it had already been priced in (read, insiders already bought or sold it). So when it looks like the price has already been going when you hear it (which makes you think like it's a coincidence only), it is just because you are late to the party (and mostly everyone else)

At this time we should think like Bitcoin speculators, and it is easy, at the moment of having a small bull, that requires effort and result, when obtaining the desired result, which is to see the value of bitcoin above, many operators will enter, thinking in that they do not want to miss this movement, and that's when the operator takes advantage of selling and taking profit. That's how you should think so that the bitcoin moves do not take us by surprise and not we panic.

If every people nowadays panic in the same as other traders did, I believed that it's the most reason why bitcoin price dropped. Buying while price dipped at very low price, and that opportunity is your big reward in the future. When you try to think of holding longer, always bare in mind no such losses will happen when you apply that kind strategy. Because, as Bitcoin price changes the price increase after volatility occurred.

The significant impact is clearly that investors in the crypto sector seem to refrain from investing heavily, which clearly affects many projects that become delayed and even lose confidence. so this impact also affects bitcoin. but the direction of bitcoin began to appear to prevail when after a long period of silence it could penetrate $ 4K. this can make the positive side more able to develop. the time is indeed seen just a step further.

Moves that don't make sense? Everything makes sense when you take into consideration that most of the trading activity is automated, so whatever these smaller movements are that you refer to, they are very likely profitable.

Right now people seem to be afraid to go in with a big stack of cash, which is why the order books are very thin and we're tanking so hard after the last rejection. People said it was manipulation, but it isn't.

Big sales trigger others to add fuel to the fire by selling even more, because that's what this market seems to be about--people fomo in together on the way up and they panic sell together on the way down. 

Just because price dropped a bit doesn't mean we will have a bear year. I am not saying we won't because honestly nobody knows what will happen to bitcoin, it can go over 20 thousand dollars this year or it can go under 2 thousand dollars this year and both cases would be not surprising considering how volatile bitcoin is but just because we had a 300 dollar drop doesn't mean we will have a bear run and it also doesn't mean we will have a bull run just because it went from 3400 to 4200 as well.

These are just regular movements of bitcoin that it does all the time and after 6 years of being in bitcoin I can testify that big moves do happen but there are a lot of small moves that make no sense as well, I have seen plenty of small tiny moves like 300 dollars or whatever that didn't went to become anything important.

Noobies can say, but but, they sold the news.  

In all seriousness, news is barely the result of any actual move. People blindly assume it is because the price coincidentally was already going up or down at that point or slightly after the event. We had so many news events that people believed was the reason the price was tanking (e.g. social media attack on crypto advertisements, stricter regulations in Japan, South Korea, etc) that it's almost a miracle we're still above $3000.

Well, let me play the devil's advocate here. Thank you

I agree that many "real-life" assets move in cycles as this is exactly what we should expect as the economy itself develops through bumps and jumps mostly. But how do we know that Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies is going to follow this pattern in the first place? There's not much that relates it to real economy

For example, I could say (and you actually confirm my words) that the massive bull run of 2017 was entirely due to hype and speculation, and that it had nothing to do with real factors from the real world. So how can we really equal Bitcoin to other assets here and say that it is going to "be right back"? This surge may well have been a one-off event

I don't think that most of these factors that you list actually had much of a tangible impact on the price drop in recent months.

The most important factor here is the fact that 2017's bull market was completely unsustainable, and given that bitcoin prices generally move in cycles in the long term of bull and bear markets (just like any assets), a period of bearishness, dips, and general market inactivity was quite foreseeable even before the bear market actually happened.

For now, I actually think that positive regulations, the community driven nature, as well as institutions entering the market are all positive factors that will contribute to the upcoming bull market. When this bull market will emerge and the recovery will come though is up for speculation, though I'd expect it to come mid to late next year latest due to the halving.

It feels like you expected more from the last price action

And now that we are back to the roots, so to speak (though not fully yet), it seems that you have lost hope (and most certainly not you alone) and resigned yourself that these prices in this range (3-4k) may be for long. But as the saying goes, when hope dies, action begins, so maybe it is the right time to move to something else other than trading? Though it may be not what you would like to hear

Hey I'm not surprised by the dump as we all should have seen it coming, people these days tend to sell quickly as soon as Bitcoin prices rises. I believe most of these people who sold had brought it at 3300$ levels, and they got their profits and return now they'll dip in and buy again at lower prices. I'll agree with you as this dump may just revive the bear mode, that many thought was over after the recent pump.

what bad news? and how can you assume we're in a bear market because of some news stories?

you're onto something when you say "people are afraid to buy bitcoin again". that's the bear market mentality. it's not any particular news item or another. it's just the fact that we're in a bear market. demand is at extreme lows. no one is interested---especially because of the price trend. supply is strong because price has been crashing for a year straight. that's it.

i just saw samsung's announcement that they're adding crypto key storage to their next line of phones. great news right? price doesn't care, not a bit. if anything it dumped a several hundred bucks. that's the bear market for ya lol.

