Topic: Bitcoin hyperadoption is inevitable if you understand game theory. (Read 1855 times)

This really struck a chord. 
I guess a lot of people bought bitcoins to buy drugs off the internet during the initial days. This will be a very small part of Bitcoin going forward.

No not Buffett, the OP.

Buffett?  I think it's more like 65 billion dollars.

This is the same guy who says his total assets are worth $3,600. Totally sounds like a successful person to listen to about the future of money.

Sure there is.  The clone doesn't have an artificially inflated price.  Or, you know, just for lel, to send bitcoin hodlers to the poorhouse.  We're not talking much money here - bitcoin's entire market cap is pocket change for guys like Buffett.  He's old, and I hear you can't take it with you.
 

No, actually.  All the interconnections are identical to bitcoin V1.0 sorry, forgot, still in beta.  Make that 0.10.0rc1.  The software already tests for invalid transactions.

Not talking about venture capital. There already exist services, applications, that are being used. A lot of them open source. And Bitcoin has by far the most.

> How could replacing bitcoin be difficoult?
> Nah.  Everything built on top of bitcoin works just fine with a clone (bitcoin with different genesis block).

If it's just a clone, there is not even a reason *to* swap it out. (The clone with the most use has the most value. Bitcoin.) It may be easy to do, but it's far from zero work. Difficulty can also come in the interconnectedness of other services... If your service relies on the API of another service. This doesn't get swapped out over night.

Sure, there are no guarantees. I have owned some of the more interesting altcoins in the past.

How could replacing bitcoin be difficoult? All coins use almost the same wallett!

Nah.  Everything built on top of bitcoin works just fine with a clone (bitcoin with different genesis block).
The biggest investment in bitcoin to date is ASICs/miners, and those can be pointed at any SHA256 alt.
But sure, people built shit for/on top of AOL.

The venture capital money invested in bitcoin companies, infrastructure etc is not a guarantee of anything. Venture capital investments are by definition something can fail miserably.

I am sure you guys are familiar with the dotcom bubble related failures.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble#Aftermath

Did developers build large numbers of services and infrastructure on top of AOL?

Building stuff on top of Bitcoin makes it hard to be replaced, even if it isn't the best system.

In other words you really have no clue what game theory actually is.

More delusions?

Still comparing BTC to the internet? No, y'all pumpers got the analogy wrong. Bitcoin is more like the AOL of money, not the internet of money.

Also, the concept of an open distributed public ledger has potential. BTC blockchain and bitcoin the currency in their current form, don't.

This thread.  Not even wrong.

On Myspace Vs Facebook:

Imagine if Myspace had been open source, controlled by everyone, people able to run their own pieces of the Myspace infrastructure, and build any amount of tech and apps of their own design upon it.

I don't think Facebook would have taken over in that case. (Or, if Facebook provides actual better features, it could have been a Myspace "app"....)

Anyone could invent a new email or http protocol/version too. It's not complex. But hasn't really happened.

The one key difference with Bitcoin is the great financial incentive that exists to create a winning clone. This is the wild card. But, I think most typical users are probably not going to be speculating in such a way. So there will be small booms and busts of competing cryptos among the crypto fanatics, but there may also be the one crypto that gains mass adoption with the average person...

And there is also the simple fact that the longest lived crypto is likely going to be the most useful as a safe (well tested + debugged) store of value.

Is cryptocurrency going to be *huge*? I think so.
Is that cryptocurrency going to be Bitcoin? So far it has been, and I don't see any compelling reasons why this will change.

Go on I'll bite, what is bitcoin billionaire? On android or iTunes?

"2,000 Americans surveyed about Bitcoin showed 42% of young respondents indicating they believe Bitcoin is a lasting currency. " 
 
And that was in March.  We haven't even felt the effects of that stupidly addictive 'Bitcoin Billionaire' app yet. 
 
http://bitcorati.com/2014/03/23/bitcoin-tipping-point-mass-adoption/ 
 
I wish I had bought a shit load of coins in 2010... everyone who didn't at least mine some feels that way.  But that's ok.  Because I don't want to be the one in 2020 who doesn't have a choice anymore who says, "Why didn't I buy in 2014???" 
 
