Bitcoin Historical Corrections - Don't worry

Saidasun

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Quote from: Barinekapaul on July 19, 2021, 10:49:28 AM

One hope we should have regarding the fall and from the chat is that;
1. This is the price of bitcoin has always been on the increase and the fall was almost half, implying that
a. There will be a greater rise when it comes back again.
b. It will turn all the (-) to a (+) one as soon as it goes up.
2. Every time it falls almost to half, there is always higher increase as seen from
a. 2018-2021.

So all hope should be kept intact and going.

It does not imply anything just because Bitcoin has historically goes up does not mean it will continue to do so for the rest of its lifespan as much as I love Bitcoin we have to admit that there is probably a price ceiling that we will hit eventually and this advise would be wrong and dangerous for new investors. I am not saying we have already hit that ceiling probably far from it but it has to be kept in mind.

Barinekapaul

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One hope we should have regarding the fall and from the chat is that;
1. This is the price of bitcoin has always been on the increase and the fall was almost half, implying that
a. There will be a greater rise when it comes back again.
b. It will turn all the (-) to a (+) one as soon as it goes up.
2. Every time it falls almost to half, there is always higher increase as seen from
a. 2018-2021.

So all hope should be kept intact and going.

tranthidung

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Quote from: iTradeChips on July 19, 2021, 10:22:46 AM

The only thing I know is that many in our crypto community trusts Bitcoin so much they don't really talk about the dip but rather they always talk about what possibilities Bitcoin may bring in the future. These historical corrections will not really cause any panic among hard line Bitcoin supporters but rather to them it is a proof that Bitcoin can reach greater heights and all they need to do is to continue in investing in the said cryptocurrency.

We are in discount [1] and in invalidated area of the model [2]
Check the fractal 2013 [3]

If people are aware of Marco support or VPVR or Wallet Cohorts, and have patience, they can prepare for accumulation. [4]

[1] Bitcoin S2F model price vs actual (upper, lower bands)
[2] PlanB's opinion on S2F model and weak-downs
[3] 2013 and 2021 consolidations
[4] Macro supports, Significant on-chain volume nodes

iTradeChips

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The only thing I know is that many in our crypto community trusts Bitcoin so much they don't really talk about the dip but rather they always talk about what possibilities Bitcoin may bring in the future. These historical corrections will not really cause any panic among hard line Bitcoin supporters but rather to them it is a proof that Bitcoin can reach greater heights and all they need to do is to continue in investing in the said cryptocurrency.

Magicalking

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Looks like bitcoin is recovering. We might not reach $100k this year, the energy has died down within the past month. Bitcoin maximalists are still bullish regardless

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Last week is for cleaning the market. Gamblers were killed and the market in the next couple of weeks will have good rally. It would be different than the V-shaped rally in March 2020. I am sure that it would be different.

Glassnode pointed out the deleveraging actions on markets have bring the open interest in Future market back to the February level. It is good for a new bull run in next few months. Weak hands exit and gamblers were killed, the market will be fueled gradually and take off months later.

Quote

This weeks correction has resulted in a substantial deleveraging of futures markets.

Over $7.5B in #Bitcoin open interest was cleared within a few hours, bringing total open interest back to levels last seen in early February.

Live chart

https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1395771367958581251

mk4

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Quote from: bitmover on May 22, 2021, 07:40:27 AM

This post is not about bullishness, although you can see I am bullish in long term. This is about volatility.

Many people are worried about -10%, -30%, -50%. This is a very common situation, as the image above show. The charts shows it may not be over (we may face -80% ??), and it will probably happen again in a few months/years.

I get what you mean. People are unnecessarily scared and worried about these drops, thinking that Bitcoin is done or whatever, and the data you've shown is simply proof that chances are, it's going to bounce back higher in the future. It's just that people might take it as something guaranteed to happen, which is definitely not.

sapnu

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Considering the pattern shown by the OP, we'll see more clearly why we shouldn't worry about the bearish market we are currently experiencing. Instead of worrying, why not take advantage of the market's bearish season. Always make sure that even there are loopholes or troubles that are occuring in the market, you find a way on how you can benefit from it or take advantage from it. A lot of people miss out on this, they prioritized worrying first instead of finding a way on how they can profit from still regardless of the situation.

bitmover

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Quote from: mk4 on May 21, 2021, 10:45:57 PM

Just to balance out the bullishness and just to add a little bit of reality: while there's literally no reason for us to not believe that bitcoin would go back up, let's not forget that past performance may not be indicative of future results. There are zero guarantees when it comes to investments.

And yes, I'm a huge bitcoin bull.