Bitcoin price movements in 2017 are different from the price differences that occur at this time because nowadays there is a lot of bad news circulating in Bitcoin and many do not provide support or are afraid to buy bitcoin again.

i think these are all just indications that 2017 was a raging bull market. no matter how many roadblocks we saw in china and india, nothing could stop it, for the same reason that bad news never ends a bull run.

i also think japan granting licenses to exchanges in 2017 was a reaction to the booming industry/demand, not the cause of it. it probably fed into the hype but we were already experiencing a bubble at that point. it was headed higher no matter what.

That's what I'm telling

It all depends on what kind of regulation we are talking about. If this regulation is about making our lives easier (read, it is overall in favor of Bitcoin), then it is going to help Bitcoin, as simple as it gets. But if it is more about putting grit in the Bitcoin "dream" machine, then such regulation will hurt cryptocurrencies (just as simple). The days when regulations didn't mean anything (like in 2011 when Bitcoin was virtually unknown) are long gone

no "bitcoin factor" has dropped! the only thing that has dropped is the price which was mostly because of the bubble and then because of the panic. and fundamentals are getting stronger every day.

as for regulations i won't say it is ineffective and it wouldn't say it is effective either. obviously it is a force that can affect the market and bitcoin future price a lot but it is nowhere near how some people make it to be.
we have seen many cases of regulations leading to big rises like Japan in 2017 which was one of the main reasons for the big rally to the ATH. and we have also seen negative cases of regulation that didn't do anything to price! like China and India in 2017 which despite all their roadblocks people continued buying bitcoin and price continued rising.

I have to disagree with this perspective

First of all, we simply can't take 2011 and claim it was the biggest and baddest bubble of all so far. The reason should be obvious. Back then there was no Bitcoin market as such, so it is not quite correct to talk about a bubble. In other words, price could be any as it didn't have any meaning yet across whatever markets existed back in the day

Second, you don't specify what kind of regulation you are talking about. For example, if Bitcoin is universally regulated anywhere close to how it is done in Japan (Bitcoin being legally equal to a foreign currency there), that would most definitely contribute to Bitcoin value. To deny this would amount to being in denial

I was surprised yesterday after bitcoin lose around $300 dollars within twenty four hours.  It is another dump that was not expected and it seems some people are ready to keep bitcoin below $4000. I think we should expect more bearish market this year than last year.

regulation simply doesn't matter. there was zero regulation whatsoever when bitcoin bubbled in 2011. and that was the biggest bubble to date in percentage growth terms. the idea that regulation is required for the price to grow is a fallacy.


again, it has nothing to do with regulation. ample regulations already existed around security tokens---most ICO fundraisers just chose to ignore them.

the fact is that the bull market ended. all the hype died. people stopped believing they could buy into the latest hot token and become a millionaire overnight. so the market started dumping, which caused investors to start dumping to lock in profits or cut losses. this is how all markets work.

"slowly falling" means price is losing a couple of percentages every couple of hours and at least goes down 10% per day. do you see that happening?

obviously not. all we had was a rise from $3600 to $4200 and then the panic kicked in from people thinking it is a "bull trap" and wanted to get out and price came back down to $3700+ that is not called "slowly falling".

your percentages are a bit off. this year we had mostly ups and downs not just drop. price started from a drop down to $3100 and went up to $4k and back to $3500 to stay there. and the overall drop is closer to 85%

the reason for bitcoin price drop is not the same as the reason for altcoin price drops.


your reasons don't make much sense to me. you are focusing too much on the "government" while missing the fact that bitcoin is decentralized and things that involve centralization such as regulations are meaningless in the bigger picture.

Bitcoin is tradable so the price may vary to the supply and demand of the market so if it goes down obviously someone sold his/her supply to a much lower price, the $73.9 billion market cap. of bitcoin yesterday falled to $67.3 billion now, let's say a whale sold his $6.6 billion worth of Bitcoin that's why the price drops down, yes it's possible but I believe on momentum also because a $6.6billion is a big trade if only one trader did this, I may say a group of traders made this happen and some cryptocurrency trading bot.

Why is it most of the people always say that the price is manipulated when it goes down but when it's going up there's a bull market.

Manipulation is painful, but this is what happens, we must be able to read the situation in crypto so that we avoid the whale's trap. The market game does look exciting but this gamble makes us suffer losses if we are not able to read the tricks of the pope itself. So keep calm and be patient, because all of this is only a game that we must manage well.

market confidence is indeed not good enough. this could be the cause of sluggish demand, especially business players from China are experiencing a decline in performance this can be very influential on the value of bitcoin because there are not many business people who invest in crypto. but this is only a temporary effect which usually when the world economy grows, the demand for bitcoin will certainly increase. things like this in trading are common.

That's exactly what is called a manipulation, when whales move a large amount of funds in order to manipulate the price. During last weeks whales have spread news to manipulate the market to go up and now they sold everything in a few hours, causing the price to drop instantly.