I'm with you brother.

Yeah, there are threads on here from 2010 where people are complaining about having "missed the boat", since they were "only" able to mine 600-700 bitcoins before GPU rigs became a thing.

Bottom line is that human perspective and natural intuition work against us sometimes, especially when an exponential phenomenon is involved. We see something expand 10x, 100x, 1000x, and think that it's "too much".... That is, if you don't actually do the math.

As far as bitcoin goes, people who actually sit down and do the math come to the conclusion that if bitcoin is successful, it'll have to be worth $10,000+. And if it fails, it'll be worth close to $0 (or exactly $0). Getting in at $3, $30, or $300 all yield a phenomenal return in the success case. So then the entire game is determining the probabilities of the success and fail cases. At $300/BTC, you more or less have to think there's a >97% chance of failure for owning bitcoin to not be positive-expectation.

i think its a bit naive to fully discount a new crypto overtaking BTC, or BTC 2.0 for that matter. It is still in its adoption infancy stage, next 4-5 years will underline its strengths and weaknesses and who's to say that BTC wont face a crisis (mining is a problematic area for instance). I think you are correct, p2p decentralized trust is here to stay, THAT's the big innovation, and even though I hope that BTC will evolve and hold, it just cant be said with 100% confidence

Wow you don't understand game theory at all.  You need a set of rules.  Thats why its called GAME theory.  You need to know number of players rules and outcomes

Predicting success of iphone or Google can't be done using game theory.

Thank you for being so honest! I think you have exposed the mindset of a lot of the haters on this forum... let's hope they come around someday, but I don't worry; there's plenty of time for them to learn. Bitcoin will be here for a very long time.

While everyone has been crying about the price; the network has been growing and it will take something very innovative to defeat it.

 
That was my mistake.  I watched bitcoins explode in their 2013/14 bubble and inwardly thought, "Damn.  I missed that boat.  I wish I hadn't of dismissed those things when I heard about them in 2011..." 
 
But on the outside I hated... and tried to poke holes in the protocol and the idea... but the longer I did, the more I learned and realized that I was wrong.  Bitcoin is one of the greatest technological advances in the history of mankind. 
 
And now, seeing the price crash so low has made me a believer with a time-sensitive passion.  I have seen this before.  In my years on the stock market I have seen the dark nights before the dawn, and I now recognize the patterns involved. 
 
The fear and worry don't phase me.  If bitcoins dropped to $50, I'd just buy more.  Because this is more powerful than any stock.  The deflationary nature is downright explosive as a store of value, and anything less than moon is cheap as long as the faith in the protocol is increasing.

 
 
Ahh, you are wrong. 
 
Game Theory, especially in mass involves predicting the movements of the masses before they are able to understand it themselves.  You have to analyze WHY a lemming would do something, and get there first.  Those who saw this pattern with Google, the original iPhone, Netflix, etc etc etc made tremendous amounts of money. 
 
Bitcoin is the same.  It's something the common man desperately needs, but doesn't realize it yet.  The winning move is to heavily attack it, early. 
 
In poker (another bastion of game theory), there are four play styles but only tight and aggressive wins.  Investing and successful speculation are no different.  You hold your chips tightly (don't bet on every single opportunity) but when a good opportunity comes, you ATTACK it hard (i.e. bitcoin). 
 
As for bitcoin not being the winner of the crypto battles, you fail to understand the value of the blockchain and established brand.  This isn't an issue of MySpace and dodos... this is an issue of why an Internet 2.0 never took off. 
 
bitcoin has the largest and longest ledger.  It has the largest market cap.  Those things won't be uprooted, and I think at this point even those in power can't do it.  It's like a super virus that will keep mutating, similar to how torrents and the pirate bay can't be shut down effectively. 

bitcoin has alot of advantage as the first mover with its network effect but i would not say it is inevitable that bitcoin will be adopted from the mass.
( i'm actually more and more inclined to say that bitcoin (probaly) will be adopted by the richer part of society)
blockchaintech though will definitely be adopted in transaction and consesus systems.

