Topic: Bitcoin fees and future (Read 341 times)

All these are basically just imaginary scenarios because I see no reason why a network basically created to make transactions with will suddenly be abandoned by the whole world only to test something fictional. The bitcoin network isn't dependent on fees if it were it would be impossible to broadcast a transaction without fees but that isn't the case.
Even if all coins get mined the network will still continue by creating new blocks that wouldn't have rewards since miners would now depend solely on fees.

In general, fees can be interpreted differently, especially when the network is congested but the network continues to run and if we look at the BTC system, it is identical to replacing the costs of traditional intermediaries with market-based incentives, not zero costs as you mean above, and network distribution. and one more thing may be common but this is the real fact that Bitcoin has a dynamic market cycle and never sleeps.

Logically, with same block size since Segwit upgrade in 2017, Bitcoin blocks will be more filled in future when there will be more Bitcoin users, more demands on on chain Bitcoin transactions in future. I expect to see future upgrades on Bitcoin scalability and block size will become bigger so that Bitcoin blockchain and blocks will be able to serve more transactions per block.

Bitcoin blockchain is lively if there are Bitcoin miners that provide hashrate as computational power to find new blocks including confirm Bitcoin transactions, and Bitcoin nodes (full nodes, prune nodes) to verify and pass it to other nodes.

Income of Bitcoin miners, if people understand correctly, is from two sources: Bitcoin block rewards that is halved every 210,000 blocks, and Bitcoin transaction fees by confirming Bitcoin transactions for Bitcoin users together with new blocks found.

Bitcoin transactions will definitely increase in the future, there is no question of it being silent in any way. Bitcoin miners will try hard to complete more transactions with their Bitcoin, so the amount of Bitcoin transactions will increase more in the future but will not decrease.
 Before 2140, there will be a lot of mystery in Bitcoin transactions and this will determine the type of income of miners on transaction fees. If there are no transactions, then their income will decrease completely, so they will be in difficulty, but their transaction volume will continue to grow in huge size and there will be enough opportunity to compensate them from this.
Because they will then receive the most and largest orders in their blocks than the desired amount of reward than now.

That is, Bitcoin opens up a lot of things due to which the matter goes too far and hence the original goal cannot be achieved.Despite the Bitcoin crash, its quality is so stable and good that everyone believes it will go up. The way it tastes right now because it has crashed 4- 5 times and even went to 90k$. But then he didn't give up and it still hovering around 97k$ and it only going to go up which will increase its value a lot.Obviously, if this is not the case, the benefits of Bitcoin are greatly reduce which is why many people even trade Bitcoin to get such things. This has to be addressed because it has a negative effect on other coins that we don't see much but will see over time which could cause all coins to go bad.

This scenario is likely to happen and there are indications that we are on this plan, as whales are working to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible to keep a small percentage of it available for popular circulation. Bitcoin in this case will become only a store of value and its use as a major payment system will decline. Moreover, all mining pools will have to obtain as much as possible to participate in mining after the transition from POW to POS, and thus the scarcity factor will be the only factor that determines BTC value.

Actually, this is not the first time being discussed about what will happen when all bitcoin are mined. To be honest, it won't crash the bitcoin right away if there's still transactions going on because miners doesn't get their rewards on the block alone but also from transaction fees. In my opinion, transaction fees are there so that when all bitcoins are mined then the miners still have a reward. Anyway, it's not like you're still alive on that year so you don't have to think about that at this moment because I am sure they will find a way to solve it.

It's a loop no one will leave. We know values depend on trust, and trust comes from security, which is the miner. If the miner is present, the system will be secured, and the value of Bitcoin will increase, allowing people to make transactions. After 2140, the miner will rely on transaction fees, and maybe in the future, if there are no block rewards, the transaction fees will be higher. So the point is that Bitcoin will never collapse, perhaps its value will increase(Bitcoin scarcity and decentralization trust) over time, and miners will be there after 2140 to verify the transactions and will be paid to cover their electricity bills and hardware costs.

You remember when a thread where someone from this forum bought pizza for 10k btc? That's was because it was available, the supply was low but the demand was not there yet but today, nobody will ever exchange 0.1 Bitcoin for Pizza because it is too expensive, it's scares now right but there is sats you know, number of sats make an amount of Bitcoin, I believe a time will come where sats will become relevant, people will used Satoshi to buy and sell Bitcoin so it wouldn't be an issue with scarcity but Bitcoin as whole will be scarce.