This post is not about bullishness, although you can see I am bullish in long term. This is about volatility.

Many people are worried about -10%, -30%, -50%. This is a very common situation, as the image above show. The charts shows it may not be over (we may face -80% ??), and it will probably happen again in a few months/years.

Quote from: Daniel91 on May 22, 2021, 05:06:04 AM

Don't worry guys, everything will be fine, just hold or even buy btc, now is perfect time when btc is so cheap.

Looks like a good entry point if you are investing for long term.

I see many people waiting for the price to go down, so they can buy. But when the price goes down a lot of bad news pop up as well. This is the time to be brave, not in the bull run.

As people say "buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own".

Husires

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The above info-graphic are misleading and contain a lot of inaccurate information.
First, what happened yesterday is not a Corrections but rather Crash as the chart has merged between crash and collapse, which happens every four years and leads to a bear market, something that must be removed from the above plan.

Read more bout Correction VS Crash

Quote

In a correction, the 10% decline will manifest over days, weeks, or months. In a stock market crash, the 10% price drop occurs in just one day. These crashes can lead to a bear market, which is when the market falls another 10% for a total decline of 20% or more.

The correction period is not accurate, and therefore the information about it is not correct. Some corrections were made for more than a month, and some corrections lasted for a longer or shorter period.

Clarifying the correction with a fixed period of time will give us a better comparison of the rate of decline.

This means we have 3 BIG crash:

2013: first halving
2017: second halving
2020: Covid-19

and some other small correction.

Gozie51

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The chart is well explanatory about the movement of bitcoin,
It's rise and fall. I studied the chart to realise that this dispensasion is different in performance for both rise and fall, bottom and top. The halving is shooting progress for bitcoin because it performance is better compared to last halving and because it also introduced institutional investors who are hodling despite fud.

From the chart, in
Jun 26, 2019 - Mar 12, 2020 , it's high $12,867
it's low $5,040

Apr 14, 2021 - May 17, 2021 , it's high $64,706
it's low $31, 663

Looking at this two columns, I believe that the entering of institutional traders have helped the last two years to high adoption rate and I don't expect a fall as the rate it happened anyways in 2018.

examplens

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Rising Bitcoin value in 2021 brings a lot of new small and middle investors, which caused even higher growth. I even think anything over 50k was excessive at the moment. First serious correction ^{this time challenged by Elon's tweets and China stuff} caused panic in newcomers and I guess many of them want to leave their position and save his money.
I guess no one of the older experienced Bitcoiners doesn't panic right now. (he can only be unhappy if he had planned something, like me Huh

)

Lucius

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Of course there have been a lot of corrections throughout the very short history of BTC, but hardly anything can calm people who are losing their money - because something they bought for $50k or maybe even over $60k is now not worth even $40k. But it is always a problem with those who cannot see the bigger picture and in a panic cause financial losses to themselves, while the same people always get richer and richer.

If we consider that 2017 is a similar year to 2021 (both come after halving), then it is interesting to see all the corrections we had in 2017. In May 2017, in just 3 days, the price dropped by 33%, and in June even more (39%). September and November brought two more corrections (40% & 30%), followed by a big pump towards $20k.

Source

I would not say that people should not worry, but I would advise them not to invest in something they do not understand, and I would dare to say that at least 80% of those who invest in BTC are not even aware of what it is about.

Daniel91

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Great image bitmover, thank you for sharing.
I think all the older members on this forum have already experienced such big drops in bitcoin and are not afraid of some long-term bad scenario.
I guess there was more panic among younger btc investors who don't have much experience with bitcoin yet.
The experience from 2018 taught me that the smartest strategy is always to wait patiently for a change of trend and not to sell bitcoin in a panic.
Don't worry guys, everything will be fine, just hold or even buy btc, now is perfect time when btc is so cheap.

decodx

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Quote from: mk4 on May 21, 2021, 10:45:57 PM

Just to balance out the bullishness and just to add a little bit of reality: while there's literally no reason for us to not believe that bitcoin would go back up, let's not forget that past performance may not be indicative of future results. There are zero guarantees when it comes to investments.

And yes, I'm a huge bitcoin bull.

By this infographic, it is evident that there is still a lot of room to go down. This is not necessarily a sign the correction is over.

And yes, I’m a bitcoin bull, too.

Coyster

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Quote from: cryptoaddictchie on May 22, 2021, 01:45:24 AM

I'm not western, but China did there is totally bull shit. If I knew, they are just skimming a plot to let the market down for a while so they can enter at a bargain price. Good acting on their part to include bitcoin miners.