Welcome and thanks for your post. I too believe that bitcoin is the future of the financial industry and I am happy to be apart of the process so early on.

OP has nothing to do w game theory.

Only thing inevitable is that if crypto currencies becime mainstream it won't be bitcoin

I run http://www.reddit.com/r/gameofmoney,
,
a subreddit dedicated to pursuing game theory, finance, behavior, and cryptocurrencies. 
 
I have been criticized repeatedly for being too bullish on bitcoin, and sometimes people try to hold my past experiences against me, but these are dismissible trolls.  Bottom line, I formally studied computer science, and have pursued psychology and the stock market for years now.  And I can clearly see the future of crypto. 

Those of us who grew up in the nineties and watched the internet disrupt the world have seen it before.  Both the internet and bitcoin are and were unwanted communication juggernauts by those who were unprepared for them.   
 
The funny thing is, the ones who fought hardest against the internet were the ones who faced a loss of power due to it.  Newspapers, the RIAA, and others who acted as gatekeepers of information hated the thought they would be replaced with sites like this one.  They hated the idea that people would freely share information without them, including news, songs, ideas, etc. 
 
We aren't out of that evolution yet and are still seeing the explosion of this concept.  Governments are still reeling from the realities of a full blown information age where they have to astroturf and manipulate information instead of outright controlling it. 
 

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Enter bitcoin and cryptocurrency.   
 
Except it disrupts money, not communication. 
 
We saw it happen as we grew up, and we tried to tell the 'adults'.  "The internet will change everything!  In the future..." and we got a fucking pat on the head and were told to stop tying up the god damn phone lines with those noises. 
 
To be fair, most of us were just trying to download naked women line by line anyway, but we still saw the possibilities and future of the technology. 
 
"I'll wait for bitcoin 2.0" 
 
Just like you're waiting for internet 2.0, right?  Consensus and first to market are powerful, especially for decentralized technology.  The reason MySpace went the way of the dodo is because it was a centralized system that was replaced by a *better* centralized system, Facebook. 
 
Bitcoin as a store of value and information won't be replaced.  It can be complimented by other crypto, which is why I also believe in Dogecoin, but it won't be replaced any time soon.  Every day that blockchain ledger exists it grows more valuable.  I recently embedded a poem and declaration in it and that will persist for the rest of time.  That's how powerful the blockchain is. 
 
And trolls, haters, and PR firms hired to disrupt bitcoin online would have you believe that in the future it will go to zero.  **No**.  It cannot.  Math and psychology won't allow that. 
 
It already has too strong of a foothold and its viral nature is causing it to explode like a meme, the same way that other innovations in finance have exploded in popularity.  The progression is clear: 
 
Trade & Barter -> Money -> Banking -> Interest -> Bonds -> Stocks -> Derivatives -> Cryptocurrency     
 

---

 
All roads lead to cryptocurrency, and whether you like it or not, it's coming and it will change everything.  You can't fight an idea this strong, and the only solution is to adapt.  We learned the hard way we couldn't fight the internet... will those in power really be so stupid this time as well? 
 
Fortunes will rise with the rise of cryptos, same as any other disruptive technology.  And I'm going to be there, on board the train as we head to space.  I've watched from the sidelines as bitcoin soared and been that hater who said, "This is stupid" but what I really wished deep down was that I hadn't been such a doubter to begin with and had gotten on the train earlier. 
 
Well no more.  That's why I'm ferociously pro-crypto now.  I studied computer science for many years so I know the technology is sound.  I have studied psychology for many more so I understand the mindset of people and why adoption curves happen (and how the only way to beat them is to get on board with promising new ideas quickly while they are still 'dumb'), and I understand the internet because I've lived through the rise of it. 
 
This is wisdom folks.  This is the Game of Money.  And crypto is going to be a winner.