This thing might come faster than we think. Imagine that Microstrategy keeps buy and holding every Bitcoin they bought, Blackrock continue to do the same and then US finally agree to have Bitcoin reserve where they will be buying quarterly or yearly, the Bitcoin market is going to be crazy that no one will literally want to sell Bitcoin, even exchanges will come to a new terms to limit the amount of Bitcoin you can take out from their platform, it will be so scarce to buy.

[quote author=rodskee link=topic=5529407.msg65040081#msg65040081 date=1739014434
this will not happen though bitcoin is a currency that is used all over the world so i do not see a point in worrying about this
[/quote
At present, Bitcoin is a very valuable asset in the global market which is gaining popularity and usage of bitcoin all over the world. Bitcoin is not valid in the world as it is used around the world. 

Take this "too far" discussion to read some quality posts about Bitcoin.

How is the 21 Million Bitcoin Cap Defined and Enforced?
Can Bitcoin's Hard Cap of 21 Million Be Changed?
What Will Happen to Bitcoin After All 21 Million are Mined?

I agree with you that we all mostly will die in 2140 and it's not our concern too far in future when we will very likely no longer be alive. Rather than feeling uncertain and fearful about what will happen in 2140, I advice reading this The bullish case for Bitcoin and focus on what we can do to enrich our financial wealth.

You are thinking too far ahead. By 2140 you’ll be dead so it won’t be your problem. Bitcoin is a software. Whatever problems we might encounter in the future will be solved via updates. If btc was perfect from the start, there wouldn’t be any patches/updates but there are and there will be many others in the future. For example Segwit wasn’t present before 2017 If call that right. But then the circumstances demanded an update and the devs coded it. Stop listening to the doom sayers.

Ok, that makes sense, as above though I dont think it will come to that any time soon.

“Bitcoin Will Continue Its Path”

People have always questioned Bitcoin’s future. Some worry about what happens when block rewards end, when miners leave, or when the system allegedly “collapses.” But these concerns are nothing new—since 2010, the same discussions have been happening. Yet, Bitcoin is still here.

“Transaction Fees and the 2140 Question”

Many ask, “What happens when block rewards end in 2140?” The answer is simple: Bitcoin’s economy will evolve, not collapse.

One key principle people must understand is this: Bitcoin was never meant to be “free.” Transaction fees are essential because they secure the network. After 2140, miners will be compensated purely through transaction fees. Economic models evolve over time, and Bitcoin will do the same.

People who fear Bitcoin’s decline often overlook a crucial fact: this system is already established and functioning. If someone told you that gold would become worthless in 2140, would you believe them? Most likely not. Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” will retain value because the market will continue to recognize its importance.

“Miners Will Always Exist”

Some claim, “Miners will leave, and Bitcoin will die.” But this is flawed logic. If mining difficulty decreases, that simply creates an opportunity for new participants to enter the market.

The Bitcoin network is resilient. If some miners leave, difficulty adjusts, making it easier for others to step in. This self-regulating mechanism ensures that Bitcoin remains secure and functional.

“Psychological Perspective: Fear vs. Progress”

Bitcoin is not built on fear—it’s built on confidence and technological advancement. Fear-driven narratives about its collapse are nothing new. Every financial system in history has had doubters, yet value persists where there is demand.

Look at Bitcoin’s history:
        •   In 2011, when Mt. Gox collapsed, people said Bitcoin was dead.
   •   In 2013, when Silk Road was shut down, people said the same.
   •   In 2017, during internal conflicts, again, the same fears arose.

Yet Bitcoin is still here.

For those debating Bitcoin’s future, my advice is this: evaluate it with logic, not fear. If the system provides value, the market will recognize it. If changes are necessary, technology will adapt.

Bitcoin’s survival is not based on speculation—it’s based on the real need for a decentralized, trustless financial system.

If people find value in it, it will thrive. If they don’t, time will decide. But after 15 years, if Bitcoin hasn’t failed yet, it won’t fail tomorrow.

