Some economic experts says with the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, we can expect a Bitcoin price of $100 000+ ...but I think that is just speculation. The last time when we had the "perfect" storm, with everything going according to plan, the Bitcoin price only went to $60 000+... so why would the Spot ETF have such a huge influence on the price?
We should guard against over optimism ....and rather opt for a lower prediction to protect people from disappointment, because their expectation would be set too high.
Well, over $100k is easily coming this market cycle even without an ETF. It would be extremely bizarre if Bitcoin didn't easily surpass $100k in the 2024/25 bull run, like something truly terrible would have to happen to cause that.
The last market cycle peak was $69k. Bitcoin goes much higher each cycle. It doesn't go back to the same peak as the last cycle. Bitcoin grows over time. The past few peaks have been $1150, $20k, $69k. Notice how it goes up a lot each time. You're confusing effects of an ETF with just the natural growth of Bitcoin. An ETF will have a big impact on Bitcoin's price, but that has nothing to do with why Bitcoin will go a lot higher than $69k.
Also not sure why you think there was a perfect storm that sent Bitcoin to over $60k in 2021. That was actually a pretty bad bull run and lots of stuff went wrong. It was sorta the opposite of a perfect storm haha. Even 2017 which 20x'd that year and 100x'd from the bottom of that market cycle wasn't a perfect storm as there was the whole segwit/forking/bch drama in the middle of the bull run.
In 2021 the market crashed in the middle of the bull run and then it took all the remaining momentum of the bull market the rest of the year to stop the crash and bring it all the way back up and a bit higher. Without the issues that happened in 2021 Bitcoin likely would have passed $100k back then. Now Bitcoin is much bigger (as is the case every succeeding market cycle) so $69k is not impressive this time around, just as $20k was not impressive in 2021, and $1150 was not impressive in 2017.
Without an ETF we are probably looking at $130k-$150k or thereabouts (assuming there aren't any big issues like we had in 2021). Biggest chance of big issues this cycle is probably from governments like if the SEC tries to make a bunch of trouble to disrupt the bull run. But with an ETF I think that probably gives Bitcoin a good chance to hit a $150k-$170k peak this time around. I am not at all convinced an ETF is coming anytime in the next few years, so I'm thinking more along the lines of Bitcoin doubling to around $140k give or take $10k or so. Personally I'm playing it conservative and assuming it'll only go to like $130k.
You should learn more about Bitcoin, learn about its history, its growth, how the market cycles work, and so on. Your statements suggest that you don't understand that Bitcoin is growing massively every four years. Just think about this - at this point in the market cycle last time bitcoin was somewhere around $7k-$10k, now its at $40k. That fact alone should make clear to you why everyone expects prices much much higher than $69k in 2025, and it has nothing to do with an ETF.
But yes we should guard against overoptimism. For example some people last cycle expected Bitcoin to go to $300k in 2021. They just assumed Bitcoin would keep growing at the same pace and they forgot about diminishing returns as anything grows larger. This time I'm sure there are people who think it'll go to $300k in 2025 and again that is hopelessly overly optimistic. $300k would be a great target for the 2029 bull run (perhaps even a bit lower like $250k), not the 2025 bull run. But the opposite of over-optismism would be your statement of not understanding why the price would be larger than four years ago after four years of growth for Bitcoin.