The most important factor is the number of exchanged coins. Not many coins are sold on exchanges and it's usually the same coins. Take total supply and subtract lost and abandoned coins, coins traded OTC, coins owned by hodlers, and you're left with 50% or less. The price is based on that amount. If somebody sells 10 thousand coins on exchange there's not enough liquidity for it not to start a cascade and panic and this isn't a big part of total supply. It shouldn't move the price that much.

I think more of this way also. Law of supply and demand.
Maybe, there is a lil bit of market manipulation but it will not significantly affect the downfall of bitcoin.
Just a bit of downward trend but it will come back again.
Remember, giant companies are integrating blockchain within their system and more merchants are now accepting bitcoin and other currencies as payment method.
Users are continuously growing everyday. And more people are learning the benefits of crypto.
And with that, I firmly believe that we are heading in a positive direction.

This are simply reasons why bitcoin fluctuates in value and not factors which are causing the drop in price.
The market reacts differently in different situations. There are many factors which causes price movements, but no one can determine the direction. Except of course demand.

You really think there is just one whale that that does huge transfers or withdarawals ?, There are many whales and groups doing these transfers and withdrawals here and there from every exchange wallet, or from their personal wallet to another wallet daily, there are times like they are trying to buy some cheaper btc so what they do is basically dump some huge amount of btc and push the price lower like 300-400 and when the price is going sideways say for a day or a week they slowly start accumulating more btc in that price range, that's why it is called manipulation.



Where did I say manipulation is going to go away ?, What I'm saying is when market cap is plummeting at 130B it's way easier to manipulate the market in a way you want, You cant compare this market to the time where it was at 500B market cap, it was way harder back then to change or manipulate the price, because you needed 4x more btc that was around 20k at the time instead of 1/4 btc when btc is around 4k.

It was decentralized when it was 20k and will remain so. That is why it is profitable, if it was already managed by the government, we were playing with "pips". Using limits by governments to exchanges can help a little, but volatility will be reduced and I have no idea how pleased we will.

Manipulation are still on even if the market pumps again, it canno change easily. The drop before is very hard for everyone but now we have to move on since we are growing again. I think there will be no bottom this year since we already hit it and its time now to pump.

I don't find it a manipulation, this seems to be a large volume fund transfer or withdrawal from the market circulation by a whale. This has lead to the gradual growth at the $4200 to fall low to $3800 in a very short time period.

you have pointed out an important point, in addition to manipulating the price.
Manipulation The market is flooded with many shitAltcoins, plus creating more shitStablecoins.
The market is now bearish with speculative speculation on BTC/USDT" or any other 1$ cryptos" and a lot of price manipulation.
Let's be realistic $ 19 was not a real price and the market is now growing healthy despite the previous crash.

crypto market is just highly manipulated right now, at the other hand crypto markets will have way more demand during financial crysis and such.

If in the future we see a series of devaluation in known currencies usd, euro and others you can be sure that crypto skyrockets then.

Nah, it's just the law of supply and demand.

There are no demand from the market and investors continue to sell-off their bitcoin causing a dramatic fall in the price. I guess that's pretty much sum's up what had happened for more than a year now. At least we're seeing some growth for the past week, a good indicator that demand is rising as the volume trading is almost $10 million already.

You know for now, the price of Bitcoin is slowly falling.
Bitcoin prices have dropped nearly 25% this year. If analyzed since December 2018 the price of Bitcoin is very low, last year until now, the price of Bitcoin has dropped 75%.
Bitcoin prices for the past half of the month were around 3,428 US dollars, for now the current Bitcoin exchange rate is around 4,185 US dollars.
I think that for this there are several main reasons why Bitcon prices and other digital currencies continue to plummet.
Factor:
1. Infrastructure in Unregulated Coin / Bitcoin Exchange Rates.
reason: this factor is caused by cryptocurrency trading, when Bitcoin transactions or transactions are minimal from the supervision of the form of regulation, which is known to be very strict, for this kind of thing provides an opportunity for investors to store shares freely against Bitcoin.

2. Regulator Factors.
Reason: this one factor boosts the value of Bitcoin et al, in the form of Initial Coin activities, it can be said that the initial offer of coins, similar to (IPO), is often done by companies in seeking money / capital.
iCO is likely to (startup) raise funds, without being involved by regulators. rate the ICO will violate the rules that there are securities that apply aka scam.

3. Managed by the Community, not by the Government.
Reason: Because it is beyond the responsibility of the government, crypto is managed by the community, meaning, in this case it is very vulnerable to weakening. Has a history, let's say Bitcoin was created in January 2009.

4. Alternative factors that are not real.
Reason: Bitcoin creators have a purpose and vision that Bitcoin is easier in instant payment transactions in each country, but doesn't have to bother with the exchange rates of currencies that vary from country to country.

I think this is a factor that has a huge effect on Bitcoin for now.
There may be other things that in the opinion of friends about the drop in Bitcoin, can share opinions here.
The purpose for those who are trading, investing, investors remain positive towards Bitcoin at this time.