And one final thought:
“Bitcoin will either continue to thrive, or its principles will be absorbed into new systems that drive financial evolution. But the shift has already begun, and there’s no turning back.”

Or it becomes a primary store of value like gold, trading in specific ranges with opportunities for some altcoins whose price is determined by Bitcoin. When we reach that time, the price of Bitcoin will become more stable. What I mean is to apply the gold example to Bitcoin. Since gold is scarce and its storage and use are risky, it is traded in fiat currencies that represent a certain value of gold (theoretically). I m not saying this what will happen, I expect one of the possible scenarios.

I do not understand cryptography, I would imagine less than 5% of the users here do.  That said I do understand many basic principles when it comes to bitcoin and in large part thanks to this forum.  But most of all thanks to the Greek Freak, the undisputed greatest educator of bitcoin, a guy who spent years of his life giving bitcoin seminars for free simply because he cares so much about bringing power back to the people in every possible way, and this was a way to change the money/payment etc systems. 

Those asking questions like this, this is the place to do it, but also if you truly are interested and care about the underlying technologies of bitcoin, then watch every single thing you can of this mans work- https://www.youtube.com/@aantonop/videos

"The Man Who Changed Bitcoin Forever: Andreas Antonopoulos - Bitcoin’s Greatest Advocate!"- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMwjKnQ05Fs

Bitcoin is actually managed by three groups of people - miners, developers and holders. Bitcoin decentralization is simultaneously decentralization of coin mining, decentralization of development and decentralization of coin ownership.

It follows that globally, all three of these groups of people have common interests. If we assume that the further development of the first cryptocurrency will lead to the fact that it will be unprofitable for miners to maintain the security of the network, then I have no doubt that developers will come to the rescue. A hardfork will be made that will change the economy of the cryptocurrency so that all three management groups have the motivation to continue using the Bitcoin network.

We cannot look into the future a hundred years.

Therefore, we cannot say exactly what changes will be made to the Bitcoin code. However, I have no doubt that everything will be fine with Bitcoin.

Transaction fees will not drop. The contrary: the competition will be much higher than today, and that's why it is considered enough of a reward. If demand for transaction confirmation is high, while supply remains the same (4 MB block size), then the price for block space skyrockets.

If the mining difficulty reduces its a very appealing time for new miners to
start up because the hardware needed would be more affordable in order to
make a return.

Would it be right to say that the transaction fees would also drop which
could result in more movement of coins?

Anyway its really difficult to imagine Bitcoin transactions coming to a complete
stop, I can only see a constant trade and movement of Bitcoin and Satoshi's.

Long before 2140, miners' income will be mainly determined by transaction fees. If there are no transactions, their income will drastically decline, which will reduce difficulty. The bet is that transaction volume will be large enough to compensate them enough to keep their machines running. One thing is certain: In the transaction-fee era, a block reward will be orders of magnitude more volatile than it is today.

There will be solutions for this, technically and unit of bitcoin. With the expectation that Bitcoin value will grow up and price will increase more, 1 satoshi will have more value in $ with time, and new smaller units can be created and use for Bitcoin transaction fees.

Solutions like Lightning Network, Bitcoin side chains and something new can help Bitcoin technically.

Sidechain Observer - Bitcoin L2 Projects & current state of development
[Did you know?] Bitcoin Table of Units

This is absolutely true and logical. My question is about the possibility that Bitcoin will not be available to everyone due to the scarcity factor that will affect the supply in the market and the difficulty of making transactions due to the high transaction fees after the completion of mining the last Bitcoin. Can't we talk about the "death of Bitcoin" clinically as happens with humans? I read articles about these futuristic approaches and I find them really interesting because they pose the issues from a completely objective point of view. What do you think?

Bitcoin is the number one cryptocurrency and its market cap is similar to market cap of top companies. There is no way for such a popular thing to not experience transactions on chain but even if we imagine the scenario when nobody makes a transaction, then I can confidently tell you that there will be nobody to mine. It's impossible for everybody to mine and nobody to make transactions because both of these scenarios are the opposite of each events. If nobody makes transaction, then why will somebody mine something that's dead? And if everybody mines, then it automatically means that many people make transactions.
The whole point of Bitcoin is not 0 fee, if it was, then there wouldn't be a fee system. After 2140 there will be no reward but Bitcoin will be so popular at that time that there will be millions of transactions every day and that will be enough to motivate miners to keep their mining rigs turned on.

