Topic: Bitcoin hashrate reached a new record (Read 209 times)

Or there's the more obvious fact that the hash rate reported is random.

Block finding is a Poisson distributed random event.

Thus 'luck' affects the hash rate calculation.
Even the 2 weekly diff change is not a highly accurate estimate of the network hash rate.

No one knows the Bitcoin network hash rate.
They can only estimate it from the rate at which blocks are found.
That estimate is inaccurate.

Using 250 blocks to estimate the hash rate has a 42% chance of being more than 5% inaccurate
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5307087

Alas, not everyone can do this, since you can't get miners for 6 months ...

I started believing that there is actually a relevance between Bitcoin hashrate and the price. Because I can't find another thing to explain why the hashrate is directly proportionate to the price most of the time. I will continue to observe it again when the BTC price comes down sharply or goes up to a much higher level.

I believe the high price of BTC is pushing the rise in Altcoins since average folks are less likely to buy BTC to trade with.  Also, the ease of transaction of some verses BTC is evident. 

big mining farms never sell on public exchanges.. they dont sell regularly dependant on daily whims of the market price..

they play the long game. they are planning 6 months ahead.. buying factory leases and doing year long contracts for 'excess' electricity contracts.
when they sell they sell via OTC in large baskets.

they do not penny feed the markets every 10 minutes..

the home hobby miners on the other hand. do react more.
when the price is high. they mine to sell.. when the price is low they buy to hold

Yes, there is actually not a direct relationship between Bitcoin price and the hashrate. But we've seen so many times that hashrate increased when the price also increased and vice versa. It's really interesting to see this even though there is no such relation.

If miners aren't selling, hedge funds and companies like Tesla are buying, then who is selling?
We should be climbing higher but we are staying in pretty much the same level we were since early March.

This is great news again but I hope it influences the price because miners hoarding should mean coins that aren't available for buying which means less supply. If the demand remains high and supply is getting low, the price should explode. If it doesn't maybe the demand isn't as high as we are told, or most miners aren't really hoarding.

I have no doubts about bitcoin just feel like some of these articles are trying to push bullishness down our throats.

brew master. that is not quite true

if everyone could mine gold in their back yard cheaper than buying gold.. would they mine or buy..
(answer:mine)

at the moment no one would stupidly buy bitcoin over $72k because everyone on the planet can mine for cheaper then that.. even germany

whilst miners make a profit they will mine and then sell
when miners cant profit from mining. they will buy it when its cheap

the buy and sell pressure cause prices to change

yes there is a bit of emotional illogical speculation causing some volatility spikes and dips.. but these spikes and dips of illogical speculation are temporary and correct themselves.

if you can loook at the math of mining costs and work out the % at which level.
if you can work out the realized value of utxo. you can then work out the 'correction' levels .. and also work out the paper and lower bounds of value

for instance
$21k is the bottom level where no miner would min to sell. they wont make profit selling at $21k so they will hoard.
other miners at higher costs would have already given p and just went on a buying frenzy.
this makes $21k a good underline support (the new zero)

.. at the top end no one would buy bitcoin above $72k supportively. because they can just mine the heck out of it cheaper supportively

as for the active coin traders of the last 6 months.. majority wont sell below $37k

so you have a upper limit of buy support at $72k (anything above that would be stupid illogical nonsense speculation(not supported))
then you have a medium resistance sell of $37k slowing down any large threat of a large crash. and $21k as the ultimate hard limit bottom support that would not sell.

..
yes illogical hype speculators that react by emotion and illogic can make small adjustments and movements but these are just temporary waves

if you think the full depth of the market is just illogical emotional hype speculators. then it seems your the one thats following highschool level economics

this is a narrative that some "newbie speculators" have been trying to push possibly out of desperation to find any reason to predict bitcoin price.

take yourself for example. if you have money and believe that bitcoin has potential to rise then you would buy bitcoin. however you will never look at hashrate to see what it is to decide whether you should buy or not, doin otherwise makes no sense.
take a miner now. the miner looks at bitcoin price and the profit he is making and decides whether to buy more ASICs to mine bitcoin hence increasing the hashrate or shut down his ASICs due to lower bitcoin price hence decreasing the hashrate.

so it should be obvious that hashrate follows price not the other way around.

but you have to realise WHO increases what.. what causes what
if 99% are making profit. thats alot of sell pressure and not much buy pressure
only those with high costs of mining will see good value in buying
take germany with a current cost of mining way above $70k. they wont mine at home. they would prefer to save themselves ~$13k+ a coin and just buy it at $59k

in short
uk/us/china/iceland could happily sell as they can happily mine for profit
japan/italy are in a limbo between profit and loss
denmark, germany, portugal could happily buy as they see market price cheaper than mining cost

..
if hashrate increases. less will profit as the coins splits leave them with less due to more sharing out.
this increases their costs and makes more jump off mining and just buy..
or for the farms.. buy more while mining to support a price increase to keep their mining in profit

Price related or not, I think this is another positive piece of news. If no one was interested in Bitcoin, the hashrate would be 0, on the contrary, with this hashrate we can rely on the security of the Bitcoin network. I bet we will continue to see price and hashrate increases for years to come.

So, you mean there is a relation between the price and hashrate?
I believe the same way but according to this theory, time after time and by increasing the price of bitcoin there will be more willing to mine, right?

hashrate has some relevance

some countries whos electric is like 27c/kwh wont mine when price is below $55k as the cost of mining is more expensive than just buying btc

so when the price exceeds $55k places like italy start hobby mining from home as its cheaper to mine than to buy

anyway heres some numbers
including a upfront hardware cost of ~$15k/btc(balanced over a 9 month ROI/upgrade plan)
electric cost is ~$1.5k per unit-cent increment
1cent = $16.5k
2cent = $18k
3cent =$19.5k
4cent = $21k  (china/iceland cheapest mining farm(industrial rate))
....
8cent = $27k (china home hobby miner(domestic rate))
....
12cent=$33k (UK mining farm(industrial rate))
...
15cent=$37.5k (US home hobby miner(domestic rate))
...
24cent=$51k(UK home hobby mining)
....
27cent=$55.5k (italy home hobby miners (domestic rate))
...
29cent=$58.5k (japan home hobby miner(domestic rate))

what you find out is that belgium, germany, denmark, portugul are not home hobby mining right now and instead are buying coin. its not cheaper to mine for bitcoin(their costs are over $60k)

japan was not home hobby mining at $55k but is not mining at $59k as it slipped passed the threshold of profitabiity

..
what you will find is that germany is the most expensive domestic electric rate on the planet (38 cent) and so germany value bitcoin at max of $72k cost if mining. and so willing to buy it whilst its cheaper than that

..
as the price goes up less wiling to buy as cheaper to mine.
as the price goes down more wiling to buy and not mine

According to CryptoQuant data, the bitcoin hash rate reached a new record of 179.4 EH/s today.
The event coincided with the price of Bitcoin reaching its second daily high of $ 59,101.
Even though there is no direct relationship between price and hash rate, some experts like Max Keiser (broadcaster) believe that price tends to follow hash rate.
CryptoQuant CEO says miners continue to collect bitcoins and do not intend to cash out their deposits:
"Network fundamentals are getting stronger, and those who make the network strong don't cash out Bitcoins to buy new mining rigs. They buy mining rigs with cash, not Bitcoin."

Source: https://u.today/bitcoin-hashrate-prints-new-all-time-high