I don't think China were thinking of what the Bitcoin price will be or scheming to get Bitcoin at a cheaper price, from my understanding, the Chinese are the front-runners for the use of CBDC's (the digital Yuan), thus I tend to attribute any negative decision or sanctions about any other crypto on that, they prolly will want their CBDC to thrive as the only digital coin in China, but the thing is whichever reason, it's not of great importance to Bitcoin in the long period, people will still make use of BTC via P2p, and I think governments get it wrong as the success of centralized digital currencies has nothing to do with Bitcoin, which is dex.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: mk4 on May 21, 2021, 10:45:57 PM

Just to balance out the bullishness and just to add a little bit of reality: while there's literally no reason for us to not believe that bitcoin would go back up, let's not forget that past performance may not be indicative of future results. There are zero guarantees when it comes to investments.

And yes, I'm a huge bitcoin bull.

This forum, or any other Bitcoin community is not a good place to get trading advice, because it will always be the same "buy and hodl, never sale, wait for some arbitrary huge price, etc.". Few people want to admit the possibility of a bear market, it's always "just a dip". It's easy to say these things when you got into BTC years ago and will never be in red ever again, but those who joined this market recently can be in a very bad spot, they could be one big candle away from turning unrealized profit into unrealized loss. Some were probably not ready to a possibility of losings tens of percents in a few days. Selling now is an option that some holders should carefully consider now, there's nothing wrong with that. It's not an objectively bad decision.

cryptoaddictchie

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Quote from: bitmover on May 21, 2021, 09:09:45 PM

As we can see, China banned bitcoin many times already. I believe there is a lot of misinformation about China news, as most western people do not understand Chinese very well.

I'm not western, but China did there is totally bull shit. If I knew, they are just skimming a plot to let the market down for a while so they can enter at a bargain price. Good acting on their part to include bitcoin miners.

Thanks for the charts this make me somehow feel ease that these dump is just a challenge, and experience worse before. Retailers should not fell on this China Scheme.

pooya87

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The important message here is try not to become food for the whales!

P.S. I don't like that picture you posted because it is reducing a very complicated market behavior to just being about news. For example we all know that the 2018 drop (-83.6%) had nothing to do with that news. It was simply because we were in a bubble that needed to burst and bubble bursts always lead to catastrophic big and long bear markets.
Most people may not know but the rest are the same. For example the 2013 drop (-86.9%) wasn't because of that news, it was because of a similar-to-2017 bubble. Same with everything else.
While news can disrupt the market (eg. Elon's FUD) it can not cause the drop, not all of it anyways. As I said at the start these are very complicated market behaviors with lots of factors involved.

mk4

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Just to balance out the bullishness and just to add a little bit of reality: while there's literally no reason for us to not believe that bitcoin would go back up, let's not forget that past performance may not be indicative of future results. There are zero guarantees when it comes to investments.

And yes, I'm a huge bitcoin bull.

SquirrelJulietGarden

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Quote from: bitmover on May 21, 2021, 09:09:45 PM

As we can see, China banned bitcoin many times already. I believe there is a lot of misinformation about China news, as most western people do not understand Chinese very well.

People are too blindly believing in news.

Two sides of a coin.
Do China ever accept bitcoin?
If China accepted bitcoin, ok they can ban bitcoin with their changes in policies.
If China have never accept bitcoin, what do you think with the news like that Since today China ban bitcoin.

https://www.techinasia.com/timeline-history-bitcoin-china-2013
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/11/bitcoin-price-falls-on-reports-that-china-is-closing-local-exchanges.html
https://www.investopedia.com/news/bitcoin-banned-china/

2020 Saw the Fewest Bitcoin ‘Obituaries’ in 8 Years
Bitcoin Obituaries Stats

Fortunately, the market will have another Xi-pump as same as 2019 Xi-pump.
After Xi, China’s Central Bank Gives Blockchain Tech a Pump. Don't believe in what China says or news you read, look at what their government do
China Reiterates Crypto Bans From 2013 and 2017 then they will reiterate the Xi-pump.

bitmover

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One image that contains all information you need:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/bitcoin-historical-corrections-from-all-time-highs/

Are you are worried about -50%? Well, we have all see this before.

This is a huge drop, but it is a common volatility in bitcoin price. A year ago we saw a worse crash, due to COVID-19 crisis.

More crashes like that will come in the future. I believe this is a normal volatility for an asset which nobody knows how much it will be worth in the future. it hasn't been well priced yet.

The worse crash of all was Mt Gox, nearly 87% down!!!!

But bitcoin recovered from all those crashes, just to be back stronger.

As we can see, China banned bitcoin many times already. I believe there is a lot of misinformation about China news, as most western people do not understand Chinese very well.

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