That will be more serious than negative mining revenue that usually causes Mining Capitulation. With transactions, transaction fees and Bitcoin block subsidy, Bitcoin miners that have weak fund for their mining business have to shut down their ASICs and capitulate from Bitcoin network when mining is not profitable.

When Bitcoin network has no transactions, that means there will be no new block found in my opinion, because return to time when there were only Bitcoin block subsidy and no other transactions like years ago, is very impossible IMO.

Bitcoin hash ribbon indicator and capitulation.
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/hash-ribbons/

if there was no transactions in the bitcoin network the network will not collapse immediately most likely some miners are going to want to stick around for a bit and keep the network secure there will still be profits from that but it would not be as attractive anymore which may eventually lead to miners opting out of mining bitcoin this would not immediately make bitcoin crash though because the system is built in a way that mining difficulty will go down so that the remaining ones can still work efficiently and earn a little bit of profit

this will not happen though bitcoin is a currency that is used all over the world so i do not see a point in worrying about this

Satoshi Nakamoto said this years ago too in What's with this odd generation?.

If Bitcoin blockchain is alive and there is transaction volume, there is consequently transaction fee for Bitcoin miners.
Bitcoin blockchain is Proof of Work, and Bitcoin miners keep mining if they get positive income after deduction of input cost, through Bitcoin block subsidy and transaction fees.

Bitcoin will be very expensive because the miners only earn through solving the cryptography, run ASICs requires electricity cost, initial investment to buy the hardware and maintenance the hardware. If the miners didn't earn enough to cover the money they spent, they might leave it, just like solo miners who have left Bitcoin.

But, 2140 is really long to go, the recent problem is we don't even know what will happen with Bitcoin after centralized institutions own most of Bitcoin and tightening the rules about Bitcoin.

If no one spent money there would be no purpose for money!

It's still decentralized, as anyone can become one of these nodes, just not every single user. The developers actually stripped out the ability to easily turn on mining from the base wallet software back in 2011: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/pull-remove-gui-generate-coins-option-5353

And with the dominance of asics (special type of chip that mines faster than cpu's or gpu's found in typical computer's) there is no point in attempting to mine unless you buy specialized hardware.

There's some intresting stuffs about fees eventually getting too small to incentivise miners: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_Commons

It seems there is a link between fees and security of the system, which may be impact the fees level.

Senders already must include fees to get a transaction added to the ledger quickly. These fees go to the miners/maintainers. The amount of those fees is function of supply and demand between people creating transaction and miners/maintainers. Those fees will be the sole incentive after new money stops being created, which will be reduced gradually over time not suddenly.

firstly the normal blockreward is sufficient to cover miners for a few cycles(halving periods) before fee's become meaningful(say 2040+)
so no real need of a fee war to force people to pay more right now to feed the miners

however by the time we hit year 2100 the normal blockreward would be so small, no one would care because fee's will be the significant portion by then anyways
no one will even think or discuss the blockreward in 2140 as all discussion way before then would be about fees

also by then (reminder we are talking about 75 years from now) the bitcoin blockchain and basically all electronic tech would have evolved to allow more data per 10min to not be limited to just a few mb per 10min(we already can surpass 4mb safely right now if dev-politics was not in the way(hint: not a technical barrier, just a dev-political barrier))

so its not going to be a situation in 75 year of only ~3000tx per block having to pay $1000 worth of sats per tx to cover a $3m block cost, but instead we would and should have scaled the space for many many many more transactions per block by then, so each transaction pays very little per transaction to still be a popular value transfer network

remember just 25 years ago kodak was arguing 1megabyte flashmemory was going to be too expensive to be consumer practical.. now we have terrabyte+ flash memory

The point of bitcoin has never been no fees.

Anyway, if there are no transactions, then Bitcoin is dead.

So when mining we actually calculating other people transactions. What if everone just mining and nobody make transactions? The whole point of bitcoin is that it has no fees if you use professional mode wont that defeat the purpose of not having a central computer? And after 2140 there will be no reward to maintain the network then why would anyone bother doing it? Would the people investing money into these servers not just quit right away causing the whole system to collapse and the value of money be